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HAC & RAC - A Simple-Minded Approach

  • #361
  • Mar 18, 2016 12:25pm Mar 18, 2016 12:25pm
Quoting T4xr
{quote} Almuten How do you dynamically adjust the cycle of 24 hours. can you give hourly breakup. I remember on Mql4.com forum somebody had asked to measure speed of tick flow per second. But what is your method. kind regards.
Hi T4xr,

I don't adjust anything from a 24 hour cycle. I think I might have some notes on various experiments I did on this but will have to dig them out The cycle I'm using is one derived from Ehler's formula for finding the cycle period, which is purely statistical rather than synodic.
  • #362
  • Mar 18, 2016 2:21pm Mar 18, 2016 2:21pm
Quoting Almuten
{quote} Hi T4xr, I don't adjust anything from a 24 hour cycle. I think I might have some notes on various experiments I did on this but will have to dig them out The cycle I'm using is one derived from Ehler's formula for finding the cycle period, which is purely statistical rather than synodic.
Almuten

can you link me to Ehler's formula, or give me .mq4 source that does cycle period. It seems important how it gets its output numbers at different times. off course it has to do with pinpointing the moment of big money activity that surprises all retailers. Depending solely on Benford all the time will not be so wise also unless we can extract some indication from market data itself. BTW in Benford you are counting frequency of digits [1's and 4's] in price data of a week or month, right? To me it sounds like asking a fortune teller what is next.

regards
  • #363
  • Mar 18, 2016 2:48pm Mar 18, 2016 2:48pm
Quoting T4xr
{quote} Almuten can you link me to Ehler's formula, or give me .mq4 source that does cycle period. It seems important how it gets its output numbers at different times. off course it has to do with pinpointing the moment of big money activity that surprises all retailers. Depending solely on Benford all the time will not be so wise also unless we can extract some indication from market data itself. BTW in Benford you are counting frequency of digits [1's and 4's] in price data of a week or month, right? To me it sounds like asking a fortune teller...
Hey T4xr,

If you want to see the formula for the cycle period, you can open it up in the indicator itself. It's in the list of indys in your MT4 under "CyclePeriod." I didn't write it, btw. It's also in Ehler's books.

As to the "Benford" being the preserve of 'fortune tellers,' I'm VERY happy to hear you say that! It's always been my thinking that a mathematically-gifted person (especially the quants that work for these large firms) would never suspect that we can peek under their skirts.

But also note that I'm not advocating being 100% reliant upon the phenomenon. I'm merely saying that it gives more credence to an already established bias...and maybe some advanced warning to boot.

As to the counting of numbers, I'm using a sample size of only 60 periods on an M1 chart. 48 periods on M5 also works but not as frequently. This stuff does show up on occasion on a monthly or weekly chart but to my mind, it can't be the result of a long term trading program. In cases like that, it's probably something else - a disruption of normal activity, but not due to a single trading program. For instance, some currencies that have been consolidating for a year or two will have a huge, sustained change in the Benford just prior to breaking out for a massive move. This isn't always the case, but it does happen.
  • #364
  • Mar 18, 2016 3:34pm Mar 18, 2016 3:34pm
Early Benford Tests

For the skeptical I want to show you a chart of some analysis I did on the leading digit of Volume (red) vs. Range (blue). As you can see, they make very similar patterns - particularly evident are the spikes, which show very abrupt deviations from "natural." Now one has to ask "WHY would there be such correlation in numbers that really have nothing to do with each other?"
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  • #365
  • Mar 20, 2016 8:45am Mar 20, 2016 8:45am
I made a little nicer template for watching M1 charts if anybody wants to use this one instead. But low-power computer users beware! There are several more instances of the Benford on it...and you know what that means.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl M1 Watcher.tpl   5 KB | 376 downloads
  • #366
  • Mar 20, 2016 11:12am Mar 20, 2016 11:12am
Quoting Almuten
I made a little nicer template for watching M1 charts if anybody wants to use this one instead. But low-power computer users beware! There are several more instances of the Benford on it...and you know what that means. {file}
Installation has this form.?
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #367
  • Mar 20, 2016 11:37am Mar 20, 2016 11:37am
Hi Almuten and group!

vvFish I got this:
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  • #368
  • Mar 20, 2016 1:37pm Mar 20, 2016 1:37pm
Quoting vvFish
{quote} Installation has this form.? {image}
VVFish, you need to add the Benford Analysis indicator in post 258, page 13.

Moonie.
  • #369
  • Mar 21, 2016 2:22am Mar 21, 2016 2:22am
Quoting Almuten
I made a little nicer template for watching M1 charts if anybody wants to use this one instead. But low-power computer users beware! There are several more instances of the Benford on it...and you know what that means. {file}
Hi, Almuten! I've tried your new template, but I can't see anything on it. Red crosses white, or blue crosses red, but I don't see anything behind of all those crossings. Should I buy, or should I sell? Those crossings don't clear this moment TO ME. May be it should be aplied to higher TFs? I don't know, but that's not mine in the present way.
Btw, that is another method and I don't understand - why it's here?
  • #370
  • Mar 21, 2016 11:35am Mar 21, 2016 11:35am
Almuten,

I'm just watching UJ, thinking it might be going short. The RSI has shot up while the RAC is buried below 20 on the H1.

Please can you give your opinion.

Many thanks

Moonie.
  • #371
  • Mar 21, 2016 12:08pm Mar 21, 2016 12:08pm
New Template...and why it's here

I think I'll likely lose some subscribers from saying this, but the reason I made a new template with more Benford indys on it is because that 'guidance' I keep telling you guys about said this to me on Friday: "5 and 9 are the numbers we are working with now..." It was unmistakable and as clear as a bell. That's how this whole system, more or less, came about btw. How could I not listen to it? And how could I not also share it?

So what I did was alter the "range divisor" for each indy.

Top set: Digit 1 - range divisor of 9; Digit 4 - range divisor of 5
Middle set: Digit 1 - range divisor of 1; Digit 4 - range divisor of 1
Bottom set: Digit 1 - range divisor of 5; Digit 4 - range divisor of 9

After a weekend of testing, I saw immediately the value of it, but I don't understand the basis of it. I just don't. Perhaps somebody else can shed some light on it or maybe at some point I'll understand it or be led to a place where I can understand it. It's led to deeper questions for me for sure. But the way it behaves is almost like three different groups are entering/exiting the market.

What it seems to do reliably though is indicate the areas with the greatest big money involvement. For instance, when all three indys make a cross with each other, especially after a major bottom or top on H1 or H4, that level will not only hold, but launch a major campaign.

When the market is running, not one of the indys will cross each other until a profit target is approaching. Then maybe one or two of them will cross. If a major turning point is happening though, once again, all three will make crosses, either simultaneously, or in the same general area, and sometimes even multiple times. I spent a good 35 hours testing it since Friday.

But this isn't the kind of thing that a guy who wants to trade a bunch of currencies is going to want to mess with. It's better to stick to one or two pairs if you want to get in depth in this way. It's not necessary at all.
  • #372
  • Mar 21, 2016 12:59pm Mar 21, 2016 12:59pm
Hi Almuten, many thanks for your hard work over the weekend. Can I ask, approximately how many crossovers typically happen in a week? Kind Regards Moonie.
Quoting Almuten
New Template...and why it's here I think I'll likely lose some subscribers from saying this, but the reason I made a new template with more Benford indys on it is because that 'guidance' I keep telling you guys about said this to me on Friday: "5 and 9 are the numbers we are working with now..." It was unmistakable and as clear as a bell. That's how this whole system, more or less, came about btw. How could I not listen to it? And how could I not also share it? So what I did was alter the "range divisor" for each indy. Top set:...
  • #373
  • Mar 21, 2016 1:54pm Mar 21, 2016 1:54pm
Hi Almuten, really enjoying your thread. A lot of it is over my head stuff but I plan to try and digest it over the long term.

I think you're on to something with the 5 and 9 cycles.

The technical analysis software Wave 59 is named for one of its indicators which finds waves based on the individual numerical values of five and nine...not the number 59. I trialed the software a few years ago and didn't make much progress as my job got very busy but its full of interesting esoteric techniques.

http://www.wave59.com/About/EarikBeannBio.aspx




Quoting Almuten
New Template...and why it's here I think I'll likely lose some subscribers from saying this, but the reason I made a new template with more Benford indys on it is because that 'guidance' I keep telling you guys about said this to me on Friday: "5 and 9 are the numbers we are working with now..." It was unmistakable and as clear as a bell. That's how this whole system, more or less, came about btw. How could I not listen to it? And how could I not also share it? So what I did was alter the "range divisor" for each indy. Top set: Digit 1 - range divisor...
  • #374
  • Mar 21, 2016 3:02pm Mar 21, 2016 3:02pm
I too, have been trying to do back testing on the new Benford Template, (Thanks Almuten), but am very frustrated with MT4, with trying to get enough back history on the M1 charts.

Does any one know a quick way to force MT4 to download weeks and weeks of M1 back history?
  • #375
  • Mar 21, 2016 4:31pm Mar 21, 2016 4:31pm
Quoting Moonie
Hi Almuten, many thanks for your hard work over the weekend. Can I ask, approximately how many crossovers typically happen in a week? Kind Regards Moonie. {quote}
Wow...that's a very good question and one that I don't have an answer for! I didn't have time to write things down and keep records of my testing, etc...

But logically, if we think about it, these ought not to happen all that frequently. Generally they will collect at the tops and bottoms of large moves on the H1 & H4. Keep your eye out near old 3x & 4x profit target areas. If you do see many in the same area over and over, it might mean choppy waters ahead. But the H&R will keep you out of trouble.
  • #376
  • Mar 21, 2016 4:51pm Mar 21, 2016 4:51pm
Quoting Poocher
Hi Almuten, really enjoying your thread. A lot of it is over my head stuff but I plan to try and digest it over the long term. I think you're on to something with the 5 and 9 cycles. The technical analysis software Wave 59 is named for one of its indicators which finds waves based on the individual numerical values of five and nine...not the number 59. I trialed the software a few years ago and didn't make much progress as my job got very busy but its full of interesting esoteric techniques. http://www.wave59.com/About/EarikBeannBio.aspx...
Hey Poocher,

I am quite familiar with Wave 59, actually! I used it for almost a year - definitely a chartist's package. I didn't make that 5 & 9 correlation either, so thank you! Perhaps I need to contemplate it from that angle. I have their book of techniques that I read years ago - lots of very interesting stuff in there to be sure I think I might take another look at it.

But as to learning the methodology, it will sink in after a bit. Think of Russian dolls - all nesting within one another. I tried to keep it as simple as possible, with clear rules and so on. One thing logically fits into another, etc... But do not hesitate to ask a question. If I can answer it with a rule (see post 313), then I'll refer you to it. If something falls outside the rules, then I'll offer an explanation.

But the Benford thing...now that is definitely a little out there. I wouldn't focus too much on that at first though. It's just an addendum, really. This method can get really involved sometimes. Back in the day, I generally only traded one market so I wanted something that could help me to know what was going on in a single market pretty much all the time (virtually impossible, I know, but I have to try, right?). Anyway, the Benford just adds another layer for a person requiring more in-depth understanding of the fundamentals behind the market - that being big money.
  • #377
  • Mar 21, 2016 4:56pm Mar 21, 2016 4:56pm
Quoting Timo7
I too, have been trying to do back testing on the new Benford Template, (Thanks Almuten), but am very frustrated with MT4, with trying to get enough back history on the M1 charts. Does any one know a quick way to force MT4 to download weeks and weeks of M1 back history?
Hi Timo,

The only thing I know of is to use the 'History Center.' Just hit "F2" and it will appear. Then you can select the pair and TF you want to download. I also think that you might have to alter the "options' to be able to have enough chart data displayed.

The indy is a real resource hog though...so beware. You might want to shut off the data feed while you're putting it on and doing your testing. It will display much, much faster when it doesn't have to calculate the entire series with every new tick.
  • #378
  • Mar 21, 2016 5:17pm Mar 21, 2016 5:17pm
Quoting Moonie
Almuten, I'm just watching UJ, thinking it might be going short. The RSI has shot up while the RAC is buried below 20 on the H1. Please can you give your opinion. Many thanks Moonie.
Hi Moonie,

I would be very careful right now about that. There are several reasons I'm saying this. For starters, the M15 RAC is plastered against the ceiling (and it was 5 hours ago too). Also, the HAC on H1 is close to being penetrated, so one must be careful.

Generally, when you see extremes like that - one TF saying one thing and another saying the opposite, it portends of choppy waters ahead. Makes sense, right?

But here's the hard thing to remember...when things don't make sense, then stay away. Forexalien drilled that one into me!
  • #379
  • Mar 21, 2016 7:37pm Mar 21, 2016 7:37pm
USDJPY - Beware of the fakeout

Trading requires patience...lots of patience. When the time to pull the trigger comes, especially after lots and lots of waiting for the proper signal, it's very easy to get trigger happy. Way too easy! That's what our rules are for.

In the chart below I pointed out a few things to help keep things in check. This kind of thing happens all the time, so it's good to beware of.

1. There were around 50 M15 periods between the M15 HAC crossing and the H1 crossing - already a warning to not be long...at least for long . Sometimes this isn't a major issue, so long as the market hasn't really moved much. But this one was on a run. It's not going far.

2. The M15 already hit a 3x profit target - which typically calls for a retracement of some depth most times.

3. The RAC crossing was late on H1. The market had already pulled away from the HAC for several periods

4. The RSI on H4, when the market penetrated the green HAC line, hadn't even so much as budged. When a trade is really good, the RSI will have popped by the time the green HAC is hit. If it had popped in this instance, it might have mitigated some other factors to some extent.

There might be an exception brewing here...but as traders, we can't play exceptions unless we discover a statistically viable reason for doing so.
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  • #380
  • Edited 7:30am Mar 22, 2016 4:16am | Edited 7:30am
Quoting Almuten
For instance, when all three indys make a cross with each other, especially after a major bottom or top on H1 or H4, that level will not only hold, but launch a major campaign. When the market is running, not one of the indys will cross each other until a profit target is approaching.
Ok, now I'm checking this hypothesis online. Let's see, but that sounds very good. And that looks like You have naked one more grail...
I've found the #NIKKEY's level, where all three indies have crossings. It was formed on march, 18-th, 15:50 terminal time about. Price rose 400 points after that, now it is retracing. It looks like 1-st wave up is formed and 2-nd wave is forming. I'll post later - what came out of it.
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