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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #18,841
  • Apr 5, 2016 4:16pm Apr 5, 2016 4:16pm
Hey guys. Im still pretty far back in the thread but I have been trying to follow along with what has been posted as I am catching up. I dont know if it has been touched on yet, but what are yall using for tick charting on MT4? Ive played with the freely available tick chart creators around the forum but they are mostly unusable since you have to wait for the ticks to be created. Nothing really looks exactly the same in 15 minute charts either compared to what most of yall are posting.

Is ninjatrader really the only option?

Thanks guys. And thank you Mr. Pip.
  • #18,842
  • Apr 5, 2016 4:17pm Apr 5, 2016 4:17pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} However, when price closed below 78.6 (first Box) and started to go up again I got a bit confused and I missed the rally. I thought that if price close beyond 78.6 it is highly unlikely that we will see again highs. Is this correct or not? As a general rule I would agree with you except after price went from NSL to NSH then I would be expecting a deep correction before some continuation. Then check my order flow analysis to see if it supports my expectation. Your first highlighted box: There was some major support there which should warn...
Thank you very much Mack for your answer. Makes sense.
My confusion prevented me to consider any entry (e.g. after the big up move; the 1:1 Harmonic move down,...)
  • #18,843
  • Apr 5, 2016 4:42pm Apr 5, 2016 4:42pm
Quoting evocpr19
Last trade on Dow today. I missed the entry to go short on the last swing. Hence, I decided to wait for price coming down. At the end of the projection line I placed a pending order for long (E), since confluence also with zone. I prayed that the zone will hold. Price reversed and I exited at fib 38.2 (because already late): +31 points. {image}
I was eyeing that same countertrend trade however I haven't really tried trading the countertrend corrections yet.

Do you trade the corrections regularly? If so, what's been your experience?

I'm going to try it out tomorrow with a tight leash.
  • #18,844
  • Apr 5, 2016 4:47pm Apr 5, 2016 4:47pm
Quoting cardm3n
Hey guys. Im still pretty far back in the thread but I have been trying to follow along with what has been posted as I am catching up. I dont know if it has been touched on yet, but what are yall using for tick charting on MT4? Ive played with the freely available tick chart creators around the forum but they are mostly unusable since you have to wait for the ticks to be created. Nothing really looks exactly the same in 15 minute charts either compared to what most of yall are posting. Is ninjatrader really the only option? Thanks guys. And thank...
I don't use neither of ninjatrader or MT4 but im trading through IG (futures) and one of their advanced platforms allows for tick data. There is an indicator that shows tick data for MT4 posted here and there in this thread but I haven't tried it myself. However the 233 tick data usually looks pretty similar to the 5 min (depending on the pair you trade and its volatility).
Rise and rise again until lambs become lions
  • #18,845
  • Apr 5, 2016 4:58pm Apr 5, 2016 4:58pm
hey guys i'm new to Harmonic and trying to learn more.
these patterns you guys draw such as the bat and others, do you have a tool you use to draw them. If so, can someone give me a copy. thanks.
  • #18,846
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:06pm Apr 5, 2016 5:06pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} I got the first upmove on DOW, but not the second big one. I was a bit confused on the moves and finally I missed the entry for the big one. My trade went well (E was Entry). I did not expect a move beyond the 127 extension, since the line projection barely reached the extension line. Maybe somebody can explain me: However, when price closed below 78.6 (first Box) and started to go up again I got a bit confused and I missed the rally. I thought that if price close beyond 78.6 it is highly unlikely that we will see again highs. Is...
I thought the same thing but a while back Mr. Pip had said that it is weakened however doesn't necessarily put new highs out of the question.

Your first box came down to a nice demand zone. Your second box came down to the same zone but also had strong rotation up. I know, easy to say after the fact haha

I don't really see anything wrong with taking an entry at the 88.6 zone provided there is strong demand in the area and you see a solid rotation. It also allows for excellent stop placement because you can keep it super tight if you place it right under the 88.6 or even just below the 100%.

That said, if price retraces 100% for a retest then I will not try and trade that no matter what.
  • #18,847
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:32pm Apr 5, 2016 5:32pm
Quoting jmezz
{quote} I was eyeing that same countertrend trade however I haven't really tried trading the countertrend corrections yet. Do you trade the corrections regularly? If so, what's been your experience? I'm going to try it out tomorrow with a tight leash.
Hi jmezz,

i tought that I try it if the demand zone really holds and it did. To be honest, I was really praying that it will hold, since the whole move (down+rotation+up) was very fast and strong.
I would not have the time to enter at a good price manually.

With regard to experience, it is the first time that I did it intentionally on a demand zone (safest place).
In the past, countertrends worked not always, but it was before Mr. Pip.
Sorry, currently I cannot tell you about lot of experience.
  • #18,848
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:39pm Apr 5, 2016 5:39pm
Quoting cardm3n
Hey guys. Im still pretty far back in the thread but I have been trying to follow along with what has been posted as I am catching up. I dont know if it has been touched on yet, but what are yall using for tick charting on MT4? Ive played with the freely available tick chart creators around the forum but they are mostly unusable since you have to wait for the ticks to be created. Nothing really looks exactly the same in 15 minute charts either compared to what most of yall are posting. Is ninjatrader really the only option? Thanks guys. And thank...
Hi cardm3m,

I use Tickcharts for MT4 (you can look at my post). Today it is supposed to represent a 162 Tickchart.
If you look at charts of me from last week, the setting was 233 Tickchart.
The indicator is free to try for a limited time. I do not remember out of my head the name of it, but it was posted by crixus some 10-15 pages before.
If you cannot find it, tell me.
  • #18,849
  • Apr 5, 2016 8:25pm Apr 5, 2016 8:25pm
Quoting Mr_Burns
{quote} I don't use neither of ninjatrader or MT4 but im trading through IG (futures) and one of their advanced platforms allows for tick data. There is an indicator that shows tick data for MT4 posted here and there in this thread but I haven't tried it myself. However the 233 tick data usually looks pretty similar to the 5 min (depending on the pair you trade and its volatility).
I read somewhere (I think Mr. Pip mentioned it) that the 233T is the same as a 15 minute TF so that is what I have been using. It looks somewhat similar. I will try using 5min when I compare. Im more comfortable with 5 min anyway. Thanks.
  • #18,850
  • Apr 5, 2016 8:34pm Apr 5, 2016 8:34pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Hi cardm3m, I use Tickcharts for MT4 (you can look at my post). Today it is supposed to represent a 162 Tickchart. If you look at charts of me from last week, the setting was 233 Tickchart. The indicator is free to try for a limited time. I do not remember out of my head the name of it, but it was posted by crixus some 10-15 pages before. If you cannot find it, tell me.
I think I know which one you are talking about. I downloaded it to try it, but I only had like 2 days left on the trial before it expired by the time I found it. I can't find it among all my other (useless) indicators now though. In any case, I didnt pay too much mind to it since even it was not matching up to the charts posted here. How close does it resemble what other posts for you? The thing I find irritating is not being able to find where in my charts the other people are placing their examples because they look too different.....First world problems I guess.

So....Whats the name again? lol I seriously cant find it in my folder :nerd:
  • #18,851
  • Apr 5, 2016 9:55pm Apr 5, 2016 9:55pm
Quoting djbenny1
Guys - another question here regarding entries. Obviously we are taught to wait for a nice reversal bar (in our direction) to close before we enter. However these bars are often quite strong and as such not only are you losing out on pips, but you are increasing your risk assuming you put your SL just beyond the structure / fib level you got the bounce off of. Could an alternative entry strategy be to enter at the sign of strong support / resistance at that same level, rather than increasing the pips at stake by waiting? I am sure this would result...
The reason you enter at rotation is to provide evidence and confidence that your analysis is correct. I use to trade just patterns and blindly set my orders at completion only to watch then bust after bust after bust. once and awhile they would turn sharply at their respected levels but it felt like gambling.

we want to filter out the bad trades.

But there are some alternative methods. be aware tho that each has its pros and cons

Method 1: as price decelerates into your kill zone ,wait for price to stall out then enter. R:R is great but the success of your set up has not been determined so you'll be scratched out more. I found with this method tho, that price would zig before zag which had me exit early before turning mostly because my stops were to tight.

Method 2: Multiple rejections. wait for the clear reject then enter. It will be bigger then the rest or more significant. This could leave you with a huge tail for your stops placement.

Method 3: Depending on PA, sometimes price will sling back then push forward. You can wait for the retrace. Cons: price can leave without you and this type of PA is not as convincing as price just pushing ahead. I would rather it just push forward.

Method 4: Enter Blindly.... not a method I use

Method 5: Enter early before candle close. so, when PA hits your kill zone, price might look like its making a mini consolidation as Bull/Bear battle for control. You can enter on the break out or a few pips above while the candles forming. Con: A lot of these are fakes and now your in a shit trade.

Method 6: tighter stops
a)wait for the rotation but have tighter stops. Say 5/10/15 pips.
b)I use to just exit if the next candle or candles didn't go in my favor.
c)Tight B/E. So, if I reached 5/10 pips profit I would just go to B/E. This kept me out of a lot of trades that should of been winners but some losers as well.

So as you can see there are pros and cons to each strategy. A couple of things you need to consider before testing entry strategy are;
a) commission: when I used super tight stops combined with a tight B/E, my commissions were disgusting.
b) psychology: do you think you can hit a dozen or 2 dozen trades in a row that are B/E or losers. or watch multiple B/E go on to be winners. Personally, it warms my ego to know that I'm better then 50 % (even though all that really matters is if I make money or not).

I've tried most of these methods. some I still use but its on the rare occasion.

P.S. I'm sure I've missed some other strategies
  • #18,852
  • Apr 6, 2016 12:31am Apr 6, 2016 12:31am
Good morning traders

EURUSD 15M
Momentum NSL is still strong

Locked in 6pips now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,853
  • Apr 6, 2016 1:49am Apr 6, 2016 1:49am
Hi all,
expectation in UJ for me is still for a NSL so I've shorted again , let's see how it goes...
Two trades took (showed in screenshot), the first one stopped out at -5 pips (too much aggressive trailing could have been around +60 pips) and the second closed at BE (also could have been +20 pips), all in all I'm happy that my expectations were confirmed (maybe just luck? )

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ_06Apr2016_1.jpg Size: 79 KB


Cheers,
Skyline
  • #18,854
  • Edited 2:42am Apr 6, 2016 2:25am | Edited 2:42am
Goodmorning traders,

Short cable 233 tick, atm at BE.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EDIT:

BE + 8 at retrace.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EDIT2:

Taken out at +8
  • #18,855
  • Apr 6, 2016 2:45am Apr 6, 2016 2:45am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} But as for the right entry to capture the bigger swing, I too get confused or don't know how to interpret when price swings go from one extreme to the other. Like the big swing you missed. price went from being overall bearish and putting in a NSL to a NSH then switched back to NSL before swinging to another NSH. Obviously prices is telling us of the increase in volatility but not the overall direction. I think all you can do is revert back to what is your L/T expectations. I hope maybe someone else with more success can add to this......
I too have a problem with price ignoring expectations or setting up new expectations constantly, however you want to put it. I guess, you can either stick with the overall epectation or change it with every new swing that fails the old expectation. I have not traded enoough to be able to give a statistical answer to what is better. The great traders, referrencing to Damian in his videos, seem to be able to see the price action and orderflow more fluently and think less in the overall extremes that are trends or in our terminology expectations. So if we get better, we hopefully can estimate better how realistic an expectation is, what is likely to happen after a failed or some failed expectations and adjust accordingly. This is the high art of Damian's method I think and strict mechanical rules reach their limitations. So just prcatice practice practice, I guess. But any insight from more experienced traders into their techniques is highly welcome obviously!
  • #18,856
  • Apr 6, 2016 2:49am Apr 6, 2016 2:49am
Went short here on EURUSD:

http://i.imgur.com/y9LOoKC.png

It is a huge support and resistance zone on the 15M chart, so I am trailing rather aggressively from one mini-S/R to another , because price is likely to get rejected.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,857
  • Edited 3:53am Apr 6, 2016 3:00am | Edited 3:53am
Was taken out on EURUSD with tight trailing stop for some gain.

Went short on GBPUSD:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EDIT: With the small higher low broken through I moved to BE+some.
EDIT2: Moved to last S/R.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EDIT3: Price reached my 127-Fib extension at 1.40900 - trailing aggressively from last candle close now.
EDIT4: Taken out - still looking for shorts on EURUSD and GBPUSD.
  • #18,858
  • Edited 4:52am Apr 6, 2016 4:11am | Edited 4:52am
EURUSD 15M UPDATE

Locked in 26 points
Break below 1.1340 will make a NSL
Momentum downside still strong
TP-1.1320 (previous strong support)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,859
  • Edited 5:34am Apr 6, 2016 5:14am | Edited 5:34am
Short EURUSD, BE atm. Had a small SL of 5 pips, it almost got hit. Initial TP on 1:1 Projection but will trail accordingly.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EDIT:

Moved SL to BE + 5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,860
  • Apr 6, 2016 5:44am Apr 6, 2016 5:44am
Quoting kaboemm
Short EURUSD, BE atm. Had a small SL of 5 pips, it almost got hit. Initial TP on 1:1 Projection but will trail accordingly. {image} EDIT: Moved SL to BE + 5 {image}
Im short too, but got in with worse R/R from next bearish candle, also had SL almost hit. Managing similarly.
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