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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #15,501
  • Mar 28, 2016 8:07am Mar 28, 2016 8:07am
thank you,
I really hated that watermark

____

let's wait and see where this goes, will be a nice short opportunity
  • #15,502
  • Edited 9:01am Mar 28, 2016 8:27am | Edited 9:01am
Quoting maflip
Bleh most of you guys are shorts long term but truth is there is a bearish H&S that is struggling to work. If it's to work this pair should have went down a long time ago. As for me, I'm an intraday trader so I don't care where this goes long term I only care about the now. Price is still on the bear side long term but be careful something does not look right. We could be seeing wave 2 down followed by a big wave 3 up. For today I will closely watch the dips and see if It can retrace enough for a buying opportunity intraday. {image}
We have been up all day I won't be surprised if we go 150% over the daily range today. In a couple of days we might even be retesting 164 and if broken to 167 easy.
We will find out.

And the shorts keep adding shorts and the longs says yay!
  • #15,503
  • Mar 28, 2016 8:31am Mar 28, 2016 8:31am
yeah going short was a pretty dumb idea, since USDJPY is sitting @ tripple bottom on daily and GBP USD was near YTD low and also formed a clear double bottom.
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  • #15,504
  • Mar 28, 2016 8:34am Mar 28, 2016 8:34am
wake up call for shorts. GU daily chart.
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  • #15,505
  • Edited 1:42pm Mar 28, 2016 11:22am | Edited 1:42pm
still no position thankfully....If you go out to the weekly its more clear and like asg said its possibly the c leg of abc from the 5 waves down or even wave 3 and 173.6. although i had been struggling with this all week just lazyness on my part to not go further out i guess. every 5 waves needs to correct so if we get equal legs perhaps were looking at 167.8? Who knowsnot gonna hold anything longer that intraday though until its more clear.

What is clear though is that RSI bottomed out and Stochs have turned up on the weekly so?? Strong GBP again?

edit...no idea what gj is up to yet, but short gu so? out at be
  • #15,506
  • Mar 28, 2016 2:47pm Mar 28, 2016 2:47pm
Hello. Can any traders post some fresh data showing how correlated the GBP/JPY & GBP/USD is? I saw some data from 2015 showing about a 94% correlation but wondering if this is still correct. Thank you.
  • #15,507
  • Mar 28, 2016 3:12pm Mar 28, 2016 3:12pm
it's somewhat correlated, currently there is a link on weekly scale, however USDJPY a stronger driver of GBPJPY than GBPUSD for sure.
Best to keep an eye on both.
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  • #15,508
  • Mar 28, 2016 3:14pm Mar 28, 2016 3:14pm
Quoting asgcorp
it's somewhat correlated, currently there is a link on weekly scale, however USDJPY a stronger driver of GBPJPY than GBPUSD for sure. Best to keep an eye on both. {image}
Excellent, thank you for the info. I'll certainly keep my eye on U/J as well. Appreciate the help.
  • #15,509
  • Edited 3:23pm Mar 28, 2016 3:21pm | Edited 3:23pm
Quoting simond2002
Another take on it...
Quick recap.

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Breakout of the bullish wedge that was a result of the market grinding down to test the H4 bullish W is well underway.

Market is currently gnawing at H4 supply. If it breaks out then although I wouldn't just buy a breakout, logical upper targets are the top of the wedge and higher point of inflection between 164.24 and 165'ish. If the market doesn't take out current H4 supply I'd consider selling it depending on the PA.
  • #15,510
  • Mar 28, 2016 3:25pm Mar 28, 2016 3:25pm
GJ will not go to 164-165 before 156. It's current move will be terminated @ or close to 163
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  • #15,511
  • Mar 28, 2016 3:36pm Mar 28, 2016 3:36pm
Quoting maflip
{quote} We have been up all day I won't be surprised if we go 150% over the daily range today. In a couple of days we might even be retesting 164 and if broken to 167 easy. We will find out. And the shorts keep adding shorts and the longs says yay!
My sentiments entirely
  • #15,512
  • Mar 28, 2016 3:43pm Mar 28, 2016 3:43pm
ok hate to dissapoint the bulls party here, but UJ will be pushed into the supply zone on daily and flushed from there violently rejected. GU also will be maxed out @ 4340 (another 100 points to go). So overall we got 100 on GU upside and UJ 100 or so points. GBPJPY will hit 163 +-20 points and from that point expect it to go SOUTH big time.

Would be interesting to see who will take over ultimately.
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  • #15,513
  • Mar 28, 2016 3:54pm Mar 28, 2016 3:54pm
Quoting raiders
still no position thankfully....If you go out to the weekly its more clear and like asg said its possibly the c leg of abc from the 5 waves down or even wave 3 and 173.6. although i had been struggling with this all week just lazyness on my part to not go further out i guess. every 5 waves needs to correct so if we get equal legs perhaps were looking at 167.8? Who knowsnot gonna hold anything longer that intraday though until its more clear. What is clear though is that RSI bottomed out and Stochs have turned up on the weekly so?? Strong...
1 trade so far and out at be. holiday trading....

Anyways....1 chart ive been watching. Who knows what it does from here lots of funky action going on but this chart looking kinda text book
break of rising trend + pullback to lovely fib levels.
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  • #15,514
  • Mar 28, 2016 3:56pm Mar 28, 2016 3:56pm
raiders you got a good point there. A potential sell off in SPX can send USDJPY south and drag the dragon with it sometime this week. I agree with you SPX is top heavy right now.
  • #15,515
  • Edited 4:23pm Mar 28, 2016 4:01pm | Edited 4:23pm
Quoting asgcorp
ok hate to dissapoint the bulls party here
Not to worry, you haven't
  • #15,516
  • Mar 28, 2016 4:03pm Mar 28, 2016 4:03pm
pitchfork resistance on H4 GBP JPY also highlights same area 162.80-163.20. I'd say probability of price reversing there is 80%+
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  • #15,517
  • Mar 28, 2016 4:05pm Mar 28, 2016 4:05pm
These targets can be reached , the 162.85 has been mentioned already I see so don't be surprised.
Long positions above 160.70 with targets @ 161.85 & 162.85 in extension.
  • #15,518
  • Mar 28, 2016 4:10pm Mar 28, 2016 4:10pm
Quoting asgcorp
raiders you got a good point there. A potential sell off in SPX can send USDJPY south and drag the dragon with it sometime this week. I agree with you SPX is top heavy right now.
i had to redo all my charts....hence the color changes lol. anyways, i do that when i lose focus of what the main points are.

Main points to me are S&P will give us direction for JPY pairs. Weve gotten all fucked up because of holiday trading and the lack of liquidity. Thats just my opinion though so who the hell knows until the market tell us. Anyways, GBP is still weak to me. GU needed to correct as did GJ as well as S&P and prob every other JPY pair not gonna lie i havent checked but im gonna assume they all followed suit.

GU should be finishing ii at some point soon maybe it goes a little higher to complete the ABCDE triangle maybe it breaks the top side maybe it just flushes south since its already at a good level to do so. What ever it does we should know soon and that will give clarity to GJ. So, until I know what GU is gonna do im not touching GJ. GU im either gonna sell E with a tight SL if it gets there or sell the break of the lower trendline.

IF GU does this and SPX does what it looks like it wants to do then GJ should be going straight to hell very soon
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  • #15,519
  • Mar 28, 2016 4:26pm Mar 28, 2016 4:26pm
yes I like your thinking. My take is that UJ / GJ / GU will still push higher still, obviously GU up and UJ up meaning that GJ x2 up. But once GU meets resistance @ 4340-60 and SPX starts to reverse and go down, pretty much UJ will follow, therefore dragging GBPJPY with it. Should be all done within next few days.

My take on timing is as follows: Tuesday GBPUSD/GBPJPY still goes up and UJ also. Wednesday we peak out and SPX starts to reverse. That's where GBPJPY starts to crash. I'd say a fair target on GBPJPY short side is at least 157 but could do 155 easily.
  • #15,520
  • Mar 28, 2016 4:35pm Mar 28, 2016 4:35pm
Quoting asgcorp
yes I like your thinking. My take is that UJ / GJ / GU will still push higher still, obviously GU up and UJ up meaning that GJ x2 up. But once GU meets resistance @ 4340-60 and SPX starts to reverse and go down, pretty much UJ will follow, therefore dragging GBPJPY with it. Should be all done within next few days. My take on timing is as follows: Tuesday GBPUSD/GBPJPY still goes up and UJ also. Wednesday we peak out and SPX starts to reverse. That's where GBPJPY starts to crash. I'd say a fair target on GBPJPY short side is at least 157...
Very interesting analysis asgcorp , let's watch closely much appreciated.
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