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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #6,101
  • Mar 29, 2016 9:55am Mar 29, 2016 9:55am
Quoting shahab8b
Attractive RRR for a counter-trend short position at EURGBP, with a tight SL above 0.7950, targeting .78 and .77 in extension. {image}

EURGBP short trade looks good. Lets see if it hits our targets. When it reaches 0.78 I will move SL to B/E on the rest of position.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPusDaily.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP2.png Size: 71 KB
  • #6,102
  • Mar 29, 2016 10:09am Mar 29, 2016 10:09am
I like going short on USDCHF, SL can be placed above 0.98 (tight) or 0.99 (relaxed). TP below .9675
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFusDaily.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.PNG Size: 45 KB
  • #6,103
  • Mar 29, 2016 10:13am Mar 29, 2016 10:13am
Quoting shahab8b
I might go short USDJPY again. There is a bullish divergence, but the downtrend seems strong. {image}
I have not changed my bearish bias on USDJPY, still adding short positions with a SL above 115, targeting 111 and below.

P.S. The last week chart, but the picture remains the same imo.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY88.png Size: 41 KB
  • #6,104
  • Mar 29, 2016 3:24pm Mar 29, 2016 3:24pm
Quoting shahab8b
I like going short on USDCHF, SL can be placed above 0.98 (tight) or 0.99 (relaxed). TP below .9675 {image} {image}
The USDCHF short trade paid off pretty fast after hitting my target at 0.9675. I am still holding 1 position, targering below the recent low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFusDaily1.png Size: 42 KB
  • #6,105
  • Edited 7:27pm Mar 29, 2016 3:35pm | Edited 7:27pm
I have a long position on EURUSD as well, took it at 0.23 fib retracement with a bullish bias against 1.06. I was too lazy to post it here since not many people read this journal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD .png Size: 42 KB
  • #6,106
  • Mar 29, 2016 8:42pm Mar 29, 2016 8:42pm
Strong bear candle today at 113. Shorted there stop above 114.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 185 KB
  • #6,107
  • Mar 30, 2016 2:52am Mar 30, 2016 2:52am
Quoting shahab8b
I have a long position on EURUSD as well, took it at 0.23 fib retracement with a bullish bias against 1.06. I was too lazy to post it here since not many people read this journal. {image}
great Charts, great Setups. thanks for posting. usd/chf looks like moving to 0,75 chf.
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #6,108
  • Mar 30, 2016 7:42pm Mar 30, 2016 7:42pm
Alot of people read your post sir! keep the post coming! Are you still using the cot report on your daily trades?
  • #6,109
  • Apr 1, 2016 8:00am Apr 1, 2016 8:00am
Took profit on USD-JPY at 111.9 for +110 pips
  • #6,110
  • Edited 12:49pm Apr 1, 2016 12:38pm | Edited 12:49pm
Quoting ferndog
Took profit on USD-JPY at 111.9 for +110 pips
Well done! I took profit on some of my USDJPY short positions, still have 1 short open, targeting 111 and below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYus2.png Size: 55 KB
  • #6,111
  • Apr 1, 2016 12:39pm Apr 1, 2016 12:39pm
Quoting aserbfx
{quote} great Charts, great Setups. thanks for posting. usd/chf looks like moving to 0,75 chf.
Thank you!
agree, USDCHF still has some room to fall further.
  • #6,112
  • Apr 1, 2016 12:43pm Apr 1, 2016 12:43pm
Quoting urs
Alot of people read your post sir! keep the post coming! Are you still using the cot report on your daily trades?
Thank you.

As you see I am using daily or 4 hr TF to trade. Therefore, COT analysis comes handy. I have developed some algorithms that combines technical analysis with COT analysis, but I cant post them here for various reasons. So in just one word, I use COT but only as a supplementary tool to objective and subjective technical analysis. Not to forget one has to keep an eye on interest rates forecast as well.
  • #6,113
  • Apr 1, 2016 12:59pm Apr 1, 2016 12:59pm
Quoting shahab8b
Looking to go long AUDUSD, both price action and COT positioning indicate more AUD strength in mid-term. {image} {image}
As I mentioned before I have been bullish on AUDUSD, but now it may be the right time to switch to short for a quick counter-trend trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDusDail2y.png Size: 37 KB
  • #6,114
  • Apr 5, 2016 7:41am Apr 5, 2016 7:41am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} As I mentioned before I have been bullish on AUDUSD, but now it may be the right time to switch to short for a quick counter-trend trade. {image}
The AUDUSUD short trade update.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDusDaily22.png Size: 38 KB
  • #6,115
  • Apr 5, 2016 7:46am Apr 5, 2016 7:46am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Well done! I took profit on some of my USDJPY short positions, still have 1 short open, targeting 111 and below. {image}

The USDJPY short trade reached our target at 111.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYus2.png Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYusDaily.png Size: 53 KB
  • #6,116
  • Apr 5, 2016 7:59am Apr 5, 2016 7:59am
I am looking at EURCHF for a short trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHFusDaily.png Size: 28 KB
  • #6,117
  • Apr 5, 2016 9:24pm Apr 5, 2016 9:24pm
I see dollar strength. Selling aud/usd at 0.7550. SL at 0.7750.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 188 KB
  • #6,118
  • Edited 9:48am Apr 6, 2016 9:25am | Edited 9:48am
Quoting ferndog
I see dollar strength. Selling aud/usd at 0.7550. SL at 0.7750. {image}
Note that the overall mid-term trend is still up, I don't like the RRR for a short position at that level, but good luck anyway.

P.S. for the record I TP on my short AUDUSD position yesterday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDusDaily.png Size: 43 KB
  • #6,119
  • Apr 6, 2016 9:29am Apr 6, 2016 9:29am
GBPUSD looks to fall further short-term. Good setup for a quick intraday short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDusH1.png Size: 43 KB
  • #6,120
  • Apr 7, 2016 8:48am Apr 7, 2016 8:48am
Quoting ferndog
I see dollar strength. Selling aud/usd at 0.7550. SL at 0.7750. {image}
Took profit at 0.7510 for +40. See some support here so got out.
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