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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #54,081
  • Mar 10, 2016 11:16am Mar 10, 2016 11:16am
Hi NoDak64

Today was a major major news day, CB’s and big players owned the battlefield today, we little ants must be careful not to get crushed, sometimes the best trade is aside.

Your execution and reasoning using the impulses seem to be in line with what I understand here, it was just that it was bad timing with all the giants trampling about.

The thread does say to avoid major risk events and CB fights unless you have plenty of F/cap to use.

better luck next time

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #54,082
  • Mar 10, 2016 11:37am Mar 10, 2016 11:37am
Quoting phil13
Hi NoDak64 Today was a major major news day, CBs and big players owned the battlefield today, we little ants must be careful not to get crushed, sometimes the best trade is aside. Your execution and reasoning using the impulses seem to be in line with what I understand here, it was just that it was bad timing with all the giants trampling about. The thread does say to avoid major risk events and CB fights unless you have plenty of F/cap to use. better luck next time regards Phil.
Thank you Phil, I will take this afternoon to study what are the important news and what is fodder. When reading through the thread much was mentioned about FOMC and other acronyms that are just abstract names to me. I will research more. Not good to get caught unprepared first day...
  • #54,083
  • Mar 10, 2016 11:57am Mar 10, 2016 11:57am
Quoting NoDak64
{quote} Thank you Phil, I will take this afternoon to study what are the important news and what is fodder. When reading through the thread much was mentioned about FOMC and other acronyms that are just abstract names to me. I will research more. Not good to get caught unprepared first day...
Hi NoDak64

if you look at the FF calendar, basically all the red news is of potential high risk event. experience will show you what you need to avoid more than other things on there but it is a good start to avoid the red news at first.

the folders next to the news event will briefly explain what it means and how to view the event figures.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #54,084
  • Mar 10, 2016 12:01pm Mar 10, 2016 12:01pm
Quoting NoDak64
{quote} Thank you Phil, I will take this afternoon to study what are the important news and what is fodder. When reading through the thread much was mentioned about FOMC and other acronyms that are just abstract names to me. I will research more. Not good to get caught unprepared first day...
virgin?

http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php

those marked red.
also read the info about the event and search for deep info.
talk to market peeps. MARKET PEEPS HOR, not robots.

Your scout too big.

regards
  • #54,085
  • Mar 10, 2016 12:03pm Mar 10, 2016 12:03pm
Quoting fti
{quote} virgin? http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php those marked red. also read the info about the event and search for deep info. talk to market peeps. MARKET PEEPS HOR, not robots. Your scout too big. regards

hi fti

SNAP....

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #54,086
  • Mar 10, 2016 12:53pm Mar 10, 2016 12:53pm
Quoting fti
{quote} virgin? http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php those marked red. also read the info about the event and search for deep info. talk to market peeps. MARKET PEEPS HOR, not robots. Your scout too big. regards
I will do this thank you. I had scout set so a 200 pip drawdown would be a 1 percent loss. That is still too big? I will adjust.
  • #54,087
  • Mar 10, 2016 6:00pm Mar 10, 2016 6:00pm
Quoting NoDak64
{quote} I will do this thank you. I had scout set so a 200 pip drawdown would be a 1 percent loss. That is still too big? I will adjust.
of cuz that is big my fren.

you are already at 50% of capital utilization at ur first scout. cal how much leverage u be using when u rescuse/attack?

if u use 1,3,9 rescue, u be at 6.5x leverage, daily atr will put u at 10% ballpark capital loss.

common dude, u be equivalent to operating like a US shale company. u know what's happening to them now??

tip: they have no available contigency capability. only way out mostly is chap 11 or wait for sharks to eat them up. buy some shale stock?? upside is huge, very huge. u only need pray PRAY that OPEC be a nice boy. praying makes for a good gamble. very entertaining, only tt u need pay with principal loss. well unless u have lots foreign cap to play. do u need to pray for ur positions?
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #54,088
  • Mar 10, 2016 8:01pm Mar 10, 2016 8:01pm
Quoting Jacque
{quote} of cuz that is big my fren. you are already at 50% of capital utilization at ur first scout. cal how much leverage u be using when u rescuse/attack? if u use 1,3,9 rescue, u be at 6.5x leverage, daily atr will put u at 10% ballpark capital loss. common dude, u be equivalent to operating like a US shale company. u know what's happening to them now?? tip: they have no available contigency capability. only way out mostly is chap 11 or wait for sharks to eat them up. buy some shale stock?? upside is huge, very huge. u only need pray PRAY that...
I know all about shale that's what my username is. North Dakota, spent 4 years working during oil boom. Was most wasteful things I've ever seen when the Times were good. Thanks for the explanation on size. I will half my scout.
  • #54,089
  • Mar 11, 2016 6:49am Mar 11, 2016 6:49am
Quoting NoDak64
{quote} I know all about shale that's what my username is. North Dakota, spent 4 years working during oil boom. Was most wasteful things I've ever seen when the Times were good. Thanks for the explanation on size. I will half my scout.
ok, so u know abt shale. so u know high leverage will kill u in bad times. u can do ur sums. i dont know where you are in ur trading journey, but i am sure none of us here yet is able handle high leverage and still remain mentally able to manage the portfolio with the exception of fti. but even for him, if i may be so bold to speak for him, he would choose not to use it for elevated period of time or even use it at all. and he would be using it from the basis that he has 10mio in the bank but only depo 100k with broker due to credit risk.

even at half ur scout size, i will not consider buying ur business. is extreme risky. 25% capital upfront already on scout. no contigency capacity. ur rescue might just blow u up.

is ants work.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #54,090
  • Mar 11, 2016 7:27am Mar 11, 2016 7:27am
okok, no need learn to trade anymore. now we have computer trader aldy.

http://www.theguardian.com/technolog...pion-lee-sedol
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #54,091
  • Mar 11, 2016 5:38pm Mar 11, 2016 5:38pm
Dear jacgue, you must admit that those numbers are just your (s) at best :-)
  • #54,092
  • Mar 11, 2016 9:26pm Mar 11, 2016 9:26pm
Quoting inuit
Dear jacgue, you must admit that those numbers are just your (s) at best :-)
hihi inuit. which numbers are mine?
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #54,093
  • Edited 1:47am Mar 12, 2016 12:38am | Edited 1:47am
Quoting NoDak64
Hello all, I had my first live trading day this morning, I would like to post my thought process and hear critiques. I have been studying this thread constantly. I am up to page 700. Today I see that I still don't grasp it. I woke after the first big down move, checked 3 kgds and had no bias, but impulse was down so my bias was down I entered short after the bearish candle, in my mind I was thinking the small move up was a retracement and the down impulse would continue, I had doubts though, I was scared that the retracement should have been bigger...
Hi, NoDak64,
just my take,
Draghi was talking that day, so there is fundamental cause for such volatility, and also when there is fundamental events, usually such market condition can impulse in both direction, as you have seen, so i would not have short the top, just my 2 cents, i find the best practise for myself after the closed out flipped long, is to either wait for retrace to get long again, or just call it a day, let the market cool off and reassess the market tomorrow when everyone has cooled off. stepping in front of such a strong move is a bad idea. in summary, you are trading into counter impulse, caused by fundamentals and news. what you see there, at the pin bar where u put a short, is the quiet before the storm. its because there are alot of stops up, people anticipating the market to turn, i.e. rigid s&r traders, come in and sell them without evidence the market has distributed their line of shorts. and also big traders who need liquidity to get out first because their position is too large, liquidating all at once will tank the entire market and impact their profit margins will scale out at there half and then liquidate the rest up there, mm steps up to buy them, so pa ended up as a small stick, because many orders transacted there, it may seem like its turning but in fact its in preparation for the big move up, once the selling is satisfied, the move up can begin where there are no orders between that and the previous swing high, and also since there are alot of stops, the move exploded very strongly upwards.

markets can change gears and direction in 2 ways, the slow churning way, and the quick and swift way. so when the move down manifested, and the move up move near the highs, down move was 12 sticks from the pin bar, while it only took 6 sticks for the market to thrust up back to where it was, which means the upside is thinner than the downside, it means the market is 1: either confused, or 2: counter impulse which is the quick and swift and violent way a market changes direction, these are especially difficult terrain to deal with if you are caught out of position.
the length of time and speed at which it takes to move back up swiftly should tell us something is amiss. so after such moves, the market needs time to distribute its line in order for a down wave to manifest which did not happen in the in the wave up, so try to slow down, let price action show you the distribution or accumulation before getting in.

the first move and the flipping were good calls though.

though 1 alternative position to rescue against such strong counter impulse is to employ options, to spread the scout, into a bull call spread and scalp the markets through that, what you essentially do is flip you market view from net short to net long with limited loss, then if the market swings back down, you can swing into a butterfly and then slowly box everything up, though as to how to do this, im still working out the details of how to spread against counter impulse to convert my view to be inline with the markets, but i do know spreading into a bull call spread is the first step, from then on its handling the variations, i.e. managing butterflies, if this can be figured out successfully, it can be incorporated as a level 4 rescue against very sunk books, without having to add too much capital, while simultaneously keeping risk same or lower or a little higher, but this time, you are still near the market so your chances are still good. i find the key to long term profitability is the ability to adapt fluidly to how the market moves.

this however, is just my take on this particular situation.
  • #54,094
  • Mar 12, 2016 8:57am Mar 12, 2016 8:57am
<p>[quote=CookieMonsta;8809883]{quote} Hi, NoDak64, just my take, Draghi transacted there, it may seem like its turning but in fact its in preparation for the big move up, once the selling is satisfied, the move u


Thanks for the response. I especially liked the bit about the calm before the storm. It's hard to find that balance between being to fast to trade or being a deer in the headlights.
  • #54,095
  • Edited 12:26pm Mar 12, 2016 9:33am | Edited 12:26pm
[quote=NoDak64;8810234]<p>
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} It's hard to find that balance between being to fast to trade or being a deer in the headlights.
Picture this.

You are rowing small boat in storm.
When you rowing you not able see the external conditions.
Mostly focus is on what you doing and what you managing.
But if you can find the serene and calm.
You may lift head look and observe conditions and make judgement to find best course of actions.
and keep adjusting to changes that may occur unbias.
But you definately need risk the need find the serene and salm.
Otherwise you keep rowing.
Keep rowing is not wrong action.
But ability find unbias is supreme.

regards

Not even an err is a mistake.
unless one refuses recognise it.
when in doubt, duck for cover, before check for fire.

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  • #54,096
  • Mar 12, 2016 7:19pm Mar 12, 2016 7:19pm
Quoting fti
Quoting NoDak64
<p>{quote} Picture this. You are rowing small boat in storm. When you rowing you not able see the external conditions. Mostly focus is on what you doing and what you managing. But if you can find the serene and calm. You may lift head look and observe conditions and make judgement to find best course of actions. and keep adjusting to changes that may occur unbias. But you definately need risk the need find the serene and salm. Otherwise you keep rowing. Keep rowing is not wrong action. But ability find unbias is supreme. regards
...

Thanks FTI, so during the stormy times (volatile) is time to react, trade "in the zone". Calm time is when to ask "Do i like my position, has the landscape changed"

It feels strange to talk to you because i have been reading thousands of posts of yours and i feel like i know you a little but you have no idea who i am so i would like to share a little.

I am very young, I worked in an oil boom for a while and was able to save a little nest egg, pay off house cars and things, buy kids toys, etc. Trading has always fascinated me. I bought hundreds of thousands of penny stocks at 18, things like that. Havent really had the time nor capital to really immerse myself in it though. Had long talk with my lovely wife about what life we want to have, and decided it is time to pursue dreams. I have sold a second home and arranged to pay bills ahead of time for next 12 months. My plan is to trade London open through at least NY lunch almost every day for next year. London open is 2am my time so should be "burning candle both ends" But is better than going back on the road and being away from family to make money.

My goal is that by 1 year from now I will have confidence up and feel comfortable risking the full allotment i have set aside for trading. (currently trading less than 10% funds)

Is good to talk to you. expect to see much posts from me and hopefully a little progress

regards
  • #54,097
  • Edited 8:55pm Mar 12, 2016 7:24pm | Edited 8:55pm
[quote=NoDak64;8810234]<p>
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi, NoDak64, just my take, Draghi transacted there, it may seem like its turning but in fact its in preparation for the big move up, once the selling is satisfied, the move u Thanks for the response. I especially liked the bit about the calm before the storm. It's hard to find that balance between being to fast to trade or being a deer in the headlights.
true, and that is why it takes quite a while to train and gain proficiency right?
you might be trying to trade too fast though, just slow down, let the market show u the distribution/accumulation after a strong move then go in, i used to make mistakes like this too, till i slowed down and waited for the topping/bottoming out formation and plan my trades from there. thats when i saw my results started improving, and i saw i was attacking more often, and sometimes you will realize that the attack skew can be variated to account for the market's current volatility leg, and possibly change the attack skew of the next level to be twice or more. say your current attack is 1 1 2, if you see the market reacts well, you can go into 1 1 1 3 3 3 instead, in effect you are capitalizing not just on price skewing mechanics but using terrain to maximize attacks while as the market ride, you are going from linear into 2x expansion into sub-linear expansion, so you can alternate between aggressive attacks and trend ride mo while allows you to attack while lagging behind the market significantly, while being able to withstand pullbacks to build more positions safely. and as you attack more, your break even will siginificantly lag behind the current price, which allows strong holding power to slowly observe and see if the ground is advantageous for more attacks or is it time to skew down, and if market impulses further, you can even reset the skew and go into next attack level, and add 12.

scout : 0+1 = 1 , 1 | 1/1 = 1
1+1 = 2 , 1 | 2/1 = 0.5
2+1 = 3 , 3 | 3/3 = 1
3+3 = 6 , 3 | 6/3 = 0.5
6+3 = 9 , 3 | 9/3 = 0.3
9+3 = 12

if market retrace and impulse again, reskew to 12 attack

12+12 = 24, | 12/12 = 1

these are very minute details that come with experience, you will then be able to adjust your position on the fly strategically and reactively and you might just use an initiating skew and then adjust accordingly from there. when attacking, the only thing important is market's feel, my average price and market's average price, the more i lag the market the better since i have holding power and can strategically reskew later if more opportunities show up, just not too lag, since the move might be over and it becomes over skewing of price into disadvantageous terrain.
  • #54,098
  • Edited 5:24am Mar 13, 2016 4:01am | Edited 5:24am
Quoting NoDak64
{quote}{quote} Thanks FTI, so during the stormy times (volatile) is time to react, trade "in the zone". Calm time is when to ask "Do i like my position, has the landscape changed" It feels strange to talk to you because i have been reading thousands of posts of yours and i feel like i know you a little but you have no idea who i am so i would like to share a little. I am very young, I worked in an oil boom for a while and was able to save a little nest egg, pay off house cars and things, buy kids toys, etc. Trading has always fascinated me. I bought...
good.
if this may be of some value to you.
Its important that you divide your portfolio like pro asset managers.
a potion of it in fixed income securities and a portion in risk instruments.
best is your fixed income securitties portion can take care of cost of living for family, so would give you peace of mind to venture.
Your venture risk managing should provide good ROI , and that you should be able withdrawal from to enhance/rebalance your fixed income securities portfolio from time to time, as you had done, while you was building your assets foundation.

There much lessons markets will teach from terrain to terrain, so you must have financial contingencies inbuilt into you risk MO. financial risk contingencies is basically short tenure cash calls when necessary to keep the risk portfolio sufficiently refueled when encountering turbulent terrains.
Turbulent terrain basically is windfall opportunities, where you may like floor your accelerator/throttle-up for quick windfall profits.
Rememeber that turbulent markets when you not injured is opportunities, NOT if you portfolio is injured.
If you injured start licking wounds instead.
Normally the higher the risk factor the greater reward, or bust. Depends on your skills and best done only with foreign capital for longivity.
The short call reserves must only be used as positions capital when requird and never as risk capital.
It also must never be used to rescue bad positions. Never send good money after bad. Never pay margin calls.
Manage bad positions as they are and scale down if necessary keep positions alive. Never enlarge the portfolio when its in trouble.
The enlarging skew should already be inbuilt into active trading MO already with existing venture cap.
If portfolio get in trouble. I repeat, never enlarge with contingencies reserves.
Bigger pot not necessarily get you off the hook.
Mostly if active venture risk gets into trouble. No one have available a big enough pot. unless you have sugar mummy.
If you insist rescue an injured portfolio. ONLY way is minimum recapitalisation 3X base value at risk of investment.
I not seen any one who has impaired their performance by cap redundancy this way.
even i cheat a little.

So be very clear. Position up skewing rescues is only to be practised in active risk portfolio.
For your Networth/wealth Portfolio Is ill adviced. Like i said unless you have sugar mummy.
Problem is individuals hardly have a solid enough asset base to tailor a robust portfolio.
even many financial institutions cuts corners on this. Everyone want most efficient ROI on cap.
when safety takes backseat for performance. Risk of ruin comes to play.
REMEMBER.
Something gains, somethings gotta give.
if you CIO is non issue, only if you are proprietor.



Good Fortune.

regards
  • #54,099
  • Edited 5:24am Mar 13, 2016 5:12am | Edited 5:24am
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  • #54,100
  • Edited 7:29am Mar 13, 2016 6:31am | Edited 7:29am
PS:If i may be so bold to say.

REMEMBER
running a book for a living is like managing a country or organisation.
you need have HR.
You need have smaller pots doing many dissimilar things.
Only impliment the smaller pots MO into the BIG BOOK battlefield, only after seen it work in realtime in many different terrains and over a reasonable period of track record.
All new wrinkles to be introduced for reform of the main system,
1. must be checked for compatibility to existing MO.
2. have sufficient track record of stable growth gradient.
3. If high performance volitility is experienced.Then trouleshooting is necessary to disengage the rogue factor.
4. never introduce SHOCK into book. Sudden change can create disorientation,Worst may damage mindset beyond repairability. Change must create constant and gradual results. AND positive to book.
Is unwise impliment sudden change rule of engagement or water temperature.

For a proprietor, the role of manager and executor may be rolled into one.
Is wise make sure the mind managing the impliment and the mind executing the impliment be china walled and have check and balances. Have unbiasness and neutrality of interest. But can makes 1 person go dualistic or multiple personality disorders.This why i always feel is best have boss who is non performing checking the performance. This reason why having a [good(citation required)] wife is desirable. But i guess not everyone is so lucky.

regards
too many shoes chose wrong pair?
mad man.
I thought after dragging it thru the mud after tee off, it should look same?
Problem was caddy kept cleaning it after every hole.
nevermind, we just wait this becomes trendy lor.
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