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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #54,301
  • Apr 4, 2016 3:10am Apr 4, 2016 3:10am
Quoting fti
{quote} Ahhh Guilin, i have a friend there. Have you tried the anti cancer tea? i ever tried 1 type mushroom tea, make me high high. sups up all the nerves. Beats malaumeet hands down. the bitter in malaumeet is not even 30% of it. regards {image}
ah no...but tea very potent there.......Chinese really do tea justice......... I prefer a nice glass of wine...although was a bit of a tea jenny (with my gran)

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #54,302
  • Edited 8:28am Apr 4, 2016 7:35am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} ah no...but tea very potent there.......Chinese really do tea justice......... I prefer a nice glass of wine...although was a bit of a tea jenny (with my gran) Alex
noted.

I myself had been doing lots wine lately.
Keeps the heart working.
also ginseng wine and cold sake.
immune system in high alcohol in blood makes sterile environment keep the naughty bateria and viruses at bay.
These now my most feared enemies. so i give em no ground to set up camp.
They camp and i possiblly goner.

regards

yesterday i received a pleasant surprise.
They sneaked this song with my fuji-q fotograph.
was very nice. MayumiItsuwa she aged. still
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amongst other stuff.
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and of course.......
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  • #54,303
  • Apr 4, 2016 8:38am Apr 4, 2016 8:38am
fti,

may i ask, how much calculus math have you learn in your course of career?

was mechanical & geometrical maths something you looked into?
i have taken special interest in one of your post and thus is asking above questions.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #54,304
  • Edited 12:47pm Apr 5, 2016 12:05am | Edited 12:47pm
Quoting Jacque
fti, may i ask, how much calculus math have you learn in your course of career? was mechanical & geometrical maths something you looked into? i have taken special interest in one of your post and thus is asking above questions.
OK OK much maths.
mostly arithmetics.
profit- loss= earnings

The maths only shows me how control the variables get my desired enjoyments.
No maths no handles.
Just enough is OK. everyday they find new ways write more formulaes.
D1=D2?
after that gets very symbolic.

http://www.ebaumsworld.com/jokes/lit...-bitch/382544/

regards
  • #54,305
  • Edited 11:16am Apr 5, 2016 11:01am | Edited 11:16am
wow, lots arbi lessons.
i wait see when the hedging lessons.
eeeer also wait see if my name in panama. Is that the banana or coconuts islands.
ai ya this fti, panama la not banana. labuan.

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https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-repo...ax-keiser-897/


regards
  • #54,306
  • Apr 6, 2016 5:45am Apr 6, 2016 5:45am
Quoting fti
wow, lots arbi lessons. i wait see when the hedging lessons. eeeer also wait see if my name in panama. Is that the banana or coconuts islands. ai ya this fti, panama la not banana. labuan. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMTNT_BzkdA https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-repo...ax-keiser-897/ regards
FTI gone bananas... time for minions banana song then

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #54,307
  • Edited 2:01pm Apr 6, 2016 1:10pm | Edited 2:01pm
Quoting alexandria
{quote} FTI gone bananas... time for minions banana song then Alex
hahahahahahahahaha

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Amen.Thank you jesus for a laugh today. hahahahahaha best medicine.


regards
  • #54,308
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:21pm Apr 6, 2016 6:21pm
Good to see that everyone has gone bananas, finally. Trading is a lonely game. At least in casinos you get girls in your lap.
  • #54,309
  • Apr 7, 2016 6:57am Apr 7, 2016 6:57am
Quoting piccolo
Good to see that everyone has gone bananas, finally. Trading is a lonely game. At least in casinos you get girls in your lap.
hahahaha long time no see.

eeer why would you want to have girls in your lap when you are at the casinos?
I prefer have this.

regards
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  • #54,310
  • Apr 7, 2016 7:01am Apr 7, 2016 7:01am
bets down please.
no pointing.
bet finger pay finger.
we have cctv.

regards
  • #54,311
  • Edited 4:59am Apr 8, 2016 3:41am | Edited 4:59am
https://blogs.windows.com/buildingap...tu-on-windows/


cannoipical and microsoft is getting married.
uncock the champagne.

regards

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eeeeer your ass is exposed? someone watching at the windows while i bath?
hahahahaha mine oh yours.
make up your dang mind , buy or sell?
you buy and sell at my price. I already made spread. spread em baby M$. thanks nothing,,too wide.
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seems just cannot trust em. WHy do i want a system i don't trust?
would you marry someone you cannot trust and take em home? hahahaha some do. esp when is FREE.
I never believe in FREE. There just ain't no free LUNCHES.
In a capitalistic world, only buffets, no free lunches.
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  • #54,312
  • Apr 8, 2016 4:45am Apr 8, 2016 4:45am
what an ass.
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  • #54,313
  • Edited 5:57am Apr 8, 2016 5:00am | Edited 5:57am
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bunny!! , bring the plastic bags.

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  • #54,314
  • Edited 10:42am Apr 9, 2016 10:08am | Edited 10:42am
eeeeer plastic bags hor.
leave the body bags alone.

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  • #54,315
  • Edited 10:49am Apr 9, 2016 10:29am | Edited 10:49am
Quoting fti
{quote} OK OK much maths. mostly arithmetics. profit- loss= earnings The maths only shows me how control the variables get my desired enjoyments. No maths no handles. Just enough is OK. everyday they find new ways write more formulaes. D1=D2? after that gets very symbolic. http://www.ebaumsworld.com/jokes/lit...-bitch/382544/ regards
fti, in asking the qns d1=d2? there is already much deep maths in it involve probability and normal distribution. i guess u are jesting about only requiring simple math? i looked into the formula, i think the volatility input has much confusion. i see that in BSM, it is the 1SD of the ln return of a specific period measure of historical price. the period used should correspond to the maturity of the option in qns. infact, the volatility input changes as the maturity change. this volatility togther with the mean assumed from GBM of px movement in risk neutral world is used to standardize ln(exercise px/ current px) to get the probabilities from the normal distribution that stock px will exceed the exercise px at maturity. the risk neutral is how the risk free rate gets into the model. the i hope i got this correct.

there are much material out there using different ways to calculate the volatility input. some calculate absolute daily return and mutiply a factor of sqrt(365), some uses the 1SD of price as % of mean price as volatility. i think these are wrong.

since volatility input is such a headache, we should ignore coming up with the value and use the BSM to find implied vol instead. then from there we should calibrate the model to fit to market reality and look at strategies. these strategies should depend on our view and mkt condition. we can adjust exposure to all 5 greeks: gamma,delta,vol,theta,rho. the subordinates are just the partial derivatives of the 5 masters w.r.t to other parameters, for e.g. derivative of delta w.r.t to exercise and so on. how can all these be just simple arithmetic??


you show engine drawing. i not engine expert but there are some stuff i can understand i.e. heat exchanger, mass balance. indulge in me, i majored in process engineering so i can understand some stuff although it may be rusty since i didnt pursue a career in that path.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #54,316
  • Apr 9, 2016 10:45am Apr 9, 2016 10:45am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} fti, in asking the qns d1=d2? there is already much deep maths in it involve probability and normal distribution. i guess u are jesting about only requiring simple math? i looked into the formula, i think the volatility input has much confusion. i see that in BSM, it is the 1SD of the ln return of a specific period measure of historical price. the period used should correspond to the maturity of the option in qns. infact, the volatility input changes as the maturity change. this volatility togther with the mean assumed from GBM of px movement...
deep maths.
nonono.

NOW this IS deep maths.

regards
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  • #54,317
  • Apr 9, 2016 10:48am Apr 9, 2016 10:48am
deeper maths.

E=me2
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Click to Enlarge Name: rs-72-rocket-engine.jpg Size: 47 KB
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  • #54,318
  • Apr 9, 2016 10:54am Apr 9, 2016 10:54am
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hahahahahahahaha

eeeer where park my wheelchair please.

regards
  • #54,319
  • Edited 11:18am Apr 9, 2016 11:04am | Edited 11:18am
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  • #54,320
  • Apr 9, 2016 11:51am Apr 9, 2016 11:51am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} how can all these be just simple arithmetic?? you show engine drawing. i not engine expert but there are some stuff i can understand i.e. heat exchanger, mass balance. indulge in me, i majored in process engineering so i can understand some stuff although it may be rusty since i didnt pursue a career in that path.
there you go.

if you understand the basics , is a walk in the park.
eeeer if you cannot , then take a trip to the moon.
or pay a master mios to learn.

i profit shared with em, so they taught me.
But i know things they not know. because i understood, mostly they didn't.
every sifu taught me something. i learned. they didn't want learn from each other.
cannot see the bra and know the real size. Some smart alec thinks they can. hahahahahahaha

In the real world, fishing is not done with rod and line.


regards
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