HAC & RAC - A Simple-Minded Approach | Page 18 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trading like a Simple-Minded Gambler 5 replies

NITRO Variations for Open-minded Traders 290 replies

The Absent Minded Investor - Adventurous Forex Trading Tales 32 replies

Attachments: HAC & RAC - A Simple-Minded Approach
Exit Attachments

HAC & RAC - A Simple-Minded Approach

  • #341
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:40pm Mar 17, 2016 12:40pm
[quote=Rammstein73;8820160]I want to thank Almuten for his job. With his system I can see the market almost like an open book. I am very, very wondered! #NIKKEI, I've been talking about, has started his big move down.....

Hi Rammstein, may be concentrating on one pair or instrument may be the way to go. trying to catch something happening on 30 odd currency pairs is a bit daunting! Gold would be a good one, when it moves, it really moves a lot of pips.

Thanks Almuten for that story of your torpedo trade. How true it is, all you need is one good GOOD trade per month and you've made it!
  • #342
  • Mar 17, 2016 1:02pm Mar 17, 2016 1:02pm
Quoting Dovilo
{quote} I'm still not sure. I mean, it's true that D1 is completely out of position for a short trade (RAC scrubs the zero level) so I definitely shouldn't take a trade on a H4 timeframe. But what about H1/H4 pair? Selling on H1 with eyeballing H4 looked nice. Should I look on more TFs than just one higher, or maybe it was just one of these trades that went in wrong direction after all (well, we can't predict future with 100% accuracy)?
Hi Dovilo,

GBPUSD

Two other parts of this that I just noticed (sorry I didn't dissect this more thoroughly - I'm pretty tired right now) is to look at the number of bars between the M15 and H1 trigger. They are over 70 bars apart. Also, the RAC crossing came quite a bit after the HAC crossing on H1. Both of these indicate poor alignment...but not bad trades necessarily. It only means that the "tides of the market" aren't quite in sync enough for a truly spectacular move. At least H1 hit a 2x spot on though, which is still pretty decent.
  • #343
  • Mar 17, 2016 1:27pm Mar 17, 2016 1:27pm
Quoting Dovilo
{quote} I'm still not sure. I mean, it's true that D1 is completely out of position for a short trade (RAC scrubs the zero level) so I definitely shouldn't take a trade on a H4 timeframe. But what about H1/H4 pair? Selling on H1 with eyeballing H4 looked nice. Should I look on more TFs than just one higher, or maybe it was just one of these trades that went in wrong direction after all (well, we can't predict future with 100% accuracy)?
NZDJPY

Now this pair was a bit more challenging Dovilo. The reason is because there were active H4 trades to the long side still in play. There were two of them. The general rule is to consider them a factor until either:

1. The pivot is taken out
2. 3x has been hit

Until one of these occur, proceed carefully with any counter trend trade. Refer to post 313, 4-c. In situations like this, situations where there's large investment in one direction or the other, it's a good idea to keep an eye on M15-M1. If you have the time to keep your eye on it, it's no problem. If not, then I would not want to trade against the H4.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY 3-16a.PNG Size: 75 KB
  • #344
  • Mar 17, 2016 1:32pm Mar 17, 2016 1:32pm
GBPJPY - Today's Bottom Under a Microscope

I know this is getting into some precision stuff, but I wanted to highlight that 'surprise' bottom this pair made today. We all saw it coming, right? We knew 'they' were up to something big. My God, the Benford made so many crosses in this area it was maddening, wasn't it? Anyway, what I did was put x levels from all the trades to the short side so you could see how many were in the same area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ben-#9.PNG Size: 147 KB
  • #345
  • Mar 17, 2016 1:43pm Mar 17, 2016 1:43pm
Quoting Timo7
Quoting Rammstein73
I want to thank Almuten for his job. With his system I can see the market almost like an open book. I am very, very wondered! #NIKKEI, I've been talking about, has started his big move down..... Hi Rammstein, may be concentrating on one pair or instrument may be the way to go. trying to catch something happening on 30 odd currency pairs is a bit daunting! Gold would be a good one, when it moves, it really moves a lot of pips. Thanks Almuten for that story of your torpedo trade. How true it is, all you need is one good
...
Yes...and I think that most big traders are likely just working one or two pairs full-time and make a very good living doing so.

I've been considering working one currency group - perhaps the Yen pairs. Those are generally great movers. Plus, if you care to put the Benford on different groups, you'll see that levels can get established pretty close to the same time and general area.

When this happens, it generally means that they will move as a group too. Plus the H&R will signal close in time from one pair of the same group to another. One of them will be the leader, generally. If gold is your thing, other metals might also establish areas of interest as well. I don't know much about metals, but I imagine that oftentimes they, too, will move as a group.
  • #346
  • Mar 17, 2016 2:22pm Mar 17, 2016 2:22pm
Quoting Almuten
{quote} Hi Dovilo, GBPUSD Two other parts of this that I just noticed (sorry I didn't dissect this more thoroughly - I'm pretty tired right now) is to look at the number of bars between the M15 and H1 trigger. They are over 70 bars apart. Also, the RAC crossing came quite a bit after the HAC crossing on H1. Both of these indicate poor alignment...but not bad trades necessarily. It only means that the "tides of the market" aren't quite in sync enough for a truly spectacular move. At least H1 hit a 2x spot on though, which is still pretty decent.
No problem. It's true that there is a lot os space between H1 trigger and M15 trigger but that means I should look at more TFs than just two (H1 main with H4 as a filter for example).
Quote
NZDJPY

Now this pair was a bit more challenging Dovilo. The reason is because there were active H4 trades to the long side still in play. There were two of them. The general rule is to consider them a factor until either:

1. The pivot is taken out
2. 3x has been hit

Until one of these occur, proceed carefully with any counter trend trade. Refer to post 313, 4-c. In situations like this, situations where there's large investment in one direction or the other, it's a good idea to keep an eye on M15-M1. If you have the time to keep your eye...

Thanks for the insight.

Well, lets say my main TF will be H1. I will be looking for confirmation on both M15 and H4. The pairs that are looking promising for now are:

EUR/USD with all three TFs above or almost above RAC 80, I will wait for them to cross it from the upside, albeit it can take a while. M15 is also pretty far away from HAC.

USD/JPY with all TFs under the RAC 20, with M15 almost breaking it. I don't think it will actually work in the near future out because H1 and H4 are really far away from HAC.

EUR/JPY looks really nice. On M15 and H1 RAC just crossed its MA and price closed above HAC. It looks worse on H4 with price coming above HAC a week ago, and it stays there. Continuation of a choppy market?

CAD/JPY looks much like EUR/JPY.

AUD/JPY looks the best from the last 3 pairs but unfortunately, it has R/R of only about 1:1 on H4.

So, for today, for pairs I have scanned I don't see any trades. And that can be okay, markets are exhausted with recent two big news (ECB increasing QE and FED not increasing USD rates). Also It's much better not to trade at all than to trade badly.
  • #347
  • Mar 17, 2016 9:14pm Mar 17, 2016 9:14pm
Apologies for the delay in replying Almuten,

Many thanks for the indicator.

Moonie.

Quoting Almuten
{quote} Hey Moonie, Here's an indy I got some time ago. It shows the daily open. I used it a lot to experiment with the trendline approach I mentioned a while back. {file}
  • #348
  • Mar 18, 2016 10:18am Mar 18, 2016 10:18am
Quoting Moonie
Apologies for the delay in replying Almuten, Many thanks for the indicator. Moonie. {quote}
My pleasure Moonie
  • #349
  • Mar 18, 2016 10:19am Mar 18, 2016 10:19am
Quoting Dovilo
{quote} Also It's much better not to trade at all than to trade badly.
Well said! Be patient. There will be plenty of setups.
  • #350
  • Mar 18, 2016 10:44am Mar 18, 2016 10:44am
Timing: Introduction

Just when you thought it was over...

There's another aspect to this, one that I think some of you will appreciate and could be ready for. I don't want to overwhelm anybody, as I know some are just beginning to have the lights turned on. More information can overload mental circuits...and we certainly don't want that. But if that happens, merely let the mind rest for a while and continue on when ready.

I think what I have here will help calm some people down, help them relax and wait patiently for setups or profit targets to materialize. It's nice to be able to walk away from the monitor, isn't it?

I have over 500 pages of research notes when it comes to this system. Some of my more extensive ones have to do with timing using the RAC. At the time I made these notes, I was using static cycles of 24 periods. Sometimes this worked well, while at other times, it did not. However, using a dynamically-adjusted cycle works wonders with this.

Before I get into this, I would advise you to master the basic H&R system FIRST. This is because the application of this particular technique requires skill and discretion. Prior to mastery, the mind tends to want to 'systematize' everything into a series of mindless actions. Resist this temptation...please.
  • #351
  • Mar 18, 2016 10:55am Mar 18, 2016 10:55am
Quoting Almuten
Timing: Introduction Just when you thought it was over... There's another aspect to this, one that I think some of you will appreciate and could be ready for. I don't want to overwhelm anybody, as I know some are just beginning to have the lights turned on. More information can overload mental circuits...and we certainly don't want that. But if that happens, merely let the mind rest for a while and continue on when ready. I think what I have here will help calm some people down, help them relax and wait patiently for setups or profit targets...
Almuten

How do you dynamically adjust the cycle of 24 hours. can you give hourly breakup. I remember on Mql4.com forum somebody had asked to measure speed of tick flow per second. But what is your method.

kind regards.
  • #352
  • Mar 18, 2016 11:04am Mar 18, 2016 11:04am
Quoting T4xr
{quote} Almuten How do you dynamically adjust the cycle of 24 hours. can you give hourly breakup. I remember on Mql4.com forum somebody had asked to measure speed of tick flow per second. But what is your method. kind regards.
You, my friend, will probably have some keen insights into this. I'll be interested to hear them when they come! In fact, it was YOU who reminded me of this method. When you made your comment about the .382 multiplier and why it worked, etc... it turned a light on for me and I remembered my testing I did over six months ago...so thank you!
  • #353
  • Mar 18, 2016 11:13am Mar 18, 2016 11:13am
Timing: Lesson 1

Let's return to our old friend "The Beast."
What I've done here is to put on the cycle period indicator in order to obtain the period length at the time the RAC was crossed. This gave an extremely clean signal, as the HAC was crossed exactly on that moment. At that moment, the cycle period was 40. What I did was place the Fib Cycle tool on the HAC crossing and extended it 40 periods into the future. Subsequent lines are at 1.62 * 40 and 2.62 * 40


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Timing 1.PNG Size: 70 KB
  • #354
  • Mar 18, 2016 11:19am Mar 18, 2016 11:19am
On the way down, the same principle was applied

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Timing 2.PNG Size: 62 KB
  • #355
  • Mar 18, 2016 11:20am Mar 18, 2016 11:20am
[quote=Timo7;8821322]
Quoting Rammstein73
Hi Rammstein, may be concentrating on one pair or instrument may be the way to go.
This is the only true for me. May be there are traders who can monitor many instruments, but not me. I've tried to do that, but failed. All the instruments have their own spirit. I have to be tuned to instrument to feel its "breathing" in his different TF cycles. Moreover, we need time to rest, and when we work with 1-2 instruments we have this time. But 30 instruments could make us redeyed crazy.
Besided, in my experience there is simultaneity in different pairs activity. So I'm tuned on one of them, that matches to my requirements.
  • #356
  • Mar 18, 2016 11:28am Mar 18, 2016 11:28am
Quoting Almuten
On the way down, the same principle was applied {image}
Just one question about timing. How do you count cycle period? From red HAC cross to extremum, I see it right? May be to count cycle "from cross to cross" should be more correct? Thank you.
  • #357
  • Edited 12:00pm Mar 18, 2016 11:41am | Edited 12:00pm
Lesson 2 - The Best Circumstances for Application

Some care needs to be taken when it comes to applying this. I like higher TFs because it's the most useful on those. Below M15 things get a little dodgy at times. For the following reasons, you should stay at M15 & above.

1. The large players who create these cyclic patterns are playing for many pips - and those are generally found only on larger TFs.
2. When we get below M15, there are too many cross-currents running. M1 & M5 might be running against the tide of M15 or H1.
3. If the lower TFs are moving with the larger TFs, then why not just use the larger TFs anyway?

Like the general HAC rules, before applying timing for use as a profit-taking tool, we ought to have support of a larger TF in the same direction. Otherwise, the results might not be so reliable. In my GBPJPY example, H4 RAC had not crossed yet in that last short. It did however approach its green HAC line and the RAC was leveling out and getting ready to cross. Like I said, some skill and discretion is required.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Timing 3.PNG Size: 98 KB
  • #358
  • Mar 18, 2016 11:49am Mar 18, 2016 11:49am
And here it is on a D1. Sometimes this can be quite useful in a choppy market situation. When the cycle length is very short (in this example it was at 17) this will generally indicate chop.

I'm sure some of you have noticed by now that when the RAC is jumping around a lot, the market tends to be choppy. That's because the cycles are very short and this will be reflected in the RAC.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Timing 4.PNG Size: 62 KB
  • #359
  • Mar 18, 2016 12:12pm Mar 18, 2016 12:12pm
I think I'm just going to let this sit with you guys for a bit. You'll discover many applications for this and can, in all likelihood, incorporate it into a general strategy for your respective operations.

Just try not to press it too far. Timing is a 'magical' thing indeed, especially something that gives information days and weeks ahead in some cases. There can be a temptation to overdo it and become overly dependent on it to the exclusion of all else.

I plan to keep track of certain markets in a spreadsheet and have a 'countdown' timer that shows me anything that might be due for the day. At least I'm going to see how well this works. Naturally, as Rammstein indicated, too many markets make this method cumbersome, so I'll be limiting my tracking to just a few.
  • #360
  • Mar 18, 2016 12:17pm Mar 18, 2016 12:17pm
Quoting Rammstein73
{quote} Just one question about timing. How do you count cycle period? From red HAC cross to extremum, I see it right? May be to count cycle "from cross to cross" should be more correct? Thank you.
Interesting that you brought that up because I did try it that way and it seemed to have some merit, but the way I do it is to put the "CyclePeriod" indicator (it's in your indy folder) on the chart to obtain the period. But don't let me dissuade you from doing your own experimentation. It might work just fine in the manner you brought up.

There are issues with using an extreme pivot to the HAC cross though. One major problem I encountered was in very dull, slow-moving markets where the proper pivot wasn't clear enough. But the cycle indy has no such limitations, which is a major reason why I opted for it.
3 traders viewing now