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The Price is Right: Trading Price Action

  • #141
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:04pm Mar 17, 2016 12:04pm
Quoting artimusfree
<p>Yes ,looking at the charts the pairs traded to key S/R or S/D levels, we had major news events that caused the movements..so do we anticipate getting in a trade before news or wait after the news and place a trade playing a.pullback. This is always a question most traders have...Looking at the charts in real time. Because when it comes down to it it is still a guess where the pair is going to trade to. Any thoughts?

FYI... I never watch events. I believe the PA lends itself to each event. It's typically already written before it happens.
  • #142
  • Mar 17, 2016 12:42pm Mar 17, 2016 12:42pm
I have been trading for two years now and still don't have it correct. I think the pair is in a range and is at the top of the range, therefore if the price action suggests a downward movement I will go short.
  • #143
  • Mar 17, 2016 1:23pm Mar 17, 2016 1:23pm
Quoting LittleDoc
I have been trading for two years now and still don't have it correct. I think the pair is in a range and is at the top of the range, therefore if the price action suggests a downward movement I will go short.

To be clear, the overall trend is down. However, I was merely stating that PA indicates a breakout and was awaiting confirmation. If you cross reference other pairs, you may see the same thing. We all have our own styles that we rely upon. Trading from a win/loss perspective is black and white and after 2 yrs you "still don't have it correct" may just mean you're looking at the wrong thing. Both forks are right in their own regard, it's how you trade from it that will yield better results. If we took this pair to smaller TF's, it can easily be traded both ways.
  • #144
  • Mar 17, 2016 1:43pm Mar 17, 2016 1:43pm
danandsueco,

OK the trend is down. What time frame did u use to determine the downtrend?
  • #145
  • Mar 17, 2016 4:04pm Mar 17, 2016 4:04pm
Quoting LittleDoc
danandsueco, OK the trend is down. What time frame did u use to determine the downtrend?
Typical patterns indicate downtrend on wkly chart. Obviously the pair is in consolidation at the moment, I would not use the weekly to decide my trades.

*Ignore the thin blue lines for the purpose of this chart/explanation.

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  • #146
  • Mar 17, 2016 6:21pm Mar 17, 2016 6:21pm
Quoting danandsueco
{quote} Typical patterns indicate downtrend on wkly chart. Obviously the pair is in consolidation at the moment, I would not use the weekly to decide my trades. *Ignore the thin blue lines for the purpose of this chart/explanation. {image}
Thanks. I don't think I would have gone to the weekly chart.
  • #147
  • Mar 17, 2016 9:09pm Mar 17, 2016 9:09pm
If my contribution is too far off topic just say so and I will refrain. It seems there is room for different interpretations of support and resistance so thought I'd give it a go. Great thread by the way Eaglestar!
Weekly long body candles often act as support and resistance especially the lower body half of a bullish or upper body half of a bearish. Although similar in appearance to "supply and demand" it is not yet supply and demand principles are certainly active.
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Price retraces within weekly support area and provides signal/s. Once price confirms that the bullish weekly long body candle is truly acting as support then bullish long body daily candles created can also provide support for future signals within them.
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  • #148
  • Mar 17, 2016 9:13pm Mar 17, 2016 9:13pm
Weekly engulf acting as support.
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Daily engulf north providing buy signal. However tomorrow is Friday so I don't usually trade going into Friday
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  • #149
  • Mar 17, 2016 9:15pm Mar 17, 2016 9:15pm
Something to watch next week.

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  • #150
  • Mar 17, 2016 10:00pm Mar 17, 2016 10:00pm
Quoting LittleDoc
Is the trend up or down {image}
Depending on the size of your candles and how much info you have on your screen will affect how you identify your trend. Trends may be important and i'm not here to say they are not, however the emphasis on them is far too great. Recent PA, S/R and it's interpretation is more important.

The chart below really shows weekly price in a range but the blue diagonal one can argue shows an uptrend while the yellow diagonal shows a downtrend with current PA breaking it. To me trendlines, as I've drawn then are meaningless but just to illustrate the point that the trend is often quite subjective and may or may not be important. On the other hand Eaglestar has done good work with Andrew's Pitchfork and it's ability to identify the trend is bar none.
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  • #151
  • Mar 17, 2016 11:28pm Mar 17, 2016 11:28pm
Quoting Winston Reed
If my contribution is too far off topic just say so and I will refrain. It seems there is room for different interpretations of support and resistance so thought I'd give it a go. Great thread by the way Eaglestar! Weekly long body candles often act as support and resistance especially the lower body half of a bullish or upper body half of a bearish. Although similar in appearance to "supply and demand" it is not yet supply and demand principles are certainly active. {image} Price retraces within weekly support area and provides signal/s. Once price...
Excellent work, and welcome!
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #152
  • Mar 17, 2016 11:39pm Mar 17, 2016 11:39pm
Quoting Winston Reed
Weekly engulf acting as support. {image} Daily engulf north providing buy signal. However tomorrow is Friday so I don't usually trade going into Friday {image}
In regards to what you are seeing, a continued observation an a Monthly candle

A visual as to how/why sr and sd work and are similar. the price of the higher timeframe close is showing a vibrational frequency into the future.monthly open/close will resonate in the future, similar to weekly close/open.
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #153
  • Mar 17, 2016 11:50pm Mar 17, 2016 11:50pm
An example of the Yen recent high
just an observation
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #154
  • Mar 18, 2016 12:20am Mar 18, 2016 12:20am
USDJPY
Andrews Pitchfork similar
I sharing these observations in the effort to help you increase your RRR to a minimum of 5:1... sometimes much more.
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #155
  • Mar 18, 2016 12:44am Mar 18, 2016 12:44am
Correct analysis WR.
Quoting Winston Reed
...Great thread by the way Eaglestar! Weekly long body candles often act as support and resistance especially the lower body half of a bullish or upper body half of a bearish. Although similar in appearance to "supply and demand" it is not yet supply and demand principles are certainly active. {image} Price retraces within weekly support area and provides signal/s. Once price confirms that the bullish weekly long body candle is truly acting as support then bullish long body daily candles created can also provide support for future signals within...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #156
  • Mar 18, 2016 12:59am Mar 18, 2016 12:59am
I must redraw my charts, but so far these pairs are close to important levels
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #157
  • Mar 18, 2016 2:22am Mar 18, 2016 2:22am
​I usually don't read other threads basically to keep myself on track with my style of trading. But, I decided to check this thread out just because of the title it had. Boy am I glad I did. There is some really good stuff in here. Great job Eaglestar. I'm definitely subscribing to this thread. I've been trading off and now now for about 12 years. At first I didn't have a clue as to anything involved in trading. After I got into it a bit (like 2 or 3 years). I finally came across this website. This is where I found out about metatrader charts. Once I started using these charts I thought the answer was indicators and started playing around with them. I would read a thread about a system and how it worked for someone and thought gee, those indicators would work great and thought this was going to be the system of my dreams and was going to make me rich. Then I'd read another thread about someone else with a total different set of indicators and just had to try those indicators too. I couldn't tell you how many systems I tried. Not a single one of them worked for me. I started reading about price action and patterns and realized for me, that was the best way to trade.

I've spent thousands of hours just looking at charts, and watching price move. These price points that you see and are using to draw your lines makes total sense. I am definitely going to go back and re-read this thread again to learn more about how you do this and keep checking up on this thread. I can see how high probability trades can be made on a lower time frame chart trading this way. I really look forward to more of your posts and learning something from you. I'm also excited to learn about pitchforks too. That is one thing I really didn't try using but I think It's time to try it out and see how it works for me.

Thank you Eaglestar, it's very obvious you know what you are talking about.
JOHN 3:16
  • #158
  • Mar 18, 2016 7:51am Mar 18, 2016 7:51am
Quoting Winston Reed
If my contribution is too far off topic just say so and I will refrain. It seems there is room for different interpretations of support and resistance so thought I'd give it a go. Great thread by the way Eaglestar! Weekly long body candles often act as support and resistance especially the lower body half of a bullish or upper body half of a bearish. Although similar in appearance to "supply and demand" it is not yet supply and demand principles are certainly active. {image} Price retraces within weekly support area and provides signal/s. Once price...
Hi Winston, you mention "supply and demand", how do you determine supply and demand?
  • #159
  • Mar 18, 2016 8:58am Mar 18, 2016 8:58am
[quote=LittleDoc;8823001]{quote} Hi Winston, you mention "supply and demand", how do you determine supply and demand?[/quote

Redsword's thread "​Price is Everything" is the bible on supply and demand trading. I want to be sure you understand that what I am portraying on my charts is not supply and demand trading as Redsword taught. However most simplistically supply exists where sellers sell at relatively high prices and demand exists where buyers buy at relatively low prices. If one intends to buy at support then in essence the buyer assumes price is low enough and there is demand. The opposite is true for selling at resistance.
  • #160
  • Mar 18, 2016 12:19pm Mar 18, 2016 12:19pm
Weekly engulf confirming resistance. The weekly engulf is also a long body candle and it is likely to act as resistance.
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Daily bearish engulf followed by bearish PA
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