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  • #61
  • Apr 6, 2016 5:48am Apr 6, 2016 5:48am
Quoting sweetaction
{quote} alright good glad your on it, now patience is the key let it bounce around its fine. start taking profit at 15517. get most of it before 15500, this is the bottom of the small range its selling into, there is some room to go down after 155 but not worth risking your 85 pips or so for. Take profit move along Simon
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #62
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:06am Apr 6, 2016 6:06am
GJ trade Update

First round of longs get filled there is always guys that get in a couple of pips before the level.

I have had the majority filled at 15517 for my short position, close out and win of 84 pips, small runner for the second push down.

There is a lot of turnover at this level, could take a little while to sort it out. real battle between buyers and sellers.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #63
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:12am Apr 6, 2016 6:12am
GU Update

Looks to have had a bounce at this level 14065 (14066 according to my charts but who's counting), their is slippage to 14050, so there is room for push 2 here,

Notice the price action, if there was an imbalance like a big one we would already be 100 pips away from the level. If I am buyer at 14065 this is exactly the action I don't want to see, a limp push higher by 20 pips and a pause that's not good.

Read between the lines the shorts have it will just be a matter of time while the big cash uses retail traders to fill its short orders.

In fact this is a good time to look at volume on your charts I bet its going nuts ( i don't have it I have to pay for it on my charts) does it make sense to long it based on that I don't think so it would illustrate the point beautifully.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #64
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:26am Apr 6, 2016 6:26am
GU Update

I just had a mate ring me from a brokerage firm, he tells me that 68% of his clients are long GU,

Awesome dude thank you for that information, that means its definitely going lower, this is where you know the big cash is just using retail like pawns in a chess game.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #65
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:35am Apr 6, 2016 6:35am
Quoting sweetaction
GU Update Looks to have had a bounce at this level 14065 (14066 according to my charts but who's counting), their is slippage to 14050, so there is room for push 2 here, Notice the price action, if there was an imbalance like a big one we would already be 100 pips away from the level. If I am buyer at 14065 this is exactly the action I don't want to see, a limp push higher by 20 pips and a pause that's not good. Read between the lines the shorts have it will just be a matter of time while the big cash uses retail traders to fill its short orders....
Mr. Simon, can we categorize as imbalance with what just happened with gu ? a strong push down of about 50 pips
  • #66
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:35am Apr 6, 2016 6:35am
GU Again

Alright it happening quickly now

14030 touched big cash trying to break the spirit of the longs now

14025 and down the stop sell orders will start to get triggered.

Its a freight train don't stand on the line you will be squashed couldn't ask for better price action to explain my methods tonight hope you guys are getting this your very quiet

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #67
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:37am Apr 6, 2016 6:37am
Quoting goldtime
{quote} Mr. Simon, can we categorize as imbalance with what just happened with gu ? a strong push down of about 50 pips
sure but you need both sides to make a market

big cash was pushing those shorts to the area so retail would long it that explains the forceful nature of the approach.

When the bounce came from 14065 to only about 14085 this tell you everything if big money was longing this pair it would of fired back 100 pips not 20

see what I mean the players that count were only selling here, it was evident when the pair tried to go up.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #68
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:40am Apr 6, 2016 6:40am
Quoting sweetaction
{quote} sure but you need both sides to make a market big cash was pushing those shorts to the area so retail would long it that explains the forceful nature of the approach. When the bounce came from 14065 to only about 14085 this tell you everything if big money was longing this pair it would of fired back 100 pips not 20 see what I mean the players that count were only selling here, it was evident when the pair tried to go up. Simon
thanks a lot for this valuable insight Mr. Simon.
  • #69
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:49am Apr 6, 2016 6:49am
GJ Next Opportunity

Under 154.60 there is basically daylight until 153.00, no resistance to pull it up. I am not saying trade it. I am saying way up the opportunity that's presenting and take a look at the price action as we approach, with a clear and decisive break of 15515 this opens the path.

15470 is the last of this channel its working through so once that's done we will see where we go.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #70
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:52am Apr 6, 2016 6:52am
Quoting sweetaction
{quote} sure but you need both sides to make a market big cash was pushing those shorts to the area so retail would long it that explains the forceful nature of the approach. When the bounce came from 14065 to only about 14085 this tell you everything if big money was longing this pair it would of fired back 100 pips not 20 see what I mean the players that count were only selling here, it was evident when the pair tried to go up. Simon
Nicely explained. This is what I am looking at the min, don't think this level will hold today but will have to wait and watch. I will be more interested in the next level down.
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  • #71
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:59am Apr 6, 2016 6:59am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Nicely explained. This is what I am looking at the min, don't think this level will hold today but will have to wait and watch. I will be more interested in the next level down. {image}
so you need to think about the big picture now. that level you pointed to is gone already the low is 14025 as I write this.

Think about the bank trader again, what is he thinking now, I have busted open 14065, I have a ton of orders on my desk that are now filled, but once every 10 figures (meaning 1000 pips) i get a chance to break open a big round number like 14000 which is tantalizingly close, what do you do, you already have every retail trader covering their longs filling more of your shorts.

yep you keep going until the liquidity runs dry, why because if your boss comes out of his office and says how are you going, you say I am filling your orders at cheaper and cheaper prices.

Gold Star for you

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #72
  • Apr 6, 2016 7:08am Apr 6, 2016 7:08am
Quoting sweetaction
{quote} so you need to think about the big picture now. that level you pointed to is gone already the low is 14025 as I write this. Think about the bank trader again, what is he thinking now, I have busted open 14065, I have a ton of orders on my desk that are now filled, but once every 10 figures (meaning 1000 pips) i get a chance to break open a big round number like 14000 which is tantalizingly close, what do you do, you already have every retail trader covering their longs filling more of your shorts. yep you keep going until the liquidity runs...
and how would you guess liquidity is drying up, is it the pace of the move, where is stalls and stops ? What is the next level you will be watching in GU and GJ at the min ?
  • #73
  • Apr 6, 2016 7:16am Apr 6, 2016 7:16am
yep the pace and every short is met with a bigger long, you see it first in small tf charts first.

GU

We have clear air now to 13925, this is the next level it probably wont get there today but its the next one. If you look on a chart below 14030 and look to the left how much trading do you see in the past few weeks absolutely nothing, so a break 14000 goes into open space so what happens tomorrow to that same bank trader when his boss says we need to sell GU at 13900 today, what is he going to do.

GJ

Under 15460 there is clear air all the way top 15300 same story really as GU, why buy expensive when the pound is on sale all week.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #74
  • Apr 6, 2016 7:20am Apr 6, 2016 7:20am
GU

so we also now have peak cash for today where the US comes online with London still open.

This is what I think will happen just a guess

I think GU will base now and build a small range the balance will even out to allow this to happen equal buyers and sellers, with a slight bias to the long trade, then when the US comes online fully, game on 14000 will go, it may not hold today but i think if I am guessing the next few hours I think thats what it looks like

actually one more thing, see how GU came back up to the bottom of the range at 14040 and is stuck there totally deliberate, this I have seen before its like the sellers are reminding the market of who is in charge and that we will only allow it to go so far back.

see how it plays out.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #75
  • Apr 6, 2016 7:28am Apr 6, 2016 7:28am
Quoting sweetaction
GU so we also now have peak cash for today where the US comes online with London still open. This is what I think will happen just a guess I think GU will base now and build a small range the balance will even out to allow this to happen equal buyers and sellers, with a slight bias to the long trade, then when the US comes online fully, game on 14000 will go, it may not hold today but i think if I am guessing the next few hours I think thats what it looks like actually one more thing, see how GU came back up to the bottom of the range at 14040 and...
I like it how you explain it makes me and
  • #76
  • Apr 6, 2016 7:49am Apr 6, 2016 7:49am
Hi Simon,

great thread . Keep going on.
  • #77
  • Apr 6, 2016 4:12pm Apr 6, 2016 4:12pm
Good Morning/Evening All (wherever you may be)

Always rely on the unexpected I suppose in FX, in truth I forgot totally the minutes of the FOMC were being released, oh well that screwed up my NZD trade, took a certain winner back to break even, at least we had GJ last evening during London and EURAUD yesterday during Asia and London, so no complaints from me.

Yesterday's move on the US dollar underscores the need for Money management part of the big 3 i spoken at length about already, as you never know what might happen when big cash comes to the party.

Today is a new day, can't change history its gone now so we start with a fresh approach today.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #78
  • Apr 6, 2016 4:24pm Apr 6, 2016 4:24pm
Teach a man to fish

Today I will start doing what my original intention of this thread was and that's to teach a man to fish. I wish I had someone 20 years ago that could of taught me but anyway this is my open offer, no money being changed hands I am doing this because there is far too much information out there that is wrong and people try and make a dollar out of the unsuspecting but there are rules and conditions to my help:

1. You present your analysis and I will help you refine it, I am not a signal service, you have to do the work, when you present your charts, be clear about what you would like help with.
2. As you know I don't much look below a 1h chart, sometimes 30mins but for the most chart 1h and up tells you everything so I can't help you if you present me with 5 min or small TF charts, these are stupidly difficult to interpret just too much noise in my opinion.
3. Traders we are all one community here and all of us are at different levels in our life cycle, so regardless of how stupid a question you might think is being asked if you insult, or vilify anyone or have a go at anyone on my thread I will ban you, there is no such thing as a stupid question only a stupid idiot that attacks the person for asking the question. We all have different strengths please don't make those with less skill feel somewhat inferior I won't put up with that.

Teach a man to fish,

ask away

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
  • #79
  • Apr 6, 2016 5:02pm Apr 6, 2016 5:02pm
GU made a up move from the 4000 level (buyers are alive) and now a small retracement to the 4100 level
I think if price dont break the level down is a signal that the buyers are strong so we can expect a bullish direction and the 4445 level can be the next station.

What do you think Simon?
  • #80
  • Apr 6, 2016 5:10pm Apr 6, 2016 5:10pm
Quoting seahorse
GU made a up move from the 4000 level (buyers are alive) and now a small retracement to the 4100 level I think if price dont break the level down is a signal that the buyers are strong so we can expect a bullish direction and the 4445 level can be the next station. What do you think Simon?
I would say draw in your levels on a chart on how this might play out, this way we can analyse it, this way its clear,

its not about where its going eventually its only about where the big cash is parking their money next.

Simon
99% of Traders fail, so don't follow the herd
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