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NZD/USD

  • #11,101
  • Apr 7, 2016 9:50am Apr 7, 2016 9:50am
daily NU with month pivots. Do you think this is looking good for longs or shorts atm?
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  • #11,102
  • Apr 7, 2016 9:50am Apr 7, 2016 9:50am
same but with orange TL three drives anyone?
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  • #11,103
  • Apr 7, 2016 9:51am Apr 7, 2016 9:51am
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  • #11,104
  • Apr 7, 2016 10:02am Apr 7, 2016 10:02am
Quoting asgcorp
daily NU with month pivots. Do you think this is looking good for longs or shorts atm? {image}
I'd say I'm on the right side of the trade now (provided my stop is sufficient)...

BTW... appreciate your ideas...

Thanks!

EDIT:: targeting 11.8 fib @ 6423. I'll reassess fundamentals a it approaches (assuming I'm on the right side...)
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  • #11,105
  • Apr 7, 2016 10:17am Apr 7, 2016 10:17am
BTW.. I think you pointed out this EG position last weekend. I waited a bit, but decided to jump on it now given the PA looks as if its stalling and wanting to roll over. Nice risk reward if it works out.
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  • #11,106
  • Apr 7, 2016 10:22am Apr 7, 2016 10:22am
nu still in bullish trend as its above cloud however, pullback and stuck in range btw tenkensen and kijen sen...the 3 drives is a good counter trend trade no doubt...till it falls below cloud is in a bullish formation
  • #11,107
  • Apr 7, 2016 10:27am Apr 7, 2016 10:27am
My short order was hit, cb is .67733 lets see how this one plays out.

And ninner, almost 64% of retail traders are long nzdusd... https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/...osition-ratios

I don't place too much weight on it, but I have found I've been more successful when I trade against them. Especially when the chart confirms it. Just my 2 cents.
  • #11,108
  • Apr 7, 2016 10:31am Apr 7, 2016 10:31am
Quoting ninner
nu still in bullish trend as its above cloud however, pullback and stuck in range btw tenkensen and kijen sen...the 3 drives is a good counter trend trade no doubt...till it falls below cloud is in a bullish formation
Thanks for the input...

This is what I am looking at on a 4h timeframe (well clear of the cloud)... if I am reading it wrong... please
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  • #11,109
  • Apr 7, 2016 10:36am Apr 7, 2016 10:36am
yes it is ....im talking of the daily tf...4 hour is below ...however, i see some faults....one is the lagging isnt below which i prefer and most important is that daily is still above
  • #11,110
  • Apr 7, 2016 11:21am Apr 7, 2016 11:21am
stay out of NU longs for now. heed the warning at your own risk.
  • #11,111
  • Apr 7, 2016 11:25am Apr 7, 2016 11:25am
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  • #11,112
  • Apr 7, 2016 11:26am Apr 7, 2016 11:26am
not trying to mess with anyone. I also had long NZD USD positions. Closed them post-London open.
  • #11,113
  • Apr 7, 2016 12:13pm Apr 7, 2016 12:13pm
Any love left for NZD
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  • #11,114
  • Apr 7, 2016 1:45pm Apr 7, 2016 1:45pm
Quoting Squiggles
Any love left for NZD {image}
Don't think it will retrace to red zone
lost a few pips today playing longs
Please check your email Sir.
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  • #11,115
  • Apr 7, 2016 3:10pm Apr 7, 2016 3:10pm
Quoting Squiggles
Any love left for NZD {image}
Not head over heals but a safe fling, so far, lets see how it develops
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  • #11,116
  • Apr 7, 2016 3:27pm Apr 7, 2016 3:27pm
Quoting asgcorp
not trying to mess with anyone. I also had long NZD USD positions. Closed them post-London open.

I agree. I was long, and my stop was hit this morning. It looks like in the upward trend, relative to 200EMA on both 1D and 4H charts, But it is too close to EMA line, and it is not nearly steep enough. I will wait about a day to confirm that my channel is not legit anymore, then move my funds into something else, and keep an eye on NU for a potential breakout.

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  • #11,117
  • Apr 7, 2016 3:55pm Apr 7, 2016 3:55pm
when in doubt using a no nonsense TL break test will help. It's H4 chart also.

First TL obviously broken cause we can't sustain this level of attack. Second TL is also broken. Some will argue look there is an inside bar on H4 after TL break.
Well you know it is kinda close to inside bar, but provided we had a TL break previously, not sure we can take this IB for granted.

So overall NU looks like falling back into it's recent range, that's a more likely scenario atm.
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  • #11,118
  • Apr 7, 2016 4:14pm Apr 7, 2016 4:14pm
updated EW H4 projection on NZD USD. trade safely team.
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  • #11,119
  • Apr 7, 2016 4:23pm Apr 7, 2016 4:23pm
bottomline on NU: trend in fact is still up, having said that the retracement is not complete, possible strategy: buy dips to 6640-6660 area.
  • #11,120
  • Apr 7, 2016 4:24pm Apr 7, 2016 4:24pm
retail positioning on NZD USD long/short, it's bad news for NZD USD, since we will go down now to shake out weak longs, almost 100% guaranteed.
The long side is too crowded.
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