if the timing is exactly right i take this trade.
- #162
- Edited 7:29am Mar 31, 2016 6:55am | Edited 7:29am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
I will add a new rule to my strategy.
I sometimes have a lot of draw-down and 30 pips stop-losses are triggered.
This is why from now on i don't pick tops and bottoms anymore.
I wait till the fact happened and trade the 1 minute time-frame break/retest and max 10 pips stop-loss.
If it did not happen right at least i did not get stopped out for 30 pips.
Also i was short before at the green and red line. This was a long wait without profit and finally i got stopped out. I wanted to close it at break even but it did not happen. So by doing this i also remove a lot of stress.
Example: i am bearish EU short term.
I won't sell now because price might keep going up.
so i would sell at the arrow with only 10 pips stoploss...
1 minute chart...
I sometimes have a lot of draw-down and 30 pips stop-losses are triggered.
This is why from now on i don't pick tops and bottoms anymore.
I wait till the fact happened and trade the 1 minute time-frame break/retest and max 10 pips stop-loss.
If it did not happen right at least i did not get stopped out for 30 pips.
Also i was short before at the green and red line. This was a long wait without profit and finally i got stopped out. I wanted to close it at break even but it did not happen. So by doing this i also remove a lot of stress.
Example: i am bearish EU short term.
I won't sell now because price might keep going up.
so i would sell at the arrow with only 10 pips stoploss...
1 minute chart...
- #163
- Mar 31, 2016 7:07am Mar 31, 2016 7:07am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 8,618 Posts
Gone to a better place
- #164
- Mar 31, 2016 7:19am Mar 31, 2016 7:19am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
I will add a new rule to my strategy. I sometimes have a lot of draw-down and 30 pips stop-losses are triggered. This is why from now on i don't pick tops and bottoms anymore. I wait till the fact happened and trade the 1 minute time-frame break/retest and max 10 pips stop-loss. If it did not happen right at least i did not get stopped out for 30 pips. Also i was short before at the green and red line. This was a long wait without profit and finally i got stopped out. I wanted to close it at break even but it did not happen. So by doing this i also...
Take a look at Usd/Cad monthly chart from 2000 to today.
the weekly is also nice.
2015 to now.
- #165
- Mar 31, 2016 7:41am Mar 31, 2016 7:41am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
{quote} I keep moving my entry but i don't lose any money. {image}
parallels also work on the 1m timeframe.
- #166
- Mar 31, 2016 8:19am Mar 31, 2016 8:19am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
{quote} price went higher and i did not lose anything. parallels also work on the 1m timeframe. {image}
it looks more bearish now. confirmation of the R&S is the neckline.
I don't sell the top of the right shoulder, there is no confirmation yet.
Although a small stoploss would be needed..
This whole H&S structure is 10 pips high.
So no stop-loss of 30 pips is needed.
If i traded the top of the right shoulder i would just risk 5 pips.
- #167
- Mar 31, 2016 8:37am Mar 31, 2016 8:37am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
{quote} It broke my channel but not for long enough for a valid retest. it looks more bearish now. confirmation of the R&S is the neckline. I don't sell the top of the right shoulder, there is no confirmation yet. Although a small stoploss would be needed.. This whole H&S structure is 10 pips high. So no stop-loss of 30 pips is needed. If i traded the top of the right shoulder i would just risk 5 pips. {image}
I wait till the whole thing is played out and short the neckline retest only.
could also be a descending triangle, again only a retest of the whole structure..
- #168
- Mar 31, 2016 8:52am Mar 31, 2016 8:52am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
{quote} It might be a complex H&S. I wait till the whole thing is played out and short the neckline retest only. could also be a descending triangle, again only a retest of the whole structure.. {image}
now start all over again.
- #169
- Mar 31, 2016 8:57am Mar 31, 2016 8:57am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
{quote} price went higher but i did not lose any money... now start all over again. {image}
this 1m chart is a new feature of my strategy, i am learning it as i go.
- #170
- Mar 31, 2016 9:03am Mar 31, 2016 9:03am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
eu weekly price action.
testing this level might go with a reaction.
now i zoom in again to see what happens.
on the 15 minute chart we see yellow support line.
perhaps we can buy here later.
testing this level might go with a reaction.
now i zoom in again to see what happens.
on the 15 minute chart we see yellow support line.
perhaps we can buy here later.
- #171
- Mar 31, 2016 9:18am Mar 31, 2016 9:18am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
still flat, but no money lost.
i try to short the yellow TL after break/retest.
it violated my yellow price action line which is bearish already.
a close below is more bearish.
but anything can happen
i try to short the yellow TL after break/retest.
it violated my yellow price action line which is bearish already.
a close below is more bearish.
but anything can happen
- #172
- Mar 31, 2016 9:26am Mar 31, 2016 9:26am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
on 4h chart.
this channel has not yet been tested. todays pivot point and weekly R2 is there so i am looking for a short term short towards there and then i turn my trade.
everything all over again...
next time i sell the right shoulder..
i keep getting that one right.
this channel has not yet been tested. todays pivot point and weekly R2 is there so i am looking for a short term short towards there and then i turn my trade.
everything all over again...
next time i sell the right shoulder..
i keep getting that one right.
- #173
- Edited 11:53am Mar 31, 2016 11:27am | Edited 11:53am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
here we go.
I finally found confluence.
5 pips risk and 60 pips target.
I moved sl to be so there is no more risk.
If i get stopped out i find another.
I really like this method... there is barely any stress because the event is over within minutes.
And we are talking 5 pips risk... and now no risk.
edit: i got stopped out at be. lost nothing so its ok.
I finally found confluence.
5 pips risk and 60 pips target.
I moved sl to be so there is no more risk.
If i get stopped out i find another.
I really like this method... there is barely any stress because the event is over within minutes.
And we are talking 5 pips risk... and now no risk.
edit: i got stopped out at be. lost nothing so its ok.
- #175
- Mar 31, 2016 12:05pm Mar 31, 2016 12:05pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
gbpaud. ugly H&S may still work. {image}
- #176
- Mar 31, 2016 12:17pm Mar 31, 2016 12:17pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
EUR/CHF perhaps later today. target is not even on the chart. {image}
- #177
- Mar 31, 2016 12:35pm Mar 31, 2016 12:35pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
Take a look at Usd/Cad monthly chart from 2000 to today.
about 35 pips away.
In the weekend i have to choose what to focus on.
These are the options:
- eurusd, first thend retest, then higher high which i posted before, then large move down.
- usdjpy, if good retrace then find entry for 800 pips down move.
- usdcad, look to buy.
- eugbp, perhaps buy from apex, otherwise sell from 32.8 fib at 0.8028 ish.
- eurchf, it got rejected, perhaps we can find another short position.
- audnzd, retest neckline.
- nzdusd, perhaps 23 fib works after all.
I want to short usdjpy most but entry is uncertain.
- #178
- Mar 31, 2016 12:38pm Mar 31, 2016 12:38pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
about usdjpy. this would be completely insane but possible..
2 bats in a row...
2 bats in a row...
- #179
- Apr 1, 2016 2:45am Apr 1, 2016 2:45am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
UJ... the technical target for breaking a channel is the width of the channel. there should be profit taking there. i go take a nap... {image}
If this level breaks i look for a short.
- #180
- Apr 1, 2016 2:48am Apr 1, 2016 2:48am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
aud nzd 4h
coming in for a proper retest.
coming in for a proper retest.