The Club!

good source for sentiment analysis

https://twitter.com/ndr_research?lang=de


have put it on my Sentiment Twitter List

https://twitter.com/singulorum/lists/sentiment

NDR on Gold:

https://twitter.com/NDR_Research/sta...526080?lang=de

Two bearish short-term indicators on $gold. Excessive optimism & smart money positioning. #NedsInsights

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
New Eye-Opening Documentary Completely Exposes Barbaric Saudi Regime

Deutsche Bank's Dire Warning On Global Trade: "The Currency War Is Futile"

COT Analysis:

EU may soon be set to drop



slightly above 50% bulls



Crude may be set to drop, but as last week, I do not like the fact that the small specs sided with the Commercials



slightly above 70% bulls, dropping since 2 weeks



Gold looks good for dropping soon



around 50% bulls, dropping since a few weeks



DX in a very good position to rise soon -> broad USD strength awaited




Euro Index expected to rise a bit more before dropping -> broad EUR weakness awaited




USDJPY is difficult to analyze, because from a strict COT index point of view the commercials seem to be wrong often. But when consulting the net position they had in the past, it ets clear, that they were most of the time spot on with their strategic positions. So the conclusion may be, that the UJ is in for more drops.

around 75% bulls, holding steadily




Japanese Yen Index points, on the other hand, to more weakness to come for the Yen




This one I found very interesting:

SP500

look at the position of the small specs vs the large specs:

A) the small specs have most of the time larger positions than the large specs

B) the large specs seem to not trust the whole ralley in the SP500 since years because they are keeping their positions relatively small

C) it seldomly goes well when the small specs reach for the extremes. They are about to go full bullish, whereas the commercials decided at the beginnig of the week to reduce their long positions extremely, and extremely fast

slightly above 70%, but dropping a bit since two weeks




All in all we have some mixed signals. Especially the sentiment data are not at optimal extremes to make a good decision.

Concluding all above for the EU, my opinion is, that we may see some more upward or sideway movement first before a further severe drop may set in.

All in all the data slowly aligns to set the EURUSD in a dropping situation



Happy Easter Weekend (or whatever you celebrate or like to celebrate (maybe yourself)) to you all

worth the time to read:

Was This The Worst Economist Forecast Of All Time

GOLD

- Weekly :
We can see gold already re-entered major consolidation area with strong support around 1160 - 1190 area, break below this area is really bearish.

- Daily :
It seem about to leave supply area but it might go up a bit to form bearish triangle with 1200 - 1220 area as a support.
If gold still bullish and ready to rally break above 1300 it should do important test above 1180 which not yet occur ... so let's see maybe we can get this in coming weeks (or months ?).

Unlikely partners? How Western media largely ignored State Dept-Google-Al Jazeera plot against Assad


very interesting stuff

very interesting tweet

https://twitter.com/FJGdePoel

D.P.

they do look very similar, but my information is, that the man on the picture is Anas Mondamani, who is hosted at a Christian family in Berlin, and fears for his life now.

I hope it looks like you are saying (hopefully... for Merkel).
However external similarity might play more harm than good (for the guy).

Best
D.P.

Japan's Finance Minister Accidentally Reveals How It All Ends: "War"
Submitted by http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...160326_war.jpg

While this all started with a currency "war," it seems - according to a stunningly candid transcript of Japan's finance minister's conversation with none other than Paul Krugman - that the real endgame here is actual war. Aso remarked that "a similar [deflationary mindset] had occurred in the US in the 1930s. What solved the question? War! Because World War II had occurred during the 1940s and that became the solution for the United States. [We] have to switch [the Japanese] mindset... we are looking for the trigger."

it is an outcome became classical.
Have you provided yourself with popcorn?

Best,
D.P.

EDITED a little bit late. I still hardly believe what the hot war is possible.

The Real Likelihood of a Nuclear War — Paul Craig Roberts
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016...craig-roberts/

Is the Latest ISIS Attack Another False Flag? Paul Craig Roberts
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016...craig-roberts/

Best
D.P.

are facts that only years can clarify...

i meant this,

Markus, of you like you can give MASTER CLASS FOR THOSE WHO ARE INTERESTED IN
the subject is at the page of http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post8837542

Best
D.P.

pity for them: I am a retired teacher now

but they can search for Infinitus and Murrey Math in FF and find nearly everything

EU:

After re-assess with current situation I still aiming toward 1.20+ or at least 1.17, however atm. there are 2 alternative (red & orange) for timing and springboard area.

I think if up-side target only reach 1.17, we might end up with Double-Bottom & Double-Top and this large and long-lasting consolidation area could extended in time maybe for years because it designed that way..

Daily chart:

I just wanted to follow-up on this trade as it worked out nicely after coming back from the Holiday weekend for a nice 50 pip profit.