I appreciate your disruption. You are a credit to this discussion. And Divergence too is to be commended for running this thread in a way that it attracts the attention of quality people such as yourself and the other regular members.
- #10,781
- Mar 10, 2016 8:20pm Mar 10, 2016 8:20pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Trading in the Zone | 1,766 Posts
- #10,783
- Mar 11, 2016 2:19am Mar 11, 2016 2:19am
- | Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,392 Posts
For the past six months or so I somehow got off of that path. At some level I was aware of being off of that path...
.I was making a lot more $ trading almost a decade ago & my "bad habit", so to speak, is reliance on very small stops, allowing very low $ risk for relatively (at least for FF) high position size. So it brings me back to the question I keep asking myself, which is as to how I want to trade through my '60s, now that I am no longer in the 1960s...
I think the time has come to stop watching the market tick by tick - essential for my present trading style - but I have said that SO many times before... I need a Trading Plan - some structure - to actually make this happen.
This is what I will be contemplating as I fly across the Atlantic next Wednesday, and during the days that follow under the hot, tropical sun.
- #10,784
- Mar 11, 2016 2:57am Mar 11, 2016 2:57am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: NQ eta moi lybov... | 3,030 Posts
For my own two penneth. Revisiting this thread after being absent for so long has been a god send.
I was away from trading, almost entirely for about 18 months, having been involved with business elsewhere. I picked up where i left off about 6 months ago now.
Even if my method differs to others here, the psychological and mental obstacles are still the same.
There have been some truly inspirational inputs from several traders on here and this has really galvanised my approach. I have been 'tweaking' for this last 6 months, trying to determine my exact criteria and how i want to trade. I have determined many things in this time as to what suits my mental capacity and what doesn't.
I spent thousands of hours studying Harold's original flag trading method, but the losing trades prompted me to study Elliott Wave to try to begin to better understand or explain why some work and some do not.
Again, i put thousands of hours into this new direction, learning tonnes about market phases and cycles along the way. It was only when i discovered how to combine Fibonacci levels alongside EW that it all fell into place. This was still not enough however. Fear was still my enemy. I needed to overcome this.
That's where this thread has been of most use to me. Finding an edge to trade small timescales has been the turning point, but even so, a new set of problems developed. I still found that large volume of trades above overall success rates was undesirable to my pscyhe.
Finally i have now combined both methods to (so far) to huge success in the last few days. Profitability has been with me for some time, but of course, it's impossible to gain the confidence required whilst constantly 'tweaking' (as much as i have been), to make it really worthwhile... i'm talking more about defining my own 'edge'
I do not think anyone is particularly interested in my charts especially as they are becoming more complex and more EW based, but i will perhaps give one example in case any lurkers are interested;
This is from the Dow yesterday;
See how much easier it is to have the confidence when things like this line up. After determining that we have just had a corrective abc move, we can look to get heavily short. The break out of the channel confirmed the move was over with wave C being exactly 161.8% of wave A. People think you are crazy when you can pick a turning point almost to the pip, (although i have learnt that it is still far better to wait for further confirmation, before taking the trade). Predicting is the first part, confirmation is when the confidence req'd takes hold.
Trading it as a 123 from the top, i ran this short to a fresh low, that was 88 points with initial 15 pip risk and in my mind, at least, a high probability outcome.
Ok.... just to further the cause about predicting turning points to the pip, in case it still sounds a little unbelievable, here was the UsdCad yesterday;
The fib levels are of waves 0-3, extended from end of wave 4, Standard procedure is that wave 5 (end of cycle) will hit the 61.8% extension. This is easy to see with an ending diagonal, as is the case in the chart.
The result;
I was away from trading, almost entirely for about 18 months, having been involved with business elsewhere. I picked up where i left off about 6 months ago now.
Even if my method differs to others here, the psychological and mental obstacles are still the same.
There have been some truly inspirational inputs from several traders on here and this has really galvanised my approach. I have been 'tweaking' for this last 6 months, trying to determine my exact criteria and how i want to trade. I have determined many things in this time as to what suits my mental capacity and what doesn't.
I spent thousands of hours studying Harold's original flag trading method, but the losing trades prompted me to study Elliott Wave to try to begin to better understand or explain why some work and some do not.
Again, i put thousands of hours into this new direction, learning tonnes about market phases and cycles along the way. It was only when i discovered how to combine Fibonacci levels alongside EW that it all fell into place. This was still not enough however. Fear was still my enemy. I needed to overcome this.
That's where this thread has been of most use to me. Finding an edge to trade small timescales has been the turning point, but even so, a new set of problems developed. I still found that large volume of trades above overall success rates was undesirable to my pscyhe.
Finally i have now combined both methods to (so far) to huge success in the last few days. Profitability has been with me for some time, but of course, it's impossible to gain the confidence required whilst constantly 'tweaking' (as much as i have been), to make it really worthwhile... i'm talking more about defining my own 'edge'
I do not think anyone is particularly interested in my charts especially as they are becoming more complex and more EW based, but i will perhaps give one example in case any lurkers are interested;
This is from the Dow yesterday;
See how much easier it is to have the confidence when things like this line up. After determining that we have just had a corrective abc move, we can look to get heavily short. The break out of the channel confirmed the move was over with wave C being exactly 161.8% of wave A. People think you are crazy when you can pick a turning point almost to the pip, (although i have learnt that it is still far better to wait for further confirmation, before taking the trade). Predicting is the first part, confirmation is when the confidence req'd takes hold.
Trading it as a 123 from the top, i ran this short to a fresh low, that was 88 points with initial 15 pip risk and in my mind, at least, a high probability outcome.
Ok.... just to further the cause about predicting turning points to the pip, in case it still sounds a little unbelievable, here was the UsdCad yesterday;
The fib levels are of waves 0-3, extended from end of wave 4, Standard procedure is that wave 5 (end of cycle) will hit the 61.8% extension. This is easy to see with an ending diagonal, as is the case in the chart.
The result;
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
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- #10,795
- Mar 11, 2016 9:33am Mar 11, 2016 9:33am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Trading in the Zone | 1,766 Posts
