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EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

  • #3,121
  • Apr 8, 2016 7:20am Apr 8, 2016 7:20am
trading congestion zones much easyer then what i do.

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  • #3,122
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:13pm Apr 8, 2016 2:13pm
interesting move before close, might gap next week.
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  • #3,123
  • Apr 9, 2016 3:30am Apr 9, 2016 3:30am
weekly chart
When i catch a nice short position i think i may hold on to it.
current congestion area may be retested, otherwise i will short at the top like i posted before.

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  • #3,124
  • Apr 9, 2016 3:45am Apr 9, 2016 3:45am
Quoting longshot_nl
weekly chart When i catch a nice short position i think i may hold on to it. current congestion area may be retested, otherwise i will short at the top like i posted before. {image}
there is no indication of reversal as of yet, so not sure about that one.

looking at the monthly, it can do 50% of the swing easily @ 8300.
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  • #3,125
  • Apr 9, 2016 8:17am Apr 9, 2016 8:17am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} there is no indication of reversal as of yet, so not sure about that one. looking at the monthly, it can do 50% of the swing easily @ 8300. {image}
To me there is an indication.
I said this before i noticed the fib and abcd pattern:

Quoting longshot_nl
a chance for bears... {image}
p.s. draw your fib from the top to the bottom of a wave. Don't just start somewhere you like.
  • #3,126
  • Apr 9, 2016 9:38am Apr 9, 2016 9:38am
.837 is what I am watching for a reversal.
  • #3,127
  • Apr 9, 2016 10:28am Apr 9, 2016 10:28am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} To me there is an indication. I said this before i noticed the fib and abcd pattern: {quote} p.s. draw your fib from the top to the bottom of a wave. Don't just start somewhere you like.
allrighty ))) If you think that by putting some random pattern on the chart this will make EG reverse then you are in for a major dissapointment.

Here's EW review on weekly EG, this will go beyond 8300 before any meaningful reversal.

Fundumentally I do hope that you realize that GU is more weak than EU until at least Brexit referendum, which means until june at least. So how do you see EG reversing with those fundies atm? EU will remain stronger than GU for at least another 2 months, therefore EG will not reverse.

Bottomline: trade with the trend and stop chasing imaginery patterns which are simply not there.
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  • #3,128
  • Edited 2:23pm Apr 9, 2016 1:59pm | Edited 2:23pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} allrighty ))) If you think that by putting some random pattern on the chart this will make EG reverse then you are in for a major dissapointment. Here's EW review on weekly EG, this will go beyond 8300 before any meaningful reversal. Fundumentally I do hope that you realize that GU is more weak than EU until at least Brexit referendum, which means until june at least. So how do you see EG reversing with those fundies atm? EU will remain stronger than GU for at least another 2 months, therefore EG will not reverse. Bottomline: trade with...
Not interested in arguing.
There are some pros and cons to my view. I like to see a spike before reversal, there isn't any. But there are more indications i find that a reversal may occur which i won't go in to. Imaginary to you or not.
But its about risk vs reward. It may continue or it may reverse, if the reward outweighs the risk with a high factor it is a good trade even if lost.
Good luck.
  • #3,129
  • Apr 9, 2016 11:09pm Apr 9, 2016 11:09pm
looking at the highlighted congestion before the bulls gained control, I'm not surprised this pair is going north so strongly.
busted north of both ascending TL options and weekly shows the nice dance between them before the breakout the other week.

Blue channel in play and red weekly retest above
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #3,130
  • Apr 9, 2016 11:30pm Apr 9, 2016 11:30pm
I'd be tempted to buy off the brown and shoot for the confluence retest point above at 161.8 resistance if I traded this pair
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #3,131
  • Apr 9, 2016 11:45pm Apr 9, 2016 11:45pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} allrighty ))) If you think that by putting some random pattern on the chart this will make EG reverse then you are in for a major dissapointment. Here's EW review on weekly EG, this will go beyond 8300 before any meaningful reversal. Fundumentally I do hope that you realize that GU is more weak than EU until at least Brexit referendum, which means until june at least. So how do you see EG reversing with those fundies atm? EU will remain stronger than GU for at least another 2 months, therefore EG will not reverse. Bottomline: trade with...
Brexit is at June 23rd.Plenty of time for market squeezing longs and plenty of time talking heads dropping statements.
In greater skim of things UK will remain in EU.Big business wants it and they will lobby for it.
I am short bias and do have running ATM
Targeting 77 1st
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,132
  • Apr 9, 2016 11:48pm Apr 9, 2016 11:48pm
Euro is strong after monthly finally closed above 23 fib
I will be looking to go long on the retest with targets above for a post Draghi correction
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #3,133
  • Apr 10, 2016 8:31am Apr 10, 2016 8:31am
I just had a look at the daily chart, it usually helps me to clarify the picture.

Trend is clearly positive and bullish for EURGBP.

Despite this, I would say that this week if prices stay below 0.8095, there are good chances to go down below 0.80 and probably test 0,7950 / 60 where I would close my shorts if I were short and I would buy if I were flat (or add to my longs if already long from lower levels).
Even with such a case, the possibility to make new highs are extremely high, and I would not chase a top too soon.

In case this week price tend to stay above 0.8095, we will see new high even sooner than expected.
  • #3,134
  • Apr 11, 2016 1:11am Apr 11, 2016 1:11am
it broke down.
i would short at a retest of this line in the congestion area.
edit: might not happen.

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  • #3,135
  • Apr 11, 2016 1:56am Apr 11, 2016 1:56am
The E/G fall was very strong - but maybe there could be some potential for a pullback / correction now. What others do think?

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  • #3,136
  • Apr 11, 2016 3:23am Apr 11, 2016 3:23am
Quoting longshot_nl
weekly chart When i catch a nice short position i think i may hold on to it. current congestion area may be retested, otherwise i will short at the top like i posted before. {image}
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} there is no indication of reversal as of yet, so not sure about that one. looking at the monthly, it can do 50% of the swing easily @ 8300. {image}
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} allrighty ))) If you think that by putting some random pattern on the chart this will make EG reverse then you are in for a major dissapointment. Here's EW review on weekly EG, this will go beyond 8300 before any meaningful reversal. Fundumentally I do hope that you realize that GU is more weak than EU until at least Brexit referendum, which means until june at least. So how do you see EG reversing with those fundies atm? EU will remain stronger than GU for at least another 2 months, therefore EG will not reverse. Bottomline: trade with...
oh please tell us more.

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  • #3,137
  • Apr 11, 2016 3:30am Apr 11, 2016 3:30am
Quoting longshot_nl
trading congestion zones much easyer then what i do. {image}
its at congestion again. thats why i posted it now

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  • #3,138
  • Apr 11, 2016 6:17am Apr 11, 2016 6:17am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} {quote} {quote} oh please tell us more. {image}
any uptick in the 0,8025 / 40 area can be sold today, but tomorrow with GBP important data release, the story migth be different

I took profit of my shorts today, and wait for tomorrow data to have a new look at the whole picture
  • #3,139
  • Apr 12, 2016 2:52am Apr 12, 2016 2:52am
CPI data moderately positive for sterling, with the cross gently going down.

I would use weakness to buy, expecting a test of area 0,7960 / 40.
in that case, I think those levels should hold and bring new strenght, possibily later this week or next week.

I sold around 0,8090 and 0.8073, took profit yesterday.
Small short today before the data at 0,8026 closed too early, but profit is profit.

Now I wait for more weakness to initiate a long position
  • #3,140
  • Apr 12, 2016 3:13am Apr 12, 2016 3:13am
some thoughts of mine.

30m chart
retest of congestion area might be a place to short.

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4h chart.
this could cause a bump.

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last thought on weekly chart...
looking at last bear wave. if this wave has the same slope which it might we may get more chances to short.
no reason to chase.
longer term i much rather would like a long position though

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