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  • #96,121
  • Mar 29, 2016 10:21am Mar 29, 2016 10:21am
sell the rally! A dovish Yellen only reinforces the possibility of the RBA leaning more towards cutting rates if the Aussie remains where it is. Traders will certainly have that in mind.
  • #96,122
  • Mar 29, 2016 1:49pm Mar 29, 2016 1:49pm
Quoting ell3
sell the rally! A dovish Yellen only reinforces the possibility of the RBA leaning more towards cutting rates if the Aussie remains where it is. Traders will certainly have that in mind.
its the opposite,if fed do not increase rates, rba wont cut rates as well. dovish fed statment=weaker usd=stronger commodity and save haven
  • #96,123
  • Mar 29, 2016 2:09pm Mar 29, 2016 2:09pm
Since Jan, AudUsd had tested double bottom, and a good level for long. I wonder if anyone had hold AU long for swaps. Personally think it's a good return.

1 day, it generate about 0.15% interest, assuming a month of 20 working days will generate about 3%.

According to Aud interest rate of 2% and Usd interest rate of approximate 0.5%, but I got only 0.11% from my broker. Anyone can share more about this?
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #96,124
  • Mar 29, 2016 3:30pm Mar 29, 2016 3:30pm
Quoting ell3
sell the rally! A dovish Yellen only reinforces the possibility of the RBA leaning more towards cutting rates if the Aussie remains where it is. Traders will certainly have that in mind.
I don't agree, the RBA will not lower rates in the short term (ie. next meeting), nor will they indicate as such.

Quoting kinspk
Since Jan, AudUsd had tested double bottom, and a good level for long. I wonder if anyone had hold AU long for swaps. Personally think it's a good return. 1 day, it generate about 0.15% interest, assuming a month of 20 working days will generate about 3%. According to Aud interest rate of 2% and Usd interest rate of approximate 0.5%, but I got only 0.11% from my broker. Anyone can share more about this?
Cost of borrowing I presume?
  • #96,125
  • Mar 29, 2016 7:18pm Mar 29, 2016 7:18pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} I don't agree, the RBA will not lower rates in the short term (ie. next meeting), nor will they indicate as such. {quote} Cost of borrowing I presume?
If RBA will not cut rates fast they will completely kill what is left of the economy. It'll be a very foolish move.
  • #96,126
  • Edited 7:58pm Mar 29, 2016 7:21pm | Edited 7:58pm
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} If RBA will not cut rates fast they will completely kill what is left of the economy. It'll be a very foolish move.
I think they will hold on any move untill after the election.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,127
  • Mar 29, 2016 10:03pm Mar 29, 2016 10:03pm
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} If RBA will not cut rates fast they will completely kill what is left of the economy. It'll be a very foolish move.
The RBA are a bunch of fools - far from not dropping rates, they are always talking up the economy which always pushes AUD higher.
  • #96,128
  • Mar 29, 2016 10:37pm Mar 29, 2016 10:37pm
politics, politics. But I still believe they will consider cutting rates at least once more in the near future. They've made a couple of references of their discomfort towards the "current exchange rate" plus they've also said they believe the current level is "temporary". That should put a cap on the aud, bearing in mind also that at this point the aud rise still appears technical. But good point there about the nzd and its climb despite 3x cuts.
  • #96,129
  • Mar 30, 2016 12:22am Mar 30, 2016 12:22am
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this is my prediction well in paint lol need to use my proper chart but ive noticed aussie has been trading off technical retracements from way back and i have followed it up from 3 months ago and has been doing well with my technical, so i thought i take a wider gambit and predict another 3 months. to 80 cents or around lining up with the old 80 cent before it fell.
  • #96,130
  • Mar 30, 2016 12:43am Mar 30, 2016 12:43am
I think AU is very close to locking in a 0.78xx target.

Either it make it there straight up or we get another round of consolidation.
So just like 0.77xx........ 0.78xx is coming sooner or later.
  • #96,131
  • Mar 30, 2016 3:02am Mar 30, 2016 3:02am
Started taking some shorts at 0.7675 - these are short term positions, 4h uptrend is very much intact and the wedge was broken to the upside, so overall the thesis is very bullish.

There's quite a lot of data still left this week, both US and Chinese - and then next week, we have 2 major data points for AU on Monday, retail sales and building approvals, and then RBA statement & rate on Tuesday.

Should be quite a lot of action.
  • #96,132
  • Mar 30, 2016 3:10am Mar 30, 2016 3:10am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} If RBA will not cut rates fast they will completely kill what is left of the economy. It'll be a very foolish move.
Foolish moves shouldn't surprise from the current Circus Animals , although in this case I don't think the RBA cutting rates would have the minutest impact on the economy, the previous cuts have demonstrated that. Cheap wine won't solve any of the issues in Oz, there needs to be a bit of pain to bring it all to a head. RBAs moves have been ineffectual, as have most Reserve Banks, the market is now dictating the AUD and sentiment is driving the market. Miners will continue the plight Shipping steel and whatever else, just tightening belts and waiting til the war is over before correcting balance sheets.

Bear in mind also, Glenn Stevens finishes up third quarter of this year, so I probably wouldn't expect any heroics

I think they will hold tight a bit longer and wait on the Fed another six weeks. Even Bill Evans has now called the end of cuts. I would expect the move to be up. But....who knows, we're standing on the outside .
  • #96,133
  • Mar 30, 2016 3:33am Mar 30, 2016 3:33am
Quoting Greeny
{quote} Foolish moves shouldn't surprise from the current Circus Animals , although in this case I don't think the RBA cutting rates would have the minutest impact on the economy, the previous cuts have demonstrated that. Cheap wine won't solve any of the issues in Oz, there needs to be a bit of pain to bring it all to a head. RBAs moves have been ineffectual, as have most Reserve Banks, the market is now dictating the AUD and sentiment is driving the market. Miners will continue the plight Shipping steel and whatever else, just tightening belts...

The political scene is a joke at the moment. The incumbents are threatening to force a near term election, as they perceive their popularity is waning, so time's not on their side. They have "subtlely" leaked one unpopular tax proposal and budget component after another, then changed directions quicker than I switch from short to long. They don't seem to be able to figure out how to put on a matching pair of socks in the morning, let alone figure out how to manage an economy. But things could be worse. At least there is no Donald Trump contesting leadership. Anyhow, I'm long at the moment, because it's safer to go with the flow.
  • #96,134
  • Mar 30, 2016 4:19am Mar 30, 2016 4:19am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
Started taking some shorts at 0.7675 - these are short term positions, 4h uptrend is very much intact and the wedge was broken to the upside, so overall the thesis is very bullish. There's quite a lot of data still left this week, both US and Chinese - and then next week, we have 2 major data points for AU on Monday, retail sales and building approvals, and then RBA statement & rate on Tuesday. Should be quite a lot of action.

Didn't realise so much stuff are out, need to check them out.

I'm looking at a possible top out around 0.78.... unless this pair wants to dip and consolidate again. Looks to me the risk to buy now is much higher than just a day ago Lol. That shows how much shorts got caught out.
  • #96,135
  • Mar 30, 2016 4:36am Mar 30, 2016 4:36am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} The political scene is a joke at the moment. The incumbents are threatening to force a near term election, as they perceive their popularity is waning, so time's not on their side. They have "subtlely" leaked one unpopular tax proposal and budget component after another, then changed directions quicker than I switch from short to long. They don't seem to be able to figure out how to put on a matching pair of socks in the morning, let alone figure out how to manage an economy. But things could be worse. At least there is no Donald Trump contesting...
Agreed...political pool is certainly on the shallow side...not sure what the option is...maybe I will run myself. Todays announcement is another ridiculous idea to put on your list, nothing but a case of cerebral flatulence from the PM. But yes, you are correct, at least we don't have the battle between The Donald and The Presidents Wife....can I say that? Your longs are probably safer longer term, the AUD seems to have a floor.
  • #96,136
  • Mar 30, 2016 5:41am Mar 30, 2016 5:41am
Good climb recently.
  • #96,137
  • Mar 30, 2016 6:42am Mar 30, 2016 6:42am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} Didn't realise so much stuff are out, need to check them out. I'm looking at a possible top out around 0.78.... unless this pair wants to dip and consolidate again. Looks to me the risk to buy now is much higher than just a day ago Lol. That shows how much shorts got caught out.
I'm thinking along the same lines.

As of right now, no clear path.
  • #96,138
  • Mar 30, 2016 8:40am Mar 30, 2016 8:40am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} I'm thinking along the same lines. As of right now, no clear path.

Agree, too high to buy and still need reversal signs for shorts.

Anyway spotted weakness in GU, probably heading towards 1.43 support. So i guess the AU bulls will take a break for now
  • #96,139
  • Mar 30, 2016 6:30pm Mar 30, 2016 6:30pm
Fair comment from you guys...certainly worth waiting for some clearer direction. Sometimes no position is a position. Plenty to come though.
  • #96,140
  • Mar 30, 2016 6:51pm Mar 30, 2016 6:51pm
Long off 5M support @ 0.7649
Looking for a push above yesterday high
138% EXT @ 0.7734
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