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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #21,061
  • Edited 12:59pm Mar 13, 2016 12:40pm | Edited 12:59pm
Quoting infinitus
EW analysis EU monthly view - big picture: the EU has reached the lower bound(s) of the upsloping channel and is consolidating in a clear corrective pattern (at least for me) Corrective pattern means: we will go down sooner or later {image}


Yeah, it is still possible for us to see the lower prices.
The really bullish view will be become valid if the price are above 1,15.

Quoting infinitus
{quote} A Short History Of (Unsuccessfully) Calling A Bottom In Oil



what to say?

You inspire me with optimism.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #21,062
  • Mar 13, 2016 2:54pm Mar 13, 2016 2:54pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} and one more: ... The above results have shown that a trading strategy based around the head and shoulders chart pattern does not appear to be profitable. Whilst a small number of mean buy and sell returns are significant and in the direction predicted by the pattern, the findings are inconsistent. Such a strategy could therefore not be profitably employed by traders. ... However, one important finding was that buy trades, from head and shoulders bottoms, performed less well. In fact, negative excess returns...
Thanks for sharing, will read
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #21,063
  • Mar 13, 2016 3:32pm Mar 13, 2016 3:32pm
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Hunting High and Low
  • #21,064
  • Mar 13, 2016 9:31pm Mar 13, 2016 9:31pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{image}

Do not know what data that are, but it shows, that those traders were long the last years, when in fact they should have been short in order to make money
  • #21,065
  • Mar 13, 2016 9:35pm Mar 13, 2016 9:35pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{image}

Oil Prices Should Fall, Possibly Hard
  • #21,066
  • Mar 14, 2016 1:55am Mar 14, 2016 1:55am
UJ weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,067
  • Mar 14, 2016 2:02am Mar 14, 2016 2:02am
USDRUB weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_USD_RUB_Weekly_snapshot.png Size: 39 KB
  • #21,068
  • Mar 14, 2016 2:21am Mar 14, 2016 2:21am
http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/2016...another-round/

interesting view on EU from our friends at Elliottwave Forex
  • #21,069
  • Mar 14, 2016 3:36am Mar 14, 2016 3:36am
Quoting infinitus
USDRUB weekly {image}
Thanks Infinitus very interesting stuff you posted. Concerning USD/RUB accoring to EW what is the next wave? Or has the pattern concluded?
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #21,070
  • Mar 14, 2016 3:24pm Mar 14, 2016 3:24pm
Breaking: Russia to Start Syria Pullout on March 15, Will Maintain Presence in Tartus Port And Latakia Airbase

Putin orders start of Russian military withdrawal from Syria, says "objectives achieved"
https://www.rt.com/news/335554-putin...ia-withdrawal/

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #21,071
  • Mar 14, 2016 7:06pm Mar 14, 2016 7:06pm
Triangle forming on EU, looks like we are finally going to brake out of this range,
my bias still stands bullish in the short term, price got rejected from the 61.8 level,
further having a hard time holding support lower on 50%, which is right now,
in the near term, a move down to the bottom of the triangle looks very likely.
after that we might see what we hope for,
a bounce from the Weekly 38.2 level with a possible out brake from the triangle top,
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Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #21,072
  • Mar 15, 2016 2:20am Mar 15, 2016 2:20am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Thanks Infinitus very interesting stuff you posted. Concerning USD/RUB accoring to EW what is the next wave? Or has the pattern concluded?

Hi Manosk,

sorry for answering so late - was in the mountains yesterday


Well, Elliottwave is all about probability - so nothing is certain


When we look at the whole movement from the very low on the chart, we see, that we have an extended wave 3. Therefore it is more unlikely (but not impossible) to see an extended 5th wave.

case of "the top is in":

we can expect, that the whole movement is partly retraced. So in first step we would look for a retracement down to the red 4, or even to the pink 4. Keep in mind: this retracement does not come in a straight line. Example: it can retrace back to the red 4, then test the high again, then falls down to the pink 4.

After that, a new set of up and downs can set in to make the correction more complex.


One word of caution:

I have a hard time to find historical USDRUB charts. Without them I am a bit lost in the sea. I have only data which goes back to 1999. Can someone provide me more data/charts?

Maybe there was another movement up before 1999. In this case we may be in the following scenario:

1-2-(1-2-3-4-5)-now in 4

such a wave 4 very often retraces back to the wave 4 of one lesser degree, or into the heart of the wave 3 (point of recognition, which may be in the 55-65 range)

case of an extended wave pink 5:

in this case we have build wave 1 of 5 and are now down in wave 2 of 5. In this case also the red wave 4 would offer nice support for the wave 2 of 5



For the short term: (days to some weeks):

down from the very top:

so far, we have build two legs down. The 74.57 from 01-29-2016 may be wave A. Then a wave B up followed.

Right now we are exactly at A=C

When C would become 1.62x A, the price would be at the 38.2% retracement of the whole movement of the pink 5. And that would lead us directly to the wave red 4.

Pity is, I have no sentiment data about USDRUB


Hope that helps
  • #21,073
  • Mar 15, 2016 2:29am Mar 15, 2016 2:29am
EW on Gold weekly TF

soon we will know, if my count, which was right for such a long time, gets invalidated or not.

Ending diagonal scenario


Chance may be high, that the bottom is already in. At the bottom, we only had around 3% bulls left. In Commodities, such low readings do occur most of the time at the end of the wave 5, and not at the end of a wave 3
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,074
  • Mar 15, 2016 2:36am Mar 15, 2016 2:36am
UJ weekly TF

ideal target for the wave down seems to be the 106.63, which is the 38.2 retracement of the whole move up

The 50& retracement is around 100.7, and would offer a lot of support

In the recent wave C down we seem to be in the wave 5, or further tracing out a wave 4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,075
  • Mar 15, 2016 2:40am Mar 15, 2016 2:40am
AUDUSD

sentiment data of AUDUSD shows nearly 83% bulls. Last days it was even higher around 87%.

So time for another drop may be right
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_USD_Weekly_snapshot.png Size: 51 KB
  • #21,076
  • Mar 15, 2016 4:23am Mar 15, 2016 4:23am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Manosk, sorry for answering so late - was in the mountains yesterday Well, Elliottwave is all about probability - so nothing is certain When we look at the whole movement from the very low on the chart, we see, that we have an extended wave 3. Therefore it is more unlikely (but not impossible) to see an extended 5th wave. case of "the top is in": we can expect, that the whole movement is partly retraced. So in first step we would look for a retracement down to the red 4, or even to the pink 4. Keep in mind: this retracement does not come...
Thank you Infinitus, this is probably the best analysis I have seen on USDRUB anywhere for a long time. Respect to you.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #21,077
  • Mar 15, 2016 4:24am Mar 15, 2016 4:24am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Manosk, sorry for answering so late - was in the mountains yesterday Well, Elliottwave is all about probability - so nothing is certain When we look at the whole movement from the very low on the chart, we see, that we have an extended wave 3. Therefore it is more unlikely (but not impossible) to see an extended 5th wave. case of "the top is in": we can expect, that the whole movement is partly retraced. So in first step we would look for a retracement down to the red 4, or even to the pink 4. Keep in mind: this retracement does not come...
and no reason to apologise, I hope you enjoyed the mountains.

Just one question, where do you see the pink 5 ?
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #21,078
  • Mar 15, 2016 5:58am Mar 15, 2016 5:58am
Quoting manosk
{quote} and no reason to apologise, I hope you enjoyed the mountains. Just one question, where do you see the pink 5 ?
Ups, the pink 5 may be eventually the very top
  • #21,079
  • Edited 2:09am Mar 17, 2016 1:45am | Edited 2:09am
Quoting roughtrader
do we have bearish divergence? yes we do! a big move is coming {image}
USD bears is really in beast mode, i'm not expecting decent retrace to the upside before it touch level 95.00


Quoting andexQ
{quote} USD already Topped and level 100 already locked ... imo
95.00 is next level to be locked for downfall to occur.


Added:
USDx Weekly
Attached Image
  • #21,080
  • Mar 17, 2016 3:31am Mar 17, 2016 3:31am
Here is the Ew outlook of J. Kennedy from EWI for the Dollar Index.

Sixer
Attached Image
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