The Really Useless Thread

you would do good if you just short sell EURUSD close to it's multi-year range top, as highlighted on the chart. We have confirmed tested resistance @ 15-16 area. There is only a limited chance that USD would be thrown out of it's 2 year range. USD is almost bottomed out in it's 2 year range. EUR USD can push higher, yes, but upside would be capped @ 1.1550-1.1600. If yous short sell around this area you can TP @ 1.1150 easily.

here's USDX 2 year range chart, we are almost at range bottom already. Expect some violent retaliation from USD bulls very soon.

Did the news was a game changer? did we overshoot, undershoot? did anything differently happened in correlated markets??? ....

We are just talking about a simple news flow no Weekly R or major nothing ... ...don't sweat it ...its just last break out point, as simple as that ...no weekly nothing ...

I hope it makes sense.

What do you think are odds that the current highs +/- 1.14xx handle will be the high of this year or at least of this Quarter?

... don't forget that we are in "choose your poison time" for the mid term swing ...so choose yours carefully. Hint: Outlook is? Neutral .... GL

Strongly agree with this part ...

sisse

Here is my answer to your first question. It is more difficult for me as my perspective has been SHORT so I am looking at this swing UP more as an Exhaustion point at .17XX and not the target. But, if I am looking at this from a Short term Bullish LEG UP; then, this is how I would MAP it. I feel foolish as I don't think this correct and struggled with it.

There is no right or wrong levels in TA. However, there are good and bad approaches and stronger and weaker price action levels.

Hints:

 

1. You need to learn how to recognise a basic reversal signal based on price. Check some of my back back posts from a few years back with charts (the Q/M and H4 charts outlook updates charts have plenty of examples...). This will not give you 100% perfection but will avoid you tones of basic mistakes.
2. You need to sharpen your basic price based TA. Make better use of R/S zones and levels ...you will be miles away from the rest, especially the laggers with indicators ....
3. Your momentum line is off. A momentum line is a point of no return that make price move fast and not come back. It can never be inside of the main range you are trading ...hint a point were bulls or bears will 'capitulate'

GL

sisse

"Did the news was a game changer? did we overshoot, undershoot? did anything differently happened in correlated markets??? ....

We are just talking about a simple news flow no Weekly R or major nothing ... ...don't sweat it ...its just last break out point, as simple as that ...no weekly nothing ..."----sisse

No there was no game changer news. We did NOT OVERSHOOT or UNDERSHOOT. It was INLINE and UNEMPLOYMENT INLINE at 5%--4.9%

I see it clearer on DAILY. Thanks!

well done!!! ... get ride of the toxic TA baggage, the sooner the better ... try getting back to basics, you will be surprise how simple are the actual technicalities for trading ...

50% is direction analysis, thats why we chat and chat and chat and talk markets 24h/7, 45% is patience, 5% is actual TA technicalities ....which is exactly the exact opposite % of what most struggling traders do around ....

sisse

sisse writes: Your momentum line is off. A momentum line is a point of no return that make price move fast and not come back. It can never be inside of the main range you are trading ...hint a point were bulls or bears will 'capitulate'.

IMARICH1 writes: If I was looking for the MID TERM LEG my momentum would be .0806 level; but, I was looking for MOMENTUM on this Bull LEG UP. It seemed there was momentum once we lost the .0978 area but I considered that the FLIP ZONE. I think losing the .138X/.14xx level could be a MOMENTUM line. Wrong?

sisse writes:
What do you think are odds that the current highs +/- 1.14xx handle will be the high of this year or at least of this Quarter?

... don't forget that we are in "choose your poison time" for the mid term swing ...so choose yours carefully. Hint: Outlook is? Neutral .... GL

I would say the ODDS are not favorable for the .14XX handle being the HIGH for the Q or Y as BULLS could capitulate to the .17XX handle or more. We have 12 more weeks of this 2nd Quarter remaining. Its possible it could be the HIGH but doubtful. We lost the .0978 level and NEW HIGHS now for YEAR and 1st Quarter. I am bias and would love to say we have made the HH and now will descend to test the LL; but, that's just crazy wishful thinking to my bias.

But, I will say this. If I was able to put any positions on now I would be actively looking now until May. If .17XX would be the max ext then putting in a position here would not be a bad move in my books as it would be about 300 pips away. And, we don;t know if .17XX will play out. It might but it might not and waiting for the best price is foolishness. Reducing Risk/Capital and getting in the Market is better than trying to wait. .14XX is a good level and .17XX is better but there is alot of R(.14XX) in this area unless Stops have been moved UP due to the air between .17 and .14.

sisse,

Go enjoy your evening as its getting very late there as you have been more than gracious with your time! I am leaving my 1st job and going to my 2nd one now. Tired. But, thanks so much for your help and patience in teaching or educating all of us and especially me here!

All the Best! And, I will go back and study those charts you posted a while back on reversals! Thanks!

It doesn't matter if levels are locked or unlocked or if we are going up or down ....you have the range confirmed since a long time. The momentum up is 1.149x.

....really? ...so your outlook is BUY notNeutral....

A couple of final points.

1. Because levels gets unlocked TA wise doesn't mean we are going to trade them ...
2. A 300 ticks stops and a few months drawdown is idiotic to say the least ...you may want to triple check you are doing something wrong.
3. So you have your own map for the leg up +/- clear according to your view ...could you just scope a map for a swing down right now?, what about a map for neutral? Point is ...I believe you might not be in synch with the market right now so mapping the 3 alternatives live would allow you quickly to have your AHAAA moment live and by your own charts .... you will owe me a beer later ...

I run out of wine so going to bed here ....have a good one ....

sisse

But it's the afternoon in Nauru isn't it? Oh wait middle of the night at the Vatican. Didn't realize you'd moved. Congrats. Send up a puff of white smoke when this move is exhausted. 😊

sisse,

I knew you had to be drinking something to weather the ignorance here on my end. I am grateful you partook in some WINE and definitely owe you a beer! Lol

Quoting IMARICH1
I would say the ODDS are not favorable for the .14XX handle being the HIGH for the Q or Y as BULLS could capitulate to the .17XX handle or more....

sisse: ....really? ...so your outlook is BUY not Neutral.

sisse, my outlook has been SELL EURO for the MID TERM LEG since February. I am just stuck in a bad seat at the moment for thinking that NFP move and DATA OVERSHOOT set up the MID TERM LEG and got trapped. MID and LONG term I have the right direction but missing opportunities at the moment to make money as I sit. Due to FIFO and US rules, I can sit it out or close out my position which would be unprofitable. Once we lost the .097X level my level my outlook was soft BUY. I had hoped we would not range so HIGH to .14XX which unlocks .17XX level.

If I could enter another SHORT to play back down to the .0930 and .0850 level in EU and another SHORT in GU (my position there is .4010); then, I could make some money or leverage out if needed. However, I don't have enough leverage to take on more positions and have it go against me even if I wanted to close it out on the new positions as it would take my first positions out first. As you an see, I had HOPED the .14XX would stop this move UP and at least range back to .05XX level.

We are at the TOP of the range from .14XX to .05XX. Momentum would be around .147X IMO. I think you indicated .149X. SO, we agree. Momentum on the .051X level would send us to parity or .02XX. Suspect each area could be 300 pips. I guess you think a 300 pip stop is ridiculous. I concur unless you have LOW Leverage and want to get in at this level. We are at the Top of the range and if it decides to go lower, it could quickly. For me, it could go to .1750 and I would talk myself into thinking it could go to 1.22. So, at this level .14XX I am talking myself of entering.

But, if was not in the market at this moment, I would enter at the .14XX levels and have a stop at .150X level and see what developed. However, if I do this now, it would sell my .093X and .085X positions.

When you ask me what are the odds that .14XX might be the Quarterly High for the Month, I base the probability that my TIMING has been horrible and waiting for the Monthly or Weekly close is better to make that determination. Since we made a Higher High for the 1st Quarterly; its possible the EU could go higher still since US data has been good and inline while the EU continues to move higher against the DOLLAR. Doesn't make sense to me. But, expectations are based on USD not having more rate increases until FALL now. And, that is weighing more heavily.

However, you claim the RISK for this month is on data. US data has been good EU gets stronger so I will see if this continues for this month as well.

I will be working on charts soon. I work 3 jobs due to a Court system crippling me financially for fraudulent info the court system accepted from my ex and refuses to fix it. I work about 70 hours or more a week. I am writing a book on my story as its just not believable when I share it. Judicial officials in my court system don't believe it but know I am telling the real story. I exhausted most of my finances to get a HIGHER COURT to give me relief and that was wasted money and foolishness. Ironically, I work for the Courts to protect others; yet, I can't protect myself. Working on Taxes now and will hopefully get some time later.

I think it would be well worth my time to buy your beer or wine to capitalize on some of your time!

Thanks for your help!!! I am learning along the way. I am better than when I started even though my seats suck at the moment. It has allowed me to ask questions and be more transparent in the process.

I just wish I had a crystal ball that would show me this current level in EU and GU would hold for a deeper move to test the .05XX level in EU and .383X level in GU.

You said to trade the EXPECTATIONS as opposed to the FACTS. Is there a better way you go about learning EXPECTATIONS? My EXPECTATIONS were for NFP in Feb with The OVERSHOOT to at least break through the .088 handle and it did the exact opposite there. I think this is an area I need to learn as well.

Take care and will post a chart later hopefully! I would love to have an AHH HAA moment; rather than, the re-occurring OH $%*&!!! moments I have been having!

Oil....harshin the riskasset bull party, s'ok, chop gives me time/space to watch theta grind on my index credit spreads.....

Would Brexit=Grexit? And in turn = beginning of the end of Ezone?

$36.6x is the rain maker for this week and beyond ....

Choose your poison time in OIL...I already chose mine ...

GL

sisse

hello everyone.... hope you all well...... im back from my vacation..... gotta catch up with the markets and finish my master thesis so I can start spamming here again

in any case:

sisse, in oil.... seems that the consensus on production cuts falls apart....

1. what are your short term swing down targets?
2. do you expect oil to limit the recent spring extension in equities, i.e. SP500 respectivelly?

[quote=IMARICH1;8850759]sisse, I knew you had to be drinking something to weather the ignorance here on my end...

Good Luck IAMRICH1!!!
Your questions & and the answers of Sisse help alot this thread...very interesting and helpful. GL to all

Welcome back chester123!

sisse,

Here are my MAPS (I did the work on WEEKLY but had to post a D chart to get it to fit). I am not sure how to do a Neutral Map other than Neutral MAP is waiting until price gets to a level to decide to BUY or SELL; and, that has to be done knowing MARKET EXPECTATIONS which at this point in time has been rather difficult for me. I almost inclined to believe I should expect the exact opposite of what I should expect.

Regarding the AHH HAA moment, I didn't have it unless it is that BOTH MAPS are identical expect one has a BIAS to BUY and one has a BIAS to SELL. PA crossing/closing over a level gives you a direction of which MAP to follow. I am sure this is not the AHH HAA moment you were hoping for and prob MAPS are wrong. Thanks

And, a MONTHLY GU Map for those following or wanting to see how far off I am on this one as well:

GU shorts will get crushed soon. April best month seasonaly for GU. Also do your homework and you shall find inverted H&S on daily GU in the making.