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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #6,081
  • Jan 20, 2016 8:48am Jan 20, 2016 8:48am
Updates on my trades, I took profits on short UJ, NJ, NZDUSD, AUDUSD. I am still short EJ and EURUSD. I was waiting for my short EURUSD position to hit my SL level, but PA has been sideways ever since. Take home message for me is that EURUSD is negatively correlated to equities, which is in contrast to its previous positive correlation in the last 7-8 years. EUR behaves more like JPY now than GBP, AUD, CAD, and NZD. Historically, JPY has been a funding currency, but it seems EUR has become a funding currency due to its low interest rate. That might explain the new type of behavior we see in EUR related pairs. In a falling stock market situation going long EURUSD might be a better trade than going short. But nonetheless, my favorite trade in a falling stock market situation is going short AJ, NJ or UJ.
  • #6,082
  • Mar 16, 2016 9:06am Mar 16, 2016 9:06am
Going short USDCHF, targeting 0.97 and 0.95 in extension.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFusH4.png Size: 43 KB
  • #6,083
  • Mar 16, 2016 9:16am Mar 16, 2016 9:16am
Looking to go long AUDUSD, both price action and COT positioning indicate more AUD strength in mid-term.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDusH4.png Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.PNG Size: 46 KB
  • #6,084
  • Mar 16, 2016 10:56am Mar 16, 2016 10:56am
Going short USDJPY with a SL above 115, targeting 111. RRR seems appropriate at current level. Both PA and COT indicate JPY strength.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYusH4.png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy.PNG Size: 44 KB
  • #6,085
  • Mar 16, 2016 12:03pm Mar 16, 2016 12:03pm
Got in on aud-usd. What do you see as a good tp area? Obviously getting higher than 7600 would be the next target i see which is recent highs.
  • #6,086
  • Mar 16, 2016 12:51pm Mar 16, 2016 12:51pm
Quoting ferndog
Got in on aud-usd. What do you see as a good tp area? Obviously getting higher than 7600 would be the next target i see which is recent highs.
It's a good trade. I myself will TP at .76 on 2/3 of my positions and keep 1/3 open with SL to B/E at .7450
  • #6,087
  • Mar 16, 2016 12:56pm Mar 16, 2016 12:56pm
Quoting shahab8b
Going short USDCHF, targeting 0.97 and 0.95 in extension. {image}
Got a few shot USDCHF, turned out to be a good trade after all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFusH477.png Size: 67 KB
  • #6,088
  • Mar 16, 2016 12:59pm Mar 16, 2016 12:59pm
Quoting shahab8b
Going short USDJPY with a SL above 115, targeting 111. RRR seems appropriate at current level. Both PA and COT indicate JPY strength. {image} {image}
Got a few shorts on USDJPY as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYusH477.png Size: 58 KB
  • #6,089
  • Mar 17, 2016 5:58am Mar 17, 2016 5:58am
Quoting shahab8b
Going short USDCHF, targeting 0.97 and 0.95 in extension. {image}
Update on USDCHF short trade, I TP on all positions except 1, moving SL to protect some profite.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFusH4-1.png Size: 65 KB
  • #6,090
  • Mar 17, 2016 6:00am Mar 17, 2016 6:00am
Quoting shahab8b
Going short USDJPY with a SL above 115, targeting 111. RRR seems appropriate at current level. Both PA and COT indicate JPY strength. {image} {image}
Update on USDJPY short trade, I TP on all poisitions except 1, moving SL to protect some profit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYusH4-1.png Size: 56 KB
  • #6,091
  • Mar 17, 2016 7:08am Mar 17, 2016 7:08am
I got in on usd-jpy rite now at 111.70 with tp 111.00 sl 112.25. I think we get to 111 again.
  • #6,092
  • Mar 17, 2016 9:12am Mar 17, 2016 9:12am
Quoting ferndog
I got in on usd-jpy rite now at 111.70 with tp 111.00 sl 112.25. I think we get to 111 again.
That should work, your SL is too tight though. I don't use very tight SL anymore bc I don't want to get stopped with random price movement (one standard deviation move happens 66% of the time)
  • #6,093
  • Mar 17, 2016 10:01am Mar 17, 2016 10:01am
Was able to get those pips. For sure sl was tight. I was around the computer . Good to know about that sd will consider that for my next trade.
  • #6,094
  • Mar 17, 2016 11:05am Mar 17, 2016 11:05am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} That should work, your SL is too tight though. I don't use very tight SL anymore bc I don't want to get stopped with random price movement (one standard deviation move happens 66% of the time)
very nice to see you back :-)
i always love your posts :-)
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #6,095
  • Mar 21, 2016 2:48pm Mar 21, 2016 2:48pm
Quoting aserbfx
{quote} very nice to see you back :-) i always love your posts :-)
Thank you!
  • #6,096
  • Mar 22, 2016 4:24pm Mar 22, 2016 4:24pm
I might go short USDJPY again. There is a bullish divergence, but the downtrend seems strong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY88.png Size: 41 KB
  • #6,097
  • Mar 24, 2016 9:32pm Mar 24, 2016 9:32pm
Take profit could be in the double digits. (depending on how long one's time horizon is).
  • #6,098
  • Mar 25, 2016 7:42am Mar 25, 2016 7:42am
Quoting InfinitySL
Take profit could be in the double digits. (depending on how long one's time horizon is).
What?
  • #6,099
  • Mar 25, 2016 8:08am Mar 25, 2016 8:08am
Attractive RRR for a counter-trend short position at EURGBP, with a tight SL above 0.7950, targeting .78 and .77 in extension.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPusDaily.png Size: 40 KB
  • #6,100
  • Mar 25, 2016 9:09am Mar 25, 2016 9:09am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} What?
My post (if you could call it that) was very poorly worded.

All I meant was depending on how long one's time frame is, I could see Usd/JPY <100. That's all i meant my double digits.
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