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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

Attachments: The Club!
Exit Attachments

The Club!

Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} From now on the analysis is invalid. Rethinking... Best D.P. P.S. Need Oil Analysis

WTI crude and commodity market across the board overall is bullish in my opinion,

not recommended to short ... sooner or later might break above 39.00 resistance with momentum.

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Quoting andexQ
{quote} WTI crude and commodity market across the board overall is bullish in my opinion, not recommended to short ... sooner or later might break above 39.00 resistance with momentum. {image}
Thank you very much, andexQ.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
On EURUSD

I prefer thinking of our going upwards further, as:
1/ there are no VPOCs at the areas below. All VPOCs became POCs, what means the price has been filled with volumes (accumulation completed) at those areas.
2/ it is possible that there is the W-formation to be fulfilled.

Upcoming aim is 1,15.

Best
D.P.
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Hunting High and Low
I agree with the former poster, here is something that will further give weight to your bias.
if you look at the USD, there is a Head & Shoulder pattern already broken out to the downside.
the profit objective is still very far down, and it is likely the selling will continue until the profit target is met.
this will ofcourse force the Euro into an Uptrend. head and shoulder patterns is a reversal pattern.
meaning the market is likely to compleatly reverse direction.
so from the looks of it, Euro should still be going up a lot.
there is also more factors I have found that support this theory not mentioned here.
I would say, buy Euro now and stay with it for about 2000 pips.

picture of the head and shoulder on a weekly chart,,
it is also vissible on the Daily chart..
and if you look more close,
you also can see a rising wedge pattern broken
which gives even more probability the Euro will go to the moon.
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Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
do we have bearish divergence? yes we do!
a big move is coming
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Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
Quoting andexQ
{quote} WTI crude and commodity market across the board overall is bullish in my opinion, not recommended to short ... sooner or later might break above 39.00 resistance with momentum. {image}
AndexQ, there is alternative view on Oil
the author says that it is early for us to be bullish yet.
He says that 42,23 is the main point and needs breaking through before becoming bullish.

Best
D.P.

Source - https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/CB1...nty-istiny-w1/
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Hunting High and Low
Price action is the #1 indicator and after thursday's price action its clear the euro wants to go up, next LOGICAL target is the old highs at 1.14, and 1.17, doesn't mean the market is logical though.
Trend line Trader - The Trend Is Your Friend...
I don't think it is too early to be bullish Oil, the dollar is already on it's way down, and Oil must go up in price as a result,
because they are in negative correlation to eachother... if dollar goes up Oil goes down and vice versa
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
Quoting roughtrader
I agree with the former poster, here is something that will further give weight to your bias. if you look at the USD, there is a Head & Shoulder pattern already broken out to the downside. the profit objective is still very far down, and it is likely the selling will continue until the profit target is met. this will ofcourse force the Euro into an Uptrend. head and shoulder patterns is a reversal pattern. meaning the market is likely to compleatly reverse direction. so from the looks of it, Euro should still be going up a lot. there is also more...


Quoting roughtrader
do we have bearish divergence? yes we do! a big move is coming {image}
Completely sure,
the question is - how long?

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} {quote} Completely sure, the question is - how long? Best D.P.
if you see that small horisontal line below it, that is the target for the head and shoulder pattern,
it maybe is a little sloppy line, but you can messure for your self to get it more exact.
what you do is messure from the top (head) and then vertical down to the neckline.
you then take that distance, and messure that downwards from the brakeout of the neckline.
so that would be my first target, we will see some profit taking there,
and maybe a small bounce or a big one?
but the down move could surely continue down even more after that..
or it will go up again? who knows

so if the USD will drop about that much,
we could possibly assume that the Euro will go up that much?
more or less
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
Quoting roughtrader
{quote} if you see that small horisontal line below it, that is the target for the head and shoulder pattern, it maybe is a little sloppy line, but you can messure for your self to get it more exact. what you do is messure from the top (head) and then vertical down to the neckline. you then take that distance, and messure that downwards from the brakeout of the neckline
It was rhetorical Thanks.
I mentioned that line. But the question is that 88,45 line is not "much lower" than the current level.

Best
D.P.

P.S. That is why I am awaiting for RUB's strengthening.
Hunting High and Low
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} It was rhetorical Thanks. I mentioned that line. But the question is that 88,45 line is not "much lower" than the current level. Best D.P. P.S. That is why I am awaiting for RUB's strengthening.
only about 2000 pips higher than the Euro is right now
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
Quoting roughtrader
{quote} only about 2000 pips higher than the Euro is right now
Oh, yea. That is enough.
But how low is USD/RUB about to be then?

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Oh, yea. That is enough. But how low is USD/RUB about to be then? D.P.
everything should go up against the dollar, more or less about 2000 pips,
well, let's say if everything goes according to plan,
some currencies will go up less than others. some more,
the more volatile ones is expected to reach the highest against the dollar.
and the ones not so historically volatile will go up less.
there is also other factors, such as interest rates,
other important news for each currency that could affect a particular pair be be more favorable,
Euro has been pretty volatile, also GBP and YEN, CHF has always been a safe haven when the dollar is in trouble.
AU and NZ could be seen as a safe haven, because their strong export, they can stand on their own.
the RUB will surely also rise against the dollar but there is some trouble there with US and Syria , Turkey, etc
so maybe not the best pair to trade against the dollar right now.
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
Quoting roughtrader
{quote} everything should go up against the dollar, more or less about 2000 pips, some currencies will go up less than others. some more, the more volatile ones is expected to reach the highest against the dollar. and the ones not so historically volatile will go up less. there is also other factors, such as interest rates, other important news for each currency that could affect a particular pair be be more favorable, Euro has been pretty volatile, also GBP and YEN, CHF has always been a safe haven when the dollar is in trouble. AU and NZ could...
Ok, thanks.
A little bit more - how do you estimate the time horison (from now on) for such an downfall?

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Ok, thanks. A little bit more - how do you estimate the time horison (from now on) for such an downfall? D.P.
the downfall has already begun, as you can see the fall is steep, if that pace will continue, which it could, there is so much energy (momentum) released when such pattern brakes out. so it is kinda hard to stop. I would guess we will see the target met in 3-4 weeks more or less, if there would be a pullback, then we must expect at least the double time.
but if the move is very strong, there will be no pullback..

so how this will affect the Euro for example, the Euro might not fall in the same pace as the USD at all,
it could linger in a range resisting, and then bam!, a huge brakeout,
we saw some examples on that last week.
so what Im saying, if the USD drops 500 pips in 2 days, the Euro does not have to go up the same amount at the same pace,
usually from what I have seen, it is more like a creeping death, it lingers ranging, and bam again,
I call it stair stepping up, it will surely go up if the dollar intend to go to it's target
but there is no way to know how fast. it depends on how many buyers still want to buy.
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
Quoting roughtrader
{quote} as you can see the fall is steep, if that pace will continue, which it could, there is so much energy (momentum) released when such pattern brakes out. so it is kinda hard to stop. I would guess we will see the target met in 3-4 weeks more or less, if there would be a pullback, then we must expect at least the double time. but if the move is very strong, there will be no pullback..
So, waiting and watching..

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} So, waiting and watching.. Best D.P.
yeah, the best thing is to watch the next support and see what happens.
if they can't hold, it would be pretty safe to enter short there.
otherwice, I would like to see a pullback, it will be a better entry,
there is a chance we can see the pullback begin at the nearest support.
if we will see a pullback, it will go to either the neckline, brakeout point or the main trendline.
the last one is a bit of a long shot, but not impossible.
those are great places to short, if you have the ability to trade USD that is,,
and at the same time, watch Euro or other currencies and go long in comparable levels
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
about USD and Oil correlation:

https://www.thealertinvestor.com/oil-and-the-dollar/
Quoting roughtrader
I agree with the former poster, here is something that will further give weight to your bias. if you look at the USD, there is a Head & Shoulder pattern already broken out to the downside. the profit objective is still very far down, and it is likely the selling will continue until the profit target is met. this will ofcourse force the Euro into an Uptrend. head and shoulder patterns is a reversal pattern. meaning the market is likely to compleatly reverse direction. so from the looks of it, Euro should still be going up a lot. there is also more...

Hi Roughtrader,


thanks for your analysis


One word to Head and shoulder patterns:


once the FED did a lengthy analysis of Head and Shoulder patterns, and the found, that it is not profitable


see here:


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...hmentid=927463
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