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Flag trading the trend

  • #10,721
  • Mar 9, 2016 8:30am Mar 9, 2016 8:30am
Quoting Divergence
If you average 50 ticks a day (sometimes more sometimes less) but overall average that's 200 ticks per week trading 3 lots put annual around 150 a year
Alright, H, if you insist, I'll squeeze by on $150k...

dd - an apparently wise trader once said to me that you can make a great living trading just taking triple top breakouts, which I think is what you were referring to above (ie. say for a long, double top typically holds, retraces, then triple top breaks).

S&R over & over again...

Edit : btw, dd, if you can hit those 10+ pt trades - and you seem to - then I would DEFINITELY do that.

RR takes care of itself...
  • #10,722
  • Mar 9, 2016 8:38am Mar 9, 2016 8:38am
Chart getting simpler - a good sign imho - but also faster, which is not, especially in view of the ES discussion above :

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  • #10,723
  • Mar 9, 2016 8:54am Mar 9, 2016 8:54am
16 short +1
Become the casino
  • #10,724
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:09am Mar 9, 2016 9:09am
Quoting jtrade
{quote} btw, dd, if you can hit those 10+ pt trades - and you seem to - then I would DEFINITELY do that. RR takes care of itself...
So far four trades and each ended with a a +1 tick stop out. So I am not opposed to scalping as a means of capital preservation lol
  • #10,725
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:10am Mar 9, 2016 9:10am
So are we waiting for CL inventories before they get this party started or what?
  • #10,726
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:11am Mar 9, 2016 9:11am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} So far four trades and each ended with a a +1 tick stop out. So I am not opposed to scalping as a means of capital preservation lol
number 1 rule in trading protect capital
  • #10,727
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:13am Mar 9, 2016 9:13am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} So far four trades and each ended with a a +1 tick stop out. So I am not opposed to scalping as a means of capital preservation lol
Four trades already ? YM or ES ?
  • #10,728
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:21am Mar 9, 2016 9:21am
Quoting moonmist
{quote} Four trades already ? YM or ES ?
ES - 5 trades now, all +1 tick. That is what happens when in a consolidation. If I am right, price should move quickly away, so I get my stop loss to +1 very quickly. Of course today is the day that I was up +3 points on two of them so I could be +6 points and done for the day. But I decided that I want to go for the 10+ point swings.

This is not a typical opening hour for me by any means.
  • #10,729
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:24am Mar 9, 2016 9:24am
Here is the M5 ES this far ... looks like a bull flag to me. Price filled the gap back to yesterday's close, and the Nasdaq's did a gap fill double bottom. So right now, I am 70% expecting a rally to start around 10:30AM.

But I will trade either direction depending upon the set up and the signal and the noise.

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  • #10,730
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:29am Mar 9, 2016 9:29am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} No, you certainly don't. Unless someone is scalping for just a handful (or less) of ticks, it would seem that 3 contracts is the "making a living" size. This assumes that one averages at least $100/day per contract and that one can live on $75KUS per year. The thing with the ES is that most days it has at least one if not two moves that are worth 10 or more points (40 ticks or $500 per contract). These often commence by means of one of four repeating patters: double top/double bottom or wedge top/wedge bottom (usually with three tests or...
As someone who's been making a living trading futures for some years now...I would say your intuition is correct. At least it was for me. It becomes less stressful to see -1, -2 pt trades sprinkled in with +20's, than to see -1,+2,+2,-1, etc. If your entry spot is logical, shoot for the moon - new high/low with stubborness. Otherwise you were wrong for a small loss, and no big deal. Most traders can't accomplish that because they are afraid of that small loss.

/slow sideways day ugh
  • #10,731
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:36am Mar 9, 2016 9:36am
Quoting qwerty00
{quote} As someone who's been making a living trading futures for some years now...I would say your intuition is correct. At least it was for me. It becomes less stressful to see -1, -2 pt trades sprinkled in with +20's, than to see -1,+2,+2,-1, etc. If your entry spot is logical, shoot for the moon - new high/low with stubborness. Otherwise you were wrong for a small loss, and no big deal. Most traders can't accomplish that because they are afraid of that small loss. /slow sideways day ugh
Thanks qwerty - I appreciate your input.
  • #10,732
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:44am Mar 9, 2016 9:44am
If you're bull flag, you set up a rally, or a least a test of the most recent intraday high .... it's what you do.

Oh ... and sometimes the move out of the flag fails. But it sets up a situation where you risk a small loss, or even a breakeven or breakeven +1 situation but your potential reward is 10 to 20 points (and on rare occasion even more).



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  • #10,733
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:45am Mar 9, 2016 9:45am
Quoting qwerty00
{quote} Most traders can't accomplish that because they are afraid of that small loss.
Some fear the small loss. But also, so many fear "giving back" their small open profit and so do not hold for the potential large profit.
  • #10,734
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:52am Mar 9, 2016 9:52am
I decided to play the double top for 10 points

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  • #10,735
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:53am Mar 9, 2016 9:53am
Quoting ddaytrader
I decided to play the double top for 10 points {image}
A better look ...

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  • #10,736
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:58am Mar 9, 2016 9:58am
Target filled. So here is the Beauty and the Beast: I made a bunch of +1 tick trades in that choppy mess, and then 10 points on the Double Top.
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  • #10,737
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:03am Mar 9, 2016 10:03am
Quoting ddaytrader
Target filled. So here is the Beauty and the Beast: I made a bunch of +1 tick trades in that choppy mess, and then 10 points on the Double Top. {image}
This seems to be an imperfect double top on the five-minute chart.
  • #10,738
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:03am Mar 9, 2016 10:03am
Quoting moonmist
{quote} This seems to be an imperfect double top on the five-minute chart.
How so?
  • #10,739
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:07am Mar 9, 2016 10:07am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Some fear the small loss. But also, so many fear "giving back" their small open profit and so do not hold for the potential large profit.
It's not profit until you exit. The exit is the name-of-the-game for a reason. I've had +14's turn into +1's etc. It doesn't matter because of expectancy. I've never met a career trader who had daily goals - they all had weekly/monthly/quarterly. Can you deal with a bad week of mon:-1 t:-3 w:-1 th:-2 fri:+15 ?
  • #10,740
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:13am Mar 9, 2016 10:13am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} How so?
I cannot find a second high at 1991 on your chart or on my five-minute chart. I assume your chart only shows the bars during regular trading session ?
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