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AUD/USD

  • #96,001
  • Mar 13, 2016 1:07pm Mar 13, 2016 1:07pm
Commitments of Traders Report – Week 10 2016 ( ending 11th March)

Once again AUD bulls prevailed! Australian currency has been breaking all records. It soared up to 0.7550, the level not seen in this market since June 2015.
This week, the same pattern continued with even greater pace.
Non-commercial traders added another 9.6K new long positions and dumped 2.6K shorts at the same time. Open interest continues to rise supporting the current uptrend. This is 4th consecutive week of market taking bullish side aggressively. I expect this to continue unless we see any change in bias reported by Commitment of Traders Report.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: audusd cot.JPG Size: 199 KB
HumbleTraders
  • #96,002
  • Mar 13, 2016 2:26pm Mar 13, 2016 2:26pm
resistance and 1,61 1,75 fib
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_D1.gif Size: 245 KB
  • #96,003
  • Mar 13, 2016 2:36pm Mar 13, 2016 2:36pm
Right on the spot analysis, GFSCapital - totally agree with you.

was just thinking to post a similar comment then saw the valuable ones made earlier.

COT report is quite useful as it shows positioning or speculative and commercial traders.

Speculative ones are usually trend traders and aim for big trends. These trends are rare but when they get established they can last for weeks, months and so on.

Therefore is their positioning shifts from negative to positive as it was the case with AUD it is worth noting.

It's remarcable they positioned themselves long on 16-Feb-16 and then price broke out on the upside just two weeks later (and actually in a matter of days price made quite an impressive up move).

so if non-commercials are long then I personally am more enclined to go for long trades only (confirmed with price action).

maybe price seems high but why fight it as it might go even higher.

we'll see how this unfolds as the future becomes present.

regards all,

have a good week,

best,
  • #96,004
  • Mar 13, 2016 2:43pm Mar 13, 2016 2:43pm
Quoting BGrigore
Right on the spot analysis, GFSCapital - totally agree with you. was just thinking to post a similar comment then saw the valuable ones made earlier. COT report is quite useful as it shows positioning or speculative and commercial traders. Speculative ones are usually trend traders and aim for big trends. These trends are rare but when they get established they can last for weeks, months and so on. Therefore is their positioning shifts from negative to positive as it was the case with AUD it is worth noting. It's remarcable they positioned themselves...
Correct. The same was true many times before when Non-Commercial traders positioned themselves weeks before the price reacted. Often despite the markets having opposite bias.
As an excellent example, google How Commitments of Traders report predicted USDJPY decline.

Regards
HumbleTraders
  • #96,005
  • Mar 13, 2016 5:07pm Mar 13, 2016 5:07pm
Quoting gfscapital
Commitments of Traders Report Week 10 2016 ( ending 11th March) Once again AUD bulls prevailed! Australian currency has been breaking all records. It soared up to 0.7550, the level not seen in this market since June 2015. This week, the same pattern continued with even greater pace. Non-commercial traders added another 9.6K new long positions and dumped 2.6K shorts at the same time. Open interest continues to rise supporting the current uptrend. This is 4th consecutive week of market taking bullish side aggressively. I expect this to continue unless...
.86?

Thats a very optimistic outlook on the AUD.

It could be if fundamentals align.

How do I get the Commitment of Traders Report indicator on my charts?
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,006
  • Mar 13, 2016 10:10pm Mar 13, 2016 10:10pm
AUDUSD Buy i guess. Lets see...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #96,007
  • Mar 13, 2016 10:14pm Mar 13, 2016 10:14pm
gonna wait till europe opens before making a call on this. asia could be playing catch up with the market.
  • #96,008
  • Mar 13, 2016 10:22pm Mar 13, 2016 10:22pm
Not thinking too much [email protected]
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  • #96,009
  • Mar 14, 2016 1:48am Mar 14, 2016 1:48am
Chances of RBA cash rate cut fade despite strong $A

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...#ixzz42rDhWeG1
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #96,010
  • Mar 14, 2016 1:57am Mar 14, 2016 1:57am
Quoting blue_z_zz
Chances of RBA cash rate cut fade despite strong $A Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...#ixzz42rDhWeG1
Looks like time to short again
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,011
  • Mar 14, 2016 2:47am Mar 14, 2016 2:47am
Weekly Chart Analysis – 13 March 2016

AUDUSD: 30min – 4h – Daily view
Aussie had an excellent run to the upside again! The bullishness prevailed and AUDUSD closed the week at 0.7550, the level not seen since June 2015! Looking Commitment of Traders report this week, I see that the bullish bias continues with even more aggression.
I was expecting at least some correction towards former resistance but Aussie just kept printing new highs every day. At this stage there is no reason to believe that AUD could reverse this trend unless something significant happens. Having said that, I expect the pullback from the current levels.
Looking at daily charts, the current level of 0.7550 was a major support level in the past. This could be the case once again. We could see AUDUSD responding to this level this time around.
Bears could see current levels based on the fact – this is an important resistance. The logical target lays around 0.7320, another important support – former resistance.
Bulls could wait for 0.7320 to enter more longs. These positions could be established for the long term ripping the benefits of carry trade.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD INTRADAY.JPG Size: 315 KB
HumbleTraders
  • #96,012
  • Mar 14, 2016 2:58am Mar 14, 2016 2:58am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Looks like time to short again
I guess your right paul I was waiting for the 0.7620 or a break below 07420
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #96,013
  • Mar 14, 2016 4:24am Mar 14, 2016 4:24am
Quoting gfscapital
....
Say that was taken from FXSTREET:

http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wee...ew/2016/03/08/
  • #96,014
  • Mar 14, 2016 4:28am Mar 14, 2016 4:28am
Quoting ruma29
{quote} Say that was taken from FXSTREET: http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wee...ew/2016/03/08/
it looks like he was the author on fxstreet
  • #96,015
  • Mar 14, 2016 5:11am Mar 14, 2016 5:11am
Quoting blue_z_zz
{quote} I guess your right paul I was waiting for the 0.7620 or a break below 07420
When these type of articles come out just do the opposite does the trick for me.
I cant see the rally lasting too much longer and definitely not to .86 maybe .78 tops, and doubt it will even get that far.

Last year when the aud bottomed at .75 it rallied back up and peaked at .81631. There were so many traders talking the aussie will head back up to .90.
I was the only very few that said it will hit .72 by the end of the year and it did.

I now say it will hit .65 and very possible touch into the .50's.

This is the way the aussie economy works. Goes around in cycles. Cant have a boom if you dont have a recession.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,016
  • Mar 14, 2016 5:24am Mar 14, 2016 5:24am
The sentiment on C-Trader has been like this for weeks.
Attached Image
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #96,017
  • Mar 14, 2016 5:47am Mar 14, 2016 5:47am
Quoting ruma29
{quote} Say that was taken from FXSTREET: http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wee...ew/2016/03/08/
Hi
Same chart indeed but a bit earlier. I publish my analysis on FXstreet too.
HumbleTraders
  • #96,018
  • Mar 14, 2016 5:49am Mar 14, 2016 5:49am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} When these type of articles come out just do the opposite does the trick for me. I cant see the rally lasting too much longer and definitely not to .86 maybe .78 tops, and doubt it will even get that far. Last year when the aud bottomed at .75 it rallied back up and peaked at .81631. There were so many traders talking the aussie will head back up to .90. I was the only very few that said it will hit .72 by the end of the year and it did. I now say it will hit .65 and very possible touch into the .50's. This is the way the aussie economy...
I agree its due a correction after this run up but I don't share your bearish view if this commodity rally is for real then your bearish sentiment is not valid
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #96,019
  • Mar 14, 2016 6:16am Mar 14, 2016 6:16am
The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose to a three-month high last week following weeks of sideways trading. The improved sentiment towards commodities was also reflected in the weekly update on money manager positioning. During the week ending March 8 they were net buyers of all the three major sectors of energy, metals and agriculture. [Comments from a Commodity Trader earlier today]
  • #96,020
  • Mar 14, 2016 6:41am Mar 14, 2016 6:41am
This is interesting
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/for...l/?pair=audusd
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
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