AlanB trade plan and journal

For myself mostly, to make it easier to organise my thoughts.

I'm learning, I'm not great, I'll get it wrong, and none of these are recommendations, so leave attitudes at the door if you really feel like you want to comment on anything in here - constructive criticism, comments and suggestions are very welcome though.

Ok, so welcome to my mess. I did say it was mostly for myself, so if nobody else understands it then oh well

Weekly is looking similar to Daily to me. I don't put a lot of stock in 4hr/daily/weekly charts, however, in terms of formations. 1hour plus TF for me is more about identifying levels, 15, 5 and 1minute are for trading once I see how price reacts at my identified levels.

My predictions are sometimes right, sometimes not, but that's ok because I don't trade the predictions - I trade when I see what is happening at the levels I have defined as places to look for PA.

I look for where the money is hidden, because that is where price is likely will go - it's more likely to move where there will be orders built up.


Below this area I see very little, it could push down to the monthly lows - there are bound to be orders built up there. I don't know, I doubt that move will happen. From what I can see, if it is to drop even lower it'd take a lot of effort to do so .. it was running out of steam already by the end of Friday, before it reached the MAJOR level below, so I don't see how so little liquidity over the weekend interbank period and then Sunday night will allow it to drop. After all, who are the big banks going to take the money from if the markets for joe public aren't even open?

Far as I can tell they were buying all the way down that second leg to the bottom on Friday evening. We'll soon see. I am not sure if it will gap up/down on Sunday night, I'm half expecting a small gap down to load up on what orders they can gather on the lower TF before pushing higher up.

Then again, an earthquake might hit Germany and the EURUSD will open at 0.7563 in which case I'll go get a real job again

And just for fun, this is what the chart I actually use to find areas and key price movements (stop run, order collection, exhaustion, etc) looks like. Made it myself, I did.

For a bit of fun, this is an old trade I made from my personal 'trade journal' folder .. Partly made this thread because it is getting hard to keep track of my thoughts using a folder and sometimes I lose sight of the bigger picture due to the noise created during a trade session.

A nice reminder to myself that I can make money if I analyse correctly and don't let emotions shit things up. Oops, can I say shit in here?

So far so good for my analysis (small gap down then a reload on lower TF plus clearing of some orders above (and dragging them down to kill them off )), let's post a first live entry and see where that gets me



edit: that's a bnit of a tiny picture in hindsight, entry is 1.22898

I entered on 1minute, so I thought I'd post the chart that convinced me of where to enter (after checking higher TF for areas to look for PA)

here you can see a) area of orders, that's now been cleared, a nice engulfing bar, and then a pin at B.. all confirmation candles in my eyes that the area has been cleared of as many orders as they are going to get and it will go up now (volume of the first poke down into that area is higher (around 14:15) than the lowest poke down at 16:07 and then the candles pushing up have ever increasing volume showing increased trading activity.

Those are some of my thoughts behind my entry, whether they work out or not we'll see shortly eh. I'd expect another shot down below so if it happens shortly I wont worry but it has to have complete exhaustion showing or my plan is in trouble.

As expected, second poke down happened. Getting nicely tired as it moves down picking up those last few orders and reaching the origin of supply off to the left, a 13 pip drawdown in total from my entry and has as I type this reached the area I marked as #2. Will be looking for higher TF targets now.

Having taken partial profit at the small TF targets it has since come back and stopped the rest out at BE. No worries, BE is also a win in my book. 0 is a higher number than -X afterall

Entry pretty much same place as before, pretty much same reasons as before, just 5 pips lower. Which is nice.

Target of 1.23333 as it's the first resistance just above highs of yesterday in my view, I'll take some off the table at 1.23100 and 1.23250 however.


edit: all off at first target 1.23100 I don't like the way it looks, I rushed as I got up and took the entry as it formed, but after looking through the chart more I think this has more downside left before any upside can begin proper. 1.2270/75 to look for next entry point

Looks good for a sell from here, will watch as it reaches 3 especially for signs that it's going to either sell off and reach new lows or it's exhausting and about to begin the big move up. Will look for 2270 for reversal, if that goes then 50 is target and 2237 will be a place to look for an 'all in' long.

Update: So much for that trade. Funnily enough the long I took off earlier thinking it wont work out reached to within .3 of a pip of my target The market really knows how to mess with my head.

update 2: Re-enter 1.23292. Same old same old trade reasons, same targets.


update 3: Exited. Money is good. Thanks for the money Mr Market. Looking for signs that this will reverse from here on.

Update 4: Not looking for reversal now, it's crawled slowly back up quite far already, looks like it is coiling for a second pop down and could push it much farther now - entered a short 1.22925

Update 5: Closed.

So taken a buy here, it reached the lower lows as I had hoped, found signs that it might be ready to reverse now - 15 minute view and 1 minute entry shown here, usual reasons, usual type of targets. This time I'm hoping for a longer TF target to be reached. I'm not very good with longer TFs, I tend to play the bounces back and forth between 40-60 pip zones before it shoots off 200 pips and I'm already out

update: I guess my original plan for 2237 was better then eh? Stopped out of long, going to check what happens here and enter/stay out.

update 2: 1.22415

update 3: All out at target #1, I don't like how it's forming, I'd rather miss out on all those extra pips if it moves up than give back the money I already have Looking to see what happens and where now.

L 1.22622

Edit Details:

6.5 pip DD so far, seems to have taken off from my entry now, will monitor and take 0 or very small loss at most of it comes back down.

Fairly usual reasons for entry, but also as I was looking at the area last night as accumulating of buys, plus the gradual drift up and spikes up showing the result of those buys, the move up this morning did not complete past that first target level above (B) breaking it implying unfinished business still to do up t here (to me anyway ) So I chose the area of the original thrust up today (A) as a place to look for a 1minute entry.

Update: 10.2 pip DD .. FUUU forex, leave my pips alone let's see if this stop sout in a moment, still looks good to me, like it is getting ready to pounce and my gtfo point has not been reached yet.

Update 2: Out +20, don't trust it anymore

Update 2: Re-entry, 1.22620

Update 3: 13.9pip DD - Come on, Forex, turn around and give me my pips back

Update 3: Out .. I guess the market wanted those pips back afterall.

Update 4: 1.2232 buy buy buy Nothing new here, same reasons just in a different place of the chart. Targets 1.2253, then 1.2280 then 1.2310 ..

Update 5: Or not .. closed with a few pips, the more I look between the TFs the more I question which direction the 'big move' is going to come and while I'll happily bounce long/short between short TF target levels I do prefer to keep my trades in the same direction as the main movement.

Update 6: Sure glad I closed that long .. Had a small short on, caught some of the move but it was so fast that I closed incase it was going to spring back so couple quid made but nothing special sadly no where near the full 50 pips! I suspect it'll go up from here (1.221 ish after FOMC announcement) but I'm sure not going to enter a trade to prove it.

Long at 1.21890 .. Fairly usual reasons I guess. Seems to have been a push down into orders below, doing my usual play of a retracement to origin. This time I'll try to keep part of the order open and at BE incase this is 'the very bottom' .. one day it will be afterall

Update: Damn, 1.5 pips from a poke in the eye, that was close .. here's hoping it doesn't spike down again :X

Update2: Re-enter 1.21740, tight stop.

Update3: out +5, looks like it'll drop more to me

Long at 1.21687, as you can see the usual reasons apply .. not the spike in volume as it pushes into orders (A), and then the final spike down (B) has the lowest volume indicating there's nothing left, and then (C) you have the break above that traded area. Targets 1, 2 and 3 off in the distance somewhere where I'll keep part of this trade open (assuming it works) as one day there'll be a bottom In the mean time I'll take my 20-40 pip trades and some profits at each target, small stops as usual ..

Note on stops, usually I run 12-16 pip stops where I can, but I am trying to be more and more precise with my entries and lower this to 6 or 7 pips. Once I see an order run and possibly exhaustion+reversal, there really is no need for a big stop on it - my analysis is either correct, in which case we'll rarely see much below the low where I enter, or it is not correct in which case I might as well get stopped out early and just wait for the thing to show another signal.

Update: That'll be target 1 reached then I guess. All out here, spiked up far too hard I'll expect a retrace and then look for another entry.

Update 2: Damnit, and that is the reason why I can't have nice things I guess I don't like fast moves, they are part of what I look for when trying to find a reversal area so they tend to make me exit a trade early .. and now target 2 has been reached without me onboard to collect the monies.

Update 3: FFS That's just insulting, 70 pips up and I took 20 of it. Yeah, well, I don't like making money anyway.

Good a place to sell as any I guess Low liquidity so a little buying on the drift down earlier allowed for a hard push up through many orders .. my only guess for why anyone with money would want to do that is if they intended to sell it all again at a lower price. Half expecting another push up, and my stop's a bit big for my liking due to the extended nature of the move, so I've used just a small trade size.

Update: Out, it's Friday afternoon and liquidity will dry up very soon. Looks like it's going to push up again higher so when target 1 was reached that was enough.

Selling at 1.21085 .. fairly typical looking setup, some quite close short term targets and a tight stop, eyeing a target around 1.2050 ish as well but I'll see how it reacts at #1 and #2 for whether I hold on longer or not.

Update: Damnit as I typed that it boinged up some pips 9 pip drawdown so far, a few more till stop, hopefully it'll work out ok ;D I never like to see it come back so soon as it makes some of the thinking behind the trade at that specific level invalid (supply/demand imbalance) now I look to see how it reacts around this area and either stay in or get out after a few more pips.


Update 2: Darn you forex they were my pips. Geez, that's fairly climbing up .. to get kicked out so quick and so badly from a trade is never good liquidity seems light, my guess is it's someone's idea of a way to push up into even more orders, whether they run it down or not from there or are looking for a higher price though I'll wait and see

Let's give that sell another try, entry 1.21244

A and B showing the low volume present lately that I said in previous post, notice how out of that area at B when it spiked down, there was very little volume coming in - it took so little buying to come in to push up and into the orders held above. Then the real liquidity came in on the spike up, a second attempt with low volume, and an exhaustion bar. All good signs for an entry, very tight stop, targets 1 and 2, and again 3 will depend on how it reacts at each point and whether I think the higher TF will provide a good run down. I'll examine 5minute shortly.


Update: 5 minutes looks good also, at A you see the usual overnight dance, then a gradual drift down to B indicating to me that given a relatively quiet period the natural flow of the price would be downwards. At B you see volume come in, a few spikes down, as it's reached an area where orders are - the few spikes into that demand area would indicate it is not too strong to me.

At the point I have marked "O" which was meant to be a C lol I note a spike up into the original overnight area, not much volume, but it was enough to push right down .. then a rebound up into D, a bit more wiggle wiggle, and that's where I took my first sale. Note however that it was able to push up from t here .. it had not hit a major supply point yet, not enough to overcome whatever buying came in from B. At E you see it hit last night's higher areas, and a spike in volume, plus a fairly convincing rejection. It's entirely possible, as in all trades, that it'll just go up and up and that buying from B was pretty definitive, but I've put my money on a sell at this point. Let's see.

This is the part of forex that sucks, the waiting - the analysis is fun but then you put your trade on and .. wait, to see if you are right or wrong. I'd like it if you could do the analysis, put your trade, and then skip right to the resolution ;D


Update 2: That's what I like to see, a nice drop down from my entry, it retests but I am only 1.5 pips into drawdown and now it's dropping again. That's the difference between a good entry (this one) and a bad one (earlier, where it drops a little then ploughs right back up) indicating I have chosen a good area where the dynamic of supply/demand has shifted. Soon as I can I'm setting this to break even, having been re-tested and shown to be fairly accurate in analysis I don't want to then suffer a loss if fresh buying comes in from somewhere out of the blue.

Update 3: There's that fresh buying I was talking about out at 0.

Sell 1.21330 - a little late on the chart, tbh I wasn't going to post it as I fully expect this to be one of those days where I get entry after entry that moves 10 pips then stops out at 0 again. Hey, I look for certain things and then I trade it, sometimes it doesn't work .. sometimes it doesn't work a few times in a row! But on average, it makes me money. So here's to you, forex! Now drop down and give me 40 (pips )

Update 1: Stop at BE+15

Update 2: Out at 1.20736 for +59.4 pips.


Update 3: Re-entering short, 1.21225

Update 4: Out +10

It sells the eurusd at 1.23091!!!

Details: So what have we got here then, a bit of a mess, lots of up/down etc. past few days, I've taken some trades but this morning missed the move down. Well as we see A broke below previous levels and popped up a bit, took in more orders and then dropped .. at B we have the break of A, with no convincing rally at all which to me suggests it has died with room to go down. At C we have some rally up, a big drop down, and then a bit of up and down so no rally off the big drop down in that area again implying more room to go down.

That leaves us on the one minute chart to find an entry, where we have a push up into the area where some big sells have come in, a spike in volume, some knocking up against the area with less and less volume, and then some nice engulfment at #1 after a brief third attempt to push up. We also have a solid attempt to drop down, which produced a rally with very little strength. With very little volume implying it's getting tired and old and given the higher TF, I entered here.

I don't like joining in a move this late in the day but it looks like throughout the area at C it has been accumulating more and more orders and is ready to just drop again .. Where to? Who knows I'd like to see a drop to 1.227 for exit.

Update: Also, at BE.

Update: First target, break of this area, took small profits, suspect I'll get stopped out for the rest though. Let's see.

Update 2: Took bigger profits now Leaving small trade on, no sense in losing 25 pips to try make 12

Update 3: Convincing rejection, will exit all at 1.229 and start looking at what develops, possibly a long from here.

Update 4: All out, long 1.2292

The long from 1.2291:

As you can clearly see it's the same as all my other trades ;D Got a push down below a traded area and a hard drop as stops are triggered, picking up some tasty money for the big guys. Then it trades this area briefly, note the pushing down into it again then a third time only not so convincing each time .. volume is dropped, then we have the third shallow drop and I entered on the break of this upwards. As of now, sitting at BE and already taken partial profit at 11 pips as it has just entered the traded area above that we broke down from.

Update Out for half, will wait for retrace and buy in again perhaps if it looks good. What is it they say in Vegas? "Winner winner, now I can afford dinner?!"

Update 2: For anyone wondering, that was the time for my rebuy - 1.2294

Update 3: And we're out again .. lol I can play this ten pip game all day, but sometimes I wish the market would move a lil.