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AUD/USD

  • #96,201
  • Apr 3, 2016 9:19pm Apr 3, 2016 9:19pm
Once again economic data reflecting how poorly the Australian economy is right now.

Lets see what tomorrow brings with Interest rates decision.

RBA needs to act with a cut for to reasons ..

1) to spur local economic activity

2) to take the heat out of the Aussie strength.

Failure to do will present a stronger currency being detrimental to our weak export market.
  • #96,202
  • Apr 3, 2016 9:22pm Apr 3, 2016 9:22pm
Quoting Blackopal
order pending long .7637

Looks like support building around your entry price. I'm seeing some support on GU as well.
This 7650 level seems to be the consolidation area.
  • #96,203
  • Apr 3, 2016 9:56pm Apr 3, 2016 9:56pm
Quoting lasty
Once again economic data reflecting how poorly the Australian economy is right now. Lets see what tomorrow brings with Interest rates decision. RBA needs to act with a cut for to reasons .. 1) to spur local economic activity 2) to take the heat out of the Aussie strength. Failure to do will present a stronger currency being detrimental to our weak export market.
And looks like the housing market is next to collapse
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,204
  • Apr 3, 2016 10:06pm Apr 3, 2016 10:06pm
I'm sticking with the charts, not focused on news. I don't expect rate drop tomorrow. Still in uptrend. 4 hr chart shows good support this level, and at .76 there was very solid support during drop from NFP news. SL under .76
  • #96,205
  • Apr 3, 2016 10:24pm Apr 3, 2016 10:24pm
Shane Oliver is about the only one to predict a rate cut https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Also on sky news this morning Aussie banks putting in short orders.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,206
  • Apr 3, 2016 11:58pm Apr 3, 2016 11:58pm
Where is the guy advocating 'Sell no matter what' at .68xx? Right, he disappeared.

'I don't see any long signal Daily chart at .68xx'
  • #96,207
  • Apr 4, 2016 12:24am Apr 4, 2016 12:24am
Quoting Ken A
Where is the guy advocating 'Sell no matter what' at .68xx? Right, he disappeared. 'I don't see any long signal Daily chart at .68xx'
who cares???
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,208
  • Apr 4, 2016 12:55am Apr 4, 2016 12:55am
Well wheeler caught us off-guard last rate drop for the Kiwi (which is now trading well above where it was beforehand - oops). Maybe they'll do the ol' one-two and move in cahoots with each other.

Here are the daily zero coupon yield curves from march last year to end of march this year (so only a few days missing for Apr). Essentially it's just daily yield curves for Aus bonds in 3d out to 10 yrs.

View 1:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 148 KB


View 2:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.png Size: 87 KB


View 3:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.png Size: 103 KB


Conclusion: Can't see much prep for a cut. But that doesn't mean the AUD won't tank or rise when rates are held steady.

:
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #96,209
  • Apr 4, 2016 2:14am Apr 4, 2016 2:14am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} And looks like the housing market is next to collapse
And it will. Look closely at Perth, others will follow.
  • #96,210
  • Apr 4, 2016 2:15am Apr 4, 2016 2:15am
Quoting Ken A
Where is the guy advocating 'Sell no matter what' at .68xx? Right, he disappeared. 'I don't see any long signal Daily chart at .68xx'
Don't worry. You'll see 0,65 and lower. It just takes time.
  • #96,211
  • Apr 4, 2016 2:38am Apr 4, 2016 2:38am
currently seems to be risk off ahead of the RBA meeting and with likely scenario that there is no cut should see some sort of bounce then. Other interesting point should be what happens at 76c given it bounced from there last time on 4h chart and tomorrow's news 3 hours before RBA decision.

Have a plan for either direction and stick to it - if you are not comfortable with price action then your position size is too big for your experience!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #96,212
  • Apr 4, 2016 3:31am Apr 4, 2016 3:31am
This pair is clearly losing steam. I think we will have a trading range now between 0.75 and 0.77 until fundamentals reveal the AUD is too high, then it's deep South for the remainder of the year.
  • #96,213
  • Apr 4, 2016 3:38am Apr 4, 2016 3:38am
I put a pending long in earlier at .7601. It turned back up before that could be reached. Order stands
  • #96,214
  • Apr 4, 2016 3:56am Apr 4, 2016 3:56am
Quoting Blackopal
I put a pending long in earlier at .7601. It turned back up before that could be reached. Order stands

Didn't you just mention that your SL is under 7600? Buying again just above your SL.......... ???
  • #96,215
  • Edited 4:18am Apr 4, 2016 4:06am | Edited 4:18am
Quoting dab
currently seems to be risk off ahead of the RBA meeting and with likely scenario that there is no cut should see some sort of bounce then. Other interesting point should be what happens at 76c given it bounced from there last time on 4h chart and tomorrow's news 3 hours before RBA decision. Have a plan for either direction and stick to it - if you are not comfortable with price action then your position size is too big for your experience!

I have the midpoint at 7650. Does not look like it is bouncing off 7600 as a support, PA suggesting that it is alternating 50 pips both sides of 7650.
Other 2 important levels are 7550 below and 7780 above.

So in this order 7550, 7650 and 7780-800. We have to see if the numbers are relevant as the action unfolds.
  • #96,216
  • Apr 4, 2016 4:08am Apr 4, 2016 4:08am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} Didn't you just mention that your SL is under 7600? Buying again just above your SL.......... ???

Apologies, for being vague. SL is at .7581
  • #96,217
  • Apr 4, 2016 6:09am Apr 4, 2016 6:09am
Good upside momentum.
  • #96,218
  • Apr 4, 2016 6:12pm Apr 4, 2016 6:12pm
Quoting 10cents
{quote} I have the midpoint at 7650. Does not look like it is bouncing off 7600 as a support, PA suggesting that it is alternating 50 pips both sides of 7650. Other 2 important levels are 7550 below and 7780 above. So in this order 7550, 7650 and 7780-800. We have to see if the numbers are relevant as the action unfolds.
We did get a 40 pip bounce off the 76c support 2nd time around, which being a lot less than the 1st bounce suggests price wants to go a bit lower at present. Question is, will trade balance and rba cash rate help or hinder that?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #96,219
  • Apr 4, 2016 6:34pm Apr 4, 2016 6:34pm
AIG service index falls below 50 to 49.5 meaning the economy is contracting .

The stars are lining up for a rate cut .. Will the RBA be brave enough to cut ?
  • #96,220
  • Apr 4, 2016 6:38pm Apr 4, 2016 6:38pm
.76 was an important support level March-July 2015, as well as currently. Long at .7607 triggered last night, and I'm watching now to take one more long this morning before Trade Balance released at 11:30. SL .751 to protect against a spike down if we have a rate drop
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