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Another Simple London Breakout System (with a twist)

  • #21
  • Mar 16, 2016 10:10am Mar 16, 2016 10:10am
Quote
Another nonsense system that's been done a thousand times and failed a thousand times.
Why do you say that?Have you had problems with some system like this one?
Old ways dont open new doors
  • #22
  • Mar 16, 2016 11:08am Mar 16, 2016 11:08am
Quoting Wholesome
Another nonsense system that's been done a thousand times and failed a thousand times. Cherry picking results won't help you. GBPAUD in February was 11 winning days 10 losing days = -160 pips, that's without spreads.

You my man have just won the most helpful member of this forum award. Any ideas on how to improve the system? If not, please leave and do not return. I'm looking for adults who can help me develop this in to something worth using live.

Are you down on the year, blow up another account? You sure as hell sound like it?

Good bye.
When trading: "Empty your mind, be formless. Shapeless, like water."
  • #23
  • Mar 16, 2016 12:03pm Mar 16, 2016 12:03pm
Quoting Wholesome
Another nonsense system that's been done a thousand times and failed a thousand times. Cherry picking results won't help you. GBPAUD in February was 11 winning days 10 losing days = -160 pips, that's without spreads.
with TP =2x SL your math its screwed up if you followed rules backtesting
  • #24
  • Mar 16, 2016 12:44pm Mar 16, 2016 12:44pm
Quoting Kunay9
{quote} with TP =2x SL your math its screwed up if you followed rules backtesting
Actually risk reward is not 1:2 all the time, there are times when market swing to hit stop loss of one side (-30 pips) then swing to the other side to hit stop loss of other side (-30 pips). GJ looks quite good despite it being known for swinging alot .
  • #25
  • Mar 16, 2016 1:39pm Mar 16, 2016 1:39pm
Quoting Shemski
{quote} You my man have just won the most helpful member of this forum award. Any ideas on how to improve the system? If not, please leave and do not return. I'm looking for adults who can help me develop this in to something worth using live. Are you down on the year, blow up another account? You sure as hell sound like it? Good bye.
i think MA can help to avoid hitting SL both side...I mean if we have 21 MA filter will help us a lot...above long and below short...I didnt do backtesting but giving idea so we can improve...i will do visual back testing and post the results for one pair in couple of hours...

thanks
  • #26
  • Mar 16, 2016 1:46pm Mar 16, 2016 1:46pm
Yes Stevox, it's something they don't really understand, price will often move 30 each way, which is then -60 pips, they probably think if it moves 30 one way then 70 the other it's a winner, when it isn't, it's a losing trade. It's so simple to backtest and prove it's a ridiculous system, adding indicators and all that other junk won't make it any better, if you learnt to read the charts rather than looking for a quick and easy winning system (there isn't one, by the way, if there was the markets would collapse) then you might stand a chance, rather than playing games.

^^ here they come, add an MA, yep then a RSI, oh and for confirmation a pichfork maybe?, these threads always go the same way.
  • #27
  • Mar 16, 2016 1:52pm Mar 16, 2016 1:52pm
Quoting Wholesome
Yes Stevox, it's something they don't really understand, price will often move 30 each way, which is then -60 pips, they probably think if it moves 30 one way then 70 the other it's a winner, when it isn't, it's a losing trade. It's so simple to backtest and prove it's a ridiculous system, adding indicators and all that other junk won't make it any better, if you learnt to read the charts rather than looking for a quick and easy winning system (there isn't one, by the way, if there was the markets would collapse) then you might stand a chance, rather...
what i don't understand its your attitude..

if every guy comes in every thread saying that the strategy proposed its a shit ww won't go anywhere..

improving it together its what we must do..

i agree that an MA can't really be a gamechanger but the trades managment can be improved for sure..

think about it and propose something if you can
  • #28
  • Mar 16, 2016 2:27pm Mar 16, 2016 2:27pm
think about it and propose something if you can

I did, in my post kunay, I point out these crazy systems so new people like yourself don't start to believe this is how you trade. If you just want to play with charts then go ahead, if you want to learn to trade go elsewhere, it'll save your time and sanity.
  • #29
  • Mar 16, 2016 2:28pm Mar 16, 2016 2:28pm
Hi Shemsky,

thanks for sharing your system. Range Breakout systems such as Londong Breakout or Morning Breakout always have interested me.
The concept always looks good on hindsight. And there are many successful traders exploiting these trading strategies.

Your twist did catch my interest. I am not a frequent poster on FF but drop by time to time and read through the threads.
I don't know if I understood your entry strategy correctly. At first I thought you want to place entry orders at the high and low of the Asian session at Londong open.
So thought you meant an oco order as someone suggested earlier.
But rereading your first post, there is no such thing mentioned. You have no range you want price to break out, right?

You enter at London open two orders with the mentioned parameters (sl 30 and tp 70) and let the market decide which way to go. Best scenario would be a profit of 40 pips (disregarding spread and possible slippage) and worst case scenario would be a profit of -60 Pips. Do I understand your concept correctly?

Cheers,
Wmn
Never stop to learn
  • #30
  • Mar 16, 2016 3:00pm Mar 16, 2016 3:00pm
Unfortunately, I have to agree with some of the posters here. There is million breakout systems here on Forexfactory, but frankly I am not aware of any which would last longer term. I did trade breakout system which was amazingly profitable over 2 years of backtesting. Unfortunately, most of breakout systems are curve fitted - ie they only look good because you know how currency has performed historically. Entering 30 pips above/below London open which you are essentially doing with 2 positions doesnt take into account changes in volatility over time
  • #31
  • Mar 16, 2016 3:08pm Mar 16, 2016 3:08pm
The idea behind this simple strat is price tends to makes it's biggest move during the London session. Price also tends to move at least 100 pips during a trading day or two. A lot of volume enters the market right at Londons open, swings are normal but the trading days direction is "usually" determined within a few hours and 20-60 pips. Let's be honest, a 10-20 pip swing is nothing during a trading day.

If you don't like the idea or think I am wasting your time, leave and don't come back. If you think this might have potential and are willing to add something, then please do so. Not once did I state this was bullet proof, not once did I mention this could be "the system". I understand that this system willnot work on all pairs in all markets, but maybe (and I'm pretty sure it will), maybe it could be profitable in a trending market???

Again, just leave. Aynone else who is willing tohelp me, please feel free to join.

Good bye again and hello to whoever has joined!

Wmn, yes you are correct!
When trading: "Empty your mind, be formless. Shapeless, like water."
  • #32
  • Mar 16, 2016 3:26pm Mar 16, 2016 3:26pm
Quoting Shemski
The idea behind this simple strat is price tends to makes it's biggest move during the London session. Price also tends to move at least 100 pips during a trading day or two. A lot of volume enters the market right at Londons open, swings are normal but the trading days direction is "usually" determined within a few hours and 20-60 pips. Let's be honest, a 10-20 pip swing is nothing during a trading day. If you don't like the idea or think I am wasting your time, leave and don't come back. If you think this might have potential and are willing to...
my advice would be that you read through say 10 breakout strategies here at forexfactory. you want help with system but in reality, there are many systems like yours. you are only playing around with time of entry and the size of the breakout box. not meaning this in a bad way...
of course , currencies move 20-60 pips etc... the volatility of some currencies have tripled in the past in the matter of few months due to fundamentals (quantitative easing...). my point is why did you chose 30 pips and not 27 pips or 40?
  • #33
  • Mar 16, 2016 3:44pm Mar 16, 2016 3:44pm
I think the every breakout system is not so perfect, but it is really profitable if we can do it properly and luck help us.
If we can add the strategy with any busket type strategy then it would be more profitable. Its my own opinion. Hope for the best.
  • #34
  • Mar 16, 2016 4:07pm Mar 16, 2016 4:07pm
Quoting Manna
I think the every breakout system is not so perfect, but it is really profitable if we can do it properly and luck help us. If we can add the strategy with any busket type strategy then it would be more profitable. Its my own opinion. Hope for the best.
how do you make a breakout strategy "properly"?
  • #35
  • Mar 16, 2016 4:58pm Mar 16, 2016 4:58pm
think it would be good to use the box breakout indicator forms a nice box to see high and low of asian markets so i set my trades above and below depending which way the pair is trending
  • #36
  • Edited 8:20pm Mar 16, 2016 7:46pm | Edited 8:20pm
Respect -> Hanover: Daily Line Boxes will allow you to draw/color code a 24 hour period: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=256848

Attached GIF is an example.

EUR/USD

Monday 2016-3-14 4 am EDT

You can see a sell taking profit 75 pips away.

Could use 37.5 pips as the SL.

Could re-enter on the retracement in the direction of the retracement....only in direction of retracement .... or could do both directions like the initial trades.

1st Trade Net 37.5 pips: Buy Loss -37.5 pips / Sell Take Profit 75 pips

2nd Trade Net 75 pips: Buy Take Profit 75 pips

Total for the week so far = 112.5 pips.

52 Week ATR approx. 280 pips (this could allow you to account for changes in the market over time)

Target could be 280 / 2 = 140 pips

Target could be 140 pips / 2 = 70 pips.

(Yes, I know the example I used was 75 pips, and yes, I know that I used 4 am, and yes I know I only provided an example for one day vs. moving from Monday at 4 am to Tuesday at 4 am to Wednesday at 4 am, etc.)

(Spread not accounted for in the calculations above. Could subtract 4 pips on the entry, 4 pips on the exit, or any other method based on your broker.)

If you use Monday as the day of your trade, you can easily do 52 back tests per year, and go back as far as you'd like. 5 years minimum, 10 preferably.

If you use Monday as the day of your trade and if you choose to enter the trade after 35 pips in the example provided you wont have a loss. However you will only have 75 pips in profit vs.112.5.

Shem: Absorb what others say. Respond to them or don't respond. Next, figure out your money management routine/process. Good luck and best wishes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-3-14 4 am edt.GIF Size: 28 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Daily LinesBoxes(1).ex4   72 KB | 394 downloads
File Type: mq4 Daily LinesBoxes(1).mq4   32 KB | 461 downloads
  • #37
  • Mar 17, 2016 3:44am Mar 17, 2016 3:44am
Quoting BarneyDog
Respect -> Hanover: Daily Line Boxes will allow you to draw/color code a 24 hour period: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=256848 Attached GIF is an example. EUR/USD Monday 2016-3-14 4 am EDT You can see a sell taking profit 75 pips away. Could use 37.5 pips as the SL. Could re-enter on the retracement in the direction of the retracement....only in direction of retracement .... or could do both directions like the initial trades. 1st Trade Net 37.5 pips: Buy Loss -37.5 pips / Sell Take Profit 75 pips 2nd Trade Net 75 pips:...

Thanks, good stuff. Looking in to it now! Great indy btw!
When trading: "Empty your mind, be formless. Shapeless, like water."
  • #38
  • Mar 17, 2016 6:04am Mar 17, 2016 6:04am
Quoting Wholesome
^^ here they come, add an MA, yep then a RSI, oh and for confirmation a pichfork maybe?, these threads always go the same way.

Exactly what I was thinking. You are completely right. This system will lose, not all the time, but it won't win enough. Price will make sure of it.
  • #39
  • Mar 17, 2016 7:14am Mar 17, 2016 7:14am
Guys and gals, I don't understand why you don't let the thread starter examine his idea.

Be open minded and you might learn something. It's not necessary to intoxicate a new thread.
Breakout stragegies have their raison d'etre. Otherwise they wouldn't exist since such along time.

Cheers,
Wmn
Never stop to learn
  • #40
  • Mar 18, 2016 11:45am Mar 18, 2016 11:45am
I tryed this idea and took 10 trades on thursday. I'll continue to do this. I didn't take any trades today, merely cause of oversleeping. My alarm was off.
Anyway.

The results are as follows:
AUD/CAD Long -> -0,00301
AUD/CAD Short -> 0,00701
GBP/AUD Long -> -0,003
GBP/AUD Short -> -0,003
GBP/NZD Long -> -0,00302
GBP/NZD Short -> 0,00705
NZD/CAD Long -> -0,003
NZD/CAD Short -> -0,00305
EUR/NZD Long -> -0,003
EUR/NZD Short -> 0,00706

All trades closed on thursday, except AUD/CAD Long. This one closed today.
Never stop to learn
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