AUDUSD Trading Pit | Page 17 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

AUDUSD/AUDCHF/NZDJPY basket trading using 50 sma and 200 sma 16 replies

Pit Traders - How Do We Classify Their Trading Style? 6 replies

M Schwartz: Pit Bull ebook - How can I get it? 13 replies

Candlestick Chart Analysis - AUDUSD & USDCAD 1 reply

Attachments: AUDUSD Trading Pit
Exit Attachments

AUDUSD Trading Pit

  • #321
  • Mar 8, 2016 6:56pm Mar 8, 2016 6:56pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} actually i am pretty scared looking at the daily and weekly when started taking shorts, i was taking into consideration worst possible scenarios, which are happening. so i can hold these shorts until couple of hundred pips more but if we go higher 74, i will start getting out of lower positions. current average position is 7355
Curious as to your current average position?

I'm guessing you are doing better than me as my average now = your average from 4 days ago (7355!) (ranging from 7209 to 7476)

My average is hurt somewhat as I use smaller pullbacks (approx 50 and 100 pips) to close a non highest position for small profits until I can make bigger profits on bigger pullback or reversal. Unfortunately there hasn't been a 100 pip pullback yet.

I like that the march upward has at least temporarily ceased and your analysis (separate post) about new range 7410 to 7485.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #322
  • Mar 8, 2016 6:59pm Mar 8, 2016 6:59pm
Quoting tashkent
talking about martingale i remembered this: {image}
Also curious, is martingale a random entry method or other?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #323
  • Mar 8, 2016 7:35pm Mar 8, 2016 7:35pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Curious as to your current average position? I'm guessing you are doing better than me as my average now = your average from 4 days ago (7355!) (ranging from 7209 to 7476) My average is hurt somewhat as I use smaller pullbacks (approx 50 and 100 pips) to close a non highest position for small profits until I can make bigger profits on bigger pullback or reversal. Unfortunately there hasn't been a 100 pip pullback yet. I like that the march upward has at least temporarily ceased and your analysis (separate post) about new range 7410 to 7485....
first of all, i appreciate your contributions in aud threads and i do follow your posts. you are one of few who openly discuss your live trades, so kudos to you bro.
as i have posted earlier, i do not hold my positions too long during strong trends when trading against the short term trend. most of my positions closed at loss because i refused to close them when in profit hoping for reversal. all previously posted charts are my evidence that they were taken at higher high and were in profit at bounces.
on the other side, as an US trader, i do not have luxury of hedging, so used my sub account to long aud from around 73 to cover some costs. right now i am net short aud across the board including audjpy. audusd net short position is currently 7414 - this is after closing shorts from yesterday's high and getting out of one lower short from 7370 and then adding 2 shorts today.
this is how it looks right now (the horizontal dot line is my average position most of the time). i am almost at break even. currently i am losing on audusd overall. if we reach about 73 with just holding current position, i should break even and recover all losses. but i am planning to add more to make this overall break even about 7350. these are just plans. everything will depend on how things will play out.
meanwhile, we should not forget this has been a heck of bull run and it still may gain strength.
my belief is aud will crash eventually and china will have the most impact. unfortunately we do not know when it will happen and until then bull may slaughter lots of bears. i hope i am wrong with this. trade safe buddy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture.png Size: 16 KB
As Above, So Below
  • #324
  • Mar 8, 2016 8:03pm Mar 8, 2016 8:03pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Also curious, is martingale a random entry method or other?
i doubt his entries are random. apparently the trader manages 7 digit account and had a great success in the past. you can check my profile, i am subscribed to him. you can see all his trades, entries, exits, etc.
even though it may look like martingale, my audusd are not of that type, i call them positional trades. when i do use martingale, i prefer to do it "the FTI method", which is called rescue sequence. when i realize my position is in loss i wait for deeper higher high (if short) or deeper lower low (if long) and then attack with at greater size and if failure can be applied another sequence. this usually helps to get out of overall position with be. it is basically rescuing plan not to make profit. if does not work, then out with slightly bigger lose but the chances are lower.
people hate martingale but it definitely can be utilized with a proper discipline.
As Above, So Below
  • #325
  • Mar 8, 2016 8:04pm Mar 8, 2016 8:04pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} i hear what you say bro. we have 3 types of people in FF: 1) bullshitters (wannabe professionals, self proclaimed gurus, advisers, teachers - they never ever tell you anything about their real trades, positions they are holding. they never ever have anything to prove their bias. in one word, they are prostitutes) -they are about %20 2) lurkers (with the greatest probability, most of them will never ever make any contribution to anything, in one word, they are parasites who feed on productivity of others) - about %75 3) traders (these are...
nice categorization
  • #326
  • Mar 8, 2016 8:06pm Mar 8, 2016 8:06pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} first of all, i appreciate your contributions in aud threads and i do follow your posts. you are one of few who openly discuss your live trades, so kudos to you bro. as i have posted earlier, i do not hold my positions too long during strong trends when trading against the short term trend. most of my positions closed at loss because i refused to close them when in profit hoping for reversal. all previously posted charts are my evidence that they were taken at higher high and were in profit at bounces. on the other side, as an US trader,...
Thanks, you too!

I'm currently watching the 7410 support with much interest - hoping it's broken!

Whilst I can see A/U going higher before a larger pullback I struggle to see the bull run gaining strength (but that's more semantics based on how strong it already has been.)

I'm a big believer in history repeats and it's not often the daily rsi stays overbought for long so expect sooner rather than later that there will be 150+ pullback if not a reversal. Either way I am doing my best to stay patient, follow my plan and hold for profits without getting greedy and not allowing for further pain.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #327
  • Mar 8, 2016 8:12pm Mar 8, 2016 8:12pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} we need to survive until the show starts audjpy is also building a good short setup - possible triple top {image}
and i took this trade, late but still wanted to share in case if it goes up again, there might be opportunity to get into train
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture.png Size: 23 KB
As Above, So Below
  • #328
  • Mar 8, 2016 8:25pm Mar 8, 2016 8:25pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} i doubt his entries are random. apparently the trader manages 7 digit account and had a great success in the past. you can check my profile, i am subscribed to him. you can see all his trades, entries, exits, etc. even though it may look like martingale, my audusd are not of that type, i call them positional trades. when i do use martingale, i prefer to do it "the FTI method", which is called rescue sequence. when i realize my position is in loss i wait for deeper higher high (if short) or deeper lower low (if long) and then attack with...
Thanks, I've only had a very brief look at the account in question. Nothing jumped out at me as being martingale eg 54.6% win rate seems very low for martingale??
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #329
  • Mar 8, 2016 8:26pm Mar 8, 2016 8:26pm
Quoting alayinizAMK
{quote} nice categorization
i know i was too rude
anyway, i gotta finish couple of "the game of thrones" episodes, talk to you later
As Above, So Below
  • #330
  • Mar 8, 2016 8:35pm Mar 8, 2016 8:35pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Thanks, I've only had a very brief look at the account in question. Nothing jumped out at me as being martingale eg 54.6% win rate seems very low for martingale??
yes, but anything that adds to losing trades can be considered as martingale. however i guess he uses it as i do: getting out of some risky positions but later adding when thinks conditions are favorable. hope he will get out of the trouble at least with break even. as far as i can see, he is mostly long on uc and uj (and some audusd shorts). not sure about uj but uc may offer some really nice bounce. i am also holding some longs.
As Above, So Below
  • #331
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:52am Mar 9, 2016 11:52am
Quoting stulic
7520 tonight perhaps any shorts below are suicide I reckon. Kinda said see ya at 75 two weeks ago. See what happens but that's where I'd go south too.
Took a while but 7527 sell limit filled. SL 7567 TP's 7420 7370... 6950
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1d.png Size: 29 KB
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #332
  • Mar 9, 2016 12:15pm Mar 9, 2016 12:15pm
Quoting stulic
{quote} Took a while but 7527 sell limit filled. SL 7567 TP's 7420 7370... 6950 {image}
that looks like a very good spot for short. i am also planning to take a short here. currently have one short order limit filled at 7452. closed the out everything yesterday around 7420 (actually took 2 longs after clearing all positions but tp on longs too early)
congrats to bulls, excellent run!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture.png Size: 53 KB
As Above, So Below
  • #333
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:01pm Mar 9, 2016 10:01pm
Would like to sell more around 7495, initial trade at BE now, anything above 7530 is further up.
On pullbacks up will buy double around 100h EMA for at least 35-40 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1e.png Size: 43 KB
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #334
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:27pm Mar 9, 2016 10:27pm
2) lurkers (with the greatest probability, most of them will never ever make any contribution to anything, in one word, they are parasites who feed on productivity of others) - about %75

I am a lurker but not exactly a parasite as I've never used the info on the forum to trade as yet. I would like to convert to a trader. I have a question, what technical tools do you use to predict that this pair is going to 0.75xx with such confidence?
  • #335
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:27pm Mar 9, 2016 11:27pm
Quoting Chibaya
2) lurkers (with the greatest probability, most of them will never ever make any contribution to anything, in one word, they are parasites who feed on productivity of others) - about %75 I am a lurker but not exactly a parasite as I've never used the info on the forum to trade as yet. I would like to convert to a trader. I have a question, what technical tools do you use to predict that this pair is going to 0.75xx with such confidence?
I was just waiting for the 50 fib from last year 8160 high and end of August 6900 low. 7530 area also proved very strong last year so yeah, whatever tool there is to use to bolster your bias...
I go by fundamentals, only need techs to pick an entry or exit, fundamental bias is all what matters to me, this pair is bearish to me for the next 2-3 years to go and I'll trade it like that, not withstanding corrections, there's plenty of opportunity to cash in.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #336
  • Mar 10, 2016 12:22am Mar 10, 2016 12:22am
Quoting stulic
{quote} I was just waiting for the 50 fib from last year 8160 high and end of August 6900 low. 7530 area also proved very strong last year so yeah, whatever tool there is to use to bolster your bias... I go by fundamentals, only need techs to pick an entry or exit, fundamental bias is all what matters to me, this pair is bearish to me for the next 2-3 years to go and I'll trade it like that, not withstanding corrections, there's plenty of opportunity to cash in.
Good point about the 7530 area (I can see it on weekly chart) but your response about 50% fib illustrates what confuses me about fibs - selection of points. Why choose 6900 Aug low as opposed to 6828 low from Jan (which would give a 50% fib around 7494)? Not a huge diff between 7530 and 7494 but in other instances there could be.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #337
  • Edited 7:59am Mar 10, 2016 3:02am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting Chibaya
2) lurkers (with the greatest probability, most of them will never ever make any contribution to anything, in one word, they are parasites who feed on productivity of others) - about %75 I am a lurker but not exactly a parasite as I've never used the info on the forum to trade as yet. I would like to convert to a trader. I have a question, what technical tools do you use to predict that this pair is going to 0.75xx with such confidence?
Feel free to scroll back a few pages on this and the other AUD / USD thread where I posted my trade entries and analysis off the weekly timeframe targeting this area. COT data at the time also supported the long trade.

In my opinion 'top down' analysis off the Weekly timeframes is where to begin - this is what the 'big players' reference so why not ride their coat tails?

Drop down to the daily / 4 hour timeframes for fine tuning entries - perhaps the 1 hour at a push.

Unless you are an 'Algo' scalper with institutional execution anything below the 1 hour is a mugs game (in my opinion) and chasing a few pips here and there is hardly 'living the dream'.

Try to keep your leverage low - 1:1 / 1:2 - at a push 1:3...Anything beyond that and your gearing is getting a bit out of kilter.
  • #338
  • Mar 10, 2016 6:07am Mar 10, 2016 6:07am
Quoting dab
{quote} Good point about the 7530 area (I can see it on weekly chart) but your response about 50% fib illustrates what confuses me about fibs - selection of points. Why choose 6900 Aug low as opposed to 6828 low from Jan (which would give a 50% fib around 7494)? Not a huge diff between 7530 and 7494 but in other instances there could be.
True that, just didn't draw one, and from experience know that holiday period levels aren't respected as much long term due to low volume and higher volatility, especially between October-February and June-August periods.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #339
  • Mar 10, 2016 8:04am Mar 10, 2016 8:04am
Quoting Chibaya
2) lurkers (with the greatest probability, most of them will never ever make any contribution to anything, in one word, they are parasites who feed on productivity of others) - about %75 I am a lurker but not exactly a parasite as I've never used the info on the forum to trade as yet. I would like to convert to a trader. I have a question, what technical tools do you use to predict that this pair is going to 0.75xx with such confidence?
Hey Chibaya, please do not take any personal offense on that comment. it was just my general observation. some people are too lazy to do the work themselves and look for easy ways to get what they want. they are reading all this and they know who they are. hope they will visit here less after reading this.
As Above, So Below
  • #340
  • Mar 10, 2016 8:28am Mar 10, 2016 8:28am
Quoting Chibaya
2) I have a question, what technical tools do you use to predict that this pair is going to 0.75xx with such confidence?
not sure if this was addressed to me but i will share with my general thoughts.
i always used to think predicting or having bias is bad. one of favorite quotes was BL's "be water my friend...". excellent words but...
But our life is based on bias, assumptions, doubts, beliefs etc. Belief is just the strongest form of Bias. nothing else.
financial markets are almost like living creatures by themselves. they are made of countless components like any creature is made of chemical elements. Nobody will ever can predict how this creature will behave with great precision and all we can to is analyze the situation at best, conclude, create bias and trade the bias.
in my opinion having bias is GOOD, turning it to belief is BAD. doubt is good, confidence is not. we need to be careful with our beliefs and level of confidence (of which the highest form is vanity - remember movie devil's advocate)
now, all technical tools people use are just to strengthen the bias they have OR an attempt to create a bias upon those tools. i do not see any other purpose of using tech tools, indicators, fibs, ma's etc.
i am content with price action analysis, break out levels, try to figure out what in people's mind, where price rallied or where stalled, how positive or negative news being reacted, how the correlated pairs behaving, etc. etc, etc.
As Above, So Below
1 trader viewing now