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  • #2,221
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:24am Mar 9, 2016 9:24am
Quoting Rurozan
{quote} It's turned long before even testing the trendline, may attempt later. I can't really follow along anymore.
Same here man. I went from 5% account loss to profit in 24 hours. I know there are people with nerves of steel here, but I'm spent.
I know I have much to learn but today Im proud of myself not to close on loss and give in to fear.
Positive SL, personal success here, so I deserve pizza.

Thanks for all your support guys!
  • #2,222
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:02am Mar 9, 2016 10:02am
Ok, now when the bunch of old kids with attention deficit disorder have left to interrupt other trends, can we come back to normal trading life here, 'cause until it happens I don't think Geppy will be back. If I remember correct (I was sick with flu the whole week). he said he will be looking at the hourly chart of gbpjpy to go long when the price will be in the vicinity of 160-160.50 and supported by SMA(50). That's what we have right now.

Good luck trading, and, please, behave! I am long enough on FF to see an unique value in advice that all of us are getting here, and, believe me, it doesn't happen often. Lietuve
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  • #2,223
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:14am Mar 9, 2016 10:14am
Quoting lietuve
If I remember correct (I was sick with flu the whole week). he said he will be looking at the hourly chart of gbpjpy to go long when the price will be in the vicinity of 160-160.50 and supported by SMA(50). That's what we have right now.
I don't know if he still feels that way.
Quoting Geppy
I'm flat GBP/JPY (and everything for that matter). The picture is very unclear. Smaller TFs seem to say short while 4-hour is undecided. I'm going into hibernation until this thread gets a grip on itself.
  • #2,224
  • Mar 9, 2016 12:13pm Mar 9, 2016 12:13pm
Possible trading opportunity developing on EURJPY
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  • #2,225
  • Mar 9, 2016 12:32pm Mar 9, 2016 12:32pm
Guess i won't be visiting Timbuktu anytime soon

The initial retrace was a bit deeper than i thought but going well anyways.
A really nice D1 BEOB forming too so after another retrace there should be another solid move south over the next day or 2.
More analysis with chart after day is complete and we're in to the "Asian Chop."
Bill
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  • #2,226
  • Mar 9, 2016 12:51pm Mar 9, 2016 12:51pm
Alright.
Thing I'm looking at now is EU.
W1 looks like the price has re-tested and respected a strong area, that stopped and supported bears and bulls in the past (area marked in blue dashed lines)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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D1 shows how the price respected the trend line, as well as 200 and 50 MA.
Last bearish candle shows long exhaustion wick.
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This wick is important because when we drill to H4
We can see the same wick in last bearish candle, that tells how violent was the rejection.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I would wait till the Oscilators reach overbuy on H4, and head for a nice R/R Short, with a stop marked by yellow SL line.
What do you guys think?
  • #2,227
  • Mar 9, 2016 1:16pm Mar 9, 2016 1:16pm
Quoting Rurozan
{quote} I don't know if he still feels that way. {quote}






​Of course he was flat, that quote is from 24 or 28 hours ago! The conditions were outlined in the weekly outlook and until they are met all you can do is wait. Once, and if the condition is met - you do act according to the plan. In the meantime, if you are smart and want to learn how to fish, you study these conditions and learn how to read the market. Unfortunately... all I see now is a chorus of small egos screaming "I did, I think, I do... " what use of it? Lietuve
  • #2,228
  • Mar 9, 2016 1:26pm Mar 9, 2016 1:26pm
Quoting lietuve
{quote} In the meantime, if you are smart and want to learn how to fish, you study these conditions and learn how to read the market. Unfortunately... all I see now is a chorus of small egos screaming "I did, I think, I do... " what use of it? Lietuve
Egos? Right now the only ego I'm feeling is from you. I don't even know who it was aimed at but the first sentence of your first post I read today was insulting. Just when I think that sort of thing had left the room.

"I did, I think, I do" is exactly what a place like this is for. You share your thoughts and ideas, right or wrong. It brings discussion. This helps others learn.
You have 11 years here, good for you. Not all of us know how to be self-sufficient yet.
Why should we not keep the ideas going while Geppy is out?
  • #2,229
  • Mar 9, 2016 2:07pm Mar 9, 2016 2:07pm
Quoting SulikFXer
Alright. Thing I'm looking at now is EU. W1 looks like the price has re-tested and respected a strong area, that stopped and supported bears and bulls in the past (area marked in blue dashed lines) {image} D1 shows how the price respected the trend line, as well as 200 and 50 MA. Last bearish candle shows long exhaustion wick. {image} This wick is important because when we drill to H4 We can see the same wick in last bearish candle, that tells how violent was the rejection. {image} I would wait till the Oscilators reach overbuy on H4, and head for...
I'm partial to the short side because i have 2 open shorts. I had 3 but one got stopped for a slight gain. Both of the current open shorts have been reduced to free trades.

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Just keep in mind that if price goes up and doesn't stop or if it goes up and stops, then your oscillator will reach over bought and give you your sell signal. If you're confident in your analysis then just sell at a price that makes the amount you'd like to risk and potential gain acceptable.
  • #2,230
  • Mar 9, 2016 3:58pm Mar 9, 2016 3:58pm
Quoting SulikFXer
Alright. Thing I'm looking at now is EU. W1 looks like the price has re-tested and respected a strong area, that stopped and supported bears and bulls in the past (area marked in blue dashed lines) {image} D1 shows how the price respected the trend line, as well as 200 and 50 MA. Last bearish candle shows long exhaustion wick. {image} This wick is important because when we drill to H4 We can see the same wick in last bearish candle, that tells how violent was the rejection. {image} I would wait till the Oscilators reach overbuy on H4, and head for...
For what it's worth, my analysis is: Don't touch E/U at all. It really could go either way... or nowhere at all!
Think of it as a teenager - at the moment it is aimlessly wondering around with no conviction or clear direction, playing around with your head and generally causing grief to most (no offense to any teenagers here, we've all been there )

I am waiting for it to confidently move up and clear the 1.105x area OR the other way and clear the 1.08x area. The only thing that could change my thinking is a huge PA bar on the D1 or W1 in the coming days.

I have no idea if ANY of my analysis helps anyone but there you go
Bill
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  • #2,231
  • Mar 9, 2016 4:05pm Mar 9, 2016 4:05pm
Quoting Bill618
Guess i won't be visiting Timbuktu anytime soon The initial retrace was a bit deeper than i thought but going well anyways. A really nice D1 BEOB forming too so after another retrace there should be another solid move south over the next day or 2. More analysis with chart after day is complete and we're in to the "Asian Chop." Bill {image}
Haha. Journey on hold .
  • #2,232
  • Mar 9, 2016 4:06pm Mar 9, 2016 4:06pm
Quoting Rurozan
{quote} Egos? Right now the only ego I'm feeling is from you. I don't even know who it was aimed at but the first sentence of your first post I read today was insulting. Just when I think that sort of thing had left the room. "I did, I think, I do" is exactly what a place like this is for. You share your thoughts and ideas, right or wrong. It brings discussion. This helps others learn. You have 11 years here, good for you. Not all of us know how to be self-sufficient yet. Why should we not keep the ideas going while Geppy is out?
Well said.
  • #2,233
  • Mar 9, 2016 4:28pm Mar 9, 2016 4:28pm
I really wish that this thread come to life again, and be a gateway to better trading skills.
  • #2,234
  • Mar 9, 2016 5:08pm Mar 9, 2016 5:08pm
EURUSD on a total reset state since, well, more than one year, can't stand any more watching this pair.
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  • #2,235
  • Mar 9, 2016 5:16pm Mar 9, 2016 5:16pm
Quoting Bill618
More analysis with chart after day is complete and we're in to the "Asian Chop." Bill {image}
Here's my take on U/C from here.
Price will retrace upward to the first gold line where i will be looking for a short order, based on PA at this area.
I don't know if price will retrace to the 2nd gold line, or somewhere in-between, but going on the deep retrace yesterday it could very well do but i have my doubts (famous last words).
From there price should move down to the 1.32 - 1.312 area where i will re-evaluate based on the then current PA.
I will be looking to short at least twice on it's way down.
See how she goes...
Happy Trading
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  • #2,236
  • Mar 9, 2016 5:59pm Mar 9, 2016 5:59pm
the dollar/yen is marching up pretty strongly now. i think this move will continue to be strong . BOJ announcement next week will probably keep it being bid up. i think tomorrow the ECB will expand its QE program which should give the dollar some strength which will give dollar yen more of a push higher especially since equities will like move QE money to fuel stocks. i have my take profit set at 118 for now but im sure ill lower it, but you never know the boj could try another right now to prop up / devalue the yen. theirs also talk of their sales tax increase being delayed AGAIN and that seems like its assured right now unless they go absolutely nuts an tie QE to nominal gdp growth.

only thing im not happy with right now is i havent added anything on to this trade yet but i did get a pretty good position set. in hindsight i should have added as soon as hourly closed above the trendline and made a new high on the next candle. if anyone has any good tips on how they add to positions feel free to share. this move has gone straight up for the last 12 hours.
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  • #2,237
  • Mar 9, 2016 7:17pm Mar 9, 2016 7:17pm
Quoting Bill618
{quote} Here's my take on U/C from here. Price will retrace upward to the first gold line where i will be looking for a short order, based on PA at this area. I don't know if price will retrace to the 2nd gold line, or somewhere in-between, but going on the deep retrace yesterday it could very well do but i have my doubts (famous last words). From there price should move down to the 1.32 - 1.312 area where i will re-evaluate based on the then current PA. I will be looking to short at least twice on it's way down. See how she goes... Happy Trading...
Hi Bill:

Looking for my USDCAD Shorts in that 1.33361 - 1.33486 Zone.

Let's see if it gets there, as the Market does whatever it wants

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Cheers.
  • #2,238
  • Mar 9, 2016 7:31pm Mar 9, 2016 7:31pm
Quoting krismitt
{quote} Hi Bill: Looking for my USDCAD Shorts in that 1.33361 - 1.33486 Zone. Let's see if it gets there, as the Market does whatever it wants {image} Cheers.
Yeah you could be spot on mate.
1.33250 - 1.33300 is my guess-timate which is preeeety much the middle of my 2 gold lines.
  • #2,239
  • Mar 9, 2016 7:46pm Mar 9, 2016 7:46pm
Quoting Bill618
{quote} Yeah you could be spot on mate. 1.33250 - 1.33300 is my guess-timate which is preeeety much the middle of my 2 gold lines.
...hence my golden box !

  • #2,240
  • Mar 9, 2016 7:53pm Mar 9, 2016 7:53pm
Quoting Forex147
{quote} We cannot confirm that the up move is over, although I believe it went south opposite to what most of us expected. GJ just tested the .38 filo of the up move . Technically GJ is still in uptrend as long as the TL is intact. It lies near the 50 % fibo 159, 158-80 area. My advise for non aggressive traders to stand aside and wait till the picture is more clear.
Is the Dragon poised to continue the upmove???
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At the start of the week, and as mentioned on Geppy's report, most of us were either long or waiting to get long on the 160.xx area which happened and Prices went up but couldn't go break 38 fibo and went down fast. Most of us were couldn't believe all the fortune made on the way up was vanished and the market shook our belief in Long GJ.
As the hourly chart attached , GJ retraced to the 200 MA above the awaited trend line and then the train left the station heading North.
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