The Really Useless Thread | Page 6987 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,721
  • Edited 11:09pm Mar 31, 2016 10:52pm | Edited 11:09pm
Barclays monthly candles, eight straight red, shares have halved - a failed Brexit should brighten things up for BCS (and the other big City banks) ---- I could get in a Jun/Sep $9 calls calendar for about $25/contract, the Jun calls expire <$9 just days before the referendum, I am left with Sep $9 long calls, the Brexit fails, BCS rallies $5 to $10 by September, and my $25 contracts go to $500-$1000. If right, a $1,000 stake on this trade turns to $20,000-$40,000. If BCS is trading a little shy of $9 near Jun expiry (just b4 the binary event), I could cash in some of the calendar spreads to cover the cost of the trade plus some profit and let the balance run to September.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-31_2032bcs.png Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-31_2106bcs2.png Size: 72 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,722
  • Apr 1, 2016 7:18am Apr 1, 2016 7:18am
Here we go for the start of the spring with the first NFP of the season.

--> On the fundamental side

Expecting inline/better than expected numbers. Markets are in manic mode with risk off the table, China printing better than expected numbers and FED in dovish mode speech completely aligning markets for 2 hikes this year instead of 4.

A flop will just trigger profit taking and wont have any major FA implications. A major overshoot (via rates) will start marking the end of the rally once the knee jerk reaction pass.

--> On the technical side

A no brainer written all over the place. Continuation mid and short term in play to complete the legs in Equities and commodities (OIL). Eyes on 2080.xx in S&P for a chance 210x, 1.151x in Euro x a chance to test last summer highs, and 38.5x for 44.6x in OIL among the majors.

A flop will allow a deeper pullback for the Weekly roll to have a slow and steady ride up for the rest of the month. 2046/8.xx is the level to track in US equities as the rain maker across the board while DOLLAR (DXY) lossing the current feeble lows unlock the extension to test last summer lows before entering in 'choose your poison time' for the rest of the year.

--> For the Actual flows (euro only)

If you are not already in from below, only extremely expensive tickets available. 1.141x -> 1.151x naked for a quick test. Lots of air above the high of the 1.14xx handle and clean sweep in play with a strong NFP hand to unlock the map to the test of 1.17xx summer highs as early as today W close. A uneventful NFP just unlock untradable (in my books) soft profit taking with 1.134x as only and key level in play.

GL all trading or planning to trade ...

Quoting IMARICH1
You may think Ill crack it sooner than later...but, this is one MAP I think will be later than sooner for me .....I am on the wrong side again of GU and EU....
I'll give you a hand in the next few posts...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,723
  • Apr 1, 2016 7:35am Apr 1, 2016 7:35am
Slightly better on the headline, marginal up tick on unemployment, the rest a pretty much inline with expectations ...

Nothing to see here ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,724
  • Apr 1, 2016 7:56am Apr 1, 2016 7:56am
sisse,

Thanks sisse. I believe I will be in hibernate mode here in the trenches for some time. Bad positioning from last NFP. Wait and see for me on the fact my TIMING was horrible on the MID TERM LEG.

I will try to absorb some of your nuggets of wisdom while painfully waiting for the MID TERM LEG to come someday. I realize the MID TERM LEG may take MONTHS and this has been a good lesson for me. I was so concerned about missing the Cheap seats for this MID TERM LEG to develop and realized lots can happen in the midst of it starting.

Watching the WEEKLY and QUARTERLY rolls are so important in positioning along with waiting on NEWS flows and actual flow while watching what KEY RISK are playing at the time.

I was so concerned I had missed it once before and now in GU and EU I am in but at horrible prices for these seats that have horrible views.
  • #139,725
  • Apr 1, 2016 8:53am Apr 1, 2016 8:53am
Quoting IMARICH1
... I will be in hibernate mode here in the trenches for some time. Bad positioning from last NFP. ....
We are setting up for a rather dull close of the week so its a good afternoon session to post some trading stuff here.

Lets start from the core and move up from there:

1. An outlook it just show you the path of least resistance.

-> An outlook sell/buy just tell you that you will be better on the short/long side. The sooner you spot the change and the higher you sell/buy the less risk. Trade only the extreme of the side down/or up. Avoid fading the pullbacks/retraces.
-> An outlook neutral just tell you that both sides are equally risky. Fade the extremes. Avoid trading the breaks.

I made a quick chart. Study it, memorise it, make it yours in your own words and TA experience ...we'll move from there later...

sisse
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Outlook sell.png Size: 191 KB
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,726
  • Apr 1, 2016 8:56am Apr 1, 2016 8:56am
Quoting sisse
{quote} We are setting up for a rather dull close of the week so its a good afternoon session to post some trading stuff here. Lets start from the core and move up from there: 1. An outlook it just show you the path of least resistance. -> An outlook sell/buy just tell you that you will be better on the short/long side. The sooner you spot the change and the higher you sell/buy the less risk. Trade only the extreme of the side down/or up. Avoid fading the pullbacks/retraces. -> An outlook neutral just tell you that both sides are equally risky....
beautiful work sisse

adding that to my book of cool trading stuff
  • #139,727
  • Apr 1, 2016 9:11am Apr 1, 2016 9:11am
Quoting sisse
...A uneventful NFP just unlock untradable (in my books) soft profit taking with 1.134x [check]as only and key level in play.
...and thats pretty much it ...1.134x tested. Europe going home will kill the day...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,728
  • Apr 1, 2016 10:23am Apr 1, 2016 10:23am
Quoting sisse
{quote} We are setting up for a rather dull close of the week so its a good afternoon session to post some trading stuff here. Lets start from the core and move up from there: 1. An outlook it just show you the path of least resistance. -> An outlook sell/buy just tell you that you will be better on the short/long side. The sooner you spot the change and the higher you sell/buy the less risk. Trade only the extreme of the side down/or up. Avoid fading the pullbacks/retraces. -> An outlook neutral just tell you that both sides are equally risky....
extremely useful , thanks
  • #139,729
  • Apr 1, 2016 10:26am Apr 1, 2016 10:26am
Thanks for the MAP sisse!

I hope this MAP is more for an example purposes because if that LIMIT area is possible; man, I am in BIG trouble! I am also seeing some respected traders see GU going to 1.50 first as well. Never saw this kind of move coming since our discussions since Jan. .14XX looked pretty much of a top and with last months WICK candle more convinced MID TERM had started. WRONG! Sigh............and GU Top around .45XX.

I was looking for EU to chop around in the .1300 to .1500 handles and then make its descent to chop around .1300 to .1115 then take its final BOW for Momentum play thru the infamous .097X and .0800 for a test of the .04XX level which I don't see holding.

I was looking at GU to test .3835 and go to .3650 and look for a bounce there. However, I am positioned at .4000 and can't get a break here. No pun intended.

But, I can see how the OUTLOOK helps you see the FOREST from the TREES. The moves from .1280 to .1800 can appear as LEGS to the topside and jump ship but it is more chop zones and the extremes are the better places to enter. Makes sense!
Thanks for the help and info!
  • #139,730
  • Apr 1, 2016 10:38am Apr 1, 2016 10:38am
No surprises for the European close ... markets on the brink to close the week on the top of next hour ....

Quoting IMARICH1
...! I hope this MAP is more for an example purposes because if that LIMIT area is possible; man....!
Lets keep going down step by step ...

....yes sure nice chart in a theory example so what about a real trade?...

Well, let's see the same case with a real example in a proper swing we called and traded live here with the FED/ECB combo last year. What I am trying to do is make you get in synch with the market but not because I say so after the fact but because something click (hopefully) in your own analysis.

Again just digest it, analyse it, make it yours in your own terms. Remember we trade expectations in a change of outlook ...smart money and traders will be ahead of the rest....

For the sake of the explanation I smoothed it to make the swing very obvious ...We'll chat later...

sisse

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Outlook sellSwing.png Size: 231 KB
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,731
  • Apr 1, 2016 11:49am Apr 1, 2016 11:49am
Quoting IMARICH1
.... I can see how the OUTLOOK helps you see the FOREST from the TREES. ...
Quoting sisse
For the sake of the explanation I smoothed it to make the swing very obvious ,..
...nice but smoothing feels a bit 'on the chart fitting side' and after the fact so what's the point?

This is what I have been telling you for a while about timing and perspective. Lets move one step down....

Perspective is very important for analysis. Main issue is that human brain is not naturally wired to understand TIME in a static 2 dimensional chart. Its hard, especially for hyperactive traders that areused to only scalp in micro TFs to grasp how long in trading time is a candle (any TF) and how much information is inside of it.

Thats why is so common to get 'lost in translation', unable to see the forest for the trees ...

Same real example chart , this time without the smoothing but in a PROPER timeframe chart reference so you understand why being anal about using the proper perspective and AVOID at all cost trying to catch a big fish with a small boat or vice versa its so important...

Point here is trying to make you see the concept of perspective and time required so you can get in synch with the market and not lost in the middle cause of the noise. Can you see how the same swing is only a handful of almost clean candles in a proper chart?

Think about this in extreme detail, believe me if you want the closer thing to the HOLY GRAIL in TA ...is here in understanding EXPECTATIONS in a proper TIME and PERSPECTIVE chart (it applies to any TF and any market!!!). The moment you wire your brain to this ...your results will improve DRAMATICALLY....

sisse

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Perspective.png Size: 129 KB
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,732
  • Edited 12:47pm Apr 1, 2016 12:27pm | Edited 12:47pm
Quoting The Fool
get the stars to align on the oil, China, and NFP data points & we can see spoos back above 2,100 THIS WEEK! ^VIX to new atl's IN APRIL!
Well, not quite, but I am still bangin the same drum. .....really just need oil to come along now.....
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,733
  • Edited 1:07pm Apr 1, 2016 12:56pm | Edited 1:07pm
Quoting sisse
...nice but smoothing feels a bit 'on the chart fitting side' and after the fact so what's the point?..
Before you start asking ok got the point what about talking about the CURRENT swing instead and cut the 'crap' ...?

...Just a final point about these issues that I think is a rough exaggeration of what is going on with your trades but it will wrap up this part of the conversation before we can discuss the current market moves....

--> The better and sharper you get trading swings and expectations the larger % of the total range of the swing you will get. NOBODY will get tick top to tick bottom. If you manage to start grabbing 50% of 60% of the potential range you should be very very happy. You don't need more !!!!.

--> Don't forget that you (at least I and I think most without much effort) have nearly +12500 instruments to trade in a mouse click !!!!!! and thats without counting infinite combination of possibilities if you trade Options like TheFool here.

--> What it means you have the LUXURY to pass as many swings as you want if you don't feel you are in synch or if you miss the train or whatever ....so be patience and use common sense. Smart traders know when to step back and stay sidelined, gamblers and newbies think that they need to 'call' a trade every micro wave in and out ...

--> If you start thinking in grabbing a % of a potential range you understand that there is more than one way to skin a cat. Here is also where I think you are failing miserably. You are getting stuck in the areas that define the direction of the swing instead of actual trades and on top you were (at least before) both either too close to the market for trading sometimes or too far from the flow in others...

Check these 2 charts. I exaggerated the zooming for the sake of the explanation but you get the point.

If you are trading a short / mid term swing adjust and manage your trades to a good TF for the flows. For example if you are entering on a expensive ticket you are not going to go all in and sit and wait until the limit is hit, or if the opposite you are entering in a super cheap ticket don't just flop on the first mini micro move against your trade ...

...what happens when you get too close to the market even if you are clear in the swing direction ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: smallfish.png Size: 332 KB


...and after 21 micro swings ...this is in reality what this trader was actually trading ...

Attached Image


Pathetic, isn't it ? ...don't make the same mistake

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,734
  • Apr 1, 2016 2:31pm Apr 1, 2016 2:31pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ... ...what happens when you get too close to the market even if you are clear in the swing direction ... {image} ...and after 21 micro swings ...this is in reality what this trader was actually trading ... {image} Pathetic, isn't it ? ...don't make the same mistake sisse
OK that might be the best post I've ever seen on this website.
  • #139,735
  • Apr 1, 2016 2:59pm Apr 1, 2016 2:59pm
Quoting sisse
Eyes on 2080.xx [ckeck a handful of point before] in S&P for a chance 210x, ...A flop will allow a deeper pullback for the Weekly roll to have a slow and steady ride up for the rest of the month. 2046/8.xx [check] is the level to track in US equities as the rain maker across i
...and I will take before the close...double clearing 2080.xx target (swing and news play) a few points below as risk doesn't justify any longer to hold over the weekend...

Nearly flawless trade ...well done all (@Fool !!!) riding the pig in Equities from below.

Quoting The Fool
{quote} Well, not quite, but I am still bangin the same drum. .....really just need oil to come along now.....
I happily took that in Equities ...'meat' and easy part of the move from the double whammy (ECB/FED) is gone now. We are going to get at least one real attack to the highs during the spring (211x.) but things will get a lot choppier at these levels as we enter in major decision area for the summer/ rest of year.

On OIL, agree very timid move but this is not done yet in my books...I will be actively looking to reload from next week onwards to ride 44.6x ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,736
  • Apr 1, 2016 3:02pm Apr 1, 2016 3:02pm
sisse,

I don't even know where to begin. I feel compelled to say thank you so many times but words cant express the amount of appreciation and time given here to try and assist me. I definitely know I don't deserve it and know you probably won't get much out of this investment if it is merely helping another trader. I don't believe I can do you justice on what you have given here. All I can do is try. I have read and re-read all of this twice and some light bulbs have come on; and, some have not. But, these posts will help some traders who really get it and will learn from them!

The biggest bulb that went on along with sirens is I am that pathetic trader in the midst of trying to trade or position within that somewhat of a doji candle. The last post turned on the bulb of reality of how I trade.

Before I can step foot in the forest and be amongst the trees, I have to at least MAP out the aerial view of the forest so I know what I am looking at. So, when I go inside the forest and am looking at all the tress, I know where I am at. I will know the cliffs, valleys and ravines are hidden when all I see is foliage and trees.

Out of respect to what you have posted, I want to refrain from saying much else until I really digest all the info. I do have questions and especially with this swing that went from short term LEG UP to more of longer term short term LEG UP (not sure what to call that-capitulation???). I don't understand it as I still see the USD stronger than EU or GU. Fundamentals with data in US strong and good and should affect % rate increase; but, so far it does not. Makes one think if GATOR is more likely to be right with just the TECH side.

I believe in FA and TA. But, TA in my books has more than trumped the FA IMO but I have already expressed all that am obviously off track. But, the MID TERM LEG is still in the making in my books and plenty of seats to be filled while I picked mine way in the back and first for a HIGHER price. STUPID! But, hope to learn from it.

Have a great weekend and thanks again sisse. I hope to be a good trader one day or one that increases the success of his trades!
  • #139,737
  • Apr 1, 2016 3:07pm Apr 1, 2016 3:07pm
Quoting sisse
We are going to get at least one real attack to the highs during the spring (211x.) but things will get a lot choppier at these levels as we enter in major decision area for the summer/ rest of year. On OIL, agree very timid move but this is not done yet in my books...I will be actively looking to reload from next week onwards to ride 44.6x ... sisse
Green lights down the line in April, I guess - to opex at least maybe all the way out to FOMC in week 5, but that be the end of the line for me so far as bullish trades go....I still think "sell in May go away" will be the place to be, been positioning for that since February....great posts this week, sisse, everyone adores you - have a great weekend, all
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,738
  • Apr 1, 2016 3:14pm Apr 1, 2016 3:14pm
ta and fundamentals. give me a break. that's how markets work. more details here.
Exposed - How Two Janet Yellen Phone Calls Saved The World
Attached Images
  • #139,739
  • Apr 1, 2016 3:20pm Apr 1, 2016 3:20pm
Quoting IMARICH1
....EU or GU. Fundamentals with data in US strong and good and should affect % rate increase; but, so far it does not. Makes one think if GATOR is more likely to be right with just the TECH side. I believe in FA and TA. But, TA in my books has more than trumped the FA IMO but I have already expressed all that am obviously off track. !
A good and sound TA trader will always be a solid example to learn from. The issue is not about TA or FA but about achieving consistency.

--> When swinging FA will give you the heads up miles in advance of TA, it will tell you when to look and when not to, it will tell you where will be the path of least resistance, it will give you the route with sign post of where you should stop, think, follow, turn or track back ....However if you don't know how to drive (TA), no map, route, signals, etc will serve of much.

--> Don't forget TA has one important problem .... it easily highlight when we are right but it tends to hide and blur when we are wrong. Point being is not about how many winners you can shoot with TA alone but how consistent you are after a long series of trades and thats when FA will make a huge difference.

Whatever the case, I believe sharpening your (TA) driving skills (for swinging I mean) before you can fully comprehend the real value FA is a good idea. Let me give you the last 2 questions for this week for you to think over the weekend (no need to reply in the thread):

 

  1. Can you map the current swing from the Q1 2016 using just TA (forget about FA ...we can chat later) meaning Exhaustion, Cheap tickets area, flip, Expensive tickets area, momentum and target?
  2. How do you think I 'knew' (TA wise) the NFP flow down and that 1.134x was going to hold ?


You may found something useful there ....

Thanks for the kind words, and have a good one ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,740
  • Edited 3:59pm Apr 1, 2016 3:48pm | Edited 3:59pm
Question number 2: My answer is last Resistance on WEEKLY chart became support for the NFP and looking LEFT I see this was an area of struggle for R&S.

How far off am I?

Ill work on Question 1 soon!
Attached Image
18 traders viewing now