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  • #139,601
  • Mar 14, 2016 1:02pm Mar 14, 2016 1:02pm
Equities worldwide completing the legs right on time for the FED. S&P struggling at 2020.xx as widely expected sadly without me on board for that last push.

All markets cleared maps for the FED. We are aligning for a 'cheerful' spring if the FED play ball (do nothing) for a classical 'sell on May and go away' but beyond that its getting darker and darker with a massive storm on the making.

For now, looking for trading opps in equities for the zigzag play on the ECB/FED combo while on the rest of the board not much to do but letting positions play out.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,602
  • Mar 14, 2016 1:10pm Mar 14, 2016 1:10pm
Quoting sisse
All markets cleared maps for the FED. We are aligning for a 'cheerful' spring if the FED play ball (do nothing) for a classical 'sell on May and go away' but beyond that its getting darker and darker with a massive storm on the making.
The FOMC members see those dark clouds as well as you and I do - perhaps they may want to get in another little ffr hike in Mar while the window is open? If they wait for later in the year the window may slam shut ....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,603
  • Mar 14, 2016 1:18pm Mar 14, 2016 1:18pm
I'm ready.
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  • #139,604
  • Mar 14, 2016 3:58pm Mar 14, 2016 3:58pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} The FOMC members see those dark clouds as well as you and I do - perhaps they may want to get in another little ffr hike in Mar while the window is open? If they wait for later in the year the window may slam shut ....
From a strictly monetary policy point of view a hike would be a very good and progressive decision to put a hard end on the cycle, creating some space in rates in case June/July becomes a bloodbath worldwide and FED is force to take a temporary step back.

In reality I don't think the FED has the 'balls' to do it and go against the biggest bastards enjoying the low rates, free money cycle... Odds are very low to non existent for FED action this week...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,605
  • Mar 14, 2016 4:08pm Mar 14, 2016 4:08pm
exactly - when have they ever done the most reasonable thing?.....anyway, I have some bets on a hike and a sharp vol increase but I will also make more money if they maintain the SQ
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,606
  • Mar 14, 2016 4:54pm Mar 14, 2016 4:54pm
Quoting The Fool
exactly - when have they ever done the most reasonable thing?.....anyway, I have some bets on a hike and a sharp vol increase but I will also make more money if they maintain the SQ
Check yen ...UJ is set to be the highlight of the spring in case of a FED flop....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,607
  • Mar 14, 2016 5:08pm Mar 14, 2016 5:08pm
Quoting sisse
Equities worldwide completing the legs right on time for the FED. S&P struggling at 2020.xx as widely expected sadly without me on board for that last push. All markets cleared maps for the FED. We are aligning for a 'cheerful' spring if the FED play ball (do nothing) for a classical 'sell on May and go away' but beyond that its getting darker and darker with a massive storm on the making. For now, looking for trading opps in equities for the zigzag play on the ECB/FED combo while on the rest of the board not much to do but...
sisse, can u comment more on following (for me whos not so understanding)?

1) you talk about cheerful spring if the FED play the ball: what I understand from it - if the FED stays pat + ECB bazooka - the equities (or lets talk about SP500) are gonna have one more last extension til May, right? But....... why is that since FED is basically gonna do what is expected? So the price cannot be influenced by expectation as FED is gonna be inline +++ couldnt it be even to the other side? FED stays pat but tries to boost the expectation for hike in next meeting hoping the "window" is still gonna be opened? So the equities should decline without the extension?

2) And the dumb question: we discussed the zig-zag before.... but this is gonna be direfent kind, or nor? Cuz what I get: you talk about following - we choppy till the FED, after FED stays pat (no matter how hawkish/dovish) the equities make one very short term leg down before shooting over the recent lvl to form the extension...... is this the zig-zag as a continuarion of the recent leg...... and not as a correction as the one we discussed before?

Thank you
  • #139,608
  • Mar 15, 2016 2:43am Mar 15, 2016 2:43am
Quoting chester123
{quote} sisse, can u comment more on following (for me whos not so understanding)? 1) you talk about cheerful spring if the FED play the ball: what I understand from it - if the FED stays pat + ECB bazooka - the equities (or lets talk about SP500) are gonna have one more last extension til May, right? But....... why is that since FED is basically gonna do what is expected? So the price cannot be influenced by expectation as FED is gonna be inline +++ couldnt it be even to the other side? FED stays pat but tries to boost the expectation for hike...
You're right, the Fed doing nothing is fully expected - an increase in rates On Wednesday would unleash a huge wave of volatility, purely due to the fact that no Fed speaker has prepared the market for the possibility of such an event.

However, all eyes will be on the statement, to see if the Fed strikes a more hawkish tone, leaving a hike in June on the table. Certainly, a more hawkish tone in the outlook than we saw in January is expected, given the comparably more favourable global financial conditions and the stabilisation in commodity prices.
  • #139,609
  • Mar 15, 2016 5:04am Mar 15, 2016 5:04am
Quoting sisse
Check yen ...UJ is set to be the highlight of the spring in case of a FED flop.... sisse
gbp/jpy will drop like a turd on Brexit angst
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,610
  • Mar 15, 2016 7:27am Mar 15, 2016 7:27am
Eyes on reports as we may have a last runner before the FED.

Expecting inline or better with Euro Holding 1.108x with NY to complete a test on the highs while Equities lossing foot on a tick below the current lows for a quick test 1990x.x for the FED....

Last cheap tickets available in the Euro and Yen for the news flow ....

GL all ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,611
  • Mar 15, 2016 7:41am Mar 15, 2016 7:41am
Slightly miss in Retail Sales but for today the headline is in the first positive print in NY manufacturing numbers in nearly 8 months. All aligning for a inline FED without surprises in the current expectations ....

Quoting chester123
{quote} 1) you talk about cheerful spring if the FED play the ball: what I understand from it - if the FED stays pat + ECB bazooka - the equities (or lets talk about SP500) are gonna have one more last extension til May, right? But.......2) And the dumb question: we discussed the zig-zag before.... but this is gonna be direfent kind, or nor? Cuz what I get: you talk about following - we choppy till the FED, after FED stays pat
As long as FED do nothing new we have the extension in play for Spring. A surprise hike will caught equities in the wrong foot in the very short term creating a sharp short-circuit with a extended leg down. Any other outcome including a super dovish FED will just affect the momentum and volatility of the leg...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,612
  • Mar 15, 2016 11:30am Mar 15, 2016 11:30am
sisse, looks like the Gator has lured your disciples into The Swamp
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,613
  • Mar 15, 2016 11:51am Mar 15, 2016 11:51am
Quoting The Fool
sisse, looks like the Gator has lured your disciples into The Swamp
I am still reading and watching
  • #139,614
  • Mar 15, 2016 11:55am Mar 15, 2016 11:55am
Quoting The Fool
sisse, looks like the Gator has lured your disciples into The Swamp
its just that calm waiting pre-FED as usual
  • #139,615
  • Mar 16, 2016 7:40am Mar 16, 2016 7:40am
so we had good inflation data whats next?
  • #139,616
  • Mar 16, 2016 7:44am Mar 16, 2016 7:44am
Quoting mayafx
so we had good inflation data whats next?
Imminent breakdown alerts lol.
  • #139,617
  • Mar 16, 2016 7:46am Mar 16, 2016 7:46am
US data INLINE and slightly better than expected..........

Believe it is the same plays and levels until the FOMC........
  • #139,618
  • Mar 16, 2016 7:50am Mar 16, 2016 7:50am
seems people making fun out of others just because things dont evolve like they assumed/ followed
  • #139,619
  • Mar 16, 2016 9:14am Mar 16, 2016 9:14am
Quoting Vorex
{quote} Imminent breakdown alerts lol.
vorex, why dont u share ur map and show us how perfectly you do it!! I think we all would be fascinated to hear what you have to say trading-wise

-----------------------------------------
Quoting IMARICH1
US data INLINE and slightly better than expected.......... Believe it is the same plays and levels until the FOMC........
the infaltion developments are pretty interesting. I think the intraday break down is pretty irrelevant cuz we gonna sit by 1,108x - its gonna be the flip lvl for upside I guess. hope sisse posts his map cuz Im suprised he sees any SP500 upside potential if there is no hike - that would mean there is E/U going up if no hike. I expect very very hawkish FED so I would expect very very limited upside. who knows. well see what the map is and what happens.
  • #139,620
  • Mar 16, 2016 9:40am Mar 16, 2016 9:40am
{quote} the infaltion developments are pretty interesting. I think the intraday break down is pretty irrelevant cuz we gonna sit by 1,108x - its gonna be the flip lvl for upside I guess. hope sisse posts his map cuz Im suprised he sees any SP500 upside potential if there is no hike - that would mean there is E/U going up if no hike. I expect very very hawkish FED so I would expect very very limited upside. who knows. well see what the map is and what happens. [/quote]

I see a possible test of the .097X level pre-FOMC or during as flows fill in.....However, if we get a RATE HIKE; then, I would expect a test to the .051X at very least....sisse doesn't believe the .073X will hold this time on this kind of news. I would like a rate hike to help me out of my position. Whether FED raises rates is a FLIP to me. Most believe FED won't raise; but, LABOR and WAGES are good and inline not to mention CPI, Manufacturing and Production are in line as well. Inflation is showing signs. I would see a rate increase most probable NOW than by June or July.

I do see the .108X being a FLIP area. Interesting to me as how many closes below it since the LONDON session and even in the US session so far. US EQUITIES would go up some with NO RATE increase but I believe as sisse pointed out, it may get to the 2020 area but not much more as I do not see the FED being very Dovish. Dovish in the sense they don't raise the rates. If they don't raise rates; then, I believe the language will be more about the rate increases throughout the year and Hawkish. We know ECB is not raising rates nor BOE.
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