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AUD/USD

  • #96,261
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:11am Apr 5, 2016 5:11am
AUD USD top lies somewhere in range of 7800-8000, ain't a visionary, just saying what I see atm. AUD USD and NU both got until 4th week of April to rally higher, onwards from that date USD strength should come back and crush commod currencies. Let's see how it goes, should be good fun.
  • #96,262
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:18am Apr 5, 2016 5:18am
Quoting asgcorp
we ain't seen the top yet guys hold on a second.
The top was in July of 2011. I have seen it and used it to my advantage. What we really didn't see is the bottom. ))
  • #96,263
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:22am Apr 5, 2016 5:22am
ok look no pun intended here, just my 2 cents. check out COT data on AU and UCAD and then also check the seasonality. Timing is off to go short AU.
  • #96,264
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:24am Apr 5, 2016 5:24am
Is it time to buy?
Don't give up
  • #96,265
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:26am Apr 5, 2016 5:26am
fundies also are not there yet, there is no imminent rate hike in oz also fed rate hike looming but not before june. You have a window of opportunity still until end of April and the momentum also on upside still. What's the big event that will crush AU currently? There is none. Until we see AU print above 7750-7800 we ain't seen the top yet.

Current recommended strat: buying dips.
  • #96,266
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:27am Apr 5, 2016 5:27am
Quoting geomink
Is it time to buy?
not yet. look for AU to hit MP -20-30 points will find support there. Wait until wednesday for a meaningful reversal. AU and UCAD also.
  • #96,267
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:30am Apr 5, 2016 5:30am
I am 100% bearish on this pair in the mid/long term but anybody thinking this is the start of the major inevitable downturn is a bit premature.
  • #96,268
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:35am Apr 5, 2016 5:35am
Quoting galvcore
I am 100% bearish on this pair in the mid/long term but anybody thinking this is the start of the major inevitable downturn is a bit premature.
my point exactly. we haven't hit any solid meaningful resistance on weekly yet. solid resistance is in 7950-8100 area.
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  • #96,269
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:49am Apr 5, 2016 5:49am
EW H4 count on AUD USD. wave 5 in progress. trade accordingly.
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  • #96,270
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:54am Apr 5, 2016 5:54am
It looks solid enough to me but Ive been wrong before. For me i think longs are risky.
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20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,271
  • Apr 5, 2016 6:11am Apr 5, 2016 6:11am
your monthly pivot is wrong

https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points
  • #96,272
  • Apr 5, 2016 6:15am Apr 5, 2016 6:15am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} Wait until wednesday for a meaningful reversal. AU and UCAD also.
What's going to drive this?
  • #96,273
  • Apr 5, 2016 6:22am Apr 5, 2016 6:22am
Quoting asgcorp
your monthly pivot is wrong https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points
I dont trust dailyfx their annalists dont know shit.
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20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,274
  • Apr 5, 2016 10:25am Apr 5, 2016 10:25am
AU is currently in a VERY tight range. The short-term trend is upward and it wants to go up but it's not sure it doesn't know what to do so the price action is VERY sluggish unless there is major econ. numbers or news. Very difficult to trade and very hard to set stops.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #96,275
  • Apr 5, 2016 10:58am Apr 5, 2016 10:58am
I'm waiting to see whether it will break below 0.7500 so I can open new shorts.
  • #96,276
  • Apr 5, 2016 4:52pm Apr 5, 2016 4:52pm
i am buying the dips, There is a bullish engulfing pattern on 4h chart , it also 23% Fibo on 4h chart, going below 0.7475(need to 4h candle close)will stop the uptrend. Until that happen I am buying. its a good opportunity , tp is 0.774. pretty good ratio consider the stop will be just below 0.7475
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  • #96,277
  • Apr 5, 2016 4:58pm Apr 5, 2016 4:58pm
fomc minutes due tonight, just tread carefully.
  • #96,278
  • Apr 5, 2016 5:14pm Apr 5, 2016 5:14pm
Quoting bluetoss
fomc minutes due tonight, just tread carefully.
I am pretty sure the Fed statement will be dovish(consider Yellen speach last Tuesday) The market just start pricing that, in case somehow the statement is hawkish it will be strong drop on aud/usd. But I really do not see any reason for hawkish statment, but never know
like i said I am staying bullish until I do not see drop below 0.7475

Good luck to everyone!!!
  • #96,279
  • Apr 5, 2016 6:31pm Apr 5, 2016 6:31pm
Aussie can make a new lower low to 0.6550 in two months. Traders will start to talk about Fed for june decision.
  • #96,280
  • Apr 5, 2016 8:13pm Apr 5, 2016 8:13pm
Another way to look at it, 4 HR TL broken and tested
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