Longshot_nl's confluence system

I use the following indicators:
- Pivot points: daily, weekly and monthly.
- Trend lines & parallel lines.
- Price action / support & resistance.
- Fibs.
- Other traders. They may have different strategies but the same turning-point as i have.
- Cross pair confluence.
- Elliott wave theory.

My strategy:
- I need to have a long term view on a pair to know in what direction i want to trade.
- I want to risk max 10 pips by trading off the 1 minute time-frame and let my trade run after i moved my stop loss to break even.
- When target is far away i may add in lower time-frame if nothing else important is going on.
- I enter my trade only where there is confluence.
- My main trade indicators are the daily, weekly and monthly pivot point on entry but i may enter without it in my confluence.
- When rejection is poor, i walk away from the trade even if i have some loss.
- I don't enter trades on Friday later upon the day because then traders close their positions and price becomes less predictable and between Friday and Monday a gap can occur which can leave me with a loss larger then my stop-loss. Will look how price is rejected. Can close trade and buy trade back on Monday.
- I only want to trade pairs with a low spread.

My view on EUR/GBP.

This 50% fib + TL could be an entry.
These parallel lines work pretty good but the level is broken 3 times already and is average at best.
Although i would look for pivot point confluence.
If price is too early or too late i don't trade it.
My stoploss would be just 10 pips and my target 80 pips.

1h chart:


My view on daily timeframe:
This right shoulder looks large but may still work.


But on the other hand, this might also become an expanding triangle.
This makes my setup in my first chart make more sense.


Here is one on a 30 minute timeframe.
If price tests here and at the time it matches a fib level i would short it.
If you cannot see it: this is also the daily pivot point.


These yellow squares mark points that are of interest to me too.
Again, i would look for more confluence, this alone would not be enough for me.


IMHO: There is no such thing as a stophunt fakeout.
You might look at this chart ans see a stophunt or fakeout:


But look at this one and perhaps you see something different.


Finally my weekly chart.
My expanding triangle plotted in this weekly chart.
If it tests this level we may get a very nice short opportunity.
Also here confluence is key.

My view on EUR/USD.

On my weekly chart EU looks bullish, it broke the TL but it tends to retest its TL's so i will be looking to buy on retest.


So the question is, when may it go down for a retest.
Here are some possible turning points.
daily chart:


Weekly chart, also price action.


The monthly price action tells me the 23 fib could have resistance and perhaps even be a turningpoint.
An AB=CD pattern could be forming at this level.
I would look on lower time-frames for confluence.

EUR/USD short term.

Here is an example.
I don't say this high is established and that you can safely short this.
I say that if this high stays, these are what turning points i would be interested in.
I would look for pivot point confluence, patterns parallel lines in other charts etc that would 'confirm' it as a turning point.
I would not trade this as it is now.



right now everyone is all bullish.
But this may still become a gartley pattern, although not too pretty.
(daily chart)

EUR USD daily chart.

This might be a turning point.
I have 3 trendlines here and something that could be interpreted as an AB=CD pattern. Although the time from A to B is different then from C to D. There also was previous resistance at this level.
So here from i start to find more confluence.
If price hits the top of a lower timeframe channel, that would be perfect for an entry.
The number i have is 1.1492. It could happen as soon tomorrow.
Unfortunate for me because i don't enter this short on Friday. I am sure there will be another opportunity on Monday.
I may go long tomorrow if i find an entry just to close it later.

My view on GBP/AUD.

On the monthy chart the TL is broken which is bearish.


When zooming in, we see these TL's want to be tested.


When this occurs on the weekly pivot point, its a nice trade.

GBP USD

This one comes from a lower low.
It could make an AB=CD pattern to the 38.2 fib which was previous support and resistance.
I would look for more confluence to get a more accurate entry.

Very nice charts and analysis, subscribed

Thank you.
If my GBP/AUD setup and EUR/GBP setup occur at the same time it makes them stronger setups.
It means GBP made a turn.
I don't have a chart of the GBP index which is too bad.

The same for my EU setup and my GU setup where USD may take a turn.

My EG looks missed to me so i don't trade it.
It may or may not work, but too risky for me.



Instead i would favor this area.

EU bump, might not make it to our entry today, we'll see.

I narrowed it down to this.
It is also the monthly pivot point.
If it happens in about 35 1h candlesticks i trade it.

Price got rejected from my first setup which i did not trade.

I was in this for a while, closed it for +pips because this could be an inverted H&S.
Also confluence was missed which affects the setups performance.
There will be better entries, this one makes me nervous.

And now it breaks, i did not make a mistake.

Good call. nice that i got some bearish pips out of this

Too bad i couldn't show a good working setup yet.
I am sure they will come soon.
Will be looking for more setups in the weekend.
cya.

eur usd
perhaps this brings us to 1.1492

Did some EW analysis on EU en EG.

EU: I prefer the more bullish count of b because it matches my other analysis.


EG: Assuming this will be an expanding triangle, i don't know yet when D and E will occur.

My view on eur chf.

I favor this count.
So right now i want to sell.


Perhaps this is a good spot to sell