Plan the Trade / Trade the plan

Hi everyone,

First I would like to introduce myself. My name is Stef, I live in Belgium and have been trading forex on demo accounts since 2014. It took me some time and I had to read a few books before I could come up with a strategy that would fit my expectations. Because I have a rather busy life and I can't sit at my computer for hours every day (Work, Children and a grilfriend that needs a lot of attention ), I chose a swing trade strategy that I adjusted over time and I'm still adjusting when I think it's necessary.

I keep a trading journal and review every trade I make. Based on this reviews I will adjust my strategy.
It took me some time to find a strategy that worked for me, but today I am trading for a few months with a strategy that fits and that I would like to test for the coming year or so.
I will keep setting up goals and try to hit them as time passes. My primary goal however is to create a strategy that is profitable in the long run so I can start trading live.

In this thread I would like to present to you my strategy and keep you posted on every trade I make aswell on the outlook I have on the market.
For now I will only trade GBP/USD because I want to specialize in this market first before I move to the next one.

In the next few days I will explain my strategy and afterwards keep you posted on every trade I make.
In the meantime you can follow the trades I made via this link and click thru:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post8835157

If you have any questions on my strategy or tradeplan please feel free to ask!

I wish you a happy pippin'

Outlook Update GBP/USD | 24/03/2016

EMA 5 crossed SMA 8, H4 candle closed.

1. Trend D (EMA 200) - DOWN
2. Speed D (EMA 55 / EMA 21) - DOWN
3. Momentum D (SMA 8/EMA 5) - DOWN
4. Momentum H4 (SMA 8/EMA 5) - UP

1. Bias D/H4 (EMA 55/21, High and Low, Trendline) - LONG
2. Entry H4 (SMA 8/EMA 5, RSI) - BUY

Also I am looking at an inverted hammer on the H4 which could indicate a reversal.
Not expecting a lot more movement for the day. Possible doji forming on the D chart, or even better a hanging man which would signal a reversal.
Hopefully "Good Friday" tomorrow and in the pips!

I will start this thread by sharing the first trade that matters which is trade #9 on GBP/USD.
Previous trades I made on the explorer don't matter since I was still testing some things.

Setup
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post8833423
Entry
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post8833808
Outlook
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post8834236
Management 1
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post8834357
Psychology
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post8834498
Report 1
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post8834709
Management 2
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...67#post8834767
Exit
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...60#post8835060
Report 2
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post8835574
Review
Coming Soon

Hi everyone,

In this post I will describe to you the strategy I use for this trading journal. It's a swing trading strategy with a risk management system.
I always use a S/L and most of the times a T/P to calculate my Risk/Reward. I'm always looking for setups that give me a Risk/Reward of minimum 1:2 of higher.

I like to trade with the trend and not against it. I have a set of rules to define the trend.
My risk percentage is calculated on the probability that I'm trading a trend or a retracement. Also the T/P is adjusted accordingly.
I will never take a risk greater than 3% of my account.
The lotsize I use depends on the risk I am willing to take as on where my S/L is.

I'm using the daily chart to analyse the market and to find possible entry zones. The entry point and signal is found on the H4 chart.

 

1. Analysing the market

To analyse the market I use the daily chart. On the daily chart there are 5 indicators.
To find entry signals I use the H4 chart.

- EMA 200 (Black) - To define the current trend on the Daily Chart.
If Price moves below EMA 200 we have a downtrend, If price moves above EMA 200 we have an uptrend.

- EMA 55 / 21 (Brown / Blue) - To define the current speed on the Daily Chart.
EMA 55 is used to define if the market is actually trending or ranging. The farther EMA 55 is from EMA 200 the stronger the trend.
EMA 21 is used to define the market speed. The farther away it moves from the EMA 55 the faster the speed. If they move towards eachother you can define the trend is slowing down.

- SMA 8 / EMA 5 (Red / Green) - To define the current momentum on the Daily Chart / As an entry signal on the H4 Chart.
If EMA 5 moves below SMA 8 we have down momentum, if EMA 5 moves above SMA 8 we have Up momentum.
The entry signals are found on the H4 chart. When the trade setup has been made the crossing of EMA 5 / SMA 8 will trigger Buy or Sell entries.

1. Identifying the buy or sell zones

To Identify the buy or sell zone I will use fibonacci retracements. As you know fibonacci is alway drawn from the swing Low to the swing High for an uptrend and from the swing High to the swing Low for a downtrend.

In an uptrend we draw fibonacci lines from the Higher Low to the Higher High
In a downtrend we draw fibonacci lines from the Lower High to the Lower Low

The only difficult thing here is, how do we define a Low or a High? From where do we exactly draw our fibonacci? This is what I have been struggeling to do for a long time.

That's why I use this rule to define Highs and Lows:

If EMA 5 crosses SMA 8 on the D Chart, so EMA 5 is above SMA 8 then we have another LOW.
If EMA 5 crosses SMA 8 on the D Chart, so EMA 5 is below SMA 8 then we have another HIGH.

More will follow.

#10 Trade Setup

Hey guys,

I missed the entry on my last trade setup since I haven't been at my computer, would have been in the greens.
Market moved as I expected.

Trade Setup #10 (No entry)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post8835816

My bias will change to short if price makes a new Lower High on the D Chart.
Since the daily trend, speed and momentum are down the trade will be with the trend so risk percentage will go up to 3%.

For now I have placed a sell stop below the 23.6 fib line @ 1.42283. With an S/L above the 38.2 fib line @ 1.42346 (-75PIPS).
Since we are trading with the trend I will use fibE 61.8 @ 1.40096 (+150PIPS) and S/R line @ 1.38596 (+300PIPS) for the T/P.

This gives me a trade setup with a Risk/Reward > 1 : 2.

Sell stop is below SMA 8 so this is where I expect EMA 5 to cross SMA 8 and have an entry signal. If price moves higher I will also adjust my setup.
Rsi isn't overbought yet.

Update

Possible shooting star forming on H4, this will count as an entry signal.


Outlook update GBP/USD 28/03/2016

1. Trend D (EMA 200) - DOWN
2. Speed D (EMA 55 / EMA 21) - DOWN
3. Momentum D (SMA 8/EMA 5) - DOWN
4. Momentum H4 (SMA 8/EMA 5) - UP

1. Bias D/H4 (EMA 55/21, High and Low) - LONG
2. Entry H4 (SMA 8/EMA 5, RSI) - WAIT

#9 Trade Review

For trade 9 I got stopped out at breakeven and closed in only 3 PIPS.

Market moved right up to the T/P zone so I could have been in profit.
The S/L was moved up to breakeven too early.

For next trades S/L will always only be adjusted to 5 pips below previous candle on the D chart and only if candle has closed.
If breakeven has been reached, S/L will be adjusted on H4 till MAP can be closed in. After that adjusting on the D chart.

Screenshot 1 Setup
Screenshot 2 Close

Setup
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post8833423
Entry
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post8833808
Outlook
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post8834236
Management 1
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post8834357
Psychology
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post8834498
Report 1
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post8834709
Management 2
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...67#post8834767
Exit
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...60#post8835060
Report 2
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post8835574
Review
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post8838844

#10 Trade Setup Management

Possible shooting star forming on H4, this will count as an entry signal.
If candle closes and forms a shooting star, Sell stop will be moved @ 1.42117 with S/L @ 1.42867 (-75PIPS)

T/P will stay @ 1.40096 and @ 1.38569.

This will increase our Risk/Reward to 1 : 2,6.

#10 Trade Setup
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post8838674

#10 Trade Setup Management 2

H4 candle closed, shooting star formed.

Moved Sell Stop to 1.42117 for a reduced lotsize. Will scale in @ +- 1.42117 if EMA 5 crosses SMA 8.

1St shooting star was a false entry pattern, 2n shooting star formed.

Update Stop Out
Moved up my sell stop for a smaller lotsize to 1.41227 but got stopped out this night.

-> I will wait for EMA 5 to cross SMA 8 as entry signals on the H4.
-> I will only use Patterns as an entry signal on the Daily chart.

#10 Trade Setup
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post8838674
#10 Trade Setup Management
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post8838936

#10 Trade Setup Management 3

For now, as I will wait for EMA 5 to cross SMA 8 as an entry signal.
I have moved my sell stop @ 1.42242, this is where EMA 5 will probably cross SMA 8, with an S/L @ 1.42995.
T/P stays the same.

If EMA 5 crosses SMA 8 on the D chart momentum D will set to UP.
-> Movement up will probably go on and a new trade setup will follow.
-> RSI isn't overbought yet.

A head/shoulders pattern being formed on the H4?

#10 Trade Setup
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post8838674
#10 Trade Setup Management
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post8838936
#10 Trade Setup Management 2
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post8840426

Outlook Update GBPUSD | 29/03/2016

EMA 5 Crossed SMA 8 on the Daily chart, Momentum D is up.
I expect price to move up to 1.44150 zone before it's heading south.

Rsi is overbought, waiting for an entry signal on my trade plan.

 

1. Trend D (EMA 200) - DOWN
2. Speed D (EMA 55 / EMA 21) - DOWN
3. Momentum D (SMA 8/EMA 5) - UP
4. Momentum H4 (SMA 8/EMA 5) - UP

1. Bias D/H4 (EMA 55/21, High and Low) - LONG
2. Entry H4 (SMA 8/EMA 5, RSI) - WAIT

# Trade Setup Management 4

FIb 78.6% broken, lowered my risk to 2%.
Waiting on entry.

For now I have placed my sell stop @ 1.43554.
S/L @ 1.44554 (-100PIPS)
T/P 1 @ 1.40554 (+300PIPS)
T/P 2 @ 1.39554 (+360PIPS)
MAP @ 1.43354 (+20PIPS) when it hits 1.42354 (+120PIPS)

Risk : Reward > 1 : 3
Risk = 2%


#10 Trade Setup
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post8838674
#10 Trade Setup Management
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post8838936
#10 Trade Setup Management 2
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post8840426
#10 Trade Setup Management 3
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post8840439

# Trade Setup Management 5

Expecting price to go south shortly. RSI is overbought, momentum H4 is decreasing.

Have placed my sell stop @1.43756
S/L @ 1.44656 (-90PIPS)
T/P 1 @ 1.40556 (+320PIPS)
T/P 2 @ 1.40006 (+375PIPS)
MAP @ 1.43556 (+20PIPS) if it hits 1.42656 (+110PIPS)

Waiting on entry.


#10 Trade Setup
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post8838674
#10 Trade Setup Management
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post8838936
#10 Trade Setup Management 2
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post8840426
#10 Trade Setup Management 3
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post8840439
#10 Trade Setup Management 4
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post8842869

# Trade Entry / Management

Hey Guys,

As you can see the sell stop got hit. Didn't get to my computer yet until now to report.
Just changed my S/L to MAP @ 1.43556 because it hit 1.42656 for the biggest lot.
For the other lot I removed my T/P and started a trailing stop of 90PIPS.

#10 Trade Setup
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post8838674
#10 Trade Setup Management
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post8838936
#10 Trade Setup Management 2
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post8840426
#10 Trade Setup Management 3
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post8840439
#10 Trade Setup Management 4
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post8842869
#10 Trade Setup Management 5
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post8843487

Outloook Update GBP/USD | 1/04/2016

Price made 1 LH so Bias is set to short. EMA 5 crossed SMA 8 momentum H4 is down.

1. Trend D (EMA 200) - DOWN
2. Speed D (EMA 55 / EMA 21) - DOWN
3. Momentum D (SMA 8/EMA 5) - UP
4. Momentum H4 (SMA 8/EMA 5) - DOWN

1. Bias D/H4 (EMA 55/21, High and Low) - SHORT
2. Entry H4 (SMA 8/EMA 5, RSI) - SELL

#10 Trade Report

165 PIPS up

S/L 1 still @ MAP 1.43556 will be adjusted below previous candle on the daily.
S/L 2 trailing @ 90PIPS

T/P 1 @ 1.40510

EMA 5 is about to cross SMA 8 on the Daily. Momentum D will be adjusted to down if candle closes.
Still thinking about scaling in.

#10 Trade Setup
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post8838674
#10 Trade Setup Management
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post8838936
#10 Trade Setup Management 2
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post8840426
#10 Trade Setup Management 3
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post8840439
#10 Trade Setup Management 4
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post8842869
#10 Trade Setup Management 5
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post8843487
#10 Trade Entry / Management
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post8848598

#10 Trade Report / Exit 1

Got stopped out for the smallest lot on the trailing stop. Closed in 112 PIPS.

Other lot still running, S/L still @ MAP 1.43556
Will adjust to 5 pips above previous candle if daily candle is bearish and is closing.

For now market looks like it's retracing to the 50% fib line. EMA 5 crossed SMA 8 upward so for now momentum H4 is set to UP.
On the daily chart EMA 5 is crossing SMA 8 down so momentum D is set to DOWN.

Outloook Update GBP/USD | 4/04/2016

1. Trend D (EMA 200) - DOWN
2. Speed D (EMA 55 / EMA 21) - DOWN
3. Momentum D (SMA 8/EMA 5) - DOWN
4. Momentum H4 (SMA 8/EMA 5) - UP

1. Bias D/H4 (EMA 55/21, High and Low) - SHORT
2. Entry H4 (SMA 8/EMA 5, RSI) - WAIT

#10 Trade Setup
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post8838674
#10 Trade Setup Management
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post8838936
#10 Trade Setup Management 2
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post8840426
#10 Trade Setup Management 3
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post8840439
#10 Trade Setup Management 4
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post8842869
#10 Trade Setup Management 5
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post8843487
#10 Trade Entry / Management
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post8848598
#10 Trade Report
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post8851406

#11 Trade Setup

Market retraced to 50% fib line, momentum Daily is down.
Rsi > 30 on trade #10.
I have a new setup since I got stopped out in trade #10 on my trailing stop.
For now I placed a sell stop below SMA 8. This is where I expect EMA 5 to cross SMA 8 so we have an entry signal.
T/P will stay the same as trade #10 with a little adjustment.

Sell stop @ 1.42412
S/L @ 1.43262 (-85PIPS)
T/P1 @ 1.40712 (+170PIPS)
T/P2 @ 1.38412 (+400PIPS)
MAP is set at 20PIPS @ 1.42212 when it hits 1.41362.
Risk = 2%

Lot 1 will run with adjustable S/L on the daily.
Lot 2 will run with trailing stop when it hits MAP.

This gives me a setup with a Reward / Risk of 3.35 / 1.

#11 Trade Entry

Sell stop got hit on trade #11, EMA 5 crossed SMA 8 so momentum H4 is set to down.

Outloook Update GBP/USD | 5/04/2016

 

1. Trend D (EMA 200) - DOWN
2. Speed D (EMA 55 / EMA 21) - DOWN
3. Momentum D (SMA 8/EMA 5) - DOWN
4. Momentum H4 (SMA 8/EMA 5) - DOWN

1. Bias D/H4 (EMA 55/21, High and Low) - SHORT
2. Entry H4 (SMA 8/EMA 5, RSI) - SELL

#11 Trade Setup
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post8852836

#10 Trade Management

For trade 10 I moved my S/L to 5 pips above the last candle @ 1.42828.

214 Pips Up!

#10 Trade Setup
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post8838674
#10 Trade Setup Management
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post8838936
#10 Trade Setup Management 2
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post8840426
#10 Trade Setup Management 3
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post8840439
#10 Trade Setup Management 4
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post8842869
#10 Trade Setup Management 5
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post8843487
#10 Trade Entry / Management
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post8848598
#10 Trade Report
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post8851406
#10 Trade Report / Exit 1
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post8852816