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Money flows: Trading the strongest / weakest major currency cross

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  • Post #181
  • Quote
  • Mar 4, 2015 8:02am Mar 4, 2015 8:02am
  •  petair23
  • | Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Member | 7 Posts
hi, I've improved it a bit in a new spreadsheet.
I came quite handy today for EURNZD short.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...sBA/edit#gid=0
 
1
  • Post #182
  • Quote
  • Jun 18, 2015 12:00pm Jun 18, 2015 12:00pm
  •  jusiur
  • Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Member | 646 Posts
Quoting petair23
Disliked
hi, I've improved it a bit in a new spreadsheet. I came quite handy today for EURNZD short. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...sBA/edit#gid=0
Ignored
brilliant, thanks. Your coffee is waiting
Humble & Kalcker CLO2 = Covid killer
 
 
  • Post #183
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  • Jun 22, 2015 3:48pm Jun 22, 2015 3:48pm
  •  petair23
  • | Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Member | 7 Posts
Thank you :-)

Quoting jusiur
Disliked
{quote} brilliant, thanks. Your coffee is waiting
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #184
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  • Jan 2, 2016 7:36am Jan 2, 2016 7:36am
  •  redwed
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 387 Posts
Hello to all & Happy New Year.

This thread is one of my favorites. And this is the first time i'm posting here.

Have a chance to look at charts last day of 2015.

Here is my findings, hope you get what i meant (be gentle, English is my second language).

I use Alpari broker. The time is +0200. The date: 31th of Dec 2015 & Time: 12.00.

EUR is weakening in all pairs.

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But not EurChf

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Continue on next post (attachment per post exceeded).
 
 
  • Post #185
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  • Jan 2, 2016 7:45am Jan 2, 2016 7:45am
  •  redwed
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 387 Posts
Continue...

Again, here is EURCHF.

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We knew that EUR is weakening all across it pairs, excuding Chf. So, what is the problem with CHF?

Time to zoom into its individual chart!

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Do you see that? CHF is also weakening to its pairs, including EUR! So CHF is more weak than EUR.

So, my best choice here would be

a. avoid EUR pairs. (At least EURCHF).
b. CHF is weakening, so CHF is the -ve side.
c. search the +ve side, and combine with the most -ve side (Chf) and grab all the fast profits!

Regards, red..
 
 
  • Post #186
  • Quote
  • Jan 28, 2016 2:38pm Jan 28, 2016 2:38pm
  •  Edd Ganuelas
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Maranatha | 446 Posts
Quoting redwed
Disliked
Hello to all & Happy New Year. This thread is one of my favorites. And this is the first time i'm posting here. Have a chance to look at charts last day of 2015. Here is my findings, hope you get what i meant (be gentle, English is my second language). I use Alpari broker. The time is +0200. The date: 31th of Dec 2015 & Time: 12.00. EUR is weakening in all pairs. {image}{image}{image}{image}{image}{image} But not EurChf {image} Continue on next post (attachment per post exceeded).
Ignored
Redwed:

Very interesting. Is there any reason why you used M15 TF? Why not higher TF?

Edd
 
 
  • Post #187
  • Quote
  • Feb 17, 2016 9:51am Feb 17, 2016 9:51am
  •  econbizer
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: be curious like a cat | 78 Posts
Hi All,

Thus far, I have clued out small gold nuggets here & there from unknown4x's sharing.
Anyone successfully trading with this style, able to share pointers? Thus far I have pieced custom indicies as per markit weightings. After identifying either b/o or reversal of a pivot level on specific custom indices of interest, I zoom in to a currency table matrix of H1 to M5 tfs to confirm "where the flow is happening". I gather that the alternative is to squeeze many custom charts like unknown4x cued, with levels marked in advance to enable snapshot decision making on sensible R:R trade.

Using this method, it seems you need a viable way to execute your orders fast, preferably setting sl & tp FAST too. It seems like it is more of a scalping method where you need to take pips off the table within a few mins when you see the flows ebbing, else you are likely to see the flow reverse just as quickly.

Any mt4 programmers?
Any clues as to how to code the synthetic pair GBP/SEK using GBP/USD*USD/SEK on MT4? I would like to use this to create a custom GBP index of which GBP/SEK is a component, not offered by my broker.

GBP aaGBP aaUSD
SEK = USD x SEK


eb
 
 
  • Post #188
  • Quote
  • Feb 21, 2016 12:43am Feb 21, 2016 12:43am
  •  redwed
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 387 Posts
Quoting Edd Ganuelas
Disliked
{quote} Redwed: Very interesting. Is there any reason why you used M15 TF? Why not higher TF? Edd
Ignored
I trade mainly on m15, sometimes m30. You can choose whatever tf suits you the best.
 
 
  • Post #189
  • Quote
  • Feb 21, 2016 12:52am Feb 21, 2016 12:52am
  •  redwed
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 387 Posts
Quoting econbizer
Disliked
Hi All, Thus far, I have clued out small gold nuggets here & there from unknown4x's sharing. Anyone successfully trading with this style, able to share pointers? Thus far I have pieced custom indicies as per markit weightings. After identifying either b/o or reversal of a pivot level on specific custom indices of interest, I zoom in to a currency table matrix of H1 to M5 tfs to confirm "where the flow is happening". I gather that the alternative is to squeeze many custom charts like unknown4x cued, with levels marked in advance to enable snapshot...
Ignored
I would like to highlight some of my findings too.

First, you'll find a very friendly tool here.

It creates a basket of currency based on LFX indices (that is Liteforex). It is an ea that creates offline chart for AUD, USD, EUR, NZD, CHF, CAD, JPY and GBP. The only drawback i've seen until the time is JPY is used as LFXJPY, not JPYLFX like others (AUDLFX, USDLFX.......).

Install the EA on your platform, then make sure to apply some trend indicator on any currency involved.

For example, i apply tidane trend on FLXJPY. Here's how it looks.

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Have fun!
 
 
  • Post #190
  • Quote
  • Feb 23, 2016 10:30am Feb 23, 2016 10:30am
  •  econbizer
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: be curious like a cat | 78 Posts
I feel it is suicide to scalp flows with mt4 brokers. One would need a price ladder for quick trading & "real" tight spreads.
You prob need "a real broker" .. Issue is.. those are non-programmer unfriendly, needing you to write custom softwares to link up to their data feed.

Goodness.. is there a workaround for a programming idiot like me? As of now, I only know how to do small mods to existing code to suit my needs. Anything more complex like adding GBPSEK = 0_0

How can one with a non-programming background, progress onto writing api links??
I am thinking of signing up with "a real broker" and opening mt4 on the side.. quite idiotic.. I know

RE: redwed
Any idea how the LFX indicies are computed? I saw some guys saying geo-wt mean on other forums.
 
 
  • Post #191
  • Quote
  • Feb 26, 2016 6:05am Feb 26, 2016 6:05am
  •  redwed
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 387 Posts
Quoting econbizer
Disliked
I feel it is suicide to scalp flows with mt4 brokers. One would need a price ladder for quick trading & "real" tight spreads. You prob need "a real broker" .. Issue is.. those are non-programmer unfriendly, needing you to write custom softwares to link up to their data feed. Goodness.. is there a workaround for a programming idiot like me? As of now, I only know how to do small mods to existing code to suit my needs. Anything more complex like adding GBPSEK = 0_0 How can one with a non-programming background, progress onto writing api links?? I...
Ignored
I dont use them actively. I read much on hanover's post here. Many discussions/links to read strength/weakness are collected into single index in that 1st post.

For me, i like to read only 28 pairs,that is involving only USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, NZD, AUD and CAD.

According to hanover's, one of the most neat way to see all 8 is finviz. You can reach it here.

Once you see one currency is moving south, maybe you can search another currency that's moving north.

I do some snapshots before:

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And you see that big candle on EUR and USD?

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As long as we follow the finviz source, we can't never be wrong.

I have many approaches that can be used, and we don't need new indicators to be build. Only some patience in understanding the underlying calculation/formulation behind these indicators (Recent Strength Indicator thread).

If you would like me to explain more, just ask
 
1
  • Post #192
  • Quote
  • Apr 7, 2016 10:19am Apr 7, 2016 10:19am
  •  sigill
  • | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Member | 79 Posts
If there was a poll for best threads on FF, I would vote for this.
 
 
  • Post #193
  • Quote
  • May 16, 2016 7:40am May 16, 2016 7:40am
  •  econbizer
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: be curious like a cat | 78 Posts
unknown4x gave an intraday primer to how capital flows work for a "now" timeframe.

He left before finishing up on his "juicy" bit on how fx relates to gold, commods, stocks, bonds.
If you followed his teachings on trading "now" fx flows, you would have searched for the "strongest" & the "weakest" currencies to trade. This exactly applies to the fx-gold-commods-stocks-bonds relationship.

Welcome the carry trade, where funds look for the "cheapest (& relatively safe)" money source to borrow from, AND then investing this money into the "highest yielding (& relatively safe)" assets.

Example: Post 2007 recession saw this source of "cheapest (& safest)" money source being the USD. Fed flooded the world with USD capital, fuelling the previous carry trade of borrow USD - buy emerging market assets & any other higher yielding (& relatively safe) assets. The result is rising prices across multiple asset classes. On hindsight, you can see USDX stared to appreciate in 2015. Find out when did Fed first hinted interest rate hikes were on the way (of course privileged individuals who funded successful campaigns have the first bite). Post this hint announcement, funds started to unwind the borrow USD - buy EM carry trade, resulting in USD appreciation. The whips you see in USD are because of the Fed representatives dropping contrasting hints on whether they will hike rates again.

If you can identify where capital is moving from and to where, you can make money
 
1
  • Post #194
  • Quote
  • Aug 28, 2016 8:12pm Aug 28, 2016 8:12pm
  •  matts7
  • | Joined Aug 2016 | Status: Junior Member | 1 Post
Does anyone know how we can track unknown4x?
He need to be back here to educate us more on the 'money flow' lesson
he his taking us through.
 
 
  • Post #195
  • Quote
  • Nov 8, 2016 6:08am Nov 8, 2016 6:08am
  •  redwed
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 387 Posts
Quoting matts7
Disliked
Does anyone know how we can track unknown4x? He need to be back here to educate us more on the 'money flow' lesson he his taking us through.
Ignored
Apparently his last post in ff community is Apr 10 2013. That was 3 years ago.

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How about this? Noticed something 'juicy'?
 
 
  • Post #196
  • Quote
  • Nov 8, 2016 7:52am Nov 8, 2016 7:52am
  •  Tomcat98
  • | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 102 Posts
Quoting redwed
Disliked
{quote} Apparently his last post in ff community is Apr 10 2013. That was 3 years ago. {image} {image} How about this? Noticed something 'juicy'?
Ignored
Unless lots of traders trade from "Tuvalu" , unknown4x (http://www.forexfactory.com/unknown4x) could be Mingary (http://www.forexfactory.com/mingary). If not forget about that post. Anyway, Tuvalu is a beautiful south pacific archipelago.
Have a nice trading.
Tomcat98
 
 
  • Post #197
  • Quote
  • Nov 10, 2016 8:16am Nov 10, 2016 8:16am
  •  Pipalicious
  • Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Member | 887 Posts
Quoting redwed
Disliked
How about this? Noticed something 'juicy'?
Ignored
1) 'Strong' positive correlation between AUDxxx and NZDxxx relative to AUDNZD.

2) AUD (strong+) + NZD (strong++) = AUDNZD (down).

3) Easier money to be made somewhere else as both sides are relative strong.

Thats if your focusing efforts on the AUDNZD by comparing its subcrosses or trading a basket.

However i do believe this thread is golden, but does require a lot of thought and critical/methodical thinking.

Its like they say..."common sense is not that common" haha.
 
 
  • Post #198
  • Quote
  • Nov 10, 2016 7:05pm Nov 10, 2016 7:05pm
  •  redwed
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 387 Posts
Quoting Pipalicious
Disliked
{quote} 1) 'Strong' positive correlation between AUDxxx and NZDxxx relative to AUDNZD. 2) AUD (strong+) + NZD (strong++) = AUDNZD (down). 3) Easier money to be made somewhere else as both sides are relative strong. Thats if your focusing efforts on the AUDNZD by comparing its subcrosses or trading a basket. However i do believe this thread is golden, but does require a lot of thought and critical/methodical thinking. Its like they say..."common sense is not that common" haha.
Ignored
There's only ten charts.

So we divide them between two.

One is NZD, another is AUD.

NZDUSD is +18.
NZDAUD is+13
NZDCHF is +19
NZDJPY is +19
NZDCAD is +19.

Compared to AUD,

AUDCAD is +7.
AUDUSD +9
AUDNZD -13
AUDCHF +11
AUDJPY +11.

NZD is strengthening. AUD also is strengthening. But, whose strengthening is stronger?

We would want to avoid trading strong vs stronger. AUDNZD is not the perfect candidate. We see that NZD way too much stronger and NZD strength pull AUD below 13 pips.
 
 
  • Post #199
  • Quote
  • Nov 14, 2016 1:50pm Nov 14, 2016 1:50pm
  •  Pipalicious
  • Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Member | 887 Posts
Quoting redwed
Disliked
{quote} There's only ten charts. So we divide them between two. One is NZD, another is AUD. NZDUSD is +18. NZDAUD is+13 NZDCHF is +19 NZDJPY is +19 NZDCAD is +19. Compared to AUD, AUDCAD is +7. AUDUSD +9 AUDNZD -13 AUDCHF +11 AUDJPY +11. NZD is strengthening. AUD also is strengthening. But, whose strengthening is stronger? We would want to avoid trading strong vs stronger. AUDNZD is not the perfect candidate. We see that NZD way too much stronger and NZD strength pull AUD below 13 pips.
Ignored
Hi Redwed, yes i agree. NZD is stronger at least during the area between green/red line compared to the crosses you have shown. Its then a case of doing the mirror opposite to match the ideal candidate -> strong/weak // weak/strong.

But we also have to be aware that trading it and seeing it in hindsight is very different. Because even though a move can start of powerful it can (and does) evolve into different conditions. A powerful initial move is not neccesarily indicative of a powerful continuation - multiple outcomes do and will continue to exist.

So the key is knowing how to manage the trade once entry is executed, because good intentions dont always lead to good results.

What are your thoughts on this?
 
 
  • Post #200
  • Quote
  • Nov 14, 2016 7:59pm Nov 14, 2016 7:59pm
  •  mntiwana
  • Joined Mar 2013 | Status: Member | 2,392 Posts
Quoting redwed
Disliked
{quote} There's only ten charts. So we divide them between two. One is NZD, another is AUD. NZDUSD is +18. NZDAUD is+13 NZDCHF is +19 NZDJPY is +19 NZDCAD is +19. Compared to AUD, AUDCAD is +7. AUDUSD +9 AUDNZD -13 AUDCHF +11 AUDJPY +11. NZD is strengthening. AUD also is strengthening. But, whose strengthening is stronger? We would want to avoid trading strong vs stronger. AUDNZD is not the perfect candidate. We see that NZD way too much stronger and NZD strength pull AUD below 13 pips.
Ignored
====================================================================
Hi redwed
i just read some of your recent posts here,thinking of is it possible to trade with weakest ver strongest,the problem came where we don't know,if the currency is still in strong position or decreasing its value once open trade.
regards
 
 
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