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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #16,121
  • Apr 8, 2016 11:17am Apr 8, 2016 11:17am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} What's the significance of that level?
2/24 low thats a huge swing level that I'm gonna guess people will want to see
Also if the count is correct and we just finished the 3rd wave of this down swing then the correction should prob get very near there
  • #16,122
  • Apr 8, 2016 11:19am Apr 8, 2016 11:19am
Quoting Geppy
OK, everyone... quick poll. I'm setting the over/under on today's close at 152.50 Who's taking the over and who's taking the under? I'll start, I'm taking the under. I'm biased though.
I'll say OVER (Above that number) too late in the day for them to break that lower shoulder. But who knows. Because shit happens I say they break that down on Monday though.
  • #16,123
  • Apr 8, 2016 11:24am Apr 8, 2016 11:24am
Quoting raiders
{quote} 2/24 low thats a huge swing level that I'm gonna guess people will want to see Also if the count is correct and we just finished the 3rd wave of this down swing then the correction should prob get very near there
Ah yes, I see it.

And maybe... you could argue that last night's test to 154.23 was high enough to qualify. Like trend lines, levels should be drawn with crayons, not pencils.
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  • #16,124
  • Apr 8, 2016 11:24am Apr 8, 2016 11:24am
Quoting maflip
{quote} I'll say OVER (Above that number) too late in the day for them to break that lower shoulder. But who knows. Because shit happens I say they break that down on Monday though.
Yep, it's Friday...

BUT, $SPY is looking pretty weak on this attempted rally today. If it goes negative...
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  • #16,125
  • Apr 8, 2016 11:30am Apr 8, 2016 11:30am
be patient and wait for price to come to you. short term correction has already began imo
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  • #16,126
  • Apr 8, 2016 11:31am Apr 8, 2016 11:31am
Even cadjpy have a bearish H&S pattern earlier. It's just the news changed the story.
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  • #16,127
  • Apr 8, 2016 11:47am Apr 8, 2016 11:47am
Heres a better shot...sorry was being lazy before.
Anyways, LOTS more down to go!! But you can get a better price to short from if you just sit and be patient. RSI is showing the wave has bottomed out as are the Stochs. The daily will tell the same story.

Price has passed the 1.618 thus we can conclude the down move was/is wave 3. Also the 2.618 just happens to fall very close to the channel bottom which will more likely than not act as at least temporary support since it has 2 times before.

A slight dip in price before more up correction would be expected on sunday as candle wicks will need to be set. Thats just my take on it
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  • #16,128
  • Apr 8, 2016 11:51am Apr 8, 2016 11:51am
Quoting raiders
Heres a better shot...sorry was being lazy before. Anyways, LOTS more down to go!! But you can get a better price to short from if you just sit and be patient. RSI is showing the wave has bottomed out as are the Stochs. The daily will tell the same story. Price has passed the 1.618 thus we can conclude the down move was/is wave 3. Also the 2.618 just happens to fall very close to the channel bottom which will more likely than not act as at least temporary support since it has 2 times before. A slight dip in price before more up correction would...
You might be right. But honestly, the beauty of having a trade that's literally now 700 pips in profit is that I don't care if it pops up another 100-200 pips because the reality is it might not.

And the trend is down. So... I hold, oh and add
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  • #16,129
  • Apr 8, 2016 11:54am Apr 8, 2016 11:54am
Also, if price is expected to correct and thus eat profits, nothing wrong with exiting and resetting new shorts at higher levels. BOJ is definitely going ape shit right now over yen prices. MOF has been warning the market for days now that he doesn't like what he's seeing. I truly believe he thinks a temp end to the run is near and thats why he's sitting on his hands. but its kinda crazy to hold anything over the weekend when dude has been firing off warning shots almost daily for the past week.
  • #16,130
  • Apr 8, 2016 11:58am Apr 8, 2016 11:58am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} You might be right. But honestly, the beauty of having a trade that's literally now 700 pips in profit is that I don't care if it pops up another 100-200 pips because the reality is it might not. And the trend is down. So... I hold, oh and add
no doubt about it. I could definitely be wrong. I go into most trades thinking theres a decent chance I'm wrong. but i also know that prices must correct and people must take profits and that will cause fluctuations in price.
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  • #16,131
  • Apr 8, 2016 12:08pm Apr 8, 2016 12:08pm
you guys remember this from school?
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  • #16,132
  • Apr 8, 2016 12:08pm Apr 8, 2016 12:08pm
Quoting raiders
Also, if price is expected to correct and thus eat profits, nothing wrong with exiting and resetting new shorts at higher levels. BOJ is definitely going ape shit right now over yen prices. MOF has been warning the market for days now that he doesn't like what he's seeing. I truly believe he thinks a temp end to the run is near and thats why he's sitting on his hands. but its kinda crazy to hold anything over the weekend when dude has been firing off warning shots almost daily for the past week.
I don't mean to be combative today, I mean it is Friday...

But really I have to disagree.

Taking profits with the plan to re-enter higher costs people sooooooo much money it's ridiculous. There are two reasons:

1) You don't know it's going to correct higher. Often times it doesn't and continues on its merry way. You end up re-entering, alright... lower/higher than you were previously in. You leave money on the table.

2) You have a TON of new decisions to make. Your #1 goal as a trader is to make as few decisions as possible because your success depends 100% on making GOOD decisions. So the fewer decisions you need to make, the better your odds are that you make good ones and not bad ones. Now you've put yourself in the position of entering a trade again which means you need to define your risk again, your stop loss, your target, etc. etc. etc.

But hey, your style is your style and what I do works for me and may not work for everyone.
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  • #16,133
  • Apr 8, 2016 12:11pm Apr 8, 2016 12:11pm
Quoting raiders
{quote} no doubt about it. I could definitely be wrong. I go into most trades thinking theres a decent chance I'm wrong. but i also know that prices must correct and people must take profits and that will cause fluctuations in price. {image}
We've seen a 258 pip correction off the lows already... just sayin'.
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  • #16,134
  • Apr 8, 2016 12:52pm Apr 8, 2016 12:52pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} We've seen a 258 pip correction off the lows already... just sayin'.
That means IF the equilibrium found 258 pips below is not short term and indeed turns out to be longer term then you are already down 258 pips while someone might be up 200 pips....just saying. As traders #1 goal is to minimize risks while searching for profits and those profits come while the market searches for price equilibrium. People are buying as other are selling. It's what creates a market and without buyers and sellers there is no market. Some traders trade longer term others shorter term. Not 1 style will work for everyone. But, the risks are huge in yen pairs right now and the market has shown it has found equilibrium even if it is short term. I do not believe it to be long term but given the risks at hand with the pairing not taking profits is worse than losing a few pips and having to reevaluate at a later time. The swing appears to have taken a breather and I don't believe that 200 pips is a correction given the move it has taken. But only time and the market will tell. Btw I don't think you are being combative at all. It's discussions like this that make us better as people and traders. I welcome the conversation and he criticism it helps me see clearer
  • #16,135
  • Apr 8, 2016 12:55pm Apr 8, 2016 12:55pm
Quoting raiders
{quote} That means IF the equilibrium found 258 pips below is not short term and indeed turns out to be longer term then you are already down 258 pips while someone might be up 200 pips....just saying.
I couldn't read any more after this. You clearly just don't get it.

Please tell, how much of this current move, the one that started from 161.70ish have you caught?
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  • #16,136
  • Apr 8, 2016 1:00pm Apr 8, 2016 1:00pm
Quoting raiders
{quote} . The swing appears to have taken a breather and I don't believe that 200 pips is a correction given the move it has taken. But only time and the market will tell.
Managed to read through most of it and saw this nugget.

It's been 258 pips (as noted above)... not 200.

You were arguing to sell at 154.70

That would represent about a 300 pips correction which is less than 50 pips more... so you consider 300 pips a correction here and not 258?

Seems strange.
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  • #16,137
  • Apr 8, 2016 1:55pm Apr 8, 2016 1:55pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Yep, it's Friday... BUT, $SPY is looking pretty weak on this attempted rally today. If it goes negative...
I think we could see continued JPY demand if the BOJ will not intervene. Markets are in risk-off mode and panic.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,138
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:10pm Apr 8, 2016 2:10pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I think we could see continued JPY demand if the BOJ will not intervene. Markets are in risk-off mode and panic.
Shhhh, Hickson.

Don't you know we need to see a correction first!!!!
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  • #16,139
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:15pm Apr 8, 2016 2:15pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Shhhh, Hickson. Don't you know we need to see a correction first!!!!
Maybe ... but sometimes, markets do not correct how we want to. When I was less experienced, I often noted I was waiting for corrections that never would come ... then on the other hand, one should not chase it ... it is very hard to see the difference and takes years for one to make the right decisions.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,140
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:20pm Apr 8, 2016 2:20pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Managed to read through most of it and saw this nugget. It's been 258 pips (as noted above)... not 200. You were arguing to sell at 154.70 That would represent about a 300 pips correction which is less than 50 pips more... so you consider 300 pips a correction here and not 258? Seems strange.
And yes, I would, seeing as though it still hasnt given me reason to think the correction is over.

What seems strange is that you would allow a 30% chunk of profits to be eaten up. Thats not something id be willing to do especially after holding for so long. Every second in a trade there is risk and decisions that need to be made and evaluated. Also, I dont know about anyone else but if I had a pair turn 300 pips on me id be pretty pissed at the money i gave up. Just for a second think about the EXTRA 258 pips that could have been made IF indeed the correction is over. 258...200 lets say your entrance was pure trash and you added your short right now 100. Thats an extra 100 without the 258ish pullback. Just saying to watch something run back 258 pips is not something i could have done. If you expected it to do so, then to not grab the pips on the way up is just foolish unless the trade was missed. I get it, you put a position out there and sit on it. I find a swing and try to grab all of it while keeping my risk as low as possible. Do i give up a few pips here and there? Perhaps even lose a few trades along the way? Yup. But, I also dont leave trades blowing in the wind while the MOF for the currency is sounding alarms daily.

Also, I was arguing that the level had not been tested and still has not been and that it was a level that should not be ignored. Markets like to test breakout levels. Its what they do. To expect it not to or not take it into account is ignoring risk. Truth be told i dont care if you added to your short today, yesterday the day after tomorrow three days after that. Its not my money. I dont care what your position size is, what your average price is or anything thing else that has to do with your trade. I was attempting to have a conversation with traders about the direction of the pair. If thats too much to ask for in a thread about the specified pair then I have no idea why the thread is here.

Happy friday. Carry on...
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