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  • #81
  • Mar 27, 2016 3:59am Mar 27, 2016 3:59am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} didn't see a channel, update... {image}
I changed my mind. Price may drop like a rock and not retest at all.
So i trade half breakout trades and half retest trades and take the draw-down on retest.
First thing when markets open i place sell stops below the channels.
I have 1 short, the idea is that i end up with 4 (1+ (6 x 0.5)) and just risked 1 at all times.
On a clean break without retest i still have 2.5 short but less risk.
  • #82
  • Mar 29, 2016 2:59am Mar 29, 2016 2:59am
changes UJ, don't feel like posting much here anymore..
Its a bat. Weather it will work remains to be seen.

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  • #83
  • Mar 29, 2016 4:24am Mar 29, 2016 4:24am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} didn't see a channel, update... {image}
Neither did I. I'm long here but your chart scares me!
Gone to a better place
  • #84
  • Mar 29, 2016 4:42am Mar 29, 2016 4:42am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} I actually did not get stopped out to the pip.. I choose the conservative T1. {image}
T2 met too.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #85
  • Edited 4:55am Mar 29, 2016 4:44am | Edited 4:55am
my UJ bat i tried to post before.
stop above red line.
I will try to add to my short position.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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My target is the same target as the pennant earlier in thread:
Quoting longshot_nl
So this is what happened... Hopefully a test of the 23.6 fib level soon. {image}
  • #86
  • Mar 29, 2016 5:02am Mar 29, 2016 5:02am
Quoting longshot_nl
my UJ bat i tried to post before. stop above red line. I will try to add to my short position. {image} My target is the same target as the pennant earlier in thread: {quote}
15 minute chart of uj..
This level often gets tested afterwards, not always.
I will add here with a tight stop.
If its limping towards this level, even better.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM15.png Size: 119 KB
  • #87
  • Mar 29, 2016 5:13am Mar 29, 2016 5:13am
High impact USD numbers coming out later today.
I have to gamble these numbers are bad for USD otherwise my setup is gone..
  • #88
  • Mar 29, 2016 5:42am Mar 29, 2016 5:42am
Quoting longshot_nl
High impact USD numbers coming out later today. I have to gamble these numbers are bad for USD otherwise my setup is gone..
With high impact numbers on the way i want to place a breakout trade below and above the range at that time..
We can expect a high spread which could take my short positions stop loss out..
I just have to have faith in my bat pattern.

15:00: USD - CB Consumer Confidence
17:20: USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
  • #89
  • Mar 29, 2016 6:10am Mar 29, 2016 6:10am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} 15 minute chart of uj.. This level often gets tested afterwards, not always. I will add here with a tight stop. If its limping towards this level, even better. {image}
I am glad that that worked out so far.
I will add again on the break and retest of the strong TL.
At that time the stoplosses of my first two trades are set at BE.
The red arrows are my short positions at this time.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM15.png Size: 140 KB
  • #90
  • Mar 29, 2016 6:29am Mar 29, 2016 6:29am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} With high impact numbers on the way i want to place a breakout trade below and above the range at that time.. We can expect a high spread which could take my short positions stop loss out.. I just have to have faith in my bat pattern. 15:00: USD - CB Consumer Confidence 17:20: USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
Within the confines of the weekly range 110 - 114, especially the weekly bar of 13/3. I can see why you are keen to short this pair, as the consolidation forms a flag. I'm looking to resistance at 114 and 114.50 for price action.
Gone to a better place
  • #91
  • Mar 29, 2016 6:51am Mar 29, 2016 6:51am
This is probably worth a look, currently retesting:

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Gone to a better place
  • #92
  • Mar 29, 2016 7:01am Mar 29, 2016 7:01am
Quoting smikester
This is probably worth a look, currently retesting: {image}
Its nice!
I'd like to see more candles below the neck before a retest.
To me a retest has to be relevant to the time-frame.
  • #93
  • Mar 29, 2016 7:05am Mar 29, 2016 7:05am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Within the confines of the weekly range 110 - 114, especially the weekly bar of 13/3. I can see why you are keen to short this pair, as the consolidation forms a flag. I'm looking to resistance at 114 and 114.50 for price action.
I have this teal channel at 114.
But for now its humping against the white TL.
It is also a bat.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #94
  • Mar 29, 2016 7:18am Mar 29, 2016 7:18am
EG buy opportunity.
15 pips sl.

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  • #95
  • Mar 29, 2016 7:19am Mar 29, 2016 7:19am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} I have this teal channel at 114. But for now its humping against the white TL. It is also a bat. {image}
Yes that's the "flag". I was not aware it formed a bat as harmonics are a mystery to me.
Gone to a better place
  • #96
  • Edited 7:51am Mar 29, 2016 7:34am | Edited 7:51am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} I am glad that that worked out so far. I will add again on the break and retest of the strong TL. At that time the stoplosses of my first two trades are set at BE. The red arrows are my short positions at this time. {image}

I think it is safe to say it is broken. I don't really like it if retest is too soon.
My I move my stop-losses t break even.
The expected high impact events may trigger the retest of the TL.
It may get violent.
If the news is good for USD we may see 114 anyhow and we have to start all over again.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #97
  • Edited 8:07am Mar 29, 2016 7:42am | Edited 8:07am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Yes that's the "flag". I was not aware it formed a bat as harmonics are a mystery to me.
One way harmonics work is when the levels in it are exactly right.
http://www.geocities.ws/tradeharmoni...-patterns.html

If they don't exactly match the A,B,C and D have to form an AB=CD pattern in order for it to work.

In this case there is no AB=CD pattern but the levels match.

edit: found this one, even better...
http://neoharmonics.com/neoHarmonics...tAndRatios.pdf
  • #98
  • Edited 9:57am Mar 29, 2016 8:30am | Edited 9:57am
EUR/CHF perhaps later today.
target is not even on the chart.

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  • #99
  • Edited 9:11am Mar 29, 2016 8:50am | Edited 9:11am
UJ update.

I added a blue line.
If the line breaks i look for a retest to short it.
I will not close any positions here.
The idea is to risk 1 trade at all times and build a large position.
There might be a clean break (no retest) and then i would be out of a position.
So no position closing.
If I like the line so much I can hedge my position.
The red arrows mark where i have positions.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM15.png Size: 144 KB
  • #100
  • Mar 29, 2016 9:05am Mar 29, 2016 9:05am
First news usd is good for currency but no reaction which is fine by me...
One more news event left: Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
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