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  • #18,921
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:14pm Apr 8, 2016 2:14pm
well I think it is time for me to say goodbye. I posted a few days ago about my success but I have hit self destruct again!! Clearly I don't have the right psychological setup for this business.

I would say it has been fun (which I guess it has been at times) but in truth taking all into account it is painful really.

I wish you all the best in your future trading.
  • #18,922
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:15pm Apr 8, 2016 2:15pm
I didn't do much today, I'm wary of Frydays so I tend not to push trades. I was expecting a fade coming into today so I was in no rush to get into a long. By the time price started dumping I was really put off from all the chop. Anyway here's what I took today:

YM - I shorted YM at short term structure from the overnight session. It went 15pts in my favor then I moved my stop to b/e, where I ultimately got taken out. I was thinking of re-entering however the 2 large range bars threw me off so I decided to stay out. Price did end up reaching target so this is bittersweet for me as it wasn't a loss however I was correct in my expectation.

ES - I shorted ES also at short term structure from the overnight session. Price tested this supply zone and 50% for the second time and got rejected at the same place, 2044.25. There was good rotation down on the first test and then even bigger rotation down on the second test. I got hosed on the entry a bit but this still ended up being a profitable trade.
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  • #18,923
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:16pm Apr 8, 2016 2:16pm
Quoting Wolves77
went long at blue arrow short term order flow was bullish (dotted lines) long term expectation (slightly off screen) was a NSH, the bears were decreasing in momentum, and price was holding in the golden zone, which was also an area of structure. ah well, shitty week all told, 8 trades, 8 losses. might leave it at one trade for today and hope things turn around next week. {image}
Personally I think that you we're exceptionally unlucky in that trade, there was nothing wrong with the entry but we know even the best trades have a possible 'probability of loss' which under this system is about 20% could have been a stop hunt
  • #18,924
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:17pm Apr 8, 2016 2:17pm
So here's a question - how many of you out there will re-enter a position if you get stopped out right away? What are your rules regarding re-entries?
  • #18,925
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:31pm Apr 8, 2016 2:31pm
Quoting PipTrendz
well I think it is time for me to say goodbye. I posted a few days ago about my success but I have hit self destruct again!! Clearly I don't have the right psychological setup for this business. I would say it has been fun (which I guess it has been at times) but in truth taking all into account it is painful really. I wish you all the best in your future trading.
Hey man, why don't you post up the charts of your trades and we can all take a collective look and see what happened?

I understand you doubting yourself after some rough waters, there isn't a trader out there who hasn't gotten down on himself multiple times throughout this journey, but I don't think that you should walk away from trading unless that's seriously 100% what you want to do. If you have the desire to be a profitable trader but you don't think it's possible after your latest speedbump then I think you should take some time off to get some fresh air and a fresh mind then get back in the saddle. Analyze where you went wrong, write down ways to correct your issue(s) and then go from there.

I realize right now you might feel defeated but making important, long term decisions while in a heightened emotional state is never a good idea.
  • #18,926
  • Apr 8, 2016 9:09pm Apr 8, 2016 9:09pm
Quoting stavrogijn
{quote} I want to try say something about your trades, too. Trade1: This is the trade you panic-exited, right? What a pity! I like this trade a lot. With expectation. From a good area. And a beautiful candle to take it with, very decisive, never traded above its opening and the previous candle. Just a very big candle, which is not great for our R/R, but not a problem imo. Beforehand there was an increase in volatility. The candles got larger for both sides and the bulls were able to drive price higher, also there was some rejection to the downside....
thanks for your input. I've been working hard at getting better at reading PA breakdowns for counter trend. still counter trend are 50/50 for me. mostly I find my stops to close and they can be painful (like the one I took which went immediately against me but reversed)
  • #18,927
  • Apr 8, 2016 9:45pm Apr 8, 2016 9:45pm
Quoting jmezz
So here's a question - how many of you out there will re-enter a position if you get stopped out right away? What are your rules regarding re-entries?
this ones tough for me as well. I often find that I enter only to be taken out and then price reverse. So what is it?? are my stops to close or was my entry too early? Still working on it so I'll have to get back to you on that. haha

Now I'm not saying I'm right. But these are my thoughts on re-entries;

Why did you get hit in the first place? Was your entry wrong, was your analysis wrong, or was your stops wrong? what did recent price action tell you? I'll tell you in my personal situation, most of the time, I was either to early or my stops were to tight. Mostly because of increased volatility.

you got to quickly reassess your situation. It kind of sucks cause times working against you.... or is it? Anyway, If I got hit, I would need some kind of signal of strength that supports my position. Instant rejection (look for follow up) or S/T nsh/nsl. some kind of strength. Indecision is not good enough in my opinion. So you'll have to rely on your bar by bar interpretation.

this seems kind of vague but honestly every situation has to be handled individual. Hopefully someone has a better answer. maybe post the situation you were thinking of and we can collectively analyze.
  • #18,928
  • Apr 8, 2016 10:04pm Apr 8, 2016 10:04pm
Quoting Wolves77
{quote} hey mack, yeah i was getting used to fxcm and placed a trade or two just to see how things worked, forgot about it, then about 2 days later wondered why there was a fluctuating p/l . i hadn't set any stops/limits, so closed it out for a loss, this is also why it says average time duration per trade was 45 mins. in reality it was more like 5 mins, but that two day trade bumped up the average time massively. catching up with the thread it seems your doing pretty well, which is great to see, how are things going for you at the minute,...
Thinks are going good. slowly getting better. I'm happy with my analysis part. Usually I'm spot on. My psychology is my worst enemy but working on it. I'm just trying to make one less mistake everyday. right now , my competitiveness is working against me. It drives me to be a hard worker and motivates me to improve but it also as its limitations. like fear and anger. Fear of losing and going tilt when losing. I don't like to lose

At least I've controlled hope. I don't move my stops anymore. currently working on taking stops earlier tho, I'm gaining confidence in my ability to close my position early especially when the trades working against me.

going tilt is my biggest weakness now. Usually things are going great then I get hit with a loss or two only to watch them turn then my decision making ability is compromised. working on resetting or walking away for the day. Its amazing how one day can effect your equity curve.
  • #18,929
  • Apr 8, 2016 10:11pm Apr 8, 2016 10:11pm
Quoting PipTrendz
well I think it is time for me to say goodbye. I posted a few days ago about my success but I have hit self destruct again!! Clearly I don't have the right psychological setup for this business. I would say it has been fun (which I guess it has been at times) but in truth taking all into account it is painful really. I wish you all the best in your future trading.
Hey, have you thought about switching to a higher time frame? The way you've posted about your trading habits reminds me of what I was trying to do originally-- jump in and out of trades during the day when I could snatch some time for the charts away from other work, life, and things. I had some successes along with losses but it was making me a nervous wreck and so the normal frustrations of trading would hit harder than I think they needed to.

I've been a happier and calmer trader since I took Mr. Pip's suggestion and switched to a higher time frame. Having some dedicated undistracted time slots for trading where you can really focus can help a lot with psychology, imo.
  • #18,930
  • Apr 8, 2016 10:52pm Apr 8, 2016 10:52pm
Quoting PipTrendz
well I think it is time for me to say goodbye. I posted a few days ago about my success but I have hit self destruct again!! Clearly I don't have the right psychological setup for this business. I would say it has been fun (which I guess it has been at times) but in truth taking all into account it is painful really. I wish you all the best in your future trading.
Please read my last post....

Very rarely does trading come naturally. sure you get the beginners that run in, show a few weeks of profit, then pow! reality sets in. This is a tough game. Being constantly profitable is just that a habit. You got to work at it. It takes time but you need to review every trade and analyze what you did wrong. Was it the process? was it you? Or did things just not work out? what could you have done better. I got 3 X 4" binders of printed trading days that I filter through. 90% of it is what I did wrong.

This is some complicated stuff. In probably the most competitive industry out there. Using historical macro and micro economic activity to evaluate probabilities of future impact on an investment vehicle. Shit doesn't sound easy to me. sure looks easy when you draw a box and a few arrows tho.

Sorry, if this is turning into a pep talk but I know your psychological situation and jmezz is right. take a step back. recollect. reevaluate your goals. Trading is not for everyone.

Jason stapleton had a great story about arguing politics with a fellow soldier and wanted to get his opinion. He responded, " I dont care." Well Jason was upset at his answer. How could you not care? These idiots in Washington are about to make decisions that are going to greatly effect your life.
His response to that was, " You know why I dont care? Because I'm a winner. and you know what winners do?"
Jason responded, " what?
"They Win"

Winners win.

I'm sorry if Jason gets angry for me using that story but this story has had great positive impact in my life.
  • #18,931
  • Apr 9, 2016 1:08am Apr 9, 2016 1:08am
Quoting Snumigol
Hello traders, is it good idea to use PA for entrys? I dont feel confident with enties using bar by bar
it something you have to work on. it takes time to get a good feel for it.
  • #18,932
  • Apr 9, 2016 3:56am Apr 9, 2016 3:56am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Thinks are going good. slowly getting better. I'm happy with my analysis part. Usually I'm spot on. My psychology is my worst enemy but working on it. I'm just trying to make one less mistake everyday. right now , my competitiveness is working against me. It drives me to be a hard worker and motivates me to improve but it also as its limitations. like fear and anger. Fear of losing and going tilt when losing. I don't like to lose At least I've controlled hope. I don't move my stops anymore. currently working on taking stops earlier...
these may help:
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Discipline 5 Mental Fitness For Traders.pdf   485 KB | 597 downloads
File Type: pdf EmotionFreeTradingBook.pdf   484 KB | 662 downloads
  • #18,933
  • Edited 5:21am Apr 9, 2016 4:55am | Edited 5:21am
Quoting jmezz
So here's a question - how many of you out there will re-enter a position if you get stopped out right away? What are your rules regarding re-entries?
Depends on my mood. In your chart (situation), I would not have entered again due to the candles (it would have worked out, but live it is difficult to predict).

I had a case where I re-entered 2 times, because price came always back and hit my protected entry. In this situation I told myself Damian's sentence "do we need to change our expectation,.....NO". But ok, was not often until now. Most of the time, I let go and searched a new entry somewhere else.
  • #18,934
  • Edited 8:19am Apr 9, 2016 4:57am | Edited 8:19am
Quoting PipTrendz
well I think it is time for me to say goodbye. I posted a few days ago about my success but I have hit self destruct again!! Clearly I don't have the right psychological setup for this business. I would say it has been fun (which I guess it has been at times) but in truth taking all into account it is painful really. I wish you all the best in your future trading.
Hi PipTrendz,

sorry to hear that.

Maybe it would help, if we post setups which we intend to take (confidence and confirmation), especially with a higher time frame (less stress). Hence, you could first do your own analysis and compare and finally decide to take or not and you would know that there are more people in the same boat (in good times and in bad times).

I personally prefer a lower time frame, but there are days where everything goes very fast (hard to take fast decision) and where it is hard to get into the swing of the price (hope you know what I mean). These days, I should not trade, but ok easy to say and hard to follow. I have for example more problems to properly manage a short trade (entry,...).

I admire fellows here which trade high TF (1H, 4H, Daily,...), because I do not have the patience to wait that long and I do not know how they manage such trades (moves take long to happen versus when to enter, adjust, exit, candle formation in middle of the night,...).
  • #18,935
  • Apr 9, 2016 7:37am Apr 9, 2016 7:37am
May I ask a favour here of any trader using a 233 tick chart on either YM or EURUSD to post a picture of the last few hours of fridays trading day? I have found a range bar chart but the source code/parameters are different than what you are all using and I am trying to replicate a 233 tick chart and need a picture for comparison thanks in advance
  • #18,936
  • Edited 8:33am Apr 9, 2016 8:13am | Edited 8:33am
Quoting Ren1058
May I ask a favour here of any trader using a 233 tick chart on either YM or EURUSD to post a picture of the last few hours of fridays trading day? I have found a range bar chart but the source code/parameters are different than what you are all using and I am trying to replicate a 233 tick chart and need a picture for comparison thanks in advance
I am not sure what you mean by "last few hours of fridays trading day", if you mean classical market hours like 09.00am to 06.00pm or something else.

The YM chart is supposed to represent a 233 tickchart of the whole day. I say supposed, because I use MT4 and a conversion indicator.

The second is for E/U (second half of the day).

Hope it helps.
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  • #18,937
  • Apr 9, 2016 9:24am Apr 9, 2016 9:24am
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} I am not sure what you mean by "last few hours of fridays trading day", if you mean classical market hours like 09.00am to 06.00pm or something else. The YM chart is supposed to represent a 233 tickchart of the whole day. I say supposed, because I use MT4 and a conversion indicator. The second is for E/U (second half of the day). Hope it helps. {image} {image}

Thats what I'm after thank you
  • #18,938
  • Apr 9, 2016 12:19pm Apr 9, 2016 12:19pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} this ones tough for me as well. I often find that I enter only to be taken out and then price reverse. So what is it?? are my stops to close or was my entry too early? Still working on it so I'll have to get back to you on that. haha Now I'm not saying I'm right. But these are my thoughts on re-entries; Why did you get hit in the first place? Was your entry wrong, was your analysis wrong, or was your stops wrong? what did recent price action tell you? I'll tell you in my personal situation, most of the time, I was either to early or my stops...
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Depends on my mood. In your chart (situation), I would not have entered again due to the candles (it would have worked out, but live it is difficult to predict). I had a case where I re-entered 2 times, because price came always back and hit my protected entry. In this situation I told myself Damian's sentence "do we need to change our expectation,.....NO". But ok, was not often until now. Most of the time, I let go and searched a new entry somewhere else.
Thank you for your replies guys.

It was my trade on YM posted earlier on this page that made me question what others do. And now that I've had some time to peruse the charts I definitely see a phenomenon of sorts.

It seems that a lot of times at the start of new swings price will come back and retest the bar that starts the up or down move. Sometimes it's by one of the very next bars and other times price will come back to test it a bit later.

I've included a couple of screenshots to show what I'm referring to. The yellow arrows indicate the bar that started the succeeding move while the white lines show where price had come back later on to retest, although you can also see that in some instances it was in the very next few bars which did the retest.

Also interesting to note that in a lot of these scenarios I found that after the retest, price will then shoot off to continue the original suspected move. However, as with everything in trading this isn't what happens 100% of the time. But it's definitely something to keep an eye for.

I'm sure there's at least one reason for this, if not several explanations. The debate of which could probably be its own thread lol.

There are a couple of ways to utilize this information. Speaking for myself, I'm thinking that if I do get stopped out due to one of these retests I'll just have to wait and see if the overall expectation changes. If not, then a good tell looks to be the type of bar that forms from the retest. In the screenshots a lot of nice rotation bars form so entering off those is certainly an option. I don't mind paying up a bit in order to catch a move providing that there is no immediate structure and that the trade will still have room to run, and this way rather than sitting there back at my stopped entry I'm back in the move.

Also is the option to hold stop at the initial level and wait to see if price will pull one of these retests, only moving to b/e once price has done done the retest and moved in the expected direction. Con of this is that price could just continue past the retest and take you out.

These 2 methods are what I'm debating and will need to wait til market hours to put them into practice. I suppose I could try market replay but I've noticed that the price action is 'more choppy' than if it were real market hours.

Anyway, that's what I have so far. More comments welcome!
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  • #18,939
  • Apr 10, 2016 12:32am Apr 10, 2016 12:32am
Quoting Ren1058
{quote} these may help: {image} {image}
thanks ren
  • #18,940
  • Apr 10, 2016 12:50am Apr 10, 2016 12:50am
Quoting jmezz
{quote} {quote} Thank you for your replies guys. It was my trade on YM posted earlier on this page that made me question what others do. And now that I've had some time to peruse the charts I definitely see a phenomenon of sorts. It seems that a lot of times at the start of new swings price will come back and retest the bar that starts the up or down move. Sometimes it's by one of the very next bars and other times price will come back to test it a bit later. I've included a couple of screenshots to show what I'm referring to. The yellow arrows...
nice observation. I actually didn't notice it. I think I'll go back and see if this happens often.

Personally, and this is just speaking for myself, I like option 1. I hate seeing green pips turn into red pips. Some of the retests don't look to favorable. Maybe filter them out but saying only take immediate retests. I'm not sure. this might need more study. I'll get back to you. lol
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