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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #18,381
  • Mar 20, 2016 4:38pm Mar 20, 2016 4:38pm
Quoting jmezz
Mr Pip / rest of thread - I'm reviewing last week's trades and am looking to get some feedback as I have a few questions regarding my sell trade @ 17478. - Price made a very small NSH and then reversed to break 2 swing lows - LH1 and LH2 (cyan trendlines). - Price made harmonic pullback into 61.8 / structure zone (white trendlines, copies of leg 3). - I entered short under expectation of a NSL seeing as we broke through 2 prior LH's. - Trade got stopped out for small gain. Was I correct in my expectation that orderflow had turned bearish? If so,...
Hey jmezz,

Funny I took the exact same trade, only difference was I left it too long, missed the move into profit by +10 (should have moved to BE at that point). That meant I took a loss of 20

When I reviewed the main point I took from it was the perceived correction showed an increase in momentum, albeit slight. That should have been enough indication to manage tightly and move to BE asap, which I did not.

Nothing wrong with your trade IMO, can't win them all.
  • #18,382
  • Edited 6:41pm Mar 20, 2016 6:08pm | Edited 6:41pm
Quoting Timwelch
Here's my trade week review (looking back in time, going bar-by-bar for practice, trying to hone the skills Mr. Pip has been teaching) for Monday and Tuesday. I liked Tuesday's video better. Both days ended up with profit and expectations were being hit pretty good. https://youtu.be/TuQmXQWqP_0 (monday) https://youtu.be/OC_bI4iQ7zQ (tuesday)
Hi Mr Pi... eeee Timwelch i mean!!
Very nice videos!
I have a question,
First video (about 2.20)you have
big retracement
small projection
so expectation is for a deep pull back..Why did you take your first trade at 0.382 retracement??
learn more , earn more
  • #18,383
  • Mar 20, 2016 6:32pm Mar 20, 2016 6:32pm
Quoting jmezz
Mr Pip / rest of thread - I'm reviewing last week's trades and am looking to get some feedback as I have a few questions regarding my sell trade @ 17478. - Price made a very small NSH and then reversed to break 2 swing lows - LH1 and LH2 (cyan trendlines). - Price made harmonic pullback into 61.8 / structure zone (white trendlines, copies of leg 3). - I entered short under expectation of a NSL seeing as we broke through 2 prior LH's. - Trade got stopped out for small gain. Was I correct in my expectation that orderflow had turned bearish? If so,...
I'll give you the short answer a more in depth one is provided but you traded right into structure. Always expect structure to hold unless it is attacked with lots of strength. But like mention there were lots of obstacles for price. Make sure you don,t lose situational awareness on a count of getting into a trade
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #18,384
  • Mar 20, 2016 6:38pm Mar 20, 2016 6:38pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} "Also as an FYI at the tops of the hr volatility increases a bit as the 1 hr candles are looking to close and also at the closing hr of the 4 H candle. " Just looking to clarify. do you mean every hour candles increase in volatility at the end due to the close of the 1 hour and 4 hour or is the 4 hour based only effects the 0400, 0800, 1200, etc... based on EST or London time. Not that it matters, I'll just use every hour as a default to keep it easy. Looking forward to the video. Trade management is a clear weakness of mine.
Pat or near the closes of these higher time frame candles far more decisions are being made they also correlate with fundamental releases as well. It may not be to obvious enough on those respective time frames the 1H or the 4H but if you are on a 161 T or the 1M it could seem quite large at times. Don,t read more into it then that it really is insignificant the majority or the time. I personally don,t take this into account I any way but it does happen.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #18,385
  • Mar 20, 2016 6:40pm Mar 20, 2016 6:40pm
Quoting crixus
{quote} I understand your bearish bias at the time of your entry but there were some obstacles in the path of your trade. First, the area of support as shown by the horizontal lines as well as the ascending trend line and next the opening range. In theory, if price respect the previous day high, it is bullish and if price stays above the first minute opening range, it is bullish. On the very short timeframe price was weak at the time of your entry but all timeframes above were bullish. Your read was valid but too many obstacles in your way. However,...
Very nice awareness!
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #18,386
  • Mar 20, 2016 7:11pm Mar 20, 2016 7:11pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Hello Tim. Great videos. good insight in areas
Thanks, Mack2013! I'm learning every day, or I hope so at least. ;-)

Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Questions 1) in the first video (around 4:30, first trade) . You were talking about the first at the US open that price tends to fake out. was that for the duration of the US / London overlap or just the first hour? and do you have any stats on how often this happens?
Good question. I don't have any statistics, but I saw it pretty much every day last week. As Mr. Pip pointed out, it's likely just the top of 1H or in this case the 4H having more volatility and I'm on a 162 tick chart.

Quoting Mack2013
{quote} 2) Second video (5:30) Nice move, not taking the incentive candle. Honestly, I think I would of. There is an old poker saying, " If you sit down at the table and in 5 minute you don't know who the mark is then your the mark." I guess the losing trader was me. Nice thought process and hold for longer term expectations. well, got to go to work, I'll finish off the second tomorrow. Nice trading.
Notice though again, that incentive candle you're talking about was around 7:53am. Price did a little fakeout down and then came back up immediately. I don't know if it's only visible on the 162 tick, but it's there.
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - JMK
  • #18,387
  • Mar 20, 2016 7:14pm Mar 20, 2016 7:14pm
Quoting GnG
{quote} Hi Mr Pi... eeee Timwelch i mean!! Very nice videos! I have a question, First video (about 2.20)you have big retracement small projection so expectation is for a deep pull back..Why did you take your first trade at 0.382 retracement??
Thanks, GnG! I only took it because of the rejection off of the 0.382 retracement area. It wicked nicely up past it, and then the next candle was a clear indication to me that price wasn't going any higher (in the short term), so I was taking an aggressive trade down in hopes that I could reach a break even quick enough to limit my losses had I been wrong.
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - JMK
  • #18,388
  • Mar 20, 2016 11:15pm Mar 20, 2016 11:15pm
Mr.Pip ,
im learning Harmonics im new. Is this Gartley Correct or Wrong ? Please tell.. i want to know PRZ Zone which i marked is correct or wrong i.e from 78.6 Fib of XA and AB=CD Completion(blue trend line) of AB Swing to 127 extension of BC Swing
Thanks in advance
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  • #18,389
  • Mar 21, 2016 3:55am Mar 21, 2016 3:55am
Hi Naidu,

I am not Mr Pip, so I hope you do not mind me commenting.

I believe this is a Gartley pattern in play by Scott Carney's rules, but we'll obviously not know for sure until the D-leg is complete. However, I am pretty sure this thread has not hit on patterns yet, and if I am correct, this Gartley pattern is not considered valid by Damian's rules of engagement (he posted this a while back before beginning hist structured teachings). Putting all of this aside, I would really urge you to visit page 1 and click on the link that has been provided and follow from there as there's a lot of information you're missing out on if you dont.

Just my humble opinion
  • #18,390
  • Mar 21, 2016 5:53am Mar 21, 2016 5:53am
Quoting crixus
{quote} I use both platforms Ninjatrader and MT4 and yes there is a way to display tick chart interval on MT4. I bought this package collection a while ago and it works perfectly: There is a free trial if you want to test them. http://ovo.cz/products/offline-charts-for-mt4/omnia-charts-collection/ {image}
Thanks for this - I might go for the tick chart package as I actually prefer the simplicity of MT4 after playing around with NT.
  • #18,391
  • Mar 21, 2016 6:21am Mar 21, 2016 6:21am
I've been working on some updates to the FixedRatio spreadsheet I posted the other day. It's awesome to show you at a glance at what trade level you are and such, but I decided to add another sheet to make it a little more like Mr. Pips spreadsheet. I like the idea of a daily (or weekly) view. So, The first sheet calculates projected balance over time assuming no losses and such. It basically gives you the Levels. The 2nd sheet copies over the top values (mostly for aesthetics), and then works like Mr. Pips, allowing you to enter in your daily Profit / Loss. It will auto fill in the rest of the line as you go. And it will show you at which Level your next day trade should be, with a little chart plotting how you are doing. You can use it as daily or a weekly or monthly. I like it as daily. I want to add names for the levels, like codenames to make it more fun. :-) So you're working not for a number, but for a cool name. Just something to cut the boredom down really. lol

Google Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-2A9mNBiJxFHjLvTY2chXI3he1B55-MkEDHDbxBmb3I/edit?usp=sharing
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Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - JMK
  • #18,392
  • Mar 21, 2016 6:57am Mar 21, 2016 6:57am
Quoting Timwelch
{quote} Thanks, GnG! I only took it because of the rejection off of the 0.382 retracement area. It wicked nicely up past it, and then the next candle was a clear indication to me that price wasn't going any higher (in the short term), so I was taking an aggressive trade down in hopes that I could reach a break even quick enough to limit my losses had I been wrong.
ok!i get your point

just another question ,in case you want to share, that will help me develop my trading plan /style.
Your real trading is like the one in your videos?or you have a trading plan that you are trying to follow mechanically your rules?for example: if the price hits the 0.618 only then i enter or .. don't know ..something very precise . .Because in the videos i saw that you are a little ''loose'' with your rules.
thanx anyway!
learn more , earn more
  • #18,393
  • Mar 21, 2016 7:08am Mar 21, 2016 7:08am
Great question! I'm still feeling out my trading style, to be honest. I only came across Mr. Pip in January. I would like to get myself to a position where I am more mechanical about my process. But, right now, as you see in the video I'm not quite there yet. I've been trying to take screenshots every day and keep a log / journal of my live trades. This should help me over time to filter out those specifics. I just need more data before I lock it down. :-)

Quoting GnG
{quote} ok!i get your point just another question ,in case you want to share, that will help me develop my trading plan /style. Your real trading is like the one in your videos?or you have a trading plan that you are trying to follow mechanically your rules?for example: if the price hits the 0.618 only then i enter or .. don't know ..something very precise . .Because in the videos i saw that you are a little ''loose'' with your rules. thanx anyway!
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - JMK
  • #18,394
  • Mar 21, 2016 7:22am Mar 21, 2016 7:22am
Quoting Timwelch
I've been working on some updates to the FixedRatio spreadsheet I posted the other day. It's awesome to show you at a glance at what trade level you are and such, but I decided to add another sheet to make it a little more like Mr. Pips spreadsheet. I like the idea of a daily (or weekly) view. So, The first sheet calculates projected balance over time assuming no losses and such. It basically gives you the Levels. The 2nd sheet copies over the top values (mostly for aesthetics), and then works like Mr. Pips, allowing you to enter in your daily Profit...
Good work Tim Thanks
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #18,395
  • Mar 21, 2016 7:25am Mar 21, 2016 7:25am
Tim I just sent you the FX spreadsheet through skype take a look and see if you can work with it.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #18,396
  • Mar 21, 2016 7:28am Mar 21, 2016 7:28am
Quoting Timwelch
Great question! I'm still feeling out my trading style, to be honest. I only came across Mr. Pip in January. I would like to get myself to a position where I am more mechanical about my process. But, right now, as you see in the video I'm not quite there yet. I've been trying to take screenshots every day and keep a log / journal of my live trades. This should help me over time to filter out those specifics. I just need more data before I lock it down. :-) {quote}
Record your live trading session and your thoughts like you do in your video. You will be surprised how much you learn on play back about yourself.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #18,397
  • Edited 7:55am Mar 21, 2016 7:42am | Edited 7:55am
Quoting crixus
{quote} I understand your bearish bias at the time of your entry but there were some obstacles in the path of your trade. First, the area of support as shown by the horizontal lines as well as the ascending trend line and next the opening range. In theory, if price respect the previous day high, it is bullish and if price stays above the first minute opening range, it is bullish. On the very short timeframe price was weak at the time of your entry but all timeframes above were bullish. Your read was valid but too many obstacles in your way. However,...
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} I'll give you the short answer a more in depth one is provided but you traded right into structure. Always expect structure to hold unless it is attacked with lots of strength. But like mention there were lots of obstacles for price. Make sure you don,t lose situational awareness on a count of getting into a trade
Thank you for the feedback guys. I remember hearing Mr. Pip state that he doesn't use diagonal trendlines, so I've been trying to do the same by just focusing on NSH/NSL, depth, and projection. Maybe I shouldn't give those diagonal trendlines up just yet haha.

However you both bring up a very good point which is that I am definitely overlooking immediate structure. The only problem that I'm seeing when I'm going back in my trade history is that there is immediate structure basically everywhere. However I will make it a point to focus on trade entries that will allow me enough room to remove some or all risk.

crixus - Your continued input on my trades is very much appreciated my friend. Likewise Mr. Pip!

Quoting PipTrendz
{quote} Hey jmezz, Funny I took the exact same trade, only difference was I left it too long, missed the move into profit by +10 (should have moved to BE at that point). That meant I took a loss of 20 When I reviewed the main point I took from it was the perceived correction showed an increase in momentum, albeit slight. That should have been enough indication to manage tightly and move to BE asap, which I did not. Nothing wrong with your trade IMO, can't win them all.
It puts me at ease to know that someone else saw the same thing I did, lol.

The momentum point you bring up is a great one and one that I also noticed at the time but decided wasn't a big deal.

Even looking back now, clearly the YM was trending up. It appears I lost sight of the trend. The big picture was that it was a 61.8 pullback in an uptrend, so really I should have been looking for the long at 17444ish. I'm still getting tripped up between short/long term orderflows.
  • #18,398
  • Mar 21, 2016 7:46am Mar 21, 2016 7:46am
Quoting jmezz
{quote} {quote} Thank you for the feedback guys. I remember hearing Mr. Pip state that he doesn't use diagonal trendlines, so I've been trying to do the same by just focusing on NSH/NSL, depth, and projection. Maybe I shouldn't give those diagonal trendlines up just yet haha. However you both bring up a very good point which is that I am definitely overlooking immediate structure. The only problem that I'm seeing when I'm going back in my trade history is that there is immediate structure basically everywhere. However I will make it a point to focus...
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #18,399
  • Mar 21, 2016 7:48am Mar 21, 2016 7:48am
Quoting Timwelch
Here's my trade week review (looking back in time, going bar-by-bar for practice, trying to hone the skills Mr. Pip has been teaching) for Monday and Tuesday. I liked Tuesday's video better. Both days ended up with profit and expectations were being hit pretty good. https://youtu.be/TuQmXQWqP_0 (monday) https://youtu.be/OC_bI4iQ7zQ (tuesday)
Tim what software are you using to create your videos?

I think it would be easier for me and perhaps better for the rest of the thread to create short videos of my questions rather than long posts.
  • #18,400
  • Mar 21, 2016 8:58am Mar 21, 2016 8:58am
I use my macbook to remote connect to my trading servers. So I'm just using QuickTime to record it. If you're straight on windows, I'm not sure what the best solution would be.

Quoting jmezz
{quote} Tim what software are you using to create your videos? I think it would be easier for me and perhaps better for the rest of the thread to create short videos of my questions rather than long posts.
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - JMK
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