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  • #139,541
  • Mar 10, 2016 7:39am Mar 10, 2016 7:39am
Quoting sisse
It is a MAJOR BAZOOKA ...the biggest one we have seen ever.... sisse
Absolutely.
  • #139,542
  • Mar 10, 2016 7:43am Mar 10, 2016 7:43am
sisse states:

"Double whammy from ECB as widely expected and markets reacting accordingly...clearing 1.086x target for those holding from last week @ 1.102x (@ IMARICH1 ...a new lesson from the NFP conversation...i hope you let it pan out).

Euro floor extremely feeble and tick below with the conference will send it straight non stop to the lows of the 1.07xx handle."

Yes, I held my position but had lawn seats (not the cheap seats I wanted) @.093x. But, it appears .105X was just a wick. I am holding my position to the .0730 to .0707 level for now. I am not certain we will arrive at the .051X/.046X level until FED delivers. My thoughts are we might look for a retrace from .073X to .097X pre-FED.

But, also have press conference now and NY to digest it all! Thanks for posting here sisse and giving us insight or confirmation into all of this!

Trying to limit posting unless you draw me in to allow better posts and input!
  • #139,543
  • Mar 10, 2016 7:48am Mar 10, 2016 7:48am
Very gloomy outlook from all fronts ....First update from ECB:

Changing short and mid term outlook in European Equities from BUY to SELL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,544
  • Mar 10, 2016 7:52am Mar 10, 2016 7:52am
....last round of questions and we are done...

Second update from the ECB ...

--> Changing mid term outlook in GOLD from neutral to soft sell

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,545
  • Mar 10, 2016 7:59am Mar 10, 2016 7:59am
Europe going for a extended correction after ECB outlook and with BREXIT around the corner....

China out Europe out, Emerging Countries out, OIL is holding on air and 'minutes' are counted after the knee jerk reaction on ECB and FED....

Third update from ECB:

--> Changing short term outlook in OIL from Neutral to Sell

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,546
  • Mar 10, 2016 8:01am Mar 10, 2016 8:01am
Final update on ECB....

---> Changing short term outlook in Euro via risk from Sell to soft Buy.

Couldn't post the map earlier ...1.098x flip for 1.128x ...1,091x for the play with NY...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,547
  • Mar 10, 2016 8:03am Mar 10, 2016 8:03am
Quoting sisse
Final update on ECB.... ---> Changing short term outlook in Euro via risk from Sell to soft Buy. Couldn't post the map earlier ...1.098x flip for 1.128x ...1,091x for the play with NY... sisse
from sell to soft buy? how come?

what did super mario said?
  • #139,548
  • Mar 10, 2016 8:06am Mar 10, 2016 8:06am
sold June BUNDS @ 163
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #139,549
  • Mar 10, 2016 8:10am Mar 10, 2016 8:10am
Looks as if I played this one wrong as well....MY MAP was different........097X-->.0860-->.073X

Looked at the LL @.0820 to test the .073X area with MAJOR BAZOOKA and Double WHAMMY. I was still holding allowing the NEW FLOWS to do what they do. It appears with all the negative, it is creating another extension for EU for a correction. I really was looking for .073X to complete before this correction or retracement.....I was looking for NY to take it to the .073x handle......sigh...........
  • #139,550
  • Mar 10, 2016 8:12am Mar 10, 2016 8:12am
Quoting KGP
{quote} from sell to soft buy? how come? what did super mario said?
read above posts...risk!!!!... here

Quoting sisse
. However, now the real deal start with the conference. Expecting a rather very gloomy outlook both in inflation and forecast from the ECB given the massive bazooka.

A dark outlook will trigger the RISK play so tracking very closely DAX @ 999x.x (CHECK BTW) as we may see a large profit taking (but the rumour/sell the news play we have been trading for over a month).
long term we are going to levels way below 0.98.xx... but thats for later...

Here we go short term ...
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,551
  • Mar 10, 2016 8:16am Mar 10, 2016 8:16am
Quoting sisse
{quote} read above posts...risk!!!!... long term we are going to levels way below 0.98.xx... but thats for later... Here we go short term ... sisse
Excellent prediction, i am just stunned!
  • #139,552
  • Mar 10, 2016 8:20am Mar 10, 2016 8:20am
Quoting sisse
Final update on ECB.... ---> Changing short term outlook in Euro via risk from Sell to soft Buy. Couldn't post the map earlier ...1.098x flip for 1.128x ...1,091x for the play with NY... sisse
You wouldn't hold a short long term?

Edit: On EURUSD I mean
  • #139,553
  • Mar 10, 2016 8:36am Mar 10, 2016 8:36am
Quoting Paradox7
{quote} You wouldn't hold a short long term? Edit: On EURUSD I mean
long term = many months/year(s). would you?
  • #139,554
  • Mar 10, 2016 8:40am Mar 10, 2016 8:40am
Quoting chester123
{quote} long term = many months/year(s). would you?
Well where do you think it is headed right now with the price at 1.104 currently?
  • #139,555
  • Mar 10, 2016 8:42am Mar 10, 2016 8:42am
Quoting Paradox7
{quote} Well where do you think it is headed right now with the price at 1.104 currently?
Look at his posts, 128 as possible test from 98 flip.
  • #139,556
  • Mar 10, 2016 8:44am Mar 10, 2016 8:44am
Quoting Paradox7
{quote} Well where do you think it is headed right now with the price at 1.104 currently?
well, not sure, I dont trade E/U short now because of sisse´s comment on risk off due to macro outlook - awesome how he saw it!!. if u wanna know the direction check his posts - very enlightening and 99,9 % of time correct
  • #139,557
  • Mar 10, 2016 8:45am Mar 10, 2016 8:45am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Look at his posts, 128 as possible test from 98 flip.
So sellers right now are screwed?
  • #139,558
  • Mar 10, 2016 10:03am Mar 10, 2016 10:03am
Quoting Paradox7
{quote} So sellers right now are screwed?
At the short term, yes. Gator even sees levels like 1.17 and 1.2x (I guess mid / long term)
  • #139,559
  • Edited 11:29am Mar 10, 2016 10:35am | Edited 11:29am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} At the short term, yes. Gator even sees levels like 1.17 and 1.2x (I guess mid / long term)
I would say 1,17 is possible with major flash risk-off, which is not impossible!

ECB is cleared - everything as sisse forecasted
=) "buy the rumour, sell the fact" - bet draghi is not happy looking at stocks, E/U, bonds etc. - exept for "buy the rumour, sell the fact" I think it gives us something more = the policy action was super mega over the expectations!! - however, the macro outlook is terrible - definitivelly raises more serious question if ECB is even capable of reaching the mandate and what are the limits.... and whether the recent tools are really working - kind of credibility question.

The still unclear part is FED and Oil - but if there is no major sell-off in equities pre-FED I expect FED to be neutral/slightly hawkish; on OIL (have clue just from sisse) - we would need some news to support the price - so far today only negative news coming about no OPEC meeting in march.

But basically it seems that if FED gives it a go (neutral/hawk) - we enter the risky-time-era (short/mid term) with china and brexit and generally global growth slack (ECB did not save us from this given its outlook) - the equities are gonna go down short/mid term(previous lows minimun, the whole recent short term rally in DAX and SP500 seemed as a dead cat bounce anyway); E/U is untradable mid term down for now cuz its gonna be carried by the risk-off up; if oil crashes =) only exagarates the problem for equities and E/U respectivelly!

Recently Ive been thinking that the easiest trades are gonna be:
1. equities - given the risk off, oil, china or another round of hikes (we need FED (+ oil ideally) to confirm for SP500 as its still holding, DAX is cleared - entered short today)
2. commodity currencies - they get hammered by risk, by china, by commodity route, by FED hikes = I think they have one more mid term leg down - either with FED hikes or major risk-off with china collapse (or both!) and their CBs can give a hand too.

= well its much more complex given the variabilities and we could talk about concrete short/mid term swing - but these are just the general ideas.

P.S.: would you agree sisse? I mean its basically what you say! But still.... it helps me to get it in context if I write it down/repeat it
  • #139,560
  • Mar 10, 2016 10:54am Mar 10, 2016 10:54am
Quoting chester123
{quote} I would say 1,17 is possible with major flash risk-off, which is not impossible! ECB is cleared - everything as sisse forecasted =) "buy the rumour, sell the fact" - bet draghi is not happy looking at stocks, E/U, bonds etc. - exept for "buy the rumour, sell the fact" I think it gives us something more = the policy action was super mega over the expectations!! - however, the macro outlook is terrible - definitivelly raises more serious question if ECB is even capable of reaching the mandate and what are the limits.... and whether...
Completely agree with your 2 points. SP500 shorting and TRY/ZAR as primary on currency side. As for 1.17 EU i dont know, from chart i can see 1.14 easily, above that lets see...
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