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AUDUSD Trading Pit

  • #361
  • Mar 11, 2016 12:55am Mar 11, 2016 12:55am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} There must be something else. Because all that mentioned doesn't push the AUD back. Something fishy is happening. I know markets are irrational, but this is stupid, not irrational. As a trend trader I don't understand bull action at these levels. Just don't get it.
I don't try and understand it, just accept it. Same thing happened in April & early May last year, Feb & March 2014 etc.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #362
  • Mar 11, 2016 2:28am Mar 11, 2016 2:28am
Quoting dab
{quote} I don't try and understand it, just accept it. Same thing happened in April & early May last year, Feb & March 2014 etc.
You must understand, because you make big financial decisions.
Those time were different. The overall fundamental economical outlook wasn't so negative as it is now. That is why I'm surprised at the bull side. The bulls are kamikaze in my opinion.
  • #363
  • Mar 11, 2016 6:46am Mar 11, 2016 6:46am
Returning to FF after some time away and I'll be using the forum to put my thoughts down as a home work. As it stands, I have the audusd pair in focus. As long as audusd remains bullish I'll be playing it from the long side. My first level of interest is around the 0.7470 mark [just for today].
  • #364
  • Mar 11, 2016 8:51am Mar 11, 2016 8:51am
AUD is the most difficult pair to predict and manipulated by "banks".
  • #365
  • Mar 11, 2016 11:15am Mar 11, 2016 11:15am
agree with both dab and cold chisel.
trading has a lot to the with philosophy as well as fundamentals and technicals.
information/data is the essence of the universe. strings (quantum physics) are the data. everything even nothing is made of data.
there are things we do not understand because lack of information and things understand we have sufficient data to make conclusions.
as a human we always in search of explanation of things/events because that need is in our essence and it is needed for our biological survival as a specie.
we can follow the market as it is, looking at the traces they leave by reading the chart. we also may try to find explanations, reason why market behaved the same way it did and we refer to fundamental analysis.
so which one is better? that is a question of personal preference and taste - follow whichever you are good at.
As Above, So Below
  • #366
  • Mar 11, 2016 8:42pm Mar 11, 2016 8:42pm
Quoting redalert
With iron ore and coal being Australia's biggest export, roughly accounting for almost half of our exported 'goods'. The 20% spike in iron ore is what caused the 400 pip move combined with favourable AU GDP figures, a bit of a freak jump. Ore peaked at $63 a ton, back down to about $57 today (the chart looks very similar to the currency). Word on the street is that the ore spike was caused by China's iron mills forced closure for a week, so they replenished their stocks. I also read that China said this price was unsustainable long term (months)...
This... from the iron ore highs of U.S. $180/tonne to $40/tonne is a change of around 78%. When you consider the correlation that the AUD has shown with iron ore over the years, a drop from U.S. $1.10 to $0.74 still has a lot of downside.
  • #367
  • Mar 14, 2016 3:06pm Mar 14, 2016 3:06pm
Quoting tashkent
agree with both dab and cold chisel. trading has a lot to the with philosophy as well as fundamentals and technicals. information/data is the essence of the universe. strings (quantum physics) are the data. everything even nothing is made of data. there are things we do not understand because lack of information and things understand we have sufficient data to make conclusions. as a human we always in search of explanation of things/events because that need is in our essence and it is needed for our biological survival as a specie. we can follow...
Agree.

For me my bias is obviously technical. Fundamentals have value but I think too much lag and you can never know all the information. Even the RBA who have expressed their view that A/U should be lower are often putting a positive spin on something eg global economy as confidence is part of the puzzle and without it who would invest in Australia?

An old thread I followed was Australian Bear Raid - inactive since 2013 but the OP seemed to know his fundamentals. I'm just not sure on how he went with his timing - I hope it's just a case of he's made so much money he no longer needs to post here.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #368
  • Mar 14, 2016 3:14pm Mar 14, 2016 3:14pm
I remain short as I unfortunately have since just above 72c. I even stuffed up my highest entry (7580), closing it at 7579 after doing some further study in daily RSI extremes and attempting to replace the position closer to the 7594 high with slightly smaller size to help me last even longer if price continues up. I have been able to close several positions for smallish profits on the retrace down to 7492 and remain confident of overall profit when there is bigger pullback or reversal. Will continue to add shorts if price goes back up, following my plan for price moves in either direction. Happy trading all!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #369
  • Mar 14, 2016 9:05pm Mar 14, 2016 9:05pm
Quoting dab
I remain short as I unfortunately have since just above 72c. I even stuffed up my highest entry (7580), closing it at 7579 after doing some further study in daily RSI extremes and attempting to replace the position closer to the 7594 high with slightly smaller size to help me last even longer if price continues up. I have been able to close several positions for smallish profits on the retrace down to 7492 and remain confident of overall profit when there is bigger pullback or reversal. Will continue to add shorts if price goes back up, following...
hi dab,
i think you have been doing excellent job with managing the trades. not everybody can survive such unexpected moves we had with very little retracement.
unfortunately i am not feeling too well lately and can't post too much.
i am also short aud. so far the highest entry is from 7579. also short audchf and long ea. pretty happy with these positions.
expecting brutal sell off, but do not know when, maybe started, maybe will go more higher before that.
take care and trade safe.
As Above, So Below
  • #370
  • Mar 15, 2016 1:17am Mar 15, 2016 1:17am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} hi dab, i think you have been doing excellent job with managing the trades. not everybody can survive such unexpected moves we had with very little retracement. unfortunately i am not feeling too well lately and can't post too much. i am also short aud. so far the highest entry is from 7579. also short audchf and long ea. pretty happy with these positions. expecting brutal sell off, but do not know when, maybe started, maybe will go more higher before that. take care and trade safe.
Thanks, hope the not feeling well is nothing too serious or long lasting.

With FOMC & Aus Employment data both scheduled for Thursday (my time) we should at least get a decisive move one way or the other (unless of course they are pushing in opposite directions and for my trading if it's decisive one way and back to where started that's not terrible.)
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #371
  • Mar 15, 2016 2:50am Mar 15, 2016 2:50am
Quoting dab
{quote} Thanks, hope the not feeling well is nothing too serious or long lasting. With FOMC & Aus Employment data both scheduled for Thursday (my time) we should at least get a decisive move one way or the other (unless of course they are pushing in opposite directions and for my trading if it's decisive one way and back to where started that's not terrible.)
http://www.ig.com/au/indices-news/20...0?CHID=9&SM=TW
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #372
  • Mar 15, 2016 4:19am Mar 15, 2016 4:19am
I am in a buy lets see where it wants to go
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #373
  • Mar 15, 2016 4:40am Mar 15, 2016 4:40am
I am short 5 lots @ 0.74822 with SL 0.7535 I think it's heading for 0.73XX in the next 8 hours
  • #374
  • Mar 15, 2016 5:07am Mar 15, 2016 5:07am
Quoting MitchL
I am short 5 lots @ 0.74822 with SL 0.7535 I think it's heading for 0.73XX in the next 8 hours
I won't be complaining if it does but I think your timing is unlikely. 60+ pips in 8 hours is decent and would have to go through 7390 to 7430 support zone seen on the 4 hour chart.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #375
  • Mar 15, 2016 8:14am Mar 15, 2016 8:14am
We still don't have a lower low yet. Retail sales in U.S. decline...Bad for U.S.D. Direction of the pair still undecided at this point. Needs to go below .7427 and close under to have a lower low on H4
  • #376
  • Mar 15, 2016 9:14am Mar 15, 2016 9:14am
Order pending buy .745 SL .741. Can't watch, gotta sleep
  • #377
  • Mar 15, 2016 9:16am Mar 15, 2016 9:16am
bear is making baby steps and it is likely that we will have 2 conseq bearish candles after a long time.
IF we reached the top, THEN this could be a possible scenario. just using imagination, no reason.
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As Above, So Below
  • #378
  • Mar 15, 2016 11:08am Mar 15, 2016 11:08am
market movements say long at this point of time, till we touch our recent high... Excuse a newbies word... Love your work Tashkent
  • #379
  • Mar 15, 2016 12:04pm Mar 15, 2016 12:04pm
Which market movements? Even if you are scalping, safer to go for a short trade atm.

KP

Quoting waveafterwav
market movements say long at this point of time, till we touch our recent high... Excuse a newbies word... Love your work Tashkent
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #380
  • Mar 15, 2016 12:28pm Mar 15, 2016 12:28pm
Quoting KeenPips
Which market movements? Even if you are scalping, safer to go for a short trade atm. KP {quote}
Fundamentals are kicking in tipping the currency, there is no news rest of week that is likely to push it to a new high with everything priced in... But this pair hasn't been rational... For a good night sleep with an opened position, i am with you KP
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