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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #138,901
  • Apr 7, 2016 1:13pm Apr 7, 2016 1:13pm
Quoting Bill618
So here's one i'm looking at. All comments welcome as always. AUD/SGD. Price topping out in clear downtrend. 1st chart is W1, 2nd chart shows D1 price boxing. Will be looking for shorts after a BO south (a sustainable strong move upward seems less likely). See what happens... Happy Trading {image} {image}
Hi Bill did you take this BEOB at the retest of the bottom of the box?
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  • #138,902
  • Apr 7, 2016 2:16pm Apr 7, 2016 2:16pm
AUDCAD - D1 BEOB, 1.00 level rejected with D2 pinbar, looks like there is demand around 0.9700-0.9750 and TL.
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  • #138,903
  • Apr 7, 2016 3:02pm Apr 7, 2016 3:02pm
USD/CAD H1 BUOVB. Rejecting and closed above BRN 1.31000. I see a few folks have been trading this pair. BE. Price missed my TP by .0000000001 of a pip! A good WIPG example too. Let's see if it heads back up there. Good trading all. GB

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,904
  • Edited 4:52pm Apr 7, 2016 4:18pm | Edited 4:52pm
Quoting florinellz
{quote} Hi Bill did you take this BEOB at the retest of the bottom of the box? {image}
Hi florinellz,

I'm not in this trade yet BUT i'm hoping to be, i have short orders placed.
I always look for my initial entry bullish/bearish bars on the D1, W1 or M1 (stronger and more reliable imo). I now only use lower TF's for timing of additional lots. So, there is now a lovely BEOB coming out of the box on the D1 and i have a sell limit order based on a retrace (which will give me an entry almost as good as yours ).

I'll be at the beach/cafe/pub most of today with the "trouble and strife" and the "billy lids" so have also placed a sell stop order based on a break of the BEOB. It looks good to me, i look forward to seeing what happened in about 8 hours...
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  • #138,905
  • Apr 7, 2016 5:11pm Apr 7, 2016 5:11pm
Quoting Guitarbloke
USD/CAD H1 BUOVB. Rejecting and closed above BRN 1.31000. I see a few folks have been trading this pair. BE. Price missed my TP by .0000000001 of a pip! A good WIPG example too. Let's see if it heads back up there. Good trading all. GB {image}
I'm pretty sure there will be another push higher sooner rather than later to breach that 1.3218 high. I took 88 pips this morning long and am looking for a reason to buy again.K.I.S.S.
  • #138,906
  • Edited Apr 8, 2016 12:30am Apr 7, 2016 5:59pm | Edited Apr 8, 2016 12:30am
Quoting KissFan
{quote} I'm pretty sure there will be another push higher sooner rather than later to breach that 1.3218 high. I took 88 pips this morning long and am looking for a reason to buy again.K.I.S.S.
Good job on the pips Kiss. You'd be rockin and a rollin all night. I wonder if this has run out of steam though to the upside? Quite a few wicks. I'm not gr8 at trend lines......

Update; closed trade for small profit. If price can close under 1.31000, i will look for PA to sell.

USD/CAD D1

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EUR/CAD H1 PB rejecting BRN 1.49000 20 pip SL low risk. Trading into some traffic but i expect price to push further south. Target around 1.4715 area.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,907
  • Apr 8, 2016 1:01am Apr 8, 2016 1:01am
I always start off with 0.1 lots (as my confidence and bank balance grows i intend to increase this) because if price goes against me, it's not much money to lose. But if price goes my way like i expect, i then add more lots... then more lots if price is still going my way... then more.

very nice approach. I follow a similar approach but fail to add to the winning positions. How do you decide when to add new positions and how do you move the stop loss of the added positions. Do you use trailing stop loss? if yes how do you pick a stop loss. Sorry lots of questions but it will be great if you can answer those.

Thanks in advance

Happy Trading
Nishant
  • #138,908
  • Edited 6:28am Apr 8, 2016 5:40am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} EUR/CAD H1 PB rejecting BRN 1.49000 20 pip SL low risk. Trading into some traffic but i expect price to push further south. Target around 1.4715 area. {image}
EUR/CAD H1. Took profit at 1.48000.

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NZD/USD D1 BEOVB. See if we can get some action.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,909
  • Edited 3:15pm Apr 8, 2016 2:37pm | Edited 3:15pm
Quoting nicktrader
I always start off with 0.1 lots (as my confidence and bank balance grows i intend to increase this) because if price goes against me, it's not much money to lose. But if price goes my way like i expect, i then add more lots... then more lots if price is still going my way... then more. very nice approach. I follow a similar approach but fail to add to the winning positions. How do you decide when to add new positions and how do you move the stop loss of the added positions. Do you use trailing stop loss? if yes how do you pick a stop loss. Sorry...
Disclaimer: I am no expert! These are my opinions only.
First of all you're not adding-on until price is clearly moving your way. Knowing when to add-on is a nice problem to have but problem it is nonetheless. I am far from perfect at this but i'm getting better with each trade.

My theory is this: When price is moving nicely my way, could be 30, 60, 100 pips or whatever in profit, i am looking on the lower TF's for PA (H1 and H4, even D1 if my original entry was based off of W1 or M1) whilst fully respecting my original trade plan from the higher TF's, meaning if price is nearing my W1 trade major trouble area, say 20 pips away, i won't add-on anymore.
Some examples of PA i'm looking for are price may have been boxing for hours/days and then it breaks out and continues in may favour, i add-on at the confirmed breakout OR another one is a nice new continuation BUOB/BEOB/ETC form going my way and i add-on after a retrace OR perhaps a confirmed breakthrough of old ppz/support/resistance etc. Use whatever PA works for you, maybe it's a specific indicator like Stochastics (there's a zillion of them).

My 3 keys are these: 1. Each new add-on is a new trade - your money at risk - so when adding-on make sure (this is crucial!) your not about to run into a support/resistance/ppz/ wall etc. 2. Your original trade should be with the trend (therefore your add-ons will be too). ME's (multiple entries/add-ons) against the trend often results in multiple losses. Now this is purely based on the notion that price moves more easily with the flow than against it. 3. Patience. All to often i see price running away and i jump in with an add-on, all excited, only to see it reverse shortly thereafter and go the other way 40 pips! Sure, if i'm with trend it usually comes back my way eventually (not always) BUT if i had been patient and analysed the chart a bit and waited for the bounce/retrace that looked inevitable at that time, i could have gained another 40 pips, reduced my risk substantially and avoided a bit of stress.

The 3rd key is my Achilles heal. I'm not particularly patient but i'm getting better with each trading week.

With stop losses, each day i zoom out on several TF's (particularly the higher ones) and look to see where price might retrace/bounce to after that day's trading and obviously place my SL beyond that a bit. If you were trading the H1 charts then you will need to do this every hour or so. I don't use a trailing stop anymore as it greatly reduces your chances of getting the really good runners (and the bigger pips) because price can bounce up and down quite a lot even in good trends. I also use the ME/ME (multiple entry/multiple exit) strategy where multiple exit is taking some good profit along the way. Example is if at this moment in time i have 5 entries going on a single pair, say 250, 210, 160, 100 and 70 pips in profit, i will likely close the 250 and let the others run. If price continues my way, take some more profit later etc.

Am i perfect at all of this theory? Ha-Ha no way but when i get it right, it almost always works out well.

Does this help or explain what you asked?

Have a great weekend.
Bill

P.S. i will post some more detail when i have time about why learning the ME/ME strategy (and i'm still learning) can be very beneficial to your trading results
  • #138,910
  • Apr 9, 2016 5:31am Apr 9, 2016 5:31am
A bit of trail running here today. Cape Schank Victoria. Have a good weekend y'all.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,911
  • Apr 9, 2016 9:33am Apr 9, 2016 9:33am
Quoting nicktrader
I always start off with 0.1 lots (as my confidence and bank balance grows i intend to increase this) because if price goes against me, it's not much money to lose. But if price goes my way like i expect, i then add more lots... then more lots if price is still going my way... then more. very nice approach. I follow a similar approach but fail to add to the winning positions. How do you decide when to add new positions and how do you move the stop loss of the added positions. Do you use trailing stop loss? if yes how do you pick a stop loss. Sorry...

Instead of adding to my position as it goes in my favor, I like to scale out of a position when it goes against me. For example I may have a separate stop loss for 25% of my position set at -10 pips, -20pips, -30pips and -40pips. This means that I effectively have an overall stop at 25 pips. It avoids the possibly of getting 'dinged' out of my whole position on an unlucky spike or stop run. On the flip side, if I nail the entry then I just let it run to my expected target without touching it, meaning I capitalize on the whole move.

The problem with pyramiding (adding to a trade as it goes in your favor) is that it effectively worsens your overall entry price every time you do it, making you vulnerable to the inevitable retracement periods.

Just my opinion of course, everyone must do what they feel works best for them
  • #138,912
  • Apr 9, 2016 11:06am Apr 9, 2016 11:06am
Quoting LiftTheOffer
{quote} Instead of adding to my position as it goes in my favor, I like to scale out of a position when it goes against me. For example I may have a separate stop loss for 25% of my position set at -10 pips, -20pips, -30pips and -40pips. This means that I effectively have an overall stop at 25 pips. It avoids the possibly of getting 'dinged' out of my whole position on an unlucky spike or stop run. On the flip side, if I nail the entry then I just let it run to my expected target without touching it, meaning I capitalize on the whole move. The problem...
This also looks like a good approach where you reduce your losses. Also you made a good point of why you would want to reduce the positions when you are wrong. Thanks LTO
  • #138,913
  • Apr 9, 2016 11:47am Apr 9, 2016 11:47am
Quoting Bill618
{quote} Hi florinellz, I'm not in this trade yet BUT i'm hoping to be, i have short orders placed. I always look for my initial entry bullish/bearish bars on the D1, W1 or M1 (stronger and more reliable imo). I now only use lower TF's for timing of additional lots. So, there is now a lovely BEOB coming out of the box on the D1 and i have a sell limit order based on a retrace (which will give me an entry almost as good as yours ). I'll be at the beach/cafe/pub most of today with the "trouble and strife" and the "billy lids" so have also placed...
Hard life for some -)
  • #138,914
  • Apr 9, 2016 2:42pm Apr 9, 2016 2:42pm
Quoting LiftTheOffer
{quote} Instead of adding to my position as it goes in my favor, I like to scale out of a position when it goes against me. For example I may have a separate stop loss for 25% of my position set at -10 pips, -20pips, -30pips and -40pips. This means that I effectively have an overall stop at 25 pips. It avoids the possibly of getting 'dinged' out of my whole position on an unlucky spike or stop run. On the flip side, if I nail the entry then I just let it run to my expected target without touching it, meaning I capitalize on the whole move. The problem...
Thank you LiftTheOffer, after reading this post of yours and re-reading mine, i realize i must clarify a few things...

Firstly, i am capitalizing on the whole move with my 1st entry. My 0.1 lot investment is close to or at the maximum amount of money i am prepared to risk on any single trade (i have a small live a/c because i'm only 6 months into my FX journey and as i learn i'm willing to risk only a small amount). It's kind of like a demo a/c but with some money as i don't believe you can replicate fear and greed (the 2 emotions that will make or break you) with a demo a/c.

So when i'm adding-on (pyramiding), in my mind i'm not worsening my overall entry price, i'm actually enhancing it! Yes, the subsequent trades are not likely to be as profitable as the 1st one but who cares because i see it as investing more of my otherwise free capital into a winning trade. Maybe my brain works in an odd way lol but i clearly see add-ons as enhancing my overall entry price. "Technically" i'm diluting my average entry price but again who cares, i'm making more money. At the end of the day we are here to make money right? So by adding-on you make more money (as long as the trade is going the right way ofc). Do any of you find it hard to identify/get onto good solid winning trades? I do, so when i have one, i invest more. Do i want 3 trades for the week making money or do i want 6? Obviously the obvious answer is obvious...

Once/if your brain can make that worsen/enhance switch, then what i'm suggesting will become clearer. From there you make your own decision as to whether it's a strategy worth testing for yourself.

I'm assuming here that LiftTheOffer is more of an intraday trader? When you're working with small SL's such as 10 and 20 pips, well that's intraday and that won't work with the add-on strategy. So the major thing to realize here is my evolving way of trading is likely not successful for intraday trading. This is definitely a strategy for longer term trading, like swing trading, which is what i'm working towards. I want to be in trades for at least several days, weeks or even months (but i'm not there yet).

So what i decided to do on my first trading day of April was "expose" myself by starting a Trade Explorer account for all to view my strategy evolution and success (or otherwise)... and no doubt it will evolve! I really started it for my own benefit as it's designed to stop me from trading "emotionally" - doing silly trades based on fear and greed - because i'm now exposed to my peers. Last week was great, 900 pips using 0.1 lot trades. Without the add-ons it would have been half that or less. It's very early days, i'm not expecting 900 pips every week lol but i'm expecting positive months most if not all of the time (big call i know ).

BTW if anyone is interested in the power of pyramiding, i highly recommend reading Nicolas Darvas' "How i made $2,000,000 in the stock market". It's a fun read too. Essentially, for every 10 trades Darvas made, 4 lost a bit, 4 made a bit but 2 made a lot (those lovely runners). He traded in the 1950's/60's/70's but nothing has changed with the markets.

Sorry again for the long post, i'm getting RSI in my 2 typing fingers lately I'll stop now.
Looking forward to testing LiftTheOffer's scaling out strategy, thanks man!

Bill
  • #138,915
  • Apr 9, 2016 2:54pm Apr 9, 2016 2:54pm
Quoting priceaction9
{quote} Hard life for some -)
-)
  • #138,916
  • Apr 10, 2016 9:30am Apr 10, 2016 9:30am
Quoting Bill618
{quote} I'm assuming here that LiftTheOffer is more of an intraday trader?
My trades can last up to a couple of days but I am generally going for high reward/risk but low probability type entries. So when I enter I expect to nail the turn and not have any drawdown.

If I have to sit offside it probably means my trade idea was wrong in the first place so I start to get out of some (but not all) of my position very quickly.


Quoting Bill618
{quote} Looking forward to testing LiftTheOffer's scaling out strategy, thanks man! Bill
No worries, good luck Bill
  • #138,917
  • Apr 10, 2016 9:42am Apr 10, 2016 9:42am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Hey Bill Feel free to ask anything anytime I don't use MAs anymore. I did many many moons ago but ditched them as I sort of used them as a guide more than confluence. Over time you can really just see where they would be since all they represent is an average agreement on historical price. So for me that in the most basic form gives you general sentiment(be it short or long term). I have nothing against them but it wasn't really necessary to my decision making so I just took them off Best Mike
great to see u being still around M!

upcoming uc setup

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take care,
J
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #138,918
  • Apr 10, 2016 11:54am Apr 10, 2016 11:54am
Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} great to see u being still around M! upcoming uc setup {image} take care, J
good to see you too P

Looks real good
  • #138,919
  • Apr 10, 2016 11:55am Apr 10, 2016 11:55am
Quoting Guitarbloke
A bit of trail running here today. Cape Schank Victoria. Have a good weekend y'all. {image} {image} {image}
looks awesome! Makes me excited for my vacation next month
  • #138,920
  • Apr 10, 2016 11:59am Apr 10, 2016 11:59am
nice boxing here, eur/usd is another with great boxing and a pivot
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