AUD/USD

Stops @ 0.7646

Higher-low forming

1HR momentum slowed and OS

I understand why you guys don't want to buy at these levels, it's risky (that's why i'm scalping it) but consider this;

We have already had a pullback in NY session off yesterdays high
The pullback was about 65 pips.
With an ADR(4) of only 83 pips, i'm considering this a reasonable retracement
That's almost and entire days trading - the profit taking has already been done IMO

so this is a better graph might be a bit confusing with 4 fibs on the daily view, but i would expect it to go back 168 or 50 of 0.757 or 0.7588 before it can get a new level of 0.7795 or around and develope a new support of around 0.768 pushing then to 0.78558 with another rebound not too sure exactly but most likely it will be rebounding around same low as last, just a bit higher I would be concerned if it started rebounding at a lowerer low. I would expect another level after that at 0.79880 or around and i am not game to predict any further.

also to note fundamentals for those who say Aussie is in the drain i would dispute that. Aussie is connected to commodities and my research found that america was wanting a lower oil price to pressure Russian economy and get their american dollars back off the Russians as they sold to keep their economy afloat. Once that was finished and OPEC limited supply I found out that they had been over estimating oil by 800 k barrels a day and that same agency was american so I believe Australia to be in a good position for now as commodities were much too low and now that china made a plan to build a massive railway iron ore has picked up which some say is very closely matched to our currency. Working out currency values off economic performance as a whole rather then the likely correlations of commodities probably only works on a super long term scale like 5 10 years.

here is a the article Crude mystery: where did 800,000 barrels of oil go?
GEORGI KANTCHEV
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
MARCH 18, 2016 12:29PM
The tally of unaccounted-for oil hit highest level in 17 years in 2015; in this file picture a worker walks on top of barrels in Jakarta.

There is mystery at the heart of the oversupplied global oil market: missing barrels of crude.
Last year, there were 800,000 barrels of oil a day unaccounted for by the International Energy Agency, the energy monitor that puts together data on crude supply and demand. Where these barrels ended up, or if they even existed, is key to an oil market that remains under pressure from the glut in crude.
Some analysts say the barrels may be in China. Others believe the barrels were created by flawed accounting and they dont actually exist. If they dont exist, then the oversupply that has driven crude prices to decade lows could be much smaller than estimated and prices could rebound faster.
Whatever the answer, the discrepancy underscores how oil prices flip around based on data that investors are often unsure of.
Barrels have gone missing before, but last year the tally of unaccounted-for oil grew to its highest levelin 17 years. At a time when the issue of oversupply dominates the oil industry, this matters.
If the market is tighter than assumed due to the missing barrels, prices could spike quicker, said David Pursell, managing director at energy-focused investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
Heres how a barrel of crude goes missing in the data. Last year, the IEA estimated that on average the world produced around 1.9 million barrels a day more crude than there was demand for. Of that crude, 770,000 barrels went into onshore storage while roughly 300,000 barrels were in transit on the seas or through pipelines. That left roughly 800,000 barrels a day unaccounted for in the data. Global oil supply is about 96 million barrels a day.
In the fourth quarter, the number of missing barrels reached as high as 1.1 million barrels a day, or 43% of the estimated oversupply during that period.
The IEA collates production and demand data from around the world, and its monthly reports often move prices. Other major market monitors, like the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, dont break down their data to show the number of missing barrels.
In 1998, the last time the number of missing barrels was so high, concern over the discrepancy reached the US Congress. A U.S. senator asked the Government Accountability Office, a nonpartisan agency working for Congress, to examine the IEA data. The agency found that [statistical] limitations can introduce errors into the data, although the magnitude and direction of these errors are not clear.
That is what most analysts think.
The most likely explanation for the majority of the missing barrels is simply that they do not exist, said Paul Horsnell, an oil analyst at Standard Chartered.
Standard Chartered projects US crude averaging $63 a barrel in the fourth quarter, an above-consensus forecast that has been shaped partly by the banks belief that the glut is smaller than it seems. The average forecast among 13 investment banks surveyed by The Wall Street Journal last month was oil at $45 a barrel by the end of the year.
West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, rose $1.74 a barrel, or 4.5%, to $40.20 on Thursday, giving it a two-day gain of 11%. Brent, the international gauge, rose $1.21 a barrel, or 3%, to $41.54.
A spokesman for the IEA referred to the agencys website, which says that the barrels miscellaneous to balance could be explained by overstated supply, understated demand or stockpile changes in countries outside the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
While the IEA estimates supply and demand from global data, its numbers on where the oversupply is being stockpiled come only from members of the OECD. That means that some of those barrels might be found in non-OECD countries like China.
Some analysts disagree. The missing barrels have become such a large proportion of the oversupply that this would imply that stockpiles are building up in non-OECD countries at a much faster pace than those in the organisation, something that they question.
Analysts also point out that collecting data on oil is hard.
Demand data is derived from models rather than from real measured consumption and is often substantially revised, investment bank DNB Markets said in a research note. More than half of global oil demand also now comes from non-OECD nations where statistical gathering isnt as well developed, the bank said.
We hence suspect that demand in non-OECD in reality is meaningfully larger than what is reported by the IEA, they said.
Given this, some investors look at trends in oil data rather than the precise numbers they throw up.
Oil data is an imperfect science, said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees $125 billion in assets.
Still, Mr. Haworth said that whether these barrels are missing or not, the global glut of crude is still far from over.
The market could be a little tighter, but the barrels we do know about its still a lot of them, he said.
Wall Street Journal

Low risk, high reward so worth the shot but I wouldn't be banking on 5 min support when you look at current 4H chart. Good luck!

Thanks man, got caught in a stop-run below the last low...
Should have seen that coming - what a newb haha

Illuminati confirmed

They are everywhere - even on the 1minute?!!?

We're shorting now right??? @ 0.7640

The Aussie keeps surprising on the upside. But this run doesn't look strong. Will it end up with a lower high this time? Then shorts will be on. I scalped a few pips earlier

from .7643 to .7657 but didn't have faith for it to go higher.

"CBA sees the Australian dollar at 80 cents by mid 2016"

Thoughts?

"ANZ Banking Group is more bearish on the Aussie, tipping it to ease to US74¢ by June and end the year near where it started at US67¢."

AFR.com

My sentiments exactly

Short at 77, took long profits. Let's see what happens.

The overall trend is still bullish IMO, but I see it going down in the short term. Today it has been incredibly strong so I actually added more longs on the way to 77, but out now, looking for a double top there.

Bunch of manufacturing data out of China tomorrow, doubt it will look pretty (but that's speculation).

Epic fight between the bulls and the bears for the 77 mark, unfortunately I have to go to bed so SL set at 771, too stressful for me.

AUD still looking crazy strong on short term 1m chart, I rather regret not waiting for a bearish confirmation signal.

If i'm correct, this morning's dip and subsequent up move created a support for AU at the 7550 - 7580 region.

Will be buying again if it hits the above level. Any bounce from there will probably have a target of 7730 and above.

I wonder if this was it? missed top by 7 pips, might get another shot, this down move from here has been quite sharp 45 or so in 20/25 mins on AU...