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AUD/USD

  • #96,101
  • Mar 24, 2016 12:36am Mar 24, 2016 12:36am
[quote=10cents;8833241]{quote} I have read many wrote about shorting AU in February, with target sub 0.7xxxx....... and it just went bam! up 500 pips Lol. Those bears simply got flipped out. If the bears have any legs then i believe 0.74 needs to be given a test.[/quote

Its a pullback on the Monthly but yes alot of traders got caught including myself.

I have a few friends that are holding shorts as low as .69 My lowest short is at .70200 but its no problem I dont trade in high lot sizes and my DD is quite small.

4H has broken channel and appears the bull run is tiring out.

No trading now untill Tuesday/Wednessday next week, lets see what happens then.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,102
  • Mar 24, 2016 2:26am Mar 24, 2016 2:26am
I wouldn't get carried away with going short yet, because the past two days have just been all about USD buying. Compare the 1hr charts of all the major usd pairs..they all look the same. High risk that once this buying is done, pairs like the aud, jpy and euro may see a sharp reversal. In the aud the last thing I'd want is to go short at 74xx and then have it squeeze up to 77/78 cents.
That unfortunately is also making it hard for me to pull the trigger on almost any trade. Sighs.
  • #96,103
  • Mar 24, 2016 2:59am Mar 24, 2016 2:59am
Aud usd vs usd cad

oil vs usd cad
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  • #96,104
  • Mar 24, 2016 10:47am Mar 24, 2016 10:47am
I always knew that USD,AUD,CAD etc. strongly depend on oil value but not that much. Thanks for the graphs Dano12
  • #96,105
  • Mar 24, 2016 10:54am Mar 24, 2016 10:54am
damm I hope this latest support aussie has got on 4 hr is false one and it breaks. 7515 is acting as a barrier now
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  • #96,106
  • Mar 24, 2016 2:55pm Mar 24, 2016 2:55pm
couple days ago I said it will go to 0.741. Well didnt go all the way there, but 0.7475 was still a good number. now we have a morning star on 4h chart. all the shorts are close profit taken . I got some long and ready to go to 0.76( 23% fibo from the last fall on 4h). then we should wait for the US GDP
Good luck
  • #96,107
  • Mar 25, 2016 2:58am Mar 25, 2016 2:58am
Quoting HumbleBee921
"About A$54.8 billion ($42 billion) of Australian-dollar denominated debt owed by governments, foreign institutions and companies is coming due next quarter. Investors will be cash rich at a time when syndicated bond sales in Australia by borrowers other than the federal government have slowed almost 25 percent so far in 2016 from a year earlier." Bloomberg source Will this weaken Aussie dollar?
No, absolutely not. To find out what will weaken up the Aussie, you'll need to go else where. The rally in the Aussie since Feb has really nothing to do with Austrialian fundamentals and alot to do with Central Banks and Global sentiment for risk. The market jumped into "risk-on" mode on comments made by Schuble [Ger.Finance Min.] prior to the G20 Meeting and was then aided by the stablisation in the Chinese Yuan and a rally in oil which lifted commodities. In addition, you had the BoJ which shocked the market with negative interest rate policy and the ECB with more monetary easing measures. Then last week the Fed provided more support to equities and risk assets with their dovish tone, so to get a handel on what's driving the Aussie you need to go outside. As soon as risk comes off the Aussie will weaken up but we'll need new drivers for that too. The Treasury v Bund Spread movement recently suggest that the eurusd should be significantly lower so with any renewed weakness in risk appetite, watch out!
  • #96,108
  • Mar 25, 2016 3:29am Mar 25, 2016 3:29am
Quoting Klemantina
I always knew that USD,AUD,CAD etc. strongly depend on oil value but not that much. Thanks for the graphs Dano12

Aud yet of copper. This currency - raw materials

OIL vs SP500 1h
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  • #96,109
  • Mar 25, 2016 6:02am Mar 25, 2016 6:02am
dear traders, please be careful today as the liquidity is very less and spreads may increase today anytime.... carefully trade.....
  • #96,110
  • Mar 28, 2016 2:53pm Mar 28, 2016 2:53pm
Audusd forecast time
d1
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h4
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have a green week
Man lie, woman lie, numbers don't
  • #96,111
  • Mar 28, 2016 9:24pm Mar 28, 2016 9:24pm
http://now.eloqua.com/es.asp?s=15331...dc75933ab303ae

Sell Aussie Signal emerges
  • #96,112
  • Mar 28, 2016 11:24pm Mar 28, 2016 11:24pm
Quoting lasty
http://now.eloqua.com/es.asp?s=15331...dc75933ab303ae Sell Aussie Signal emerges
I saw some weakness in this pair too.
Seems like AU wants to test 7430 - 7450. Similar support zone to the one on your article.

Will be buying again at above level, i still believe AU will go above 7700 sooner or later.
  • #96,113
  • Mar 29, 2016 12:07am Mar 29, 2016 12:07am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} I saw some weakness in this pair too. Seems like AU wants to test 7430 - 7450. Similar support zone to the one on your article. Will be buying again at above level, i still believe AU will go above 7700 sooner or later.
Fundamentally the Australian economy is woeful.

The government keeps flip flopping on policy and the confidence is shot to pieces despite what Bank surveys say as they secretly lay off staff.

As a foreign investor I would be sitting tight until after the election when ever they decide that because of another indecision.

China isn't going to turn around overnight and Australia has not prepared itself for any alternative
  • #96,114
  • Mar 29, 2016 4:25am Mar 29, 2016 4:25am
Quoting lasty
{quote} Fundamentally the Australian economy is woeful. The government keeps flip flopping on policy and the confidence is shot to pieces despite what Bank surveys say as they secretly lay off staff. As a foreign investor I would be sitting tight until after the election when ever they decide that because of another indecision. China isn't going to turn around overnight and Australia has not prepared itself for any alternative
Agreed.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...29-gnt547.html
  • #96,115
  • Mar 29, 2016 5:15am Mar 29, 2016 5:15am
Hedge Funds were selling US dollars again [from the latest COT Report]. Buying in EUR even though their overall positioning is still short, with an increase in nett longs for YEN & AUD. Maybe a good opportunity to get long before Yellen speaks.
  • #96,116
  • Mar 29, 2016 5:31am Mar 29, 2016 5:31am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} I saw some weakness in this pair too. Seems like AU wants to test 7430 - 7450. Similar support zone to the one on your article. Will be buying again at above level, i still believe AU will go above 7700 sooner or later.
I doubt very much t will make that level.

Fundamentals dont point to it.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,117
  • Mar 29, 2016 6:47am Mar 29, 2016 6:47am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I doubt very much t will make that level. Fundamentals dont point to it.

If you are talking about fundamentals then there is no point talking about support or resistance levels. It can take months or years to drop, go up 1000 pips before dropping 5000 pips. Draw up a weekly chart and you will see the levels are wide apart, you don't talk about fundamentals and then observe levels on the 30 or 60 mins charts for 100/200 pips, it just won't tally.

Lastly never doubt the market, it can surprise you.
  • #96,118
  • Mar 29, 2016 7:55am Mar 29, 2016 7:55am
Fundamentally the Aussie economy is in the gutter, but fundamentals don't drive markets over short and sometimes even medium term horizons.

I have a short term bullish outlook on the AUD based on my charts, I think it is bouncing off 4h support which has been upheld 3 times now. More than happy to change my outlook if the situation changes, but for the moment, I am left to assume it will bounce towards the higher end of the wedge around 0.757.

We are getting very close to the break of the 4h wedge, and it will probably happen towards the beginning of April. At that point things will be more clear.
  • #96,119
  • Mar 29, 2016 9:57am Mar 29, 2016 9:57am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
Fundamentally the Aussie economy is in the gutter, but fundamentals don't drive markets over short and sometimes even medium term horizons. I have a short term bullish outlook on the AUD based on my charts, I think it is bouncing off 4h support which has been upheld 3 times now. More than happy to change my outlook if the situation changes, but for the moment, I am left to assume it will bounce towards the higher end of the wedge around 0.757. We are getting very close to the break of the 4h wedge, and it will probably happen towards the beginning...

Just printed 0.757. Gonna see if it trace from this level to test the 7400 - 7450 range.
  • #96,120
  • Mar 29, 2016 12:11pm Mar 29, 2016 12:11pm
[quote=rendite;8826982]I'll be looking to buy the dip sub 0.755 [preferably around 0.748] for a 0.774 target...

Working out fine...
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