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AUD/USD

  • #95,981
  • Mar 10, 2016 7:28pm Mar 10, 2016 7:28pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Agree, as long we don't get a new high today
Signs are there mate but confirmation is needed and it comes by a break of -7420-30 level
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,982
  • Mar 11, 2016 10:39am Mar 11, 2016 10:39am
AU has been really bullish this month. but seems exhausted near 0.758 level which is what the buyers wanted to reach. It might go few more pips up and then again go back to 0.738 level. If anybody wants to risk considering au is over bought then sell at tops till it reaches 0.738 level. SL should be above 0.7620-7630
Believe in your thesis and stick to the plan, don't get scared with moves
  • #95,983
  • Mar 11, 2016 8:56pm Mar 11, 2016 8:56pm
Quoting akash14
AU has been really bullish this month. but seems exhausted near 0.758 level which is what the buyers wanted to reach. It might go few more pips up and then again go back to 0.738 level. If anybody wants to risk considering au is over bought then sell at tops till it reaches 0.738 level. SL should be above 0.7620-7630
Good truth in your statement. (Without any intention to undermine the potential unknowns from the market)
The aud has climbed 500pips in 10 trading days without much of a pullback. Experience tells me that it's inevitable some retracement will surely happen, and at 500 pips up it should possibly be due. It's not as if there's been a major fundamental change resulting in a total revaluation of the currency..the recent move has been mostly technical.
Looking for a 38.2% down to mid-73s and then see what happens from there. We should get confirmation on Monday if the current top holds and aud goes down below 7530 (previous week's high).
  • #95,984
  • Mar 11, 2016 10:12pm Mar 11, 2016 10:12pm
The latest data from China should now put a dampener on things...

Industrial Production 5.4% y/y YTD

  1. expected 5.6%, prior 5.9%

Retail Sales 10.12% YTD y/y

  1. expected 10.8%, previous was 11.1%

Fixed Asset Investment (Excl. Rural) YTD 10.2% y/y

  1. expected 9.5%, prior 11.1%

Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #95,985
  • Mar 11, 2016 10:19pm Mar 11, 2016 10:19pm
thanks guys your analysis has been very valuable in shorting gbpaud, the beast put in the realm of dragons
  • #95,986
  • Mar 11, 2016 10:20pm Mar 11, 2016 10:20pm
Quoting ell3
{quote} The aud has climbed 500pips in 10 trading days without much of a pullback. Experience tells me that it's inevitable some retracement will surely happen, and at 500 pips up it should possibly be due. It's not as if there's been a major fundamental change resulting in a total revaluation of the currency.
I think this move has been 70% due to a surge in equities globally (See Dow Jones index https://www.tradingview.com/x/1WQtoKJ2/), 10% commodities and 20% who the fuck knows.

Once (I should say if) US equities flip, then we will see JPY pairs tank, including this one.

Alternatively, the global recovery is in full swing and it's back to parity within the next 12 months.
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #95,987
  • Mar 11, 2016 10:27pm Mar 11, 2016 10:27pm
Quoting AussieForexM
{quote} I think this move has been 70% due to a surge in equities globally (See Dow Jones index https://www.tradingview.com/x/1WQtoKJ2/), 10% commodities and 20% who the fuck knows. Once (I should say if) US equities flip, then we will see JPY pairs tank, including this one. Alternatively, the global recovery is in full swing and it's back to parity within the next 12 months.
Let's give it few days to sort itself 1-2 days then the answer will follow price action, no need to speculate reducing risk
  • #95,988
  • Mar 11, 2016 10:50pm Mar 11, 2016 10:50pm
Quoting AussieForexM
{quote} I think this move has been 70% due to a surge in equities globally (See Dow Jones index https://www.tradingview.com/x/1WQtoKJ2/), 10% commodities and 20% who the fuck knows. Once (I should say if) US equities flip, then we will see JPY pairs tank, including this one. Alternatively, the global recovery is in full swing and it's back to parity within the next 12 months.
"global recovery is in full swing"
On the contrary all the signs point deeper declines ahead both in China and Japan.EU can't even get any inflation going let alone create any jobs.US job market also vulnerable from global slow down and FEds raising IR is real catastrophic problem for emerging economies which own their debt in USD.
Rocky waves ahead. Based on what I have been reading RBA wants Aussie dollar at 65 and at 75 its already having a negative impact.
We are in currency war environment where cheap is good.
Can we see 71-70 by the end of March? Sure!If not lower
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #95,989
  • Mar 11, 2016 11:03pm Mar 11, 2016 11:03pm
I must admit, this pair was stronger than I thought.
coming up for a retest soon...?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #95,990
  • Mar 12, 2016 12:37am Mar 12, 2016 12:37am
Quoting AussieForexM
The latest data from China should now put a dampener on things... Industrial Production 5.4% y/y YTD expected 5.6%, prior 5.9% Retail Sales 10.12% YTD y/y expected 10.8%, previous was 11.1% Fixed Asset Investment (Excl. Rural) YTD 10.2% y/y expected 9.5%, prior 11.1%
Not much talk of this during the week, which is massive

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ch...-idUSKCN0WC0MD
  • #95,991
  • Mar 12, 2016 2:47am Mar 12, 2016 2:47am
Quoting Ill-b-back
I must admit, this pair was stronger than I thought. coming up for a retest soon...? {image} {image}
I am almost certain it will reach 0.7780 sooner than later.
  • #95,992
  • Mar 12, 2016 3:07am Mar 12, 2016 3:07am
Quoting dianajs
{quote} I am almost certain it will reach 0.7780 sooner than later.
probably, great area to look for PA reasons to sell. Just need to clear 1 more hurdle first around the 7650-60 area
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #95,993
  • Mar 12, 2016 5:22am Mar 12, 2016 5:22am
Quoting tehuringa
{quote} Not much talk of this during the week, which is massive http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ch...-idUSKCN0WC0MD
Thanks for sharing, worth a read in my humble opinion.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #95,994
  • Mar 12, 2016 5:23am Mar 12, 2016 5:23am
Quoting dianajs
{quote} I am almost certain it will reach 0.7780 sooner than later.
Care to share what you are basing your opinion on?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #95,995
  • Mar 12, 2016 5:46am Mar 12, 2016 5:46am
don't know what many other people think about AUD, I did have a sell at 0.7573, closed out before weekend for +2 or so... will look to re enter on further analysis, and will hold until these levels... wait for PA to confirm and a few more signals, ill update later on this week should anything develop
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #95,996
  • Mar 12, 2016 9:48am Mar 12, 2016 9:48am
Quoting dianajs
{quote} I am almost certain it will reach 0.7780 sooner than later.
Becareful not to be too confident in that...almost all recent rallies in the aud have been ended by a sudden, sharp fall. Reiterating imo that fundamentally nothing suggests a change in trend to the downside. Not saying 7780 won't happen,but no one knows for sure what's next! Good luck in the week ahead everyone!
  • #95,997
  • Mar 12, 2016 2:07pm Mar 12, 2016 2:07pm
Quoting Don96
don't know what many other people think about AUD, I did have a sell at 0.7573, closed out before weekend for +2 or so... will look to re enter on further analysis, and will hold until these levels... wait for PA to confirm and a few more signals, ill update later on this week should anything develop {image}
Good idea to sell. Now the price is at the highest point of the upward trend on the H4. After a little the flat, is expected to fall for the correction and possible continuation of the falling trend of older, lower than 0.70100
  • #95,998
  • Mar 12, 2016 9:28pm Mar 12, 2016 9:28pm
guy....i have sell at point 0.7547 and also 0.7497 AUD/USD so how ?? any can help ?? stop loss should put at where ?? are AUD/USD STILL WILL BULLISH TO 0.8300 !?
  • #95,999
  • Mar 13, 2016 10:27am Mar 13, 2016 10:27am
Hey, all. The forex weekly outlook is live on the bog here: http://www.forexmademillionaire.com/...ook-3-13-2016/

It's a slightly new (and longer) format. I've outlined a AUD/USD trade to start the week off complete with entry, stop, and target. That's on top of the analysis for five other pairs.

Woot!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #96,000
  • Mar 13, 2016 10:41am Mar 13, 2016 10:41am
hi guys , i was goofing around with ehlers indicators and come up with simple strategy & looks profitable to me . what do u think ?
1)buy if "33indicator" is near 1 & sell if its near 0 !
2)dont trade when hurst indicator is below 0.5 (close the trade if there's a open one)
& dont close the trades unless hurst indicator say so or there a trade in opposite direction
here s what it looke like on AUDUSD 60min chart (it has both choppy & trendy moves).
p.s: i think with optimizing the indicators & considering price action it could be legit.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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