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USD/RUB

  • #561
  • Mar 3, 2016 3:14am Mar 3, 2016 3:14am
Quoting stylinex
If oil prices recover so will the Ruble but if they tank then so will the ruble
more or less summarizes any discussion on the Ruble as things stand at the moment
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #562
  • Mar 4, 2016 1:25am Mar 4, 2016 1:25am
I am very pleased what there are some fellow-traders interested in USD/RUB. Nice, but, truly speaking, the pair is very interesting to be traded.

Below there is a chart of USD/RUB for those who is interested in.

Best
D.P.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-04_12-19-20.png Size: 73 KB
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  • #563
  • Mar 4, 2016 1:29am Mar 4, 2016 1:29am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
I am very pleased what there are some fellow-traders interested in USD/RUB. Nice, but, truly speaking, the pair is very interesting to be traded. Below there is a chart of USD/RUB for those who is interested in. Best D.P. {image}
thank you. What are these lines? And you are waiting there to buy or this is your TP in the short trade? I see the pair testing my lines at 69.32 currently, before going to 65.90 the 200 DMA.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #564
  • Mar 4, 2016 1:31am Mar 4, 2016 1:31am
Quoting manosk
{quote} thank you. What are these lines? And you are waiting there to buy or this is your TP in the short trade? I see the pair testing my lines at 69.32 currently, before going to 65.90 the 200 DMA.
If it breaks the 200 DMA, then the big hurdle to the downside is 63.80. But if it breaks that then next stop is below 52.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #565
  • Edited 10:35am Mar 4, 2016 1:45am | Edited 10:35am
Quoting manosk
{quote} thank you. What are these lines? And you are waiting there to buy or this is your TP in the short trade? I see the pair testing my lines at 69.32 currently, before going to 65.90 the 200 DMA.
Do not be...

1. As for lines, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post8222476
2. As for 200 MA - for sure, there is a chance to be at the level of 65-68. I am about to buy at this point.
3. I hardly believe that these levels might be broken through, but I would really want to be lower, for exapmle, at 60-61.
4. Prices of the 52 area are not comfortable for our CB, they do not give them to be lower.

Edited. 4 hours before week's ending.

Technically we have a breakthrough.
Below we can find daily and weekly confirmation charts.

The targets above mentioned is supposed to be valid abd might be hit further.
They are 65-68 and 60-61 rub/usd.

Best
D.P.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-04_Daily.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-04_Weekly.png Size: 50 KB
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  • #566
  • Mar 11, 2016 2:46am Mar 11, 2016 2:46am
Quoting manosk
{quote} thank you. What are these lines? And you are waiting there to buy or this is your TP in the short trade? I see the pair testing my lines at 69.32 currently, before going to 65.90 the 200 DMA.
For anyone involved in a short USD/RUB please note that one of my targets is reached at 69.58 (it was 69.32 and ascending as mentioned in the previous post) on the daily chart. If it closes below 69.58 then next target will be 67.40s on the 4H chart.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #567
  • Mar 11, 2016 2:53am Mar 11, 2016 2:53am
Some very nice Ruble gains this last month with oil. As long as oil prices rise so shall the Ruble. If oil prices come tanking back down then so will the Ruble. Oil prices though should recover to around $50 by summer time unless the economy gets worse and the shit hits the fans
  • #568
  • Mar 11, 2016 2:58am Mar 11, 2016 2:58am
Quoting stylinex
Some very nice Ruble gains this last month with oil. As long as oil prices rise so shall the Ruble. If oil prices come tanking back down then so will the Ruble. Oil prices though should recover to around $50 by summer time unless the economy gets worse and the shit hits the fans
Agreed. I believe between empty talks about output freeze and reality kicking in they created a bottom which should lead to $50. Critical for short term sentiment will be whatever comes out of the March 20th meeting, not so much from an definite action perspective but more like bridging the differences between OPEC and non-OPEC members.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #569
  • Mar 12, 2016 4:06am Mar 12, 2016 4:06am
Some new pictures
One chart confirms the other chart.
Daily chart is black
4H chart is white.

Source - https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/USD...a-po-urovnyam/

Best
D.P.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-11_21-46-28.png Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-11_21-45-37.png Size: 109 KB
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  • #570
  • Mar 12, 2016 4:30am Mar 12, 2016 4:30am
Quoting manosk
{quote} For anyone involved in a short USD/RUB please note that one of my targets is reached at 69.58 (it was 69.32 and ascending as mentioned in the previous post) on the daily chart. If it closes below 69.58 then next target will be 67.40s on the 4H chart.
Dr. P I agree with you on the 67.40s area both on the daily and 4H chart. They will be very important support.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #571
  • Mar 12, 2016 9:44am Mar 12, 2016 9:44am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Dr. P I agree with you on the 67.40s area both on the daily and 4H chart. They will be very important support.
Look at how the price unfolds. I see the momentum is rising.

Best
D.P.
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  • #572
  • Mar 14, 2016 1:37am Mar 14, 2016 1:37am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Look at how the price unfolds. I see the momentum is rising. Best D.P.
If the momentum is rising you think that the support will be penetrated?
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #573
  • Mar 14, 2016 9:47am Mar 14, 2016 9:47am
Quoting manosk
{quote} If the momentum is rising you think that the support will be penetrated?
it might be hit.

D.P.
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  • #574
  • Mar 18, 2016 6:35am Mar 18, 2016 6:35am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Dr. P I agree with you on the 67.40s area both on the daily and 4H chart. They will be very important support.
Whoever is following the short USD/RUB trade: I closed my short position at 67.50. Waiting for a clearer picture as I expect a bounce but I feel things are a bit murky so I stay out at the moment. If we see the expected pullback in oil then I will reenter the short trade, hopefully at around 70.20 or so targeting 63
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #575
  • Mar 21, 2016 5:17am Mar 21, 2016 5:17am
Quote
Whoever is following the short USD/RUB trade: I closed my short position at 67.50. Waiting for a clearer picture as I expect a bounce but I feel things are a bit murky so I stay out at the moment. If we see the expected pullback in oil then I will reenter the short trade, hopefully at around 70.20 or so targeting 63

Would you mind sharing your current view manosk?
  • #576
  • Mar 21, 2016 5:29am Mar 21, 2016 5:29am
Quoting shnackattack
{quote} Would you mind sharing your current view manosk?
My current view is the same as expressed on Friday. I am flat and I wouldn't take a long position in the cross USD/RUB, primarily because I am longer term bearish and secondly because this is a carry trade on the short side which means on the long side it will be a very expensive trade. I expect oil to continue dropping and USD to strengthen for the next days so USDRUB will rise and first target is 70.20. Depending where the drop in oil ends, at $37.75 or at $35.50, we might even see USDRUB back to 73. I would say that it is more likely to go to 71.70 and resume the downside, but it can happen that it can go up to 73. That would be my extreme expectation. I will start shorting again at 71.20.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #577
  • Mar 21, 2016 5:41am Mar 21, 2016 5:41am
Quote
My current view is the same as expressed on Friday. I am flat and I wouldn't take a long position in the cross USD/RUB, primarily because I am longer term bearish and secondly because this is a carry trade on the short side which means on the long side it will be a very expensive trade. I expect oil to continue dropping and USD to strengthen for the next days so USDRUB will rise and first target is 70.20. Depending where the drop in oil ends, at $37.75 or at $35.50, we might even see USDRUB back to 73. I would say that it is more likely to go to...

Thank you!
  • #578
  • Mar 31, 2016 12:14am Mar 31, 2016 12:14am
Quoting shnackattack
{quote} Thank you!
Due to recent developments in the correlation between oil price and USD/RUB I revise my current view as to entering a new short in USD/RUB. Considering that oil has corrected substantially already from the high of 41.40 I dont expect USD/RUB to rise anymore to the levels previously stated unless there is a fundamental shift that will require a reassessment of the whole picture. Assuming that the current downward move in oil halts at around 35.45 (current price 37.07) and another leg up starts that will take oil to new highs, I do not expect USD/RUB to rise higher than 69.80. I would most probably enter already short at 69.20.

Remember that in a few days the oil producers meeting will take place in Doha which will certainly increase volatility.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #579
  • Mar 31, 2016 2:19am Mar 31, 2016 2:19am
As oil dropped it dragged the Ruble right down with it.
  • #580
  • Edited 1:38pm Apr 8, 2016 1:25pm | Edited 1:38pm
Some charts on USD/RUB

The last week's close is lower than the previous week's close.
So I am still bearish.
The next week will show.

Best
D.P.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-04-08_23-20-17.png Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-04-08_23-21-09.png Size: 66 KB
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