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The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,781
  • Apr 5, 2016 4:03am Apr 5, 2016 4:03am
Quoting hoom
1.134x check >> 1.149x >> 1.129x
first target tested and we bounced ...atm 1.137x .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #139,782
  • Apr 5, 2016 9:53am Apr 5, 2016 9:53am
Quoting hoom
{quote} first target tested and we bounced ...atm 1.137x .
lol so we will go to 1.149x and then fall 200 pips. wow. I wonder how you were in mathematics??
  • #139,783
  • Apr 5, 2016 10:09am Apr 5, 2016 10:09am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} lol so we will go to 1.149x and then fall 200 pips. wow. I wonder how you were in mathematics??
why not? any reason?
  • #139,784
  • Apr 5, 2016 10:10am Apr 5, 2016 10:10am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} lol so we will go to 1.149x and then fall 200 pips. wow. I wonder how you were in mathematics??
I don't understand this comment
  • #139,785
  • Apr 5, 2016 11:18am Apr 5, 2016 11:18am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} lol so we will go to 1.149x and then fall 200 pips. wow. I wonder how you were in mathematics??
I wonder how you're still in this business if you're really in at all .
put aside your 'valuable" contribution , I explained my map and not willing to argue with you .

Quoting hoom
looking at weekly calender , USD side says EURUSD higher going into FOMC ...Tomorrow light data EUR side with a better forecast US data so the dip could occur but not under breakout levels check
Quoting hoom
above 1.149x is steel resistance and air since china rally , not likely to break without trigger
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #139,786
  • Apr 5, 2016 11:57am Apr 5, 2016 11:57am
Interesting, but we have not had a 4HR close above the .1400 handle since early last Friday. Looking at another hour close again under the .1400 handle. hmmmmmmm
  • #139,787
  • Edited 1:23pm Apr 5, 2016 12:43pm | Edited 1:23pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Interesting, but we have not had a 4HR close above the .1400 handle since early last Friday. Looking at another hour close again under the .1400 handle. hmmmmmmm
That's true. Nor one under 1344 since early Thursday.
  • #139,788
  • Apr 5, 2016 2:21pm Apr 5, 2016 2:21pm
Eyes on US equities, S&P @ 2050.xx for the closing range. 2100.xx on sight for the FED minutes ...

On the rest of the board, no surprises, UJ rolling, Euro uneventful and OIL sitting at key 36.5x for those aiming for the extended leg ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,789
  • Apr 5, 2016 2:46pm Apr 5, 2016 2:46pm
Quoting sisse
... Current Euro price @ 1.139x (elapsed time 0 days 0 hours)
A flat day in the Euro but with a very bullish roll in the making. Offers raised and stops at the highs naked for tomorrow. For the first update on the
exercise 1.134x tested half way through the sell target but we bounced rather quickly ... we are back to square one so all positions alive....

++++ Quick Call [update 1]++++

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.138x (elapsed time 1 days 0 hours)


Quoting chester123

-> LMT BUY to 1.149x

Quoting hoom

-> LMT BUY to 1.149x

Quoting goosebone

-> LMT BUY to 1.149x



------------------------------------ ---------


Quoting IMARICH1

-> LMT SELL to 1.129x

Quoting Rockerzeus

-> LMT SELL to 1.129x


--> Question/Tip for IMARICH1 (no need to reply here)

Does waiting for a mover and shaker in the week [FOMC minutes this week for example] (despite the direction or the actual FA) start making any sense for timing for a small trade like this? ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,790
  • Apr 5, 2016 3:12pm Apr 5, 2016 3:12pm
Yes, it matters for better positioning and direction to wait as you can see how the market is positioning for it. However, you have to have a sense of expectation of market direction with this FA as well. I am not good at knowing MARKET SENTIMENT OR EXPECTATIONS. You understand EXPECTATIONS far better than most and this helps you MAP out your trades. I would love to learn this as well.

I would assume the FOMC Minutes are not going to say anything different than what YELLEN has been saying other than a few participants thinking a RATE raise should be looked more closely with current US DATA and CHINA crisis not as concerning at the moment with their good numbers and appears they will not cut their rate and do more QE.

For example, you think the ROLL today is BULLISH. I think it was BEARISH with the fact we have closed under the .1400 handle since last Friday. Where is the momentum going to come from to break thru? I would think it would come from a larger pullback on that kind of resistance above at .147X/9X.

But, you said offers have been raised......HOW DO YOU KNOW? What are looking at to know this? And, why are the HIGHS NAKED? Because they have not been tested? I think there are better levels to be tested below such as stops and the fact we have had a 1000 pip move form .04XX to .144X.

As you can see, I see things not to clear......which is probably why I am wrong on PA going to .1290 first. It made sense to me.
  • #139,791
  • Apr 5, 2016 3:31pm Apr 5, 2016 3:31pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Yes, it matters for better positioning and direction to wait as you can see how the market is positioning for it. However, you have to have a sense of expectation of market direction with this FA as well. I am not good at knowing MARKET SENTIMENT OR EXPECTATIONS. You understand EXPECTATIONS far better than most and this helps you MAP out your trades. I would love to learn this as well. I would assume the FOMC Minutes are not going to say anything different than what YELLEN has been saying other than a few participants thinking a RATE raise should...
imarichi...do u look at the dollar index? looking at the euro on its own may not be helping...today on H4 dollar index was unable to clear a mini swing high, so dolalr index will probably sweep the lows or make a new swing low, in which case euro would potentially go higher...if ur a fib person...then dollar index on daily from last swing high to swing low, it hasnt even been able to retrace to 38.2% fib level, so pretty weak overall...sure FOMC could be a catalyst to clear that...dollar index has been going sideaways for quite a while, it may need to gain some buyers at channel bottom before resuming uptrend...and in a crisis dollar tends to get bought, if sisse thinking crisis coming end of summer or end of year...wouldnt the fed want dollar as cheap as possible to prevent a major rise in dollar effecting emerging markets and china
  • #139,792
  • Edited 5:11pm Apr 5, 2016 3:51pm | Edited 5:11pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Does waiting for a mover and shaker in the week [FOMC minutes this week for example] (despite the direction or the actual FA) start making any sense for timing for a small trade like this? ... sisse
I'll take that tip. I definitely feel I should have waited to enter my long til FOMC. Thought we'd be higher by today with a safe distance from the event but now i see a good chance I'm stopped out with the knee-jerk then wish I could get a do-over entering lower when the reaction clears to move higher.
  • #139,793
  • Apr 5, 2016 3:56pm Apr 5, 2016 3:56pm
Quoting IMARICH1
...I would assume the FOMC Minutes are not going to say anything different than what YELLEN has been saying other than a few participants thinking a RATE rain.....
On the FA,

I wont give you my view ...otherwise it will be useless.

So if "FOMC Minutes are not going to say anything different than what YELLEN..." is your expectations:

First and very importantly: Why do you doubt your analysis?
Second, for a minute fck sisse FA, or xx FA or bloomberg, FT, or whoever ... If that is your expectations, MAP IT !!! and trade IT !!! ...otherwise you will never learn. For the case of the current example just map it for tomorrow here in the thread right now and trade it DEMO tomorrow if you want ...we discuss later ...

Quote
...For example, you think the ROLL today is BULLISH. I think it was BEARISH with the fact we have closed under the .1400 handle since last Friday. Where is the momentum going to come from to break thru? I would think it would come from a larger pullback on that kind of resistance above at .147X/9X.

On the TA,

Thats what I am trying to show you with this exercise but i wont chew it for you as if you don't get it in our own terms, time and TA explanations IT WONT HELP and you WONT make it !!!!.

Only tip, smart money wont sit in ANY MARKET like sitting ducks in the lows or highs when an expected event is about to play ....tomorrow is a soft report not a key one but in general even ALGOS are turned off during high KEY volatility reports and in general large moving hands would have cleared or loaded way before not during the event...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,794
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:26pm Apr 5, 2016 5:26pm
Hi Sisse,
In regards to this quote, "A flat day in the Euro but with a very bullish roll in the making. Offers raised and stops at the highs naked for tomorrow."
Is it the case that the market moved up from 1.134x, removing limit orders on the offer side, therefore leaving little space between stops at the highs. And the stops will be the catalyst for a bullish move tomorrow..maybe towards the 1.149x area.
Or is it more complicated than that TA wise?

On these quotes, "Does waiting for a mover and shaker in the week [FOMC minutes this week for example] (despite the direction or the actual FA) start making any sense for timing for a small trade like this? ..." ...."Only tip, smart money wont sit in ANY MARKET like sitting ducks in the lows or highs when an expected event is about to play ....tomorrow is a soft report not a key one but in general even ALGOS are turned off during high KEY volatility reports and in general large moving hands would have cleared or loaded way before not during the event..."
Would the answer be no, because your stop could easily be taken out with no large liquidity in the way. Or is it more complicated.
Regards,
David.
  • #139,795
  • Apr 6, 2016 1:32am Apr 6, 2016 1:32am
little pullback on the bull road Tuesday, now oil getting bid overnight, let's see if that continues Wednesday, mix in some doveish FOMC minutes....et voila...the risk rally remains intact? we'll see, but I am betting oui, and I also think a $35 floor for wti sounds about right, with new highs for 2016 close by.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,796
  • Apr 6, 2016 3:56am Apr 6, 2016 3:56am
Quoting sisse
{quote} sisse
Hi sisse, hows your mid/long tern outlook on recent commodity rising?
Do you think it can continue to stay inflated?
  • #139,797
  • Apr 6, 2016 4:40am Apr 6, 2016 4:40am
Bottom is in for USD, lets see some downards EU action. Looking for bear setups. (mid term only)
  • #139,798
  • Apr 6, 2016 5:59am Apr 6, 2016 5:59am
Back to 134× not looking good for our team atm
  • #139,799
  • Apr 6, 2016 7:53am Apr 6, 2016 7:53am
Quoting janpec1000
Bottom is in for USD, lets see some downards EU action. Looking for bear setups. (mid term only)
Close to low of the weekly range..USDX may hold above 9500 for the daily close which will give a higher swing low on the htf weekly... very early call tho.. GL..
  • #139,800
  • Apr 6, 2016 9:34am Apr 6, 2016 9:34am
sisse writes:
...otherwise you will never learn. For the case of the current example just map it for tomorrow here in the thread right now and trade it DEMO tomorrow if you want ...we discuss later ...

Here are the levels I am watching. I have circled areas to BUY (BLUE)if Outlook was BUY (Buy from inside to outside); If Outlook was to SELL (RED)(Sell from Extreme Tops to inside Targets); If Outlook is Neutral (RED)(Fade the Top/Bottom to the inside BUT NOT to the center of Leg)-I would not FADE (buy) on the SHORT (SELL) side at extremes due to the kind of move this could have very quickly since MID and LONG TERM LEGS would be in PLAY.

This is my thinking......This is my MAP; This is MY DESIGN.

Stronger Dovish Tone: .1380-->.149X-->ext. .17XX
Dovish Tone: .1380-->.149X
Slight Hawkish Tone .1380-->.1240-->ext to .1217
Hawkish Tone of possible JUNE rates .1380-->.1240--.1140--ext. .1058

_____.18XX (STEEL STRONG)-----_____.171x(STRONGER)------_____.149x(STRONG)------____.1240(SUPPORT)-----____.1140(SUPPORT)------_____.107x (SUPPORT/FLIP)------_____.097x(FLIP)------_____.0807(MOMENTUM)-----____.0535(MOMENTUM)-------EXT TO .0420 TO .02xx (TARGET)
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