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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #20,841
  • Feb 5, 2016 2:24pm Feb 5, 2016 2:24pm
[quote=Dr.Phoenix;8734886]{quote} All the gaps are working for them to be closed sonner or later. I have found that the gaps (real or hidden) happened intraday (1H, 4H or even lower TFs) are being closed within 48 hours. Those of them that have happened with a sharp impulse are about to be kept for a long time period, say, weeks or months. However, they will be worked out later.

I disagree a little bit. The most important question is that sometimes this gaps are not closed. Sometimes they belong to a big trend, so they are not closed. Imagine that we have gaps uncovered from 1.35. And the gap we are talking now belong to October. It's eassier to see the gaps covered if we are in a range or the trend is not very strong.
For example, now we have a hidden gap from NFP candle at 1.1198. But we do not know yet if this candle means a change in the trend ( so it won't be closed in a long time) or is not and it will fullfilled sooner.

Best Regards
  • #20,842
  • Feb 6, 2016 1:41am Feb 6, 2016 1:41am
woah.......

that is huge - I would certainly move when I would be living there

"Fukushima Class Disaster" - L.A. Gas Leak Spewing Lethal Levels Of Breathable Nuclear Material
  • #20,843
  • Feb 6, 2016 4:27am Feb 6, 2016 4:27am
Quoting Lavanda
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} All the gaps are working for them to be closed sonner or later. I have found that the gaps (real or hidden) happened intraday (1H, 4H or even lower TFs) are being closed within 48 hours. Those of them that have happened with a sharp impulse are about to be kept for a long time period, say, weeks or months. However, they will be worked out later. I disagree a little bit. The most important question is that sometimes this gaps are not closed. Sometimes they belong to a big trend, so they are not closed.
...

Of course, you are right.

That is the question of probability.
Some of them will not be closed ever.
Such gaps are out of 2 sigma ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%...80%9399.7_rule )

Those gaps I am talking about are in the range of 2 sigma - that is enough for trading, I suppose.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #20,844
  • Feb 6, 2016 6:54am Feb 6, 2016 6:54am
Pentagon releases Bush-era torture pictures after 12-year-long legal battle


Obama: ".......we tortured some FOLKS"
  • #20,845
  • Feb 6, 2016 7:20am Feb 6, 2016 7:20am
I think this is the only idea to keep the intermediate/short term bearish scenario on Gold

http://trading.dalietos.com/2016/01/goldxauusd.html



I looked for hours on my chart to find explanation for the last impulse down, and the above shown count so far seems to be the only meaningful solution
  • #20,846
  • Feb 6, 2016 7:26am Feb 6, 2016 7:26am
Quoting infinitus
I think this is the only idea to keep the intermediate/short term bearish scenario on Gold http://trading.dalietos.com/2016/01/goldxauusd.html I looked for hours on my chart to find explanation for the last impulse down, and the above shown count so far seems to be the only meaningful solution

Gold 70% bulls

Nasdaq 7%
SP500 10%

Crude 25%
EU 55%
  • #20,847
  • Feb 6, 2016 8:25am Feb 6, 2016 8:25am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Great explanation... thanks my friend. I did in depth analysis to asses current situation and eventually came up to conclusion that high probability this time EU will cross 1.15 not to back down again... will looking for confirmation within 1.13 - 1.15 area. ADDED: This is medium to long-term view.
maybe this
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  • #20,848
  • Feb 6, 2016 8:32am Feb 6, 2016 8:32am
Quoting infinitus
I think this is the only idea to keep the intermediate/short term bearish scenario on Gold http://trading.dalietos.com/2016/01/goldxauusd.html I looked for hours on my chart to find explanation for the last impulse down, and the above shown count so far seems to be the only meaningful solution
Quite a large surge there on Friday heh, so much about sell gold on Fridays and buy stocks thingy...Structurally for me we are in rotation structure, with possible bottom to be set up. Same for XAUEUR.
  • #20,849
  • Feb 6, 2016 8:33am Feb 6, 2016 8:33am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} maybe this {image}
So you are saying that my USD converted bank account is gona take a beating
  • #20,850
  • Feb 6, 2016 8:42am Feb 6, 2016 8:42am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} So you are saying that my USD converted bank account is gona take a beating
Well, there was massive selling on usd above 97.00

remember this:
Quoting andexQ
{quote} USD already Topped and level 100 already locked ... imo
  • #20,851
  • Feb 6, 2016 9:57am Feb 6, 2016 9:57am
Iran wants to dump dollar in crude trade – report

snippet:

"In our invoices we mention a clause that buyers of our oil will have to pay in euros, considering the exchange rate versus the dollar around the time of delivery," the source said.

Tehran also wants to receive billions of dollars worth of assets frozen under the sanctions in euros, said another source. Iran has an estimated $100 billion in assets and around half of these would be unfrozen under the upcoming sanctions relief.
Iranian disdain for the American currency is nothing new. In 2007, it unsuccessfully campaigned at OPEC to switch from the dollar. The role it plays in the oil trade is one of the key reasons the dollar enjoys the status of the world’s leading reserve currency.
  • #20,852
  • Feb 6, 2016 10:03am Feb 6, 2016 10:03am
‘Aggressors to return home in coffins’: Syrian FM warns against foreign ground op

snippet:

A leaked UN report blamed at least 119 Saudi-led military missions in Yemen for violations of international law.




Strangely enough, we can only read about the Russians targeting civilians in their air-strikes in Syria in the main stream media.

Can hardly notice any mentioning of the Arabs or the US bombing/droning civilian targets, hospital and doctors without boarders
  • #20,853
  • Feb 6, 2016 10:09am Feb 6, 2016 10:09am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} maybe this {image}

after 1.1567 huge no business area

either the zone gets filled, or rejection latest in the 1.1567 area
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  • #20,854
  • Feb 6, 2016 11:19am Feb 6, 2016 11:19am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote}{quote} Of course, you are right. That is the question of probability. Some of them will not be closed ever. Such gaps are out of 2 sigma ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%...80%9399.7_rule ) Those gaps I am talking about are in the range of 2 sigma - that is enough for trading, I suppose. Best D.P.
And how can you know wich gaps are in the range of 2 sigma???
  • #20,855
  • Edited 3:23pm Feb 6, 2016 1:36pm | Edited 3:23pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} And how can you know which gaps are in the range of 2 sigma???
Intuitively...
Joke..

Of course, neither me nor enybody can know how much time is needed for us to be sure of closing exactly those gaps that are expected to be closed.
That is why we should do analyse charts by different methods and use stop losses.
That is why I am saying "sooner or later" or "never ever" for a little part of the rest gaps.

Best
D.P.

P.S. Look at the good example shown by Markus - two posts UPwards - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post8736899
What is no-busines zone? It is the zone where people had not been trading or were trading a little. Why? Because supply and demand had not met each other with sufficient volumes. That is why it is like a gap. However neither Markus nor me does not know if this gap is closed (filled) this time or is about to be rejected. But I am sure it will be closed (filled) either, in a month or two, maybe, for example.
Hunting High and Low
  • #20,856
  • Feb 6, 2016 2:02pm Feb 6, 2016 2:02pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Quite a large surge there on Friday heh, so much about sell gold on Fridays and buy stocks thingy...Structurally for me we are in rotation structure, with possible bottom to be set up. Same for XAUEUR.

Although the count of Dalietos solves the "problem" (later more about the problem), I do not feel comfortable with this solution. There is simply no long term short entry possible which is in the low risk category.

Especially for me, with my base currency Euro and sFr, the situation is very tricky now

Regarding the problems:

on the chart you can see 4 marked impulses



what to make out of it????



from the 1388.51 top in March we can count:

A) w-x-y-x-z; the last impulse down is the wave C of Z, which unfolded as flat

that would make the case fairly bullish now


B) ending diagonal: 1-2-3-and now in the wave C of a flat for wave 4 (may terminate between 1190 and 1242
  • #20,857
  • Feb 6, 2016 2:06pm Feb 6, 2016 2:06pm
Quoting infinitus
Iran wants to dump dollar in crude trade report snippet: "In our invoices we mention a clause that buyers of our oil will have to pay in euros, considering the exchange rate versus the dollar around the time of delivery," the source said. Tehran also wants to receive billions of dollars worth of assets frozen under the sanctions in euros, said another source. Iran has an estimated $100 billion in assets and around half of these would be unfrozen under the upcoming sanctions relief....
Remember who did that in 2000 and what happened to him and his country. But then again, war on Iran is already happening, its just being fought in Syria, becouse without Syria Iran cannot exit petrodollar in full stance.
  • #20,858
  • Feb 6, 2016 2:10pm Feb 6, 2016 2:10pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Intuitively... Joke.. Of course, neither me nor enybody can know how much time is needed for us to be sure of closing exactly those gaps that are expected to be closed. That is why we should do analyse charts by different methods and use stop losses. That is why I am saying "sooner or later" or "never ever" for a little part of the rest gaps. Best D.P. P.S. Look at the good example shown by Markus - two posts UPwards - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post8736899 What is no-busines zone? It is the zone...



technical analysis/ fundamental analysis is most convincing when the author makes straight face

either up or down.....

Reminds me on EWI the last weeks, when they bragged about the supposed to be triangle in EU

They told the people, that they would have counts for both a bullish and bearish triangle - they sounded very "knowing", but were unable to tell, what the higher probability move was

Retail trader positioning (heavily short) and the impertinent advertising of parity by some banks hinted to the upper-side
  • #20,859
  • Feb 6, 2016 4:02pm Feb 6, 2016 4:02pm
3 false claims MSM is making about the Assange case

  • #20,860
  • Edited 5:42pm Feb 6, 2016 5:10pm | Edited 5:42pm
Quoting andexQ
{quote} maybe this {image}
near my chart.. price breakout 1.0940 ...mabe minimum target is fibo 0.618 ext 1.138x?

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