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The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,561
  • Mar 10, 2016 10:59am Mar 10, 2016 10:59am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Completely agree with your 2 points. SP500 shorting and TRY/ZAR as primary on currency side. As for 1.17 EU i dont know, from chart i can see 1.14 easily, above that lets see...
Any idea where gbpusd is headed?
  • #139,562
  • Mar 10, 2016 11:31am Mar 10, 2016 11:31am
Quoting Chibaya
{quote} Any idea where gbpusd is headed?
Aligned with EUR up to certain extent, i am not particularly following UK economy/policies though, none of my fundy trades is based on GBP, unless they BREXIT and things get flippery.
  • #139,563
  • Mar 10, 2016 1:09pm Mar 10, 2016 1:09pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} I would say 1,17 is possible with major flash risk-off, which is not impossible!
that would be undoubtful is risk was fueled only by China/oil but brexit/ez risk is gonna join
  • #139,564
  • Mar 10, 2016 1:39pm Mar 10, 2016 1:39pm
Quoting sisse
Europe going for a extended correction after ECB outlook and with BREXIT around the corner.... China out Europe out, Emerging Countries out, OIL is holding on air and 'minutes' are counted after the knee jerk reaction on ECB and FED....
any news prolly bad news now....it's over....the Zombie Apocalypse has begun....JY is helpless and they'll eat her brains just like all the rest....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,565
  • Mar 10, 2016 2:06pm Mar 10, 2016 2:06pm
US equities starting to lose foot at the highs and they wont be able to push any further beyond the current highs. ...

Final update of the ECB day:

--> Changing short term outlook in US equities from Buy to Neutral

Markets look ready to hold on the fumes of ECB until tomorrow. Flat in US equities and actively looking for positioning for the FED - > 1928.xx in S&P

Quoting The Fool
{quote} any news prolly bad news now....it's over....the Zombie Apocalypse has begun....JY is helpless and they'll eat her brains just like all the rest....
...not yet ... FED still in play ...1920/5 naked for a test until then...

Dollar entering in strong support for next week FED. Definitively YEN (UJ) crumbs away from triggering early break out alerts ....and thats the one to track in the currency board till the summer ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,566
  • Mar 10, 2016 2:17pm Mar 10, 2016 2:17pm
btw the price of both eurusd and usdjpy atm are ideal for another "soft" rate hike...the like it happened previously by the FED....

although to be honest personally i dont expect it to happen (at best i expect it in the middle of the year)....i believe its "perfect" for FED to make the second raise and somehow the whole situation was ECB and FED "arranged"

and i base this feeling of what super mario did prior to last time the FED hiked (and the way the whole "hike" thing was "cooked" and delivered)
  • #139,567
  • Mar 10, 2016 2:53pm Mar 10, 2016 2:53pm
Quoting sisse
...not yet ... FED still in play ...
ok, I suppose - what are your outcome scenarios for the Mar FOMC? I remember the Dec bps hike rallied US equities for a day or so (The End of Uncertainty) - but I would hazard a guess that a Mar hike adder will not do the same.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,568
  • Mar 10, 2016 3:04pm Mar 10, 2016 3:04pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ok, I suppose - what are your outcome scenarios for the Mar FOMC? I remember the Dec bps hike rallied US equities for a day or so (The End of Uncertainty) - but I would hazard a guess that a Mar hike adder will not do the same.
TA wise, US equities still have some room available. S&P ref 2021.xx (naked) with max ext 2085.xx (this area is lock right now) which will perfectly align with OIL to 42.5x on OPEC deal confirmation.

On the FA side, the rest of the world maybe collapsing, US election about to enter in full motion but US numbers are UBER solid and strong. A no hike FED will be enough to unlock the current highs until late Spring (Sell in May and go away in play?)

Wont be surprise if the US economy hold the rest of the world in the next couple of months. China is playing the party pooper and as long as they keep printing soft numbers RISK we'll be on the air and equities will be held on check ...

A surprise March hike on the other hand ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,569
  • Mar 10, 2016 4:48pm Mar 10, 2016 4:48pm
Personally I like to analyze the markets more from a political side as private central banking and the enforcement of statue law to force people to accept fiat currency as the only means of legal tender is in my view the driving force of all so called economic news which are under full control of corrupt central bank corporations. I have attached a weekly and a monthly chart to illustrate my subjective and personal analysis of the current EURUSD map. As it is obvious, we are in a previous zone of demand for the EUR currency and as it seems we are in a current zone of temporary accumulation. I do believe that the accumulation period will still linger on for a few more weeks with a test of the current accumulation zone high of around 1.1726 before we pick up some more buyers sligtly below 1.04. This should give us enough fuel for a move to 1.20 before we finally crack the parity zone. I chose the 1,20 zone below the actual distribution zone around 1,25 as in a strong downtrend with supporting fundamentals prices usually reverse prematurely. Fundamentally the breakup of the Euro Zone is in full swing as the fundamentals have been obvious for many years. But this should be taken with a grain of salt as the main problem of central bank corporations issuing fiat currency and creating political and economic events is not dealt with. The Mediterranean Union, which exists since 2008 and has been largely off the mainstream map ever since is waiting for media revival as an answer for the current staged refugee crisis which the Czech Prime Minister correctly stated is a organized invasion of the European continent. After the marketing campaign for the first corporate president of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA will be finished, the media will start the new marketing campaign for Mediterranean Union as THE solution to the European "problem". This will be a manifestation of the replacement of international law of sovereign nations with the UCC commercial code. We are on a very dangerous path indeed but we should not count on the masses discovering human intelligence any time soon. It remains to be seen what currencies we will see after the EU breakup.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Monthly.png Size: 26 KB
  • #139,570
  • Mar 10, 2016 5:26pm Mar 10, 2016 5:26pm
Quoting SirMcPip
We are on a very dangerous path indeed but we should not count on the masses discovering human intelligence any time soon.
...like I said: Zombie Apocalypse, coming for your brains......Brains....BRAINS!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,571
  • Mar 11, 2016 3:10am Mar 11, 2016 3:10am
I would not bet against the SnP making up more than that, given a dovish Mar FOMC and steadily rising oil.....bastards have a chance of making big moves ahead of the next potential shitstorm - the Jun FOMC/Brexit referendum combo - I would not be surprised at all to see spoos 2,150 or better this Spring.


Quoting sisse
{quote} TA wise, US equities still have some room available. S&P ref 2021.xx (naked) with max ext 2085.xx (this area is lock right now) which will perfectly align with OIL to 42.5x on OPEC deal confirmation.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,572
  • Mar 11, 2016 4:08am Mar 11, 2016 4:08am
Quoting SirMcPip
Personally I like to analyze the markets more from a political side as private central banking and the enforcement of statue law to force people to accept fiat currency as the only means of legal tender ...
Good charts, solid TA but the FA arguments are a bit too emotional and 'conspirational' to be useful for trading in my taste.

At the end of the day, the EU is just the sum its parts.

--> In a continent that only 75 of the last +2000 years !!! has not been in permanent war, conflict and each piece of land, settlements, kingdom and only just recently (since the peace in Westphalia) state nations and countries. For Europe descending into tiny crumbs and pulling each other apart on self-interest will only proof the point that Europe hasn't move forward and we are doom to repeat history and expecting different results...

Whatever the case, I kind of agree with you with the CBs view.

--> Since the Swiss privatised its Central Bank (only country in the world) the line between private interest and public policy has been getting thinner and thinner. I am sure, in the next decade or so once we pass this stage of hiperintervention with CBs in Europe as last resource for fighting deflation, in Japan for fighting stagnation, in China for hard landing and in the US for just poor addiction to cheap money ....there will be major changes in the way monetary policy will be delivered in the future ....

Quoting The Fool
I would not bet against the SnP making up more than that, given a dovish Mar FOMC and steadily rising oil.....bastards have a chance of making big moves ahead of the next potential shitstorm - the Jun FOMC/Brexit referendum combo - {quote}
Agree 100%. FED next week will settle the deal for the Spring.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,573
  • Mar 11, 2016 5:44am Mar 11, 2016 5:44am
Very strong european morning with DAX 9480 (for those on this week trade) providing strong support till the FED. More importantly OIL triggering one more time imminent further break up alerts and there is very little (nothing) in between till the $42.xx handle with a break up.

Euro coughing like always before the key 1.128x (FED level in play) on profit taking from the ECB news flow. Expecting US markets to take the driver seat and put a temporary break and set chop zones across the board till the FED.

Not much to see for today. NY with the last word on the open to see if we roll or go to bed till the FED....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,574
  • Mar 11, 2016 6:16am Mar 11, 2016 6:16am
Quoting primejarvis
I don't know why but why I see a test of.08xx is in play... Offcoourse not today ... Please correct me if I m wrong
Two times it tried to test the level .... but failed by a couple of ticks....

Quoting primejarvis
Bought at near 083xx minimum target higher high ... Extension .20xx ... But size is medium ...
still in play ... closed 50% @ .114xx ... rest will be carried out till the extension...

Estimate : fed might be highly dovish with snb, march hike is totally out of scene... nothing to see before fed and other CB data next week....
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,575
  • Mar 11, 2016 6:28am Mar 11, 2016 6:28am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Two times it tried to test the level .... but failed by a couple of ticks.... {quote} still in play ... closed 50% @ .114xx ... rest will be carried out till the extension... Estimate : fed might be highly dovish with snb, march hike is totally out of scene... nothing to see before fed and other CB data next week....
I know its all just guessing what FED will/should/can do.... but..... if we accept that maybe only some probability of DEC hike is priced in for 2016.... I do not see much arguments which would support highly dovish FED..... If they would wanna send dovish messege any hike in 2016 may be priced-out.... and if US economy does not start flopping I do not see that as wise at all given the macros.... so what would be your arguments for highly dovish FED?
  • #139,576
  • Mar 11, 2016 7:21am Mar 11, 2016 7:21am
Quoting sisse
Very strong european morning with DAX 9480 (for those on this week trade) providing strong support till the FED. More importantly OIL triggering one more time imminent further break up alerts and there is very little (nothing) in between till the $42.xx handle with a break up. Euro coughing like always before the key 1.128x (FED level in play) on profit taking from the ECB news flow. Expecting US markets to take the driver seat and put a temporary break and set chop zones across the board till the FED. Not much to see for today. NY with the last...
Can you explain the way you get the 1.128x as a reference, FED level in play? Last FED, 17th February, the market couldn't with the 1.11,5xx.
  • #139,577
  • Mar 11, 2016 7:32am Mar 11, 2016 7:32am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Can you explain the way you get the 1.128x as a reference, FED level in play? Last FED, 17th February, the market couldn't with the 1.11,5xx.
Break for 2015 on FED first hikes expectations in March, better seen visually on March & July 2015 FED rate flops and especially when we took it back on the August rejection when FED confirmed DEC hikes via Yellen 'involuntary (not really) mouth slip' ....

I hope it helps...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,578
  • Mar 11, 2016 7:59am Mar 11, 2016 7:59am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Break for 2015 on FED first hikes expectations in March, better seen visually on March & July 2015 FED rate flops and especially when we took it back on the August rejection when FED confirmed DEC hikes via Yellen 'involuntary (not really) mouth slip' .... I hope it helps... sisse
I was looking last month..nor last year. Yes, it helps, it's another dimension...
  • #139,579
  • Mar 11, 2016 8:55am Mar 11, 2016 8:55am
Quoting chester123
{quote} I know its all just guessing what FED will/should/can do.... but..... if we accept that maybe only some probability of DEC hike is priced in for 2016.... I do not see much arguments which would support highly dovish FED..... If they would wanna send dovish messege any hike in 2016 may be priced-out.... and if US economy does not start flopping I do not see that as wise at all given the macros.... so what would be your arguments for highly dovish FED?
I am not saying that fed is not going to hike or hike gradually(2016) but atleast not in the upcoming week right now i also have a hike in June atleast in my book.... whatever the case the way pa is reacting to all this bullshit thrown by the CB clearly shows the clean path towards a bigger correction in all the boards whether its Equity, oil, or currency.... i personally dont take much interest on oil but coz one way or the other oil has to breath and take some correction/adjustments to get a perfect bottom with (OPEC),

On E/u : if you technically see a very major correction is going on right now.... and sooner or later you will get a very big opportunity to parity...
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,580
  • Edited 9:37am Mar 11, 2016 8:59am | Edited 9:37am
this really is a strange NY open equities and oil failed to take the highs so far even though the fight is huge - may close the upside intraday
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