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AUD/USD

  • #96,281
  • Apr 5, 2016 8:25pm Apr 5, 2016 8:25pm
Quoting lioslim
{quote} I am pretty sure the Fed statement will be dovish(consider Yellen speach last Tuesday) The market just start pricing that, in case somehow the statement is hawkish it will be strong drop on aud/usd. But I really do not see any reason for hawkish statment, but never know like i said I am staying bullish until I do not see drop below 0.7475 Good luck to everyone!!!
Agreed given Yellen already expressed her "caution" in raising interest rate in that meeting, this FOMC meeting minutes wouldn't make much of a wave anymore UNLESS it contained something, some "sentiments" that's not known before. You never know, the market is on edge these days, one word could set the whole thing off.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #96,282
  • Apr 5, 2016 8:36pm Apr 5, 2016 8:36pm
Buying at 0.7540
Anticipating a HL on 5m etc
Finding bids off the 50% pullback
Stop tights will trail- target open will add
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  • #96,283
  • Apr 5, 2016 8:53pm Apr 5, 2016 8:53pm
Add more longs above previous support @ 0.75596
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  • #96,284
  • Apr 5, 2016 9:00pm Apr 5, 2016 9:00pm
Aussie to run stops and challenge yesterdays cash rate levels/liquidity

There's a reason they are called BUY-STOPS haha
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  • #96,285
  • Apr 5, 2016 9:06pm Apr 5, 2016 9:06pm
Quoting tunamelt
{quote} RBlackburn, may I ask where to get the weekly and daily pivot in my chart? I'm using FXCM MeTatrader 4 version 4.00 build 950 I tried searching for it previously but in vain Would you be kind enough to point me to the right direction this? I will be very grateful to you
No worries, hope it works for you.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ###Auto Pivot.mq4   15 KB | 274 downloads
  • #96,286
  • Apr 5, 2016 9:19pm Apr 5, 2016 9:19pm
Perched above the daily pivot - for now
Low for the week is likely set IMO
Good luck!
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  • #96,287
  • Apr 5, 2016 11:06pm Apr 5, 2016 11:06pm
Quoting 10cents
I found two levels of interest: 7550 - 7580 7660 - 7700 Either one of them may be the true support. Edit: I think we will get the answer by end of today's session or on monday's opening, which of the above two set of numbers is the true support.

Now we know the real support is at 7550 - 7580 level. Even if it goes below yesterday low, the pair will most likely be bought up quickly again.

Either the pair consolidates around this level with bulls buying any dip below before heading to 7760 - 7800 or we go up from here.

So only 2 levels to watch now 7550 and 7800.
  • #96,288
  • Apr 5, 2016 11:10pm Apr 5, 2016 11:10pm
Quoting bluetoss
fomc minutes due tonight, just tread carefully.

Unless there is anything new to print, the minutes usually won't create much volatility.
All recent minutes release days have been virtually stalemates.
  • #96,289
  • Apr 6, 2016 6:53am Apr 6, 2016 6:53am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} Now we know the real support is at 7550 - 7580 level. Even if it goes below yesterday low, the pair will most likely be bought up quickly again. Either the pair consolidates around this level with bulls buying any dip below before heading to 7760 - 7800 or we go up from here. So only 2 levels to watch now 7550 and 7800.
What made you sure that it would go up rather than drop to 7480 or even lower? I can see how it bounces between various levels but I can't see how to predict a level would hold.

Thanks, Karel.
  • #96,290
  • Apr 6, 2016 7:11am Apr 6, 2016 7:11am
Quoting karelk
{quote} What made you sure that it would go up rather than drop to 7480 or even lower? I can see how it bounces between various levels but I can't see how to predict a level would hold. Thanks, Karel.
its all in the past - take a look at how many times this level has been touched / how many touches it took to break through and if there are any confluences with this level, if so then the level is usually stronger - also take a look at the size of the move before the level was reached - if it was a big move in a short amount of time and the level held - its usually strong. also take note that if a level has been touched 3-4 times it may break on the next time...
  • #96,291
  • Apr 6, 2016 7:26am Apr 6, 2016 7:26am
Quoting Don96
{quote} its all in the past - take a look at ...
Many thanks - I'll have a look at it.
  • #96,292
  • Apr 6, 2016 7:02pm Apr 6, 2016 7:02pm
Quoting Blackopal
order pending long .7637
Quoting Blackopal
I'm sticking with the charts, not focused on news. I don't expect rate drop tomorrow. Still in uptrend. 4 hr chart shows good support this level, and at .76 there was very solid support during drop from NFP news. SL under .76
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Apologies, for being vague. SL is at .7581
Quoting Blackopal
.76 was an important support level March-July 2015, as well as currently. Long at .7607 triggered last night, and I'm watching now to take one more long this morning before Trade Balance released at 11:30. SL .751 to protect against a spike down if we have a rate drop
In the "interest of full disclosure"

I stuck with my plan to buy dips, but burned all my powder way too early. I took one more long at .7596. After that I unfortunately resisted the temptation to exceed my risk management rules and didn't buy at bottom where I should have.

I mentioned SL at .751. Ouch! Exactly where retrace stopped. Which was also EXACTLY the point of the last low point on the 4 HR before the Aussie made a big candle and big run to highs. Lucky number. Lucky for me because I decided that I would drop SL to .747, and put pending shorts there to cover a drop down to the daily uptrend line, which I saw as the last barrier to the retrace if .7575 broke. So I'm lucky, I had quite a lot of red on my open orders, turning blue now.
  • #96,293
  • Apr 6, 2016 7:57pm Apr 6, 2016 7:57pm
More bad news for the Australian economy with construction down
http://www.aigroup.com.au/portal/sit...tte.cachetoken

Yet the AUD defies gravity.
  • #96,294
  • Apr 6, 2016 9:06pm Apr 6, 2016 9:06pm
Quoting karelk
{quote} What made you sure that it would go up rather than drop to 7480 or even lower? I can see how it bounces between various levels but I can't see how to predict a level would hold. Thanks, Karel.

I believe every trader has their own unique method of plotting the highs and lows developed over time. It is not the same for everybody and there is every chance that the numbers are incorrect. Personally i use the highest and lowest close to work out the ranges for retraces and targets.
  • #96,295
  • Apr 6, 2016 9:09pm Apr 6, 2016 9:09pm
Quoting lasty
More bad news for the Australian economy with construction down http://www.aigroup.com.au/portal/sit...tte.cachetoken...

May not be only about AUD, there is dollar sellling across the board.
  • #96,296
  • Apr 7, 2016 4:33am Apr 7, 2016 4:33am
hmm Maybe??

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  • #96,297
  • Apr 7, 2016 4:46am Apr 7, 2016 4:46am
Quoting Barca
hmm Maybe??

I think its going to retest near the lows of this week and rebound up back to the 7550 - 7580 level. Consolidation still on-going.
  • #96,298
  • Apr 7, 2016 4:49am Apr 7, 2016 4:49am
Quoting Barca
hmm Maybe?? {image}
Had the same hope but after this lower leg... the S1 might hold it before the news anyway, then it depends on the news.
  • #96,299
  • Apr 7, 2016 5:36am Apr 7, 2016 5:36am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} I think its going to retest near the lows of this week and rebound up back to the 7550 - 7580 level. Consolidation still on-going.
I think it might even reach 0.7470, but that won't end the consolidation.
  • #96,300
  • Apr 7, 2016 5:38am Apr 7, 2016 5:38am
I had 0.76461 and 0.76298 as my last chances for long term short, may have missed them now, missed the very top by 7 aswell :/
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