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  • #1,441
  • Apr 7, 2016 11:34am Apr 7, 2016 11:34am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} dont forget about the lawn
Damn.....I knew there was a catch in the perfect plan. LOL :-)
  • #1,442
  • Apr 7, 2016 11:36am Apr 7, 2016 11:36am
Quoting bassramy
Sorry C., these was part of a private Work which i can't share. The one and only Peter Brandt, the Famous Chart Patterns trader, $389 as a founding member and the offer expires in 7 days if anybody is interested . His latest tweet Which we all know about already and deeply in trading it. {image}
Head and shoulders work? I mean if they work purely technically? * not considering the fundies or any other technical confluance on other correlated derivatives

seems that this move is xxxjpy strenght
and neutral-bear USD
HS should be random imo?
  • #1,443
  • Apr 7, 2016 11:48am Apr 7, 2016 11:48am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} Head and shoulders work? I mean if they work purely technically? * not considering the fundies or any other technical confluance on other correlated derivatives seems that this move is xxxjpy strenght and neutral-bear USD HS should be random imo?
I must admit I wasn't looking at the head and shoulders pattern and was simply looking at the breakdown of the bull trend in MN timeframe as a driving signal for other timeframes to follow suit......mind you....there clearly was a HS pattern on MN when you look at it in retrospect. I think there are many ways to skin the beast from a technical viewpoint.....I am not much of a fan of classical chart patterns but given Peter Brandt's long term success....I think a refreshing second take is probably a good move for me.

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  • #1,444
  • Apr 7, 2016 11:52am Apr 7, 2016 11:52am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} Head and shoulders work? I mean if they work purely technically? * not considering the fundies or any other technical confluance on other correlated derivatives seems that this move is xxxjpy strenght and neutral-bear USD HS should be random imo?
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=586072
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=586059
Yeah the USD is treading water and the strenght is all about the yen.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #1,445
  • Apr 7, 2016 1:41pm Apr 7, 2016 1:41pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} I must admit I wasn't looking at the head and shoulders pattern and was simply looking at the breakdown of the bull trend in MN timeframe as a driving signal for other timeframes to follow suit......mind you....there clearly was a HS pattern on MN when you look at it in retrospect. I think there are many ways to skin the beast from a technical viewpoint.....I am not much of a fan of classical chart patterns but given Peter Brandt's long term success....I think a refreshing second take is probably a good move for me. {image}
I agree. Not a fan of chart patterns myself also-hard to program that so that EA can play that freely. Surely different ways to play this game and seems the guy is doing excellent work.

You manually put the trendlines on the graph rite. Doing this on all xJPY pairs would show similar picture. Would that make your decision easier/stronger?
Still imo, trendlines tend to be personal? influenced by the user in determining the starting point of the trendline.


Quoting bassramy
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=586072 http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=586059 Yeah the USD is treading water and the strenght is all about the yen.
what would be the outcome if you wouldnt read the news whatsoewa? how that influance in your trading? do you need a story behind the move?
im serious in this questions.
Do you do your decision making also on the fundamental views of analytics from your side or any other firms/banks fundies?

I am really trying to move 100% away from any news and fundies.
What II tried to play xjpy strenght with GBP which was on a sell button. Entered on monday retrace 159,45 with a limit order of 2x 1h atr500 risking 1 R = 1x 1h atr 500. Shoulda left it run, capped 9R instead of almost 20R. Still, the best trade I had this year. Hope next time is few Rs bigger
  • #1,446
  • Edited 2:35pm Apr 7, 2016 2:01pm | Edited 2:35pm
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} I agree. Not a fan of chart patterns myself also-hard to program that so that EA can play that freely. Surely different ways to play this game and seems the guy is doing excellent work. You manually put the trendlines on the graph rite. Doing this on all xJPY pairs would show similar picture. Would that make your decision easier/stronger? Still imo, trendlines tend to be personal? influenced by the user in determining the starting point of the trendline. {quote} what would be the outcome if you wouldnt read the news whatsoewa? how that influance...
If you were asking me buddy, i think the chart posted is your answer and this is only one pair, the weakness was writing all over the charts since the beginning of the year and at 7/1/2016 was the break, although there was a retrace back but the move was clear after the long term consolidation and top building.

I noticed also that even the Nikkei was diverging from all the Other Indices and that was making me wonder is this a real short signal when all the other indices were trending up ?

The weakness all over the Japanese Markets was very evident and the break in the Nikkei happened at the beginning of this month so i didn't hesitate to follow my signals because i have confidence in my back tested and optimized trading model.

By the way Brussia Dortmund and Liverpool are on in the Europa League.
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #1,447
  • Edited 9:19pm Apr 7, 2016 8:15pm | Edited 9:19pm
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} You manually put the trendlines on the graph rite.
The best part about the lines drawn on this chart is that they are not standard trendlines. They are standard deviation channels (linear regression) where the channel is 1 standard deviation away from the mean (the linear regression line of best fit). Provided you extend the channel from the lowest low (bar) to the highest high (bar) [which are clearly identifiable pivot points], everyone will draw them exactly the same way (goodbye subjectivity, hello objectivity). They really are amazingly powerful and much of my own thread "Diversified Trend Trading Approach" discusses how to use them. You will find them on MT4 as standard tools. ("Insert/Channels/Standard deviation")

Quoting 21vs7
{quote} Doing this on all xJPY pairs would show similar picture. Would that make your decision easier/stronger?
Yep definitely. I actually track a very large number of instruments and if I see weakness in any group of related instruments (such as Yen pairs etc.) that gives me a stronger reason to get excited. What Bass says in the following post is spot on IMO. For example, the weakness was very evident across all Yen pairs. Using the MN chart tells me when 'zones of interest arise' and gives a rational 'timing' when to drill down to use other timeframes to capture the higher probability big moves....... I don't use relative strength or other measures to only trade the strongest of the group....as I try to avoid any form of prediction. What I do instead is progressively scale into all of them by timeframe to avoid getting over exposing the portfolio with risk. Correlated instruments are not a concern for a portfolio provided you have protection in place to prevent downside risk.


Quoting 21vs7
{quote} Still imo, trendlines tend to be personal? influenced by the user in determining the starting point of the trendline. {quote} what would be the outcome if you wouldnt read the news whatsoewa? how that influance in your trading? do you need a story behind the move? im serious in this questions. Do you do your decision making also on the fundamental views of analytics from your side or any other firms/banks fundies? I am really trying to move 100% away from any news and fundies.
Until I got into linear regression channels I would have supported your statement 100%. They have been the solution for me with my discretionary systems which has removed any form of subjectivity. My definition of trend relates to imposing an objective way to classify any trend on any instrument the same way.

With regards to news, if you haven't taken news into account with your back-tests and you find that your forward tests match your back-tests then that is reason enough for me to conclude that for my particular trading approach, keep away from the news. I simply block it out. There are some very good reasons for this.:
1. I trade across a very diverse portfolio where I am dealing with very low trade risk exposure (approx 0.5% trade risk or less). Even if you are caught with excessive slippage through a major price shock with low liquidity, you are not going to get burned. I was on the wrong side of the Swissy debacle for example and my hit was only 2% which was 4x my actual stop.
2. A news event may not be detrimental to you and may actually add significant icing on the cake if you happen to be in a trade or enter a trade in the correct direction. Much of my alpha is attributed to simply being in the right place at the right time. I don't predict it, I simply stick to my rules (which have been confirmed through my testing) like glue. Blaming the system if things go wrong is fine, but blaming yourself for disregarding your system is the gravest sin. You would have been out on your ear with Richard Dennis's shoe in your back-side if you had knee jerked a trading system if you were part of the Turtle trading program.
3. To gain confidence in blocking out the news, do what Perry Kaufman suggests. Go through your back-tests in detail and count the number of times you were on the right side of a news trading event and the total profit generated from being on the right side. Then have a look at the number of times you were on the wrong side and the total losses incurred. If there is a net benefit from trading through news events, then let the stats tell you what is best....not your gut intuition.

Bottom line is that if you follow the trend, then you will always be trading in the right direction with the big moves that matter. I personally believe that fundamentals actually drive the market with the long term secular trends (eg. interest rates etc.), however trying to predict timing with FA is my nemesis. By trend trading a diversified portfolio, you actually don't have to predict anything. You simply ride the 'actual' wave driven by fundamental economics clearly exposed on the MN chart. I must admit I am a trend following nazi, so I am severely biased by this approach, but is certainly works for me.
  • #1,448
  • Apr 8, 2016 1:35am Apr 8, 2016 1:35am
Quote
The best part about the lines drawn on this chart is that they are not standard trendlines. They are standard deviation channels (linear regression) where the channel is 1 standard deviation away from the mean (the linear regression line of best fit). Provided you extend the channel from the lowest low (bar) to the highest high (bar) [which are clearly identifiable pivot points], everyone will draw them exactly the same way (goodbye subjectivity, hello objectivity).

I see. better.

ok, semi automated?..Downloaded bunch of Linear regression / standard deviation tools. Manually user defines how many candles back it will be calculated. - so the starting point. Or there is some XX number that mainly is used as 100 MA 50 MA or some other?

When me and my programer finish next two projects Ill try to build something with that. Ill report my findings..

Quote
What I do instead is progressively scale into all of them by timeframe to avoid getting over exposing the portfolio with risk. Correlated instruments are not a concern for a portfolio provided you have protection in place to prevent downside risk.

cool stuff. with so many trades in place in-out what is your average holding period in general 1h,4h,1d system?
At 3% you stop that would mean around 7-12 trades right. Im intreaged with the holding period I saw your piece on swaps deteriorating the moves profit. Also Bass links on one traders cost efficiency. Much needs to be done on this part when you accept your trendfollowing strategies.

Quote
Until I got into linear regression channels I would have supported your statement 100%. They have been the solution for me with my discretionary systems which has removed any form of subjectivity.

yeah, thats the goal. Have bunch of systems working fully mechanicaly but they are in the demo environment forward testing. Im already semi - mechanical myself, but always intreaged how you guys do it fully.


Quote
... keep away from the news. I simply block it out. There are some very good reasons for this.: 1. I trade across a very diverse portfolio
2. A news event may not be detrimental to you and may actually add significant icing on the cake..

Yes. I have similar view with suggestion that Price is much of the time in the right place. So one needs only to follow the price. When in Thailand i read the Book: The Power of Now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Power_of_Now

I developed one system based on this book and it shows some interesting results. I trade only on Currencies as they are mechanical universe itself. Trying to get a hold of that in last few years.

So, have collegues in industry who always want to talk about China and Draghi saying shjit. Had few meetings when I calmly said that we dont have anything in common, and I will just continue making money while they will say essays every coffe they drink.

Quote
Blaming the system if things go wrong is fine, but blaming yourself for disregarding your system is the gravest sin. You would have been out on your ear with Richard Dennis's shoe in your back-side if you had knee jerked a trading system if you were part of the Turtle trading program.

I hear that

Also agreed with the rest. Love the markets.
  • #1,449
  • Apr 8, 2016 2:19am Apr 8, 2016 2:19am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} I see. better. ok, semi automated?..Downloaded bunch of Linear regression / standard deviation tools. Manually user defines how many candles back it will be calculated. - so the starting point. Or there is some XX number that mainly is used as 100 MA 50 MA or some other? When me and my programer finish next two projects Ill try to build something with that. Ill report my findings.. {quote} cool stuff. with so many trades in place in-out what is your average holding period in general 1h,4h,1d system? At 3% you stop that would mean around...
To avoid messing up Bass's thread, pop over to my thread and I will step through your queries.
  • #1,450
  • Apr 8, 2016 3:30am Apr 8, 2016 3:30am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} To avoid messing up Bass's thread, pop over to my thread and I will step through your queries.
Yeah, Bass and yours thread are the road. Road to Vienna, Rome, Frankfurt, Laaandan, New York, Tokio, perhaps also to AUD and NZD!
  • #1,451
  • Apr 8, 2016 4:07am Apr 8, 2016 4:07am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} Yeah, Bass and yours thread are the road. Road to Vienna, Rome, Frankfurt, Laaandan, New York, Tokio, perhaps also to AUD and NZD!
For a moment I thought you were singing this song by an ex hedge fund manager (only joking) - New York, London, Paris, Munich everybody talking bout "trend following".

Inserted Video


PS Apologies Bass for polluting your thread with lame content.
  • #1,452
  • Edited 4:47am Apr 8, 2016 4:08am | Edited 4:47am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} To avoid messing up Bass's thread, pop over to my thread and I will step through your queries.
I don't mind really, you guys are the owners now and i'm the guest here, so keep it up.
A lot of typos, posting from my iphone.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #1,453
  • Apr 8, 2016 4:18am Apr 8, 2016 4:18am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} For a moment I thought you were singing this song by an ex hedge fund manager (only joking) - New York, London, Paris, Munich everybody talking bout "trend following". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Avvh5H-EPWU PS Apologies Bass for polluting your thread with lame content.
Lol ..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #1,454
  • Apr 8, 2016 4:23am Apr 8, 2016 4:23am
  • #1,455
  • Apr 9, 2016 4:41am Apr 9, 2016 4:41am
Trend Following When it works.
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #1,456
  • Apr 9, 2016 5:49am Apr 9, 2016 5:49am
Quoting bassramy
Trend Following When it works. {image}
Glorious trade Bass. Great to see a master at work. :-)
  • #1,457
  • Edited 11:42am Apr 9, 2016 10:30am | Edited 11:42am
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k12Fxp6RCWE

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yXIdM0dCb5Q


Inserted Video

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ut7zdLmEl8c

Inserted Video


https://m.youtube.com/watch?list=PLH...&v=iuMLH990Zpg

Inserted Video


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=19GW1GUoXlE

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CE3OwpKalCs
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #1,458
  • Apr 9, 2016 9:28pm Apr 9, 2016 9:28pm
Quoting bassramy
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k12Fxp6RCWE https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yXIdM0dCb5Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8ZYgxD_z6A https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ut7zdLmEl8c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxooU5BOwuw https://m.youtube.com/watch?list=PLH...&v=iuMLH990Zpg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFQPBAPKUXM https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=19GW1GUoXlE https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CE3OwpKalCs

What a great way to spend the morning. Loved the vid's Bass.

Aside from the stunning demo's of Trading Blox and the great backtest guidance vid's which make me wonder why the ********* I am progressing with my spreadsheet models, I particularly liked the documentary on the 'Best Algorithmic Trading Programs'. It cut through simplified mathematical modelling of complex financial systems like a knife. It also made we want to take up oyster farming. A classic quote from the doco "A thousand different mortgages in a CDO, how many different correlations are there? Well about 500,000....but for simplicity, why don't we mathematically model each mortgage as having the same correlation"......*kabooom*

"Economic laws".......bwahahahahahahahahahaha.


Attached Image
  • #1,459
  • Apr 10, 2016 11:50am Apr 10, 2016 11:50am
Quoting bassramy
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k12Fxp6RCWE https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yXIdM0dCb5Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8ZYgxD_z6A https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ut7zdLmEl8c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxooU5BOwuw https://m.youtube.com/watch?list=PLH...&v=iuMLH990Zpg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFQPBAPKUXM https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=19GW1GUoXlE https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CE3OwpKalCs

Thanks Bass.

I haven't heard this webinar before..I like Ernie Chan, he talks a lot of sense...
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #1,460
  • Edited 3:15am Apr 11, 2016 2:59am | Edited 3:15am
The speculators chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you hope that every day will be the last day and you loose more than you should had you not listened to hope to the same ally that is so potent a success bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. . . . Instead of hoping he (The successful trader) must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit. It is absolutely wrong to gamble in stocks the way the average man does. (Lefvre, 1923/1993, p. 130)

“First of all, most traders don’t have a winning strategy. Second, even among those traders who do, many don’t follow their strategy. Trading puts pressure on weaker human traits and seems to seek out each individual’s Achilles’ heel.” – Gil Blake

“Opportunities change, strategies change, but people and psychology do not change. If trend following systems don’t work as well, something else will. There’s always money being lost, so someone out there has to win.” – Gil Blake

“The lesson for me was that if you break a discipline once, the next transgression become much easier. Breaking a diet provides an appropriate analogy – once you do it, it becomes much easier to make further exceptions.” – Gil Blake

" They say that the best way to rid yourself of addictive behavior is to starve the addiction. The more you feed whatever craving you have, the more it will crave. Breaking your rules and losing money can be very addictive. "

“I’m not a big fan of diversification. My answer to that question is that you can diversify very well by just making enough trades per year. If the odds are 70 percent in your favor and you make fifty trades, it’s very difficult to have a down year.” – Gil Blake

“Whenever I take a position, I like to imagine what it would be like under the worst-case scenario. In doing so, I minimize the confusion if that situation actually develops. In my view, losses are a very important part of trading. When a loss happens, I believe in embracing it.” – Gil Blake

“The lesson for me was that if you break a discipline once, the next transgression become much easier. Breaking a diet provides an appropriate analogy – once you do it, it becomes much easier to make further exceptions.” – Gil Blake
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
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