Does it make sense to think of price movement in this way?

Markets move from balanced orders to when orders get unbalanced

In a sense particle physics has many similarities to price behaviour. For example, for a particle to 'exist' or at least be classically defined, we need an interaction to occur, just as for price to 'exist' we need an interaction to exist between a buyer and a seller. Without the interaction, we just have quantum potential or in terms of markets, price potential that can only be assigned a probabilistic value.

Price, like a particle has no separate existence or substantive objective properties of their own. It's properties are locally defined by relationships between the transacting agents and is simply a representation or trace of the transaction that occurs between an exceedingly small sample of the entire population of market participants.

The only time a participant interacts with the market is during the trade entry and trade exit. The success of a trade is dependent on the trajectory price takes between these transactional points and is determined by the transactional events that take place by other system participants. In a similar way, the trajectory of a gas particle in a cloud is dependent on the particle interactions that take place within the cloud system.

In no way, shape or form, does price at any discreet point in time represent the collective views of the entire population. It is only the price record over an extended timeframe that provides a general indication of overall price consensus of it's participants by virtue of the fact that the number of events that record price over an extended time series represent the transactional behaviour of a large sample of market participants that is more statistically representative of the population.

Unlike a random coin flip which can be neatly mathematically defined by a single event, the probability of a winning or losing trade defined by a move from point A to Point B is contained within a variable discreet series of uncertain events outside the direct control of any single participant that play out over time between the time of trade entry and trade exit. A single participant only interacts with the market at entry and exit and has no control over price movement during the interim uncertain period. The outcome is therefore a combination of that which is known by the participant (the reasons for trade entry and trade exit) and that which is unknown (being the reasons for the balance of participant transactional behaviour that transpires between entry and exit).

Without a crystal ball or being able to predict all participant behaviour, it is impossible to gauge with certainty the direction price will take in the future as it is contingent on understanding exactly when and to what degree the balance of participants will interact with the market over the course of time between trade entry and exit.

There are two options here. You can either predict or guess the direction that price will take within an exceedingly complex system and be either right or wrong in your judgement, or alternatively you could just ride price movement within certain risk management confines and leave your fate in the hands of the market. The latter is my preferred stance given my respect for the markets complexity.

If I were going to make an analogy for the market, I'd use a see-saw.

- One side is buy, one side is sell.
- Market participants are the people riding it; you have big ones, small ones, smart ones, dumb ones, professionals and novices.
- They move from side to side as they see fit, creating the swings and imbalances between buyers and sellers that move the market.
- Sometimes you have everyone on one side, so price goes up. Othertimes everyone is on the other side, price goes down. Sometimes people are moving quickly between sides, so price goes up and down. etc

Hope that helps.

Deep thoughts going on here just dont over do it, you can go crazy lol
just joking, been there to.

on point 1

I don't completely agree with your theory, that the car would continue to go if there is no opposing force stopping it,
sometimes this do happen, but what also happens is that the car run out of gas so to speak,
for example, price is closing in on a past resistance level, this causes fear of a reversal,
this can cause the momentum to fade because people will not buy as much in this situation,
especially if this was a strong level in the past price had big trouble braking.
the buying will not be as strong as it would if this fear wasn't there,
the stronger the level was, the more people will have this fear

note: there is no opposing force in play here yet.

on point 2,

I agree here, it is right that strong momentum usually keeps going and it don't stop just like that,
probably just because there is a lot! of people buying and they all can't stop buying imediately.
so the trend will keep going a bit longer before they all have settled down,
also some traders have different criteria for when a trend is at the end and they are about to exit,
thats where bearish divergence comes from. that is when they start to stop buying,
and usually it take some time before they all stopped and price collapse.

In this case the interaction would be between the supply and demand of gas .

Those who count are the big ones .

Those that count are the big ones, and understanding how they do what they do is key.

It certainly helps to understand the big moves, otherwise you're just guessing the when.

If I understand well, you're referring to FA. Well I don't think FA can be applied to Forex trading.

While in the stock market you want to look at the news, Forex IS the news.

FA doesn't apply to Forex? So ... interest rate policy doesn't apply to forex?

Sorry for delay in the reply. FA may have some value for long term trading, I say "may" because honestly, I don't know.
But for intraday / swing traders like myself .... def not. Only thing I care about is if the currency I'm trading is being pegged.

I'm right struck by a cool comparison. It may be added that those who fall from a swing - traders who want to fly too high, but the swing change direction and had already to guess the moment when you need to take off again