The Really Useless Thread | Page 6989 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,761
  • Apr 4, 2016 12:14pm Apr 4, 2016 12:14pm
bulls will get slaughtered first, when GU catches them blind handed @ 3960, then shorts annihilation in a cycle wave c ride out 4000 to 4550 +++
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 6 KB
  • #139,762
  • Apr 4, 2016 3:42pm Apr 4, 2016 3:42pm
Quoting IMARICH1
I am not sure how to do a Neutral Map other than Neutral MAP....BIAS to BUY and one has a BIAS to SELL. ..
Read this again ...
Quoting sisse
-> An outlook sell/buy just tell you that you will be better on the short/long side. The sooner you spot the change and the higher you sell/buy the less risk. Trade only the extreme of the side down/or up. Avoid fading the pullbacks/retraces.
Quote
-> An outlook neutral just tell you that both sides are equally risky. Fade the extremes. Avoid trading the breaks....

--> Your buy map is useless. The point of the exercise is going back to core TA and price action skills. It supposed to give you the map to the other side !!!! (it doesn't matter if you are trading it or if you are aiming to the other side!!!) ... If the outlook is buy in principle you trade from the inside to the outside (trade the centre & pullbacks and avoid fading the extremes)

--> A neutral map is very important to master as markets expend most of the time in neutral !!!. Newbies and struggling traders can only see buy or sell and they never see neutral....If the outlook is neutral in principle you trade from the outside to the inside (fade the extremes avoid the centre)

Look I will give you and some others that have asked some dynamic live charts to discuss basic TA and FA when I have the time to check some relevant cases for now lets do some very basic test:

++++ Quick Call ++++

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

For any of the lurkers around, I need one more trader to take IMARICH1 opposite side


--> Currently Euro is trading 1.139x for today's roll:

--> Question: What level will be tested first?

  1. 1.149x


or

  1. 1.129x

--> Choose your poison ASAP and any other lurkers that want to play/learn with this test feel free to jump in..no middle points no nothing.winner takes all.

In simple words for the sake of the example the option in trading terms are :

-> LMT BUY 1.139x -> TP => 1.149x | STP => 1.129x | r:r -=> 1:1


-> LMT SELL 1.139x -> TP => 1.129x | STP => 1.149x | r:r -=> 1:1


Let see how it goes as I think you will get a lot out of it after a few iterations ...let me know your answer ASAP before markets move too much from the current area...

GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,763
  • Apr 4, 2016 3:56pm Apr 4, 2016 3:56pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Read this again ... {quote} {quote} --> Your buy map is useless. The point of the exercise is going back to core TA and price action skills. It supposed to give you the map to the other side !!!! (it doesn't matter if you are trading it or if you are aiming to the other side!!!) ... If the outlook is buy in principle you trade from the inside to the outside (trade the centre & pullbacks and avoid fading the extremes) --> A neutral map is very important to master as markets expend most of the time in neutral !!!. Newbies and struggling traders...
I gotta catch up with the conversations..... and dont know whats opposite of imarich...... but I call for 1.149x first
  • #139,764
  • Apr 4, 2016 3:56pm Apr 4, 2016 3:56pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Read this again ... {quote} {quote} --> Your buy map is useless. The point of the exercise is going back to core TA and price action skills. It supposed to give you the map to the other side !!!! (it doesn't matter if you are trading it or if you are aiming to the other side!!!) ... If the outlook is buy in principle you trade from the inside to the outside (trade the centre & pullbacks and avoid fading the extremes) --> A neutral map is very important to master as markets expend most of the time in neutral !!!. Newbies and struggling traders...
I took 1.1290 first
  • #139,765
  • Apr 4, 2016 3:58pm Apr 4, 2016 3:58pm
brent oil is getting gutted hard out atm
  • #139,766
  • Edited 4:18pm Apr 4, 2016 3:59pm | Edited 4:18pm
--> Question: What level will be tested first?

 

  1. 1.149x


or

  1. 1.129x

​My answer is we have closed under the .14xx handle for London and NY close. .1430 has been the newest HH. We are near the top(outside) and the outlook is neutral. I would say in this approach we trade outside to inside (fade the extremes but avoid the center).

And......AVOID TRADING THE BREAKS!

I explained my answer FIRST Rockerzeus... LOL

I pick -> LMT SELL 1.139x -> TP => 1.129x | STP => 1.149x | r:r -=> 1:1

  • #139,767
  • Apr 4, 2016 4:22pm Apr 4, 2016 4:22pm
Quoting asgcorp
brent oil is getting gutted hard out atm
Macro stops taken in OIL after the close ... clean sweep !!! Longs cleaned out and we are back officially trading AIR. Expecting a major spike in volatility with China coming back to the table. For now only aiming again for $36.5x for the $44.6x leg in the spring ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,768
  • Apr 4, 2016 4:30pm Apr 4, 2016 4:30pm
Thanks for following up guys ... Ok now you are all here a quick final question before we let it roll ...

--> Question 2: Same level What level will be tested first?

--> Currently Euro is trading 1.139x for today's roll:

 

  1. 1.144x


or

  1. 1.134x


--> Choose your poison ASAP and any other lurkers that want to play/learn with this test feel free to jump in..no middle points no nothing.winner takes all.

In simple words for the sake of the example the option in trading terms are :

-> LMT BUY 1.139x -> TP => 1.144x | STP => 1.134x | r:r -=> 1:1


-> LMT SELL 1.139x -> TP => 1.134x | STP => 1.144x | r:r -=> 1:1


Let see how it goes as I think you will get a lot out of it after a few iterations ...

*I only reduced the range 50 ticks to adjust the volatility to see if that makes an impact in your decisions ....

Quoting IMARICH1
-> LMT SELL to 1.129x
Quoting Rockerzeus
-> LMT SELL to 1.129x
Quoting chester123
-> LMT BUY to 1.149x
IMARICH1 Rockerzeus chester123? please let me know your answer ASAP before markets move too much from the current area...if you keep the same answers ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,769
  • Apr 4, 2016 4:33pm Apr 4, 2016 4:33pm
Quoting sisse
Thanks for following up guys ... Ok now you are all here a quick final question before we let it roll ... --> Question 2: Same level What level will be tested first? --> Currently Euro is trading 1.139x for today's roll: 1.144x or 1.124x --> Choose your poison ASAP and any other lurkers that want to play/learn with this test feel free to jump in..no middle points no nothing.winner takes all. In simple words for the sake of the example the option in trading terms are : -> LMT BUY 1.139x -> TP => 1.144x | STP => 1.124x | r:r -=> 1:1 -> LMT SELL 1.139x...
Same direction 1.1240 first.
  • #139,770
  • Apr 4, 2016 4:35pm Apr 4, 2016 4:35pm
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Same direction 1.1240 first.
1.134x I meant ...got it ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,771
  • Apr 4, 2016 4:37pm Apr 4, 2016 4:37pm
1.134x >> 1.149x >> 1.129x
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #139,772
  • Apr 4, 2016 4:39pm Apr 4, 2016 4:39pm
My answer stays the same. If I am following the OUTLOOK and applying it correctly then I will NOT trade INSIDE to OUTSIDE; rather, OUTSIDE TO INSIDE.

I would prefer to trade .1440 as a SHORT (FADE); but, you are telling me I have to take a trade at .1390 so I would say there will be a pullback to .1340 FIRST then .1290

Looking at the 4hr CHART (please don't slap my hands but for this exercise it was needed to tweek it), the last swing from 113X to 1435 has a NORM pull back of 50% which would be .1290.

This is MY MAP and MY DESIGN!
  • #139,773
  • Apr 4, 2016 4:42pm Apr 4, 2016 4:42pm
looking at weekly calender , USD side says EURUSD higher going into FOMC ...Tomorrow light data EUR side with a better forecast US data so the dip could occur but not under breakout levels
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #139,774
  • Apr 4, 2016 4:44pm Apr 4, 2016 4:44pm
above 1.149x is steel resistance and air since china rally , not likely to break without trigger
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #139,775
  • Apr 4, 2016 4:50pm Apr 4, 2016 4:50pm
Already long from 1.1347 Sl 1.129 and looking for 1.149( or much higher) so I've already chosen my poison for better or worse.
  • #139,776
  • Apr 4, 2016 5:05pm Apr 4, 2016 5:05pm

++++ Quick Call ++++

Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.139x (elapsed time 0 days 0 hours)


Quoting chester123

-> LMT BUY to 1.149x

Quoting hoom

-> LMT BUY to 1.149x

Quoting goosebone

-> LMT BUY to 1.149x



---------------------------------------------


Quoting IMARICH1

-> LMT SELL to 1.129x

Quoting Rockerzeus

-> LMT SELL to 1.129x



Thanks guys .... Table closed .... Lets roll and we'll chat details after markets decide ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,777
  • Apr 4, 2016 5:11pm Apr 4, 2016 5:11pm
risk/reward wise I don't see this current setup to go long EUR USD as outstanding. In fact we've almost maxed out on 2 year range, and to break out of range Draghi will have to swap his bazooka for an Abrahms tank. Push some more into late-April - 15th May and rollercoaster ride back to where we started.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 48 KB
  • #139,778
  • Edited 6:00pm Apr 4, 2016 5:24pm | Edited 6:00pm
1.22 is pulling 1.247x is pulling. gatorinla, others seem to feel a push higher at least to test 1.17x is a likelihood. Whether or not my little trade from 1.1347 survives it is a different question. I do often doubt eurusd will break to the upside this time looking at dxy but for the most part I am bullish for now. Might see 1.05 first but might not. I am leaning towards a break higher because pa has reacted to levels I have on the path up to 1.22/247x. Could be wrong, wouldn't be the 100th time.
  • #139,779
  • Apr 4, 2016 7:13pm Apr 4, 2016 7:13pm
Quoting sisse
Question: What level will be tested first? 1.149x or 1.129x --> Choose your poison ASAP and any other lurkers that want to play/learn with this test feel free to jump in..no middle points no nothing.winner takes all. In simple words for the sake of the example the option in trading terms are : -> LMT BUY 1.139x -> TP => 1.149x | STP => 1.129x | r:r -=> 1:1 -> LMT SELL 1.139x -> TP => 1.129x | STP => 1.149x | r:r -=> 1:1 Let see how it goes as I think you will get a lot out of it after a few iterations ...let me know your answer ASAP before markets...
Been lurking for awhile now, currently price is still at 1.139.

That this must be a Neutral map, so the real answer is do nothing and be patient, unless you know this is an extreme to fade. I see zero signs that this is a buy extreme as it is near the recent highs, so buy here is a bad choice. I see a few signs that this is a sell extreme (which I like to use technicals for), such as near the top of the daily & weekly bollinger band and my favorite (but alas happens rarely) DOSC on the weekly is at overbought, which on my charts always means a good sell. The problem with sell is that there is no sign of other sellers out there on the daily. So, although I took a small sell based on my technicals (which is probably wrong) the answer is to wait.
defense wins championships
  • #139,780
  • Apr 5, 2016 1:54am Apr 5, 2016 1:54am
Quoting sisse
Thanks for following up guys ... Ok now you are all here a quick final question before we let it roll ... --> Question 2: Same level What level will be tested first? --> Currently Euro is trading 1.139x for today's roll: 1.144x or 1.134x --> Choose your poison ASAP and any other lurkers that want to play/learn with this test feel free to jump in..no middle points no nothing.winner takes all. In simple words for the sake of the example the option in trading terms are : -> LMT BUY 1.139x -> TP => 1.144x | STP => 1.134x | r:r -=> 1:1 -> LMT SELL 1.139x...
since we still have not moved.... I go for 1.144x!!
6 traders viewing now